Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)

All Comments on POT

  • commenter
    marketslueth
    May 10 09:26 PM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    I have not heard the mention of ethanol. Fortune magazine says that is what is driving up food prices. Is ethanol a bubble too? $6.50 a bushel for corn is unheard of. Will that help energy prices? Reply
  • commenter
    Paulo
    May 10 06:48 PM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    So, does global nuclear war start at $150 a barrel, $200 a barrel or $250 a barrel.

    And what will that do to producers and supply? Or will these be strategically avoided?

    Very large short positions may not be very useful, no?

    Okay, I admit that my mind would turn to shorting somewhere between $150 and $200 a barrel, but I am not sure that I would short producers, including oil sands.

    So what exactly would be shorted and in what time frame?     Reply
  • commenter
    silver-bulle
    t
    May 10 06:07 PM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    BTW for all who wants to bet against Soros and Buffett, you should have very VERY LARGE short positions on oil, commodities, precious metals and agriculture. And large long positions on financials and the US dollar. Reply
  • commenter
    silver-bulle
    t
    May 10 05:58 PM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    e2800 - Forget what others says, since you are an econ major let's talk about supply and demand.

    A bubble is defined as an inordinate increase in price of an item where there is EXCESS supply.

    With that in mind, please point us to newer and larger oil wells, please show me where the extra grains and wheat and commodities are? We simply do not have enough supply (we as in the world) of any of these commodities. The manufacturing facilities oil rigs and mines are decades old, and few, if not none, are built in the recent past. These facilities take years to be in full production. So, please, know your facts and not let your emotions run wild.

    I'll tell you what a bubble is:
    - The US dollar
    - Financial stocks and bonds
    - Housing
    - World consumption - Lead by USA

    I dare say gas will be at $8/gal in 2009. When that happens, all commodities will shot way, way up.

    If things get bad (gas line, riots etc.) we may all see world war III - that will be the inclination of our political leaders. This will make going into Iraq seem like a walk in the park.

    Do not forget: China, India, Russia, USA all have nuclear capabilities. It WILL be a fight for survival.

    There is no bubble     Reply
  • commenter
    richjoy
    May 10 03:55 PM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    Sorrry I'm late to this excellent discussion.

    When oil increases by 40% in a few months, this is a BUBBLE!...OK, I've said it.

    But more needs to be said:

    Basically, oil responds to supply/demand fundamentals--however, demand didn't increase by anything like 40% in a few months. But, like other investments, commodities do responds to speculation.

    I'm investing in oil, natural gas, and base metals stocks and ETFs, but for no purpose than to make a profit--so, I guess I'm a speculator...arn't you also?

    Bubbles burst, and the oil bubble may burst next week; but the bursting of these commodity bubbles are but brief temporary "corrections"... that constitute buying opportunities to higher price levels.

    This bubble-and-burst situation will continue until either supply increases sugnificantly (which will take decades), or demand is met (also may take decades).

    With respect to grains (and unlike the other commodities), supply can be increased rather quickly, even within 1 year in some cases. Therefore, gain bubbles should be burst much faster than those for oil, steel, nat. gas, etc. Still, worldwide demand for grains continues to grow, and prices tend to rise again. Thus, I also continue to invest in grain ETFs.

    Finally, I don't care what you call it--bubble, or fundamentals--it will continue to be a good investment.     Reply
  • commenter
    VSD
    May 10 02:31 PM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    If all economist agreed it was a bubble, it would not be a bubble. Bubble is when everybody thinks there is some economic factor driving the prices higher and in reality it is just a speculative frenzy. Reply
  • commenter
    unseen
    May 10 02:12 PM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    What people forget is that prices are impacted by the margins. In other words if there is one barrel more supply of oil than is needed than their is over supply and if there is one barrel of oil less than is needed then there is undersupply. Since oil is showing high inventory numbers every weds at 10:30am and increasing inventory numbers every week, since the SPR is now almost totally full and since growth in the USA, China, India, Europe all have fallen in the last couple of months. We have an increasing supply of oil with a corresponding decrease in demand. the USA decreased demand for gasoline 7% last month alone. Basic econ 101 states that increasing supply and decreasing demand requires a decrease in price. Yet oil is going up not down. In other words oil is no longer trading with its underlying fundementals. In history whenever something starts to trade above or below its fundementals the price will over time revert to those fundmentals. As of now the bulls in oil contend that it is a "threat to supply", an "increase in demand in the future as China/India comes on line". As long as the bull case is made than the price is fair because supply will come down or demand will rise. If however any of their future predictions are wrong than the price of oil will fall and fall hard until supply and demand are in sink. Oil in other words is climbing the "wall of worry" It can continue to climb until the bull story falls apart. This is why bubbles are so hard to spot. It's only a bubble after the correction. During the run all the words and theories are confirmed and allow the run to continue. Oil could go to $150-$200 easily has more "end of the world"/ "peak oil" thinking emerges. The bubble starts when the underlying price breaks from the fundementals story. Which oil has done. The more the price rises in disregard to the fundementals the harder the fall will be. With every dollar oil moves up the risk to the downside increases and the reward to the upside decreases. There is most likely a lot of upside left in oil but we have come to the end of the beginning. It is now entering the begining of the greed phase. As we all know this phase never ends well but if you can get off before the ride comes to a stop millions can be made. Reply
  • commenter
    Ali Anani
    May 10 02:11 PM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]

    There is no commodities bubble.....just because prices are up does not a Bubble make....

    Except for OIL, all...ALL of the other commodities rely on energy for extraction...from infrastructure to mining and transportation or irrigation, fertilizer and transportation...The prices of commodities are all dependent on the energy costs involved...
    I quote the above from Paultaut comment.
    Just a pasing comment the potash from the DEAD Sea is not affected to a large extent by energy prices. Solar ponds are employed in extracting potash salts and so potash is less sensitive to enