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The PowerShares 1-30 Laddered Treasury Portfolio (Fund) is based on the Ryan/Mergent 1-30 Year Treasury Laddered Index (Index). The Fund will normally invest at least 90% of its total assets in securities that comprise the Index. The Index measures the potential returns of the U.S. Treasury yield curve based on approximately 30 equally weighted U.S. Treasury issues with fixed coupons, scheduled to mature in a proportional, annual laddered structure. The Portfolio does not participate in Treasury Bills, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), or zero-coupon securities (STRIPS).
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Country: United States
Wednesday, Dec 182:22 PM
Wednesday, Dec 182:22 PM| 5 Comments
- "The Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions ... as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy," the FOMC says, adding that the decision to scale back QE by $10B per month is based on "the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions."
- Although the Committee says it will "likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps [should] incoming information support [the] ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward [the] longer-run objective," the Fed notes that asset purchases are "not on a set course."
- FOMC also says it "anticipates .. that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6.5%."
- Updated FOMC projections: 2014 PCE inflation now seen at 1.4-1.6% (from 1.3-1.8% in September); 2014 GDP now seen at 2.8-3.2% (from 2.9-3.1% in September); 2014 unemployment rate now seen at 6.3-6.6% (from 6.4-6.8% in September). Full release
- 10-year yield is at 2.91% versus 2.87% just prior to the announcement.
- Dow (DIA +0.9%), S&P (SPY +0.6%), and Nasdaq (QQQ) all staged brief rallies on the news but have since retraced a bit. Gold (GLD +0.3%) fell sharply initially but recovered.
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TIP, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TTT, TMF, VTIP, TLH, IPE, ZROZ, SBND, IEI, SCHP, DLBS, TYO, LTPZ, DTYS, STPZ, STPP, VGLT, TIPZ, UST, BIL, SHV, STIP, PLW, GOVT, FLAT, UBT, TBX, TLO, VGSH, VGIT, RINF, GSY, DTYL, LBND, SCHR, SCHO, TYD, ITE, TYBS, TPS, TRSY, TENZ, DTUL, TDTT, TUZ, SST, INFL, DTUS, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVL, FINF, UINF, DLBL, DEFL, DFVS, TIPX, TDTF, TYNS, SINF
Thursday, Dec 126:53 PM
Thursday, Dec 126:53 PM| 26 Comments
- The U.S. House overwhelmingly approves (332-94) a two-year budget framework spearheaded by Paul Ryan and Patty Murray that would remove the threat of a shutdown during the period. The eye-to-eye across the aisle comes as somewhat of a surprise and a rarity amid the rancor that has gripped budget battles in the past 2 years.
- John Boehner noted that the measure amounted to a small step toward the GOP's goal of deficit reduction: "Is it perfect? Does it go far enough? No, not at all," he said, while urging colleagues to support the plan. Democrat Chris Van Hollen: a "small positive step forward."
- The deal now goes to a Democratic Senate, which is expected to sign off as early as next week.
- Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TIP, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TTT, TMF, VTIP, IPE, TLH, ZROZ, SBND, IEI, SCHP, DLBS, TYO, LTPZ, DTYS, STPZ, VGLT, TIPZ, UST, BIL, SHV, STIP, PLW, GOVT, UBT, TBX, TLO, VGSH, VGIT, RINF, DTYL, GSY, LBND, SCHR, TYD, SCHO, ITE, TYBS, TPS, TRSY, TENZ, INFL, SST, DTUL, TDTT, TUZ, FIVZ, DTUS, TBZ, FINF, DFVL, UINF, DEFL, DLBL, DFVS, TDTF, TIPX, TYNS, SINF
Monday, Oct 2112:56 PM
Monday, Oct 2112:56 PM| 10 Comments
- Short Treasurys for much of the year, Caxton went to neutral as soon as Larry Summers dropped out of the race for Fed chief, and is now long across the curve, says the hedge fund's chief Andrew Law. "For whatever reason," the U.S. economy has been unable to "reach escape velocity ... tapering is off the table for the foreseeable future." He notes GDP growth has averaged 2.2% over the last four quarters with zero rates and massive QE. Why would growth accelerate now? He believes the Fed looked at the same thing at its last meeting and realized it couldn't taper.
