PortalPlayer Inc. (PLAY)
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PLAY Forum Topics
- All Comments on PLAY
- General Discussion on PLAY
- Microsoft SideShow -- iPod Killer? (MSFT, AAPL) [view article]
- Microsoft's iPod Killer Emerges -- Should Apple be Scared? You Bet! (AAPL, MSFT) [view article]
- Two Compelling 'Cash Hoard' Stocks [view article]
- Chart: Digital Logic Semiconductor Manufacturers - Gross Profit Margins [view article]
- Trailing 12 Month P/E for Portable Media Player Companies [view article]
- Why Is PortalPlayer's Valuation So Much Lower Than Apple's? (PLAY, AAPL) [view article]
- PortalPlayer CEO on Windows Vista's No-boot Display and Functionality (PLAY, MSFT) [view article]
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- Component Makers Who Won Placement In The New iPod Nano
- Is The PortalPlayer-Microsoft Relationship Deepening?
- PortalPlayer Trying to Reinvent Itself After Losing its iPod Socket Deal
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- Full List of Articles »
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Editors
General Discussion on PLAY
Is this a buy or a sell? Replylark
Microsoft's iPod Killer Emerges -- Should Apple be Scared? You Bet! (AAPL, MSFT) [view article]
That seems like a good idea. But what would be better is a deck that would take any mp3 player (I know wake up cuz I'm dreaming).Over all, with all the Alpine products I have in my truck (ipod hookup, tv receiver, gps navigation) I'm pleased with their products
www.ipodconverter.com Reply
Two Compelling 'Cash Hoard' Stocks [view article]
Why do you feel PLAY is worth $24 per share when they don't have the Apple business anymore? When it was providing the SOC chips to AAPL it could barely support itself stock wise and picking up incremental business from SanDisk and Creative Technologies won't do much to make up for that loss.They also rely on just one type of SoC platform that's really targeted towards PMPs. They are going into the cell phone business and there are rumors about Zune picking them up since PLAY's SoC will be in SideShow but the impact of all this is extremely difficulty to quantify. I'm not sure I believe Vista is going to spawn some notebook computer explosion where laptops equipped with sideshow devices will be flying off the shelf. I don't see a lot of differentiation between what SideShow devices can do relative to the next-gen handhelds which can synch to your computer as it is. PLAY's SoC costs more and is a higher end product which is fine but I think as PLAY goes downstream into other devices they'll run up against guys like SGTL and Action Semi that can price them out.
Nonetheless, the cash balance should give you some safety but tech cos can be notorious from going through cash flow to cash burn. Also, the forward estimates are not that attractive, PLAY is really selling for at least 30x next year's EPS. Reply
Two Compelling 'Cash Hoard' Stocks [view article]
i think argueing with past EPS is not smart.just have a look at analysts estimates for 2007.
CRYP: +1.21
PLAY: +0.25
both companies see their business shrinking dramatically, but costs remain.
the price targets cannot be justified on this basis.
both picks are just bets that something big might happen (CRYP being bought, PLAY huge customer win).
til then i see no reason for these stocks to outperform. Reply
Sernick
Microsoft's iPod Killer Emerges -- Should Apple be Scared? You Bet! (AAPL, MSFT) [view article]
feelingbullish.com/sto... ReplyMicrosoft's iPod Killer Emerges -- Should Apple be Scared? You Bet! (AAPL, MSFT) [view article]
For the final word on the topic, let's consult a site with vastly greater credibility than the author of the article above:www.crazyapplerumors.c.../ Reply
Microsoft's iPod Killer Emerges -- Should Apple be Scared? You Bet! (AAPL, MSFT) [view article]
Apple clearly has high levels of creativity. Microsoft? Hardly. Considering their size and the amount of money they invest in R&D, their creativity level is pathetic. The overwhelming majority of what they produce is a weak copy of someone else's product. Heck, look at this entire article. They're trying to copy the iPod 6 or 7 years after it came out. Other than grossly illegal business practices, Microsoft has never been known for innovation. ReplyMicrosoft's iPod Killer Emerges -- Should Apple be Scared? You Bet! (AAPL, MSFT) [view article]
Nice straw man. Who ever claimed that iPods were the only MP3 players out there?As for 'vicious', does the fact that we like to see analysts post REAL information rather than their delusions make us vicious in your mind? If so, I feel very sorry for you. Reply
Bertoni
Microsoft's iPod Killer Emerges -- Should Apple be Scared? You Bet! (AAPL, MSFT) [view article]
Vicious? Hardly. As far as being "pro-AAPL," that's going a bit too far. The subject has been limited to digital media products and eco-systems, and the premise of the analysis that prompted these responses -- that Apple Computer is about to face a serious challenge from Microsoft's alleged "iPod killer."Edgar, whatever your humble opinion might be (and it didn't sound very humble to me), vast fortunes have been made in consumer electronics -- and whether or not they remain profitable in the "long run" has more to do with whether a company can (1) transition to new products as technology leaps forward; (2) have a great design sense; and (2) offer something so unique that the public doesn't jump ship when the first competitor offers something slimmer or shinier. What's funny about the iPod is that Apple seems to winning decidedly on all three counts, even though its only real advantage is in (3).
