Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
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POT Forum Topics
- All Comments on POT
- General Discussion on POT
- Agriculture: Are There Still Bulls in the Supermarket? [view article]
- RBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT? [view article]
- Potash Corp. Earns $2.82, a 220% Increase [view article]
- The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust [view article]
- The Hardest Trade - Fast Money Recap (7/24/08) [view article]
- The 2008 Share Repurchase Program At Potash Corp. (Part VI) [view article]
- Time For Wall Street to Get Back on the POT [view article]
- Potash Corp. Posts Record Q2 Earnings [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Why I'm Cutting Some Fertilizer Exposure [view article]
- Should You Stick to the Straight and Narrow? [view article]
loading ...Recent POT Articles
- RBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT?
- Time For Wall Street to Get Back on the POT
- Potash Corp. Posts Record Q2 Earnings
- The Hardest Trade - Fast Money Recap (7/24/08)
- Agriculture: Are There Still Bulls in the Supermarket?
- Potash Corp. Earns $2.82, a 220% Increase
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- The 2008 Share Repurchase Program At Potash Corp. (Part VI)
- Should You Stick to the Straight and Narrow?
- The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust
- Full List of Articles »
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Agriculture: Are There Still Bulls in the Supermarket? [view article]
As for the criminals, Nancy Peloser, and her gang will get em, unless they raise the tax on their profits, then it will never end. ReplyRBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT? [view article]
Terra Nitrogen, they reported the same day as POT and the stock was up big thursday and Friday while both POT and MOS were down. I didnt understand that at all. People are talking about current valuations too lofty and dont get me going about QCOM price target, QCOM's PE ratio was exponentially higher than potash's. People did just fine without CDMA, POT has 75% of the world's Potash supply, what ever that is, I guess we really need it to eat. Slightly more important than CDMA :) ReplyRBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT? [view article]
I am long pot and as i watched my streaming quotes yesterday morning,in what seemed like a nano second, they took pot from 205 to 190 dropping a dollar on the bid each time,or so it seemed as it happened so fast.To me,it looked like 2 things were going on 1-they were taking out all the stop losses down to 190 and 2-they were scaring the nervous longs into giving up their shares on the cheap.The exact same scenario occured following their previous earnings report.
This company has great management and is in the sweet spot of a very profitable and long term industry;the fundementals are solid and the company is executing as one can see from their report.Spot potash prices are surpassing $1000 for the rest of the year;canpotex is expanding it's facilities and potash corp. is expanding its future production capacities.
Analysts put prices of 275/300/350 and so on,but these are just numbers.Remember the qcom days when the infamous $1000 price target was put on its head.I remember watching qcom go from $500 to $600 on the day that that price target was published;but alas,those were the good ol dot bomb days.
This stock is worth a lot more than $200/share.Unless the fundementals of this company/industry change,just put your shares under the matress and you will be handsomely rewarded.I have held my core position now for 8 months and will continue to hold on as there are not many better places to invest than in this company.
For the day traders out there,or the "investors" with a short term horizon,be careful as this stock, as you well know, has violent swings;for the shorts out there,please short more as you will ultimately aid in pushing the stock higher.Back in the dot bomb days,i had a friend who was short amzn.One morning a highly regarded analyst put out a ridiculous price target on the stock;by the time my friend could cover that morning he had lost 80 points.
