Thu, Apr. 30, 3:15 PM
- A big rise in interest rates early in the session made for a good excuse to sell REITs, but - with the averages sharply lower - rates have reversed course. Still, the sector can't catch a bid, with many of the bigger names down way more than the broader market.
- Equity REITs: Realty Income (O -2.3%), Health Care REIT (HCN -3.2%), Ventas (VTR -3.2%), HCP (HCP -3.1%), Equity Residential (EQR -2.6%), Silver Bay Realty (SBY -2.5%), General Growth Properties (GGP -2.4%), Retail Opportunity (ROIC -3.9%), Boston Properties (BXP -2.4%), Hospitality Properties (HPT -2.9%)
- Mortgage REITs: Armour Residential (ARR -5.6%) - which reported another weak quarter overnight, Two Harbors (TWO -1.1%), Western Asset (WMC -1.3%), Arlington Asset (AI -2.8%), PennyMac (PMT -1.5%). When things get tough, money does have a tendency to flow into the sector giants though: Annaly Capital (NLY -0.4%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.3%) are notable outperformers on the session.
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, REZ, SCHH, ICF, SRS, RWR, KBWY, DRV, REK, FRI, FTY, PSR, FREL, WREI
Tue, Mar. 3, 8:05 AM
- Altisource Portfolio Solutions' (NASDAQ:ASPS) contract is with Ocwen (NYSE:OCN), not with the servicing, writes the Sterne team, and it thus loses every time Ocwen shrinks or sells assets.
- The winners? Those would be the asset buyers: New Residential (NYSE:NRZ) and PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE:PMT).
- The analysts write their note the morning after Ocwen Financial announced more MSR sales, and the hiring of advisors to explore strategic options. The team is suspending Ocwen EPS estimates for 2015 and 2016 "since we have no idea what the new Ocwen will look like." Sterne's best estimate of tangible book value is about $10 per share.
- Previously: Ocwen volatile after business updates (March 2)
- OCN +5.4%, to $9 in premarket action. ASPS +2.6%
Wed, Feb. 4, 5:35 PM
Wed, Feb. 4, 5:08 PM
- Q4 net investment income of $53.1M vs. $106.5M in Q3, with net gain on investments of $11.2M vs. $70.4M. Net income of $26.5M vs. $54.9M. EPS of $0.34 vs. $0.69. Dividend is $0.61.
- Book value per share of $21.18 vs. $21.42 at end of Q3.
- Investment Activities segment $11M pretax income on revenue of $38.8M vs. $55.1M and $86.4M in Q3.
- Distressed Mortgage Investments segment realized and unrealized gains of $20.7M vs. $81.3M in Q3. Portfolios of performing and nonperforming loans increased in value somewhat, but was more than offset by decrease in home prices and tempered expectations for the future.
- Mortgage servicing rights portfolio grew to $34.3B in UPB from $32.3B.
- Correspondent Production Segment pretax income of $900K vs. $2.8M in Q3, with revenue of $14.2M down 29%.
- Conference call is underway
- Previously: PennyMac Mortgage NII of $53.1M (Feb. 4)
- PMT -5.1% after hours
Mon, Feb. 2, 2:52 PM
- "The combination of a negative duration and relatively long dated hedges lead to book value underperformance in a flat curve environment," merits a downgrade to Underperfrom for Armour Residential (ARR -5.9%), says analyst Doug Harter.
- "With above-average economic return volatility we expect CYS Investments (CYS -2.8%) to continue to have one of the lower price to book multiples among the Agency-only REITs," he says, also cutting to Underperform.
- Tight credit spreads combining with low yields will make it tough for New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -2.2%) to meaningfully expand core EPS enough to cover the dividend, says Harter, cutting that stock to Underperform. He also notes NYMT has the highest price-to-book ratio in his mREIT coverage universe.
