Jan. 15, 2014, 5:30 PM
Jan. 7, 2014, 2:47 PM
- Fairly lukewarm on the large cap regional banking sector (KRE +0.7%) amid pricey valuations and the likelihood 2014 estimates are set to be trimmed after Q4 earnings reports, Citi's Keith Horowitz does have a favorite ...
- BB&T Corporation (BBT +1.4%) deserves a premium multiple, says Horowitz, thanks to its above-average returns and quality of the management team.
- The rest? Wells Fargo (WFC -0.1%) is likely to beat Q4 estimates due to lower expenses (the bank has been busy cutting mortgage staff), but Horowitz is Neutral on the name. U.S. Bancorp (USB +1%) is Neutral as well thanks to its premium valuation. Also not meriting a Buy rating are Fifth Third (FITB +0.4%), M&T (MTB +0.8%), and PNC Financial (PNC +0.9%).
- JPMorgan today upgrades BB&T to a Buy with $42 price target.
Jan. 2, 2014, 11:22 AM
Dec. 17, 2013, 4:19 AM
- The Fed intends to use its own estimates about the effect of a recession on bank balance sheets in its stress tests. Previously, the Fed has relied on data from the firms themselves.
- The central bank could project that bank assets would grow during a slump, as has happened in the past three recessions, rather than fall, as the banks have predicted.
- With such a finding, the Fed could require banks to hold more loss-absorbing capital or limit shareholder payouts. (Fed letter)
- Tickers: GS, JPM, BAC, BK, AXP, COF, C, FITB, MS, PNC, RF, STT, STI, USB, WFC.
- ETFs of interest: KBE, KBWB, KRE, KCE, KBWC, XLF, IYF, PFI, VFH, RYF, RWW, FAS, UYG, FAZ, SKF, SEF, IAI, FXO, PSCF, KBWD, KBWB, IYG, FINU, FINZ.
Dec. 16, 2013, 2:57 PM
- Alongside upgrades to Citi and Fifth Third, Evercore removes its Buy rating on PNC Financial (PNC +0.3%). "Ongoing productivity improvements in newer markets [are] unlikely to offset continued spread revenue headwinds and limited expense flexibility," writes analyst Andrew Marquardt. At 11.5x 2014 EPS, valuation isn't unattractive, he says, but mixed near-term fundamentals and the potential for disappointment (his estimates are below consensus) has him moving to the sidelines.
Dec. 6, 2013, 9:17 AM
- The agreement resolves substantially all indemnification and repurchase obligations on 900K loans originated and sold by PNC to Freddie Mac (FMCC) between 2000 and 2008. PNC will pay Freddie $89M (less credits of $8M).
- This follows an agreement in principal between PNC and Fannie Mae. Both deals require final approvals from the FHFA.
- Press release
Nov. 27, 2013, 1:42 PM
- American Express (AXP +0.4%), Discover (DFS +0.3%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +0.2%), and Wells Fargo (WFC -0.1%) are best positioned to be allowed large capital returns (about 70%) after the Fed's early 2014 stress tests, says Credit Suisse's Moshe Orenbuch, while Ciitgroup (C +0.2%) and PNC Financial (PNC +0.9%) are likely to show the biggest improvement from last year.
- Overall, his team expects large cap bank capital returns to be 65% next year vs. about 48% in 2013. The median dividend payout ratio is expected at 22%, level with this year.
- Orenbuch notes the CCAR will be tougher this time around - notably by assuming a global, not just domestic meltdown, and assuming a significant reversal in the property market - with commercial real estate exposure particularly harshly judged.
- Balanced against that and likely winning, however, are far stronger capital positions of the banks, says Orenbuch.
- Financial and banking ETFs: FAS, XLF, FAZ, UYG, KRE, KBE, VFH, IYF, IPF, SEF, IAI, IAT, IYG, FXO, PFI, IXG, KBWB, RKH, QABA, KCE, FINU, RWW, KRU, RYF, KBWR, AXFN, PSCF, KRS, FNCL, FINZ, KBWX, KBWC
Nov. 8, 2013, 10:41 AM
- Up sharply as interest rates fly higher (the 10-year is up 15 basis points to 2.75%) are the life insurers - all of whom have had their investment returns more than a little constrained by puny yields. IAK +2.4%
- MetLife (MET +5.9%), Prudential (PRU +4.5%), Lincoln National (LNC +6.8%), Hartford (HIG +3.1%).
- Also set to benefit from a steeper yield curve (if we're to believe their models) are the banks, and they're leading the S&P 500 higher. The TBTFs: Bank of America (BAC +3.3%), JPMorgan (JPM +3.1%), CItigroup (C +3.3%), Wells Fargo (WFC +2.6%). The regionals (KRE +3.4%): Huntington (HBAN +2.6%), Regions (RF +4.2%), PNC (PNC +2.8%), FIfth Third (FITB +3.4%), First Niagara (FNFG +2%), Keycorp (KEY +3.5%), Zions (ZION +4.1%), Comerica (CMA +3.1%).