So net/net,long term this story only gets better;short term,anything can happen in these markets.I don't buy and hold many stocks,but pot is a keeper Reply
Potash Corp. Earns $2.82, a 220% Increase [view article]
ZOMG MY STOCKS R DOWN IT MUST BE EEVIL SHORT SELLARS DOING IT!!!Get a grip.... The markets can be very irrational in the short term, but short sellers have NOTHING to do with a company's long term success if management does what they are supposed to do. Reply
RBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT? [view article]
What a friggin joke! ACI rises 10% today on good earnings, not nearly as good as Potashes, but Potash fell 5% on theirs. What a f joke! ReplyRBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT? [view article]
I can't believe that people think a company with such incredible fundamentals trading at the bottom of its trading range is a short.If you look worldwide it is difficult to find a company with such a bright long-term future. Reply
Agriculture: Are There Still Bulls in the Supermarket? [view article]
Doyle from Potash needs to step up and deliver a knock out punch to these criminals/manipulators who are playing with his stock price. He's killing the shareholders and its time he step as CEO and DELIVER! ReplyRBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT? [view article]
This is a crime that potash is not over 250 right now. Doyle needs to step up and stick it to the hedgies/manipulators that having been playing with his stock and hurting shareholders. Doyle needs to put an end to this nonsense and now! ReplyRBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT? [view article]
Let's see...the Jul. 24th report shows a 216% net income GAIN (vs. 2007 same Q); a 220% net income GAIN per diluted share; an EBITDAGAIN of 178%; all based from a Gross Sales Gain of 98%...: The Forward looking statements suggest continued "perfect" growth; and the expansions of both production, transport and inventory logistics (doubling Vancouver BD port facilities, etc.) were also consistent accomodating the REAL exponential increases in world demand.
-- and some of you are thinking that this is a short play?? Well, DUH...maybe...After all, UBS DOWNGRADED the stock's 2008 price target to $308.00!! Reply
RBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT? [view article]
EDITED: AXE: Your call looks great here and the hedge funds are liquidating winners to push up the bogus financials, thats it, thats your rotation. You are saying, this move in the financials, homebuilders and airlines is for REAL :}.I have been in Potash stock since 2003 and all along, I have heard countless arguments against this stock being overvalued , oh, I love haters. One day they will be right, that day is not today. As for this Sh$t it all smelling like ro$e$ for now. Reply
RBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT? [view article]
AXE: Your call looks great here and the hedge funds are liquidating winners to push up the bogus financials, thats it, thats your rotation. You are saying, this move in the financials, homebuilders and airlines. I have been in Potash stock since 2003. I have heard countless BS arguments against this stock being overvalued for years now, I love haters. One day they will be right, that day is not today. As for this Sh$t it all smelling like ro$e$ for now. ReplyRBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT? [view article]
The Best trade is to short POT go long TRA as a hedge (Lower Natty G is better for the nitrogen guys) but in general, its a way way crowded long and as the rotation out of materials/AG begins, this will also end badly....By the way, Dont give me the Changing DIET argument either...I am not saying that the BRIC nations wont eventually demand more Meats ect...but you are putting the cart WAY in front of the horse on this one...Diets will change, but it wont be overnight (Gap between Rich and Poor in China is still HUGE and the country is on the verge of a revolution...)....Pric... it all in to far....Corn breaks $5 the story has even more issues....SHORT ALL THE FERTS are as we like to call them, The Sh*t stocks ReplyRBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT? [view article]
POT is a SHORT....if you really think they are going to Earn $20 - $22 per share in 2009 you guys are going to be in for a huge disappointment....Corn is rolling over, Farmers margins are getting squeezed (below $6 Corn they earn less than $400 per/acre and now Fertilize is supposed to double again???). The street is spinning this potential strike as a postive will give them the ability to raise prices further do to the fact that there is more scarcity.... Strike = rising wage costs and less Margins. Period. Good luck hitting the 2009 estimates....Corn doesnt grow to the SKY! I am not shorting here, i am going to wait for $220 again and start the postion ReplyRBC Defends Potash Corp.'s Valuation: $200 POT? [view article]
For a business that includes natural gas as a major expense in production, and shipping as a major cost, you'd think that oil/gas drops would inspire a jump in price. Apparently, all commodities are lumped together.jegan ;-) Reply
The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust [view article]
Andrew, your article has a lot of merit, and I agree with many of your assertions. The facts related to production cost play into the AGs, and to a degree, I think part of your reason for modifying some of your opinions for Ag stocks is based on the sudden and recent decline in oil. It was unpredictable as far as the timing.Still, I believe, for all of the right reasons, that stocks like Mosaic, and the AG sector in general continue to offer traders and investors what may be arguably, the safest and potentially the most profitable opportunities in the current market.