On (1), Apple's transition to new technologies isn't always the fastest, but I've learned from Apple's experience that speed isn't everything -- nor is equipping a consumer device with every bauble a good thing. Onboard radio (satellite or otherwise) is a good example. Apple realized that picking up a radio transmission for music is second-best to making your own radio station--which is what made the iPod attractive in the first place. From the outset, it could hold a huge library in a small (and increasingly smaller) package, and it had all the tools the user needed to program his or her personal station. When you have that, why would you want to introduce poorer quality, advertising laden, soundtracks designed by some media conglomerate owned radio station? Just ask yourself if, when driving, you'd rather listen to FM radio or your own MP3 CD or an iPod. I think the answer's easy -- radio comes in a distant third as a far as music is concerned. Now, talk radio is another matter altogether, but Apple creatively solved that problem with Podcasts ... which are now offered by virtually every popular radio (and sometimes television) talk show.
On (2), it is strikingly funny -- and ironic -- that none of Apple's competitors seem capable of producing an industrial design that comes even close to the iPod. Not even Sony. Walk up to the music player counter at any store and everything else looks bigger, clunkier, more complicated, or just plain uglier than the iPod. Why? I think it's because most technology companies (and Microsoft is a huge example) are run by engineers with little or no design sense, or for whom the design department lies at the bottom of the food chain. They seem to think that squeezing in an extra gigabyte of memory is more important than the package that holds it. And so, Apple wins out on design, an area where it, by all rights, ought to have no monopoly at all. I haven't seen a shred of evidence that Microsoft is even capable of understanding the terms of this battle, let alone winning it.
Of course, (3) is the area where Apple does hold a distinct and perhaps unique advantage. It is useful to compare the situation to Sony's Walkman. For a time, Sony's Walkman dominated the portable music scene. The were stylish to begin with (relatively speaking), got smaller and more elegant over time, and added features relatively slowly. Technology, of course, kept the feature set small. Sounds a lot like the iPod, in fact. But, what Sony didn't have is the music eco-system. Thought of in terms of the late-1970's and 1980's, in order to replicate Apple's system, Sony would have to have had its grip on (a) the furniture where we stored our record albums and tapes (the equivalent of the iTunes library); (b) the cables that connect turntables and tape players to the Walkman (the equivalent, it seems, of the iTunes digital pipe to the iPod); (c) tools for easily and comprehensively deciding, on the fly, what songs will reside on the Walkman; and (d) a record store in every house make it incredibly easy to add to your growing library. As for the last point, commentators often fixate on how consumers like choice and shouldn't be shoe-horned into an audio format that can't be used on other players. The problem with this analysis is that the marketplace shows that, for many consumers, there is no real choice in terms of other music players. They don't like them and aren't buying them. Yes, it gives Apple an additional bulwark against competition, but I think it's a very small one. Most iPod owners have relatively few iTunes store purchases in their libraries. Let's look at the numbers: About 1 billion songs sold as of early 2006 versus a total of about 42 million iPods sold (these numbers weren't released simultaneously, so they could be off): just 23 songs per iPod. And if you factor in a bit of common sense -- that rapid Apple partisans likely have the biggest libaries of purchased songs -- the number 23 likely drops even more for the consumers who might be converted to a competitor.
I have grave doubts about Microsoft being able to take a decisive lead on (1). It can't even get Office and Vista together on time. I have even graver doubts about Microsoft getting its act together on (2). And, as far as (3) is concerned, the odds are even worse for the Redmond giant.