- Harter and team, however, still see some attractive values given the 12.9% discount to book the sector is selling for. PennyMac Mortgage Investment (PMT +0.2%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.7%) and New Residential (NRZ -1.6%) remain among top picks (though PMT and especially NRZ can hardly be considered mREITs).
- Previously: Credit Suisse downgrades three mortgage REITs (Feb. 2)
- Previously: JPMorgan previews Q4 for mREITs (Feb. 2)
Sep. 2, 2014, 2:26 PM
- REITs and other so-called "shadow bankers" for the last several years have used captive insurers to join Federal Home Loan Banks, thus getting access to more dependable financing and better terms than they otherwise could.
- The FHFA for some time has voiced its concern over the practice, and under new rules just proposed, would sunset those existing memberships over a five year period.
- ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
- Two Harbors (TWO -1.8%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -1.9%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -1.2%), Dynex Capital (DX -1.1%), PennyMac Mortgage (PMT -1.5%), Annaly Capital (NLY -0.8%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.3%).
Aug. 7, 2014, 9:50 AM
- Q2 net investment income of $120.6M up 57% from Q1.
- Book value per share of $21.27 up from $20.88. Current price is $22.02.
- Investment Activities segment $70.9M of pretax income up from $33.1M in Q1.
- Distressed Mortgage Investments generated realized and unrealized gains of $73.6M, up from $39.9M.
- Mortgage Servicing Rights portfolio of $29.4B up from $27.3B. Net loan servicing revenue of $8.8M up from $7.4M.
- Correspondent Production segment pretax income of $2.4M down from $3.1M. Company acquired $7B in UPB of loans through its correspondent activities during quarter.
- Conference call at 10:30 ET
- Previously: PennyMac Mortgage beats by $0.34
- PMT +4.1%
May. 8, 2014, 9:10 AM
- Citing lower production and profitability in the correspondent channel and management's indication of current conditions in distressed loans being less attractive and below targeted returns, analyst Joel Houck pulls his Outperform rating on PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT).
- Shares -1.4% premarket
- Previously: PennyMac Mortgage lower after slide in earnings
May. 7, 2014, 10:22 PM
- Net income of $37.9M or $0.50 per share is off 28% from Q4 on net investment income of $76.6M off 20%. Dividend of $0.59 per share.
- Book value per share of $20.88 up from $20.82 at the end of the 2013 after payment of dividend.
- CEO Stan Kurland: "The reduction in earnings for Q1 was driven by reduced income in PMT's correspondent lending business and lower gains in the distressed whole loan portfolio."
- Investment activities segment: $33.1M in pretax income on revenue of $64.3M vs. $48.4M and $78M in Q4. Net gain on investments of $42.6M off 11%. Net interest income of $19.6M is lower by $2.9M. Net loan servicing fees of $7.4M fell from $12.2M.
- Distressed mortgage investments: Distressed mortgage loan portfolio gains of $39.9M down from $50.6M. Company acquired $436M UPB of nonperforming whole loans and REO in Q1; has another $41M UPB under agreement and expected to settle in Q2.
- Correspondent lending segment: Pretax income of $3.1M falls from $6.3M on revenue of $12.3M, off 32%.
- Source: Press Release
- Previously: PennyMac Mortgage misses by $0.14
- PMT -3.7% AH
Feb. 7, 2014, 12:55 PM
- Looking golden at the moment is Compass Point's Kevin Barker, who stepped into yesterday's major decline in the specialty servicers with an upgrade to Ocwen Financial (OCN +3.9%). The decline was sparked by a story - later confirmed by Ocwen - that Ben Lawsky's NY Dept. of Financial Services had blocked Ocwen's purchase of MSR's from Wells Fargo.
- If Lawsky's concern is Ocwen's ability to properly service a massive influx of new loans, this isn't an issue, says Barker as the company can take steps to ensure compliance. If Lawsky is upset about Ocwen's current servicing practices, that's a more complicated issue, but Barker doesn't believe this to be so.