- "There are no incentives for the corporate world to go out and spend – that, and housing, are critical ... The Fed is very clearly now seeking to lower interest rates."
- On Europe, it's better, but he's not overly excited. He's keeping an eye on the euro (FXE) and expects $1.40 to be the line at which the ECB responds both verbally and maybe with a cut in rates. "The marketplace has spent the last 4 years trying to sell the euro and not quite understanding why it hasn’t collapsed to the teens… maybe now (longs) will have their moment."
- Japan: Caxton cashed in on the yen devaluation and big stock rally earlier this year, and remains moderately bullish.
- U.K.: There is no housing bubble. The country needs another 100K new homes per year. "My forecast would be that the BoE is not worrying too much about the housing market."
- Law took over from Bruce Kovner at Caxton in 2008.
- Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX, TRSY, PLW, GOVT.
- Euro ETFs: FXE, ERO, ULE, URR, EUO, DRR, EUFX.
Tuesday, Sep 104:35 PM
Tuesday, Sep 104:35 PM| 3 Comments
- "What If?" is the title of Jeff Gundlach's (DBL, DSL) latest webcast presentation.
- Reviewing his boner of a call that Treasury rates had topped out about 70 basis points ago, Gundlach says he never thought the Fed would walk away from QE. Instead the Fed has chosen to do just that in favor of what Gundlach calls a "seat of the pants policy" that he feels is a big mistake.
- The total return loss in bonds during this selloff is nearly identical 1993/94 carnage, he notes. While not expecting a fast rally in bond prices, Gundlach does feel the selling is about done.
- Broad fixed-income ETFs: AGG, BND, LAG, SCHZ, BOND, SAGG, MINC.
- Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX, TRSY, PLW, GOVT.
Monday, Aug 193:57 AM
Monday, Aug 193:57 AM| 4 Comments
- Outflows from U.S. bond mutual funds and ETFs have risen to $19.7B in August from $14.8B in July, TrimTabs says, making this month's figure so far the fourth-highest on record.
- Since the beginning of June, $103.5B has left bond funds, or 2.7% of total assets.
- The sell-off in bonds, which has been prompted by fears of Fed tapering, has sent Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year hitting 2.871% today, the highest for just over two years.
- "We are concerned that the Fed is starting to lose control of the bond market, which is not good news for the stock market or the highly leveraged U.S. economy," TrimTabs said
- Related ETFs: AGG, BND, LAG, SCHZ, BOND, SAGG, MINC, TRSY, PLW, GOVT, TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX, SHY, SHV, IEI, BIL, TUZ, FIVZ, DTUL, VGSH, DTUS, DFVS, DFVL, SST, ISTB, TBZ, TIP, STIP, LTPZ, STPZ, TIPZ, SCHP, IPE, TPS, TDTT, TDTF, RINF, FINF, INFL, DEFL, UINF, SINF, VTIP, TIPX, STPP, FLAT
Friday, Aug 168:24 AM
Friday, Aug 168:24 AM| Comment!
- Yesterday's sharp dive in stocks offered a bit of respite to Treasury prices, but as calm again takes hold this morning, price are back to heading south (yields north). The 10-year is up 2 bps to 2.79%.
- Housing starts data at 8:30 might confirm what have been anecdotal reports of the real estate sector being dinged by the higher rates.
- Treasury ETFs: TRSY, PLW, GOVT, TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX,SHY, SHV, IEI, BIL, TUZ, FIVZ, DTUL, VGSH, DTUS, DFVS, DFVL, SST, ISTB, TBZ.
Tuesday, Aug 138:38 AM
Tuesday, Aug 138:38 AM| 1 Comment
- Already lower in morning action, bond prices take no comfort from core retail sales rising 0.5% in July - the fastest gain thus far in 2013.