Analysts should not be the catalyst for pulling the trigger on any stock, but good analysts are like trackers--they know what we are hunting for, and they know how to track the prey.
Many of the best of breed like Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, and even S & P continue to reiterate and/or upgrade their ratings for the AG sector and specific stocks with fantastic outlooks, buy and overweight ratings, and high great target prices on stocks such as MOS POT and others. Analysts can be a fickle group so the saving grace about most of these ratings is that they have based their analysis on solid research, fundamentals, and the fact that the dynamics of the AG sector are more straightforward than other sectors.
With most of the key statistics looking solid, and the products they produce being "Need Based" rather than discretionary, one only needs to use common sense and a Economics 101/102 analysis to arrive at a consensus that AG related goods and services will continue to be in high demand for a predictable period of time.
The supply and demand side will settle into trend cycle, but we are not at that point yet. Emerging markets are and will continue to grow and demand a greater diversification in diet, as well as more of their traditional foods. Factors like the price of oil, weather conditions, and government policies will play into the Ag sector, but once again, given the absolute need for these products, we should all take some comfort that the Agricultural “Bust” will be short lived.
On the other hand, I must emphasize that institutional investors (hedge and mutual funds, banks, etc.), may represent the most unpredictable element to for traders and analysts of AG stocks because their market power constitutes an ever present challenge to the savviest of traders.
Too often, these entities are the primary reason for unwarranted volatility as they manipulate the prices of solid stocks for their institution’s benefit alone.
The extraordinary power they have to move and/or manipulate the markets by trading stratospheric amounts of shares and their history of turning on a dime during the course of even one day is well documented.
These firms trade at levels that some governments can’t match, so I don’t consider it a stretch to compare their market moving power to those of weather events like a small hurricanes or winter storms. Needless to say, investors should always be looking over their shoulders and be aware that a hedge fund or other institution can come out of the shadows and we have to board out windows up for a stock or sector storm. The only traders that have the front on their radar are the very people that are doing these massive trades for the institutions.
It appears that the primary motivation is to control the stock as much as possible and move it in a somewhat predicable fashion that will allow them to safely double and triple dip their profits. They move into a sector or stock because of the great fundamentals, but then move the prices without regard to the fundamentals, good news, or great outlooks of the company or sector.
My bottom-line on the Ag play is that need based stocks like Mosaic that have great financials and supply and demand fundamentals other sectors would sell their in-laws for, so there is no doubt that the AGs will be able to weather the storms brought on by oil and the institutional investors and once again, move up at a rather sustained pace.
Mosaic will move back up to around $145 to $165 before September, and we could see a high (spike or otherwise) of around $180 by the end of the year. At this point, 2009 is too hard to call but there will be a new growing and thus a demand cycle for crops for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, so I am looking for another positive year for AG stocks.
In the current markets, the Ag sector and well managed companies like Mosaic will continue to represent one of the few areas that offer us all an opportunity to sleep well knowing that the sector will be relatively stable for some time to come.
Finally, the hedge funds, other institutional investors and short-sellers know their clients want to be where the profits are. These institutions also know that their job is to do it in a manner that provides their clients with a safety edge, and there are few, if any areas that can provide both of those factors like Ag stocks.
Finally, the institutional investors know the fates of their careers are based on keeping their clients where positioned in sectors that consistently produce the highest profits and have high comfort levels in a volatile or for that matter, non-volatile markets. At this point, there is really no other place for them to go except for a quick dip, so we should all sleep better knowing that the Agriculturals will be relatively stable and wildly profitable for some time to come.
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