- He's got a price target of $60 assuming the Wells deal gets done and Ocwen continues buying MSRs, and utilizes free cash flow for stock repurchases or an accretive acquisition.
- Down 14% at one point yesterday, Ocwen is back to near where it was before the news hit. Also bouncing back are Nationstar (NSM +8.3%) and Walter Investment (WAC +3.1%).
- Others of interest: PennyMac Mortgage (PMT +0.7%), New Residential (NRZ +1.2%).
Feb. 4, 2014, 11:51 AM
- Addressing an analyst cadre somewhat uncomfortable with American Capital's (AGNC +1.6%) new policy of purchasing the common stock of its agency mREIT competitors (Wells' Joel Houck: Do you know their hedging strategies? What happens when one blows up?), CIO Gary Kain says the discounts to asset value are so great as to mitigate much of the risk.
- Kain does acknowledge some risks though, and reminds that the purchase program is but a small slice of AGNC's overall portfolio ($400M of others' stock bought so far vs. nearly $600M of AGNC buybacks just in Q4).
- For now, there won't be any disclosure of which names American Capital is buying - a position also not sitting well with those on the call. Should the positions get large enough though, regulatory filings might be required.
- Kain also reminds that AGNC isn't just boosting risk with these purchases - instead it's selling MBS at 100 cents on the dollar to buy them back (via other mREITs) at somewhere in the area of 80 cents on the dollar.
- Most of the mREIT sector (REM +0.7%) is ahead again today - Armour (ARR +0.9%), CYS (CYS +2.8%), Hatteras (HTS +1.6%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +0.6%), PennyMac (PMT +1.2%) - but Annaly (NLY -0.6%) lags, perhaps as investors feel it was far more conservatively positioned going into 2014 than AGNC was.
- Earnings call is still ongoing
- Previous coverage
Nov. 7, 2013, 10:32 AM
- PennyMac Mortgage Investment (PMT -5.9%) slumps after a weak Q3 in which correspondent lending revenues fell to $18.9M, a 63% decline from Q2. Gain on sale on mortgages fell to $11M from $44.4M. The pretax loss in correspondent lending of $300K compared to $28.1 of income in Q2.
- Q3 earnings presentation slides.
- The company was able to deploy $350M in capital, acquiring 2 pools of nonperforming loans with $930M in UPB, completing a $550.5M jumbo loan securitization, and completing its initial investment in excess MSRs acquired by PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI -0.2%) which also reported weak mortgage results last night.
Sep. 18, 2013, 9:16 AM
- Newcastle Investment (NCT) spinoff New Residential (NRZ) soars 6.9% premarket after declaring its first full quarterly dividend of $0.175 per share for a 10.95% yield (based on last night's close).
- Nearly 11% is a whopper of a yield considering peers like Redwood (RWT), HLSS, and Pennymac (PMT) are in the 5-10% range.
Aug. 21, 2013, 12:05 PM
- The big picture view says better entry points are coming soon - perhaps after the taper actually begins (September?) and a new Fed chief is announced (October?).
- The team's favorite names are those associated with the sector that really aren't mREITs, but instead have more-specialized business models: Newcastle Investment (NCT +0.5%), its spinoff New Residential (NRZ +1.8%), and PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT -0.1%).
- In the security-focused names, top picks are Two Harbors (TWO -0.8%) and Ellington Financial (EFC +0.1%), and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE).
- Thus far in Q3, CS sees sector book values off 4% amid a 40 bp increase in rates. The good news is credit spreads haven't continued to widen, but a coming taper announcement could blow them out again.
- Sector ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL.
- Earlier: Two Harbors gets an upgrade.
Aug. 14, 2013, 9:02 AM| 3 Comments
Aug. 13, 2013, 4:09 PM
PMT vs. ETF Alternatives
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust investing in residential mortgage loans and mortgage-related assets.The Company operates in two segments: correspondent production and investment activities.
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