- TLT -1.3% premarket, with its leveraged bear counterpart TBT +2.4%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is up 9 bps to 2.69%.
- Other longer-term Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
- Broad Treasury ETFs: TRSY, PLW, GOVT.
- Stock index futures give up some gains, the S&P 500 +0.2%.
Monday, Jul 13:50 AMA record $79.8B was pulled from exchange-traded and mutual bond funds in June, TrimTabs estimates, with the number almost double the $41B that was withdrawn at the peak of the financial crisis in October 2008. Mutual funds lost $70.8B and ETFs $9B in June - Pimco (the ETF version is BOND) shed 2.8% from its net asset value - amid fears of Fed tapering. The stampede out could continue when the quarterly statements come in and show people what they've lost. |Monday, Jul 13:50 AM| Comment!
Sunday, Jun 302:10 AMCentral banks sold a record $32.4B in U.S. Treasurys (SHY) in the week to June 26 - taking their holdings to $2.93T - for the third weekly outflow in the past four weeks. Meanwhile, bond funds tracked by data provider EPFR Global experienced total redemptions of $23.3B last week. The numbers provide some color to the sharp rise in Treasury yields since Ben Bernanke first signaled the Fed would start tapering QE. |Sunday, Jun 302:10 AM| 2 Comments
Sunday, Mar 174:06 AMThe Treasury is investigating whether investors are accumulating government bonds in order to boost prices after $78.87B worth of 10-year notes used as collateral in repo market weren't returned to the loan counter-party on Monday. Over the week, the cost of borrowing Treasurys for use in the repo market or for short sales jumped more than three-fold, only easing after a government auction. |Sunday, Mar 174:06 AM| 3 Comments
Wednesday, Jan 24:47 AMThe amount of debt that the G7 and four of the BRIC nations will need to refinance this year will fall by $220B to $7.38T, Bloomberg calculates, although the amount the U.S. will have to cover will increase to $2.9T from $2.6T. Overall government debt returned 4.5% on average last year, led by a 78% gain on Greek bonds. However, yields on major sovereign debt are expected to remain low. |Wednesday, Jan 24:47 AM| Comment!
Monday, Aug 202012, 4:51 AMThe gap between bank deposits and loans is rising at the quickest pace in two years, coming in at $1.75T on August 8, when deposits stood at $8.87T and lending $7.12T. The gap is well above the $100B average in the 10 years before credit markets started breaking down. Banks are using the money to snap up U.S. debt, buying $136.4B worth this year, more than twice the $62.6B for all of 2011. It's unsustainable, says an analyst. |Monday, Aug 202012, 4:51 AM| Comment!
Monday, Jun 252012, 5:49 AMBunds are losing some of their safe haven status, as investors wonder whether Germany can continue to bear the burden of backstopping the eurozone crisis. U.S. Treasurys are likely to benefit, as few other havens remain; Switzerland and Japan are trying to deter investors to keep their currencies from appreciating, while Denmark and its northern neighbors aren't large enough to be true havens. |Monday, Jun 252012, 5:49 AM| 2 Comments
Wednesday, Jun 132012, 3:14 AM
Tuesday, May 12012, 7:48 AM"Not suddenly, but over time, gradually higher rates of inflation should be the result of QE policies and (endless ZIRP)," writes Bill Gross, the bond man turning goldbug (?) as he urges a higher allocation to real assets as a way to combat this. Gross also recommends shortish-duration fixed income as well as stocks offering 3-4% yields. |Tuesday, May 12012, 7:48 AM| 3 Comments
Tuesday, Apr 172012, 5:05 PMIt's all about the debt, writes the crack team of Hoisington and Hunt, and the extent to which the U.S. accumulation of such has been put to use unproductively has them maintaining their bullish Treasury stance. Might the debt be inflated away? Not likely. "The increase in interest rates associated with higher inflation would be one for one ... To start down this road ... would be foolish, impractical, and improbable." |Tuesday, Apr 172012, 5:05 PM| 12 Comments