Edgar, you're very quick to call people dimwitted -- as if anyone who posted here agrees with your strawman observation and "seem thing [sic] think iPods are the only players out there." That's silly. And to call the "masses" who buy iPods "dimwitted" -- well, very few successful businesses hold their customers in such low regard. And while you can't sell 42 million iPods without some of them being sold to people less intelligent than you, Edgar, my guess is that quite a few of them are at least as smart as you. And that's the beauty, in the end, of the iPod. It's easy enough for anyone to run the iPod/iTunes eco-system to cater to their every musical need. And that appeals to plenty of "smart" people, too. Reply
Microsoft's iPod Killer Emerges -- Should Apple be Scared? You Bet! (AAPL, MSFT) [view article]
I hope I am not "vicious". I prefer "particular" or "having high standards".I agree with you-- I don't like the iPod business LONG TERM. But, remember-- something like 300 M Sony Walman got sold in the 80's. I don't expect AAPL to become "the iPod company", but I think it will continue to be a good sideline for another 2-5 years. Reply
Microsoft's iPod Killer Emerges -- Should Apple be Scared? You Bet! (AAPL, MSFT) [view article]
wow. These Pro-AAPL people can be pretty vicious. In my humble opinion, consumer electronics is not a profitable place to be in the long term. Whatever marketing, technology aggregating, and design genius AAPL has benefitted from will be eroded. Two things to rely on: legal bariers (e.g. patents, government supported monopolies, etc.) and undeniably favorable markets (e.g. commodities). It doesn't matter if MSFT will make money out of this...All that matters is that they are getting into it. And it's goign to hurt everyone. For all the people that seem thing think iPods are the only players out there, you're about as dimwitted as the masses these iPods caters to. ReplyMicrosoft's iPod Killer Emerges -- Should Apple be Scared? You Bet! (AAPL, MSFT) [view article]
"The only thing MSFT has ever entered successfully & “sucked” out profit from is Operating Systems & Office"Disagree. Remember the browsers wars? MSFT made no money THEMSELVES, but they made it impossible for NETSCAPE to monetize browser clients. Firefox, derived from open source code based on Netscape, is excellent and feature-rich. But I don't think it makes anyone any money.
Internet Explorer, today, is like something from a Sam Raimi movie, that died long, long ago but keeps crawling up out of its grave looking more-and-more maggot-ridden.
As for your other note about subscription services: I have a "nano". It's got, like 500 meg of Podcasts on it. It has less than 5 meg of purchased music. I have NO IDEA if my usage is typical, but I use my Pod more like an time-shifted internet radio than as a front end to a music store. I wonder if someone knows how much music from the iTunes music store gets bought by the typical individual iPod user? Reply
Microsoft's iPod Killer Emerges -- Should Apple be Scared? You Bet! (AAPL, MSFT) [view article]
Microsoft's pervasiveness may enable it to challenge Apple more seriously than past attempts, but I don't see any way its package could be profitable. Admittedly, media downloads themselves have tiny margins - this isn't only Apple's "secret" - leaving hardware as the only potential profit source.But how will a Microsoft player compete with the iPod on pricing? With millions of iPods being shipped per quarter, AAPL has a huge volume advantage that MSFT lacks. If the Microsoft player sells at a loss then what's the point? Its not like the Xbox, where game sales can generate significant revenue.
My intuition tells me that MSFT will try to package their player with a few extra bells and whistles, but for a higher price than an iPod of comparable capacity. I'm not sure this would work in the long run. Reply
Microsoft's iPod Killer Emerges -- Should Apple be Scared? You Bet! (AAPL, MSFT) [view article]
"Microsoft has a pattern of entering a business and sucking the profit opportunity out of it by incorporating it as part of its platform. Why should entertainment infrastructure be any different?"The only thing MSFT has ever entered successfully & "sucked" out profit from is Operating Systems & Office. Otherwise the company is a deadbeat. Their efforts have been fruitless in 1) Internet Search 2) Video Gaming (Sony sales still kill the xbox!) & the third one will be MP3 players.
MSFT can add all the goodies it wants, from WiFi to big screens, in the end they will either price it to high, thus killing demand or price low enough to take a loss on each sale (think Xbox!). I can gurantee you that the player will not have the smoothness of the iPod or the ease of use. Reply