Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
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POT Forum Topics
- All Comments on POT
- General Discussion on POT
- Potash Corp. Earnings Shouldn't Peak Until at Least 2011 [view article]
- In Support of Potash Corp.'s Projected 2008 Gross Margin Increase [view article]
- Commodities: Brief Correction or Bursting Bubble? [view article]
- Potash Corp: Dynamics of Supply and Demand Drive Earnings Growth [view article]
- Dynamite Drug Stock - Cramer's Lightning Round (8/21/08) [view article]
- Financial Downgrades Down Markets - Fast Money Recap (8/19/08) [view article]
- Hedge Fund Manager's Notebook: Pawn Shops and Railroads In, Oil and Commodities Out [view article]
- Potash Sell-Off Overdone - Citi [view article]
- Buy, Sell, or Hold Fertilizer Stocks: Agriculture Bust (Part II) [view article]
- Barron's Drop - Fast Money Recap (8/18/08) [view article]
- Checking In on George Soros [view article]
loading ...Recent POT Articles
- Potash Corp. Earnings Shouldn't Peak Until at Least 2011
- In Support of Potash Corp.'s Projected 2008 Gross Margin Increase
- Commodities: Brief Correction or Bursting Bubble?
- Financial Downgrades Down Markets - Fast Money Recap (8/19/08)
- Barron's Drop - Fast Money Recap (8/18/08)
- Potash Sell-Off Overdone - Citi
- Checking In on George Soros
- The Downside of Momentum-Based Investing
- Retail on a Tear - Fast Money Recap (8/11/08)
- Highly Defensive PerformIdex: 35 Stocks to Outpace the Markets
- Full List of Articles »
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Checking In on George Soros [view article]
I think this is the worst source of stock information available ReplyChecking In on George Soros [view article]
The article is also misleading about Buffett's Ingersoll Rand positon. Most (if not all) of the increase resulted from Ingersoll's purchase of Trane. Buffett was already a holder of Trane shares, which were converted into Ingersoll shares. ReplyChecking In on George Soros [view article]
Articles like this are unfortunate, as the information presented is completely inaccurate. There is no indication whether Buffett sold or added to his ConocoPhillips holding, as he received permission from the SEC to supress disclosure of his activities in that stock until a later date. So disclosure of his position was omitted. That does NOT mean that he sold it.As to Union Pacific, he did NOT double his position. Union Pacific split its stock 2 for 1 in May, thereby doubling the number of shares at half the price. I suggest that whoever edits this information review it for accuracy, as otherwise trusting and unknowledgable people will be grossly misled. Reply
Buy, Sell, or Hold Fertilizer Stocks: Agriculture Bust (Part II) [view article]
So what's the next big boom, final half of '2008 and into '2009?Solar
Wind
Alternative Energy Sources
??? Reply
The Downside of Momentum-Based Investing [view article]
I don't know about the rest of the investing world. I knew of Potash years ago. When it split 3 for 1 a year ago I bought in at $70/shr. I have kept this stock but also buy in and out on lows and highs. You just can't listen to all the noise on the street. You have to find a strategy works for you. Buying good companies with good growth. ReplyThe Downside of Momentum-Based Investing [view article]
Kevin, as a holder of a few of these I appreciate your article.Its a tough world. Had I valued these stocks using normal metrics and listening to broker advice, I would never have bought them. They were always too expensive. But as each day passed, earnings were upgraded and upgraded again until somehow it appeared that the market was the lead indicator and the analysts were just catching up to the true story.
At some point in time, the implied growth rate in the valuation seemed too much, and maybe at that time, the tables turned.
If I have a secret to share, its that I scan the index for these opportunities and I invest in them on a portfolio basis, not as individual picks, nor on the advice of Cramer. So I was lucky (maybe skillful) that my momentum analysis found them early. I must say, I don't know what to do now. Reply
The Downside of Momentum-Based Investing [view article]
Momentum-based success is intoxicating, while momentum-based failure is sobering. Two words: stop-loss. One must actively update the placement of stop-losses......or die a sobering death.BTW, hilarious article linked at the end. Reply
Retail on a Tear - Fast Money Recap (8/11/08) [view article]
Today K+S AG a European specialty fertilizer supplier reported fantastic earnings. They more than quadrupled the year ago quarter. This may be the impetus to turn around the POT, MOS, and AGU trades. They moved to the upside yesterday when the dollar weakened. However, they are continuing to move up today even with a relatively strong dollar. Grain futures are up today. Oil futures are up slightly. Things are boding very well for POT et al. ReplyPotash Corp.: Sitting on the Long-Term Trendline [view article]
David,I agree but would add that the recent $US rally *and* significant POT selling may well be simply a case of hedge fund deleveraging. It has long been the case that a good investment pairing is short USD + long commodities (oil, ag, gold). With the significant pressure in terms of increased margin limits et al., it is quite possible that the recent USD run-up is a case of them covering their shorts to lock in profits and reduce margin usage.