- The XLF +1.9%.
- FInancial sector ETFs: FAS, XLF, FAZ, UYG, KRE, KBE, VFH, IYF, KIE, SEF, IAT, IAI, IYG, IAK, FXO, PFI, KBWB, RKH, QABA, RWW, FINU, RYF, KRU, KBWR, PSCF, KBWP, KBWI, KRS, FINZ, FNCL
Oct. 16, 2013, 7:57 AM
- We've heard from some of the TBTF banks, but what do the regionals have to say? PNC net income of $1B is down from $1.1B in Q2.
- Net interest income of $2.2B is off 1% from Q2 as net interest margin of 3.47% fell 9 basis points.
- Noninterest income of $1.7B is off 6.6% from Q2, with mortgage banking income falling 20% to $193M. Total loans up 2% Q/Q, up 6% Y/Y, led by a 9% increase in commercial lending.
- Expenses of $2.4B are flat with last quarter and down 9% from a year ago, mostly thanks to charges related to the redemption of trust preferred securities.
- Tier 1 capital ratio of 10.4% is up from 10.1% last quarter.
- Conference call at 10 ET.
- Q3 results, press release.
- Shares +2.1% premarket.
Oct. 16, 2013, 6:38 AM
Oct. 16, 2013, 12:05 AM
Oct. 15, 2013, 5:30 PM
Oct. 7, 2013, 3:52 PM
- Among banks and credit card names, FBR favors those picking up new teams/market share - namely Signature Bank (SBNY -1.4%) and Discover (DFS) - as well as those trading near book value, like HomeStreet (HMST -0.6%). PNC Financial remains a favorite for its strong growth prospects, as well as servicers like Nationstar (NSM +0.2%), Walter Investment (WAC -2.3%), and New Residential (NRZ -0.3%).
- Those most exposed to a protracted government shutdown are smaller community banks in the D.C. area like Eagle Bancorp (EGBN -1.4%), and Cardinal FInancial (CFNL -0.2%). Capital One (COF -1.9%) - by dint of its Chevy Chase acquisition - would also feel a pinch.
- On mREITs (REM -0.1%), the team expects Q3 book values to increase slightly, but warns its estimates are based on relatively static portfolios - "but for most names, portfolios are anything but that." With all the volatility, most mREITs may have hedged away the recent MBS rally. Starwood Property Trust (STWD) remains FBR's best idea thanks to its commercial real estate exposure.
- Financials ETFs: XLF, IYF, PFI, VFH, RYF, RWW, FAS, UYG, FAZ, SKF, SEF, IAI, FXO, PSCF, KBWD, KBWB, IYG, FINU, FINZ.
Oct. 3, 2013, 10:12 AM
Sep. 19, 2013, 3:05 PM
- Regional banks have fallen and can't get up following yesterday afternoon's non-taper announcement. The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE -1.7%) is off about 3% from where it stood prior to 2 PM ET yesterday.
- The sector sliced right through the bond market tumble this summer as higher rates were expected to boost profitability for the lenders, and investors are using the excuse of the taper delay to cash in some chips (as they are with another higher-rate beneficiary, the insurance sector).
- Individual names of note: Huntington (HBAN -2%), Regions (RF -3.7%), SunTrust (STI -3.1%), First NIagara (FNFG -2.8%), Synovus (SNV -1.8%), KeyCorp (KEY -3.9%), ZIons (ZION -3.1%), Flagstar (FBC -2.3%).
- Perhaps a little less asset-sensitive and performing better: U.S. Bancorp (USB -0.4%), BB&T (BBT -0.3%), PNC Financial (PNC -0.5%), Hudson CIty (HCBK -0.9%), Fifth Third (FITB -1%).
- Other ETFs: KBE, KBWB.
Sep. 16, 2013, 3:44 PM
- PNC Bank easily passes its self-administered stress test, showing a Tier 1 common capital ratio of 10.2% after 9 quarters of "severely adverse" conditions. This compares to the current ratio of 9.8% and the 7.9% result seen at the March exam.
- Why the big improvement? Two quarters of additional earnings have been booked, two quarters of house price increases have occurred, higher forecast revenues, higher projected economic activity, and lower-than-forecasted mortgage rates.
- Previous: A number of other lenders pass their stress tests.
- The results of the Fed's CCAR - and the determination on approval of banks' capital plans - are due in March.
- PNC's Mid-Year Stress Test Results.
PNC vs. ETF Alternatives
PNC Financial Services Group Inc is a financial services company. It operates in six segments: Retail Banking; Corporate & Institutional Banking; Asset Management Group; Residential Mortgage Banking; BlackRock; and Non-Strategic Assets Portfolio.
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