There is certainly *nothing* that has changed in terms of the fundamental macro-economic problems confronting the US dollar (of which there are so many I don't know where to start in enumerating them!)...so I would expect the USD to weaken over the next few weeks/months and commodities (including equities like POT) to begin to strength once again!
Once again, NOTHING has changed to make the US dollar (or US economy) healthy...this is just a temporary negative spike.
On Aug 12 10:05 AM David White wrote:
> The big reason for the decline in commodities recently seems likely
> to have been the US dollar strengthening. The led to investor exiting
> their commodity futures hedges against the dollar. Today the EURO
> is up against the dollar. Not coincidentally POT has started to go
> up again. The strength of the US Dollar does appear to be the key
> issue in commodities prices these days. Also by now a lot of people
> have already exited their hedge (of the dollar) trades. This was
> creating a short term temporary spike downward in demand on most
> commodities. If the US dollar is now wavering, hedgers might try
> to re-enter. This would spike prices the other way. If the US dollar
> strength is still improving overall, enough hedgers may already be
> out of the market to allow commodity prices to rise. Demand is actually
> increasing for most commodities. Oil demand may be the one commodity
> demand that is most tied to economic performance, especially US economic
> performance. For the "food" commodities the demand should still be
> great. The temporary downward spike in demand may be nearly over
> if most of the hedgers are now out???? If so, this would allow the
> Ag stocks to begin their rise. Reply
Potash Corp.: Sitting on the Long-Term Trendline [view article]
The big reason for the decline in commodities recently seems likely to have been the US dollar strengthening. The led to investor exiting their commodity futures hedges against the dollar. Today the EURO is up against the dollar. Not coincidentally POT has started to go up again. The strength of the US Dollar does appear to be the key issue in commodities prices these days. Also by now a lot of people have already exited their hedge (of the dollar) trades. This was creating a short term temporary spike downward in demand on most commodities. If the US dollar is now wavering, hedgers might try to re-enter. This would spike prices the other way. If the US dollar strength is still improving overall, enough hedgers may already be out of the market to allow commodity prices to rise. Demand is actually increasing for most commodities. Oil demand may be the one commodity demand that is most tied to economic performance, especially US economic performance. For the "food" commodities the demand should still be great. The temporary downward spike in demand may be nearly over if most of the hedgers are now out???? If so, this would allow the Ag stocks to begin their rise. ReplyBuy, Sell, or Hold Fertilizer Stocks: Agriculture Bust (Part II) [view article]
These are momentum names and the mo is working against them right now. I'm waiting for Pot at $140 for a monster run but the drop isn't done yet. ReplyPotash Corp: Dynamics of Supply and Demand Drive Earnings Growth [view article]
"I'll go out on a limb and predict. When POT has sustained trades at or above $182 it will rapidly climb to $200. Whe we get sustained trades at or above $202, we're off to the races to $240+ as the largest shorts will be taken out. We may not see the $182 level today, but we will tomorrow and $202+ by Monday/Tuesday.This is of course depends on the non-substitution of burnt wood and chicken droppings (kind of "really-old tech") for premium, balanced fertilizer needed to increase crop yields to feed the planet."
Sorry, was that $202 or was that $172 on Monday...I am confused.
(From an old-tech stock trader that doesn't like to lose money). Reply
Buy, Sell, or Hold Fertilizer Stocks: Agriculture Bust (Part II) [view article]
Jim Rogers says the bull market has still ways to go. It might end around 2012 or so.Agriculture is still very depressed in historical terms.
jimrogers-investments.... Reply
Buy, Sell, or Hold Fertilizer Stocks: Agriculture Bust (Part II) [view article]
Opps, typo on last post... I meant January NOT July. ReplyBuy, Sell, or Hold Fertilizer Stocks: Agriculture Bust (Part II) [view article]
You know it seems to me that the author calls a downturn in Ag long after the uptrend has broken and those that know this space know that Ag trades with the other commodities and while everyone is losing their heads I have been buying up MON shares.The uptrend will resume in this space just like it did the past 6 years (that I have been watching it) after Labor Day and up until July.
Don't let the shills scare you out of your shares because the more bearish the sentiment is the closer to the bottom we are getting. $146 will be EASILY achievable once the trend reverses.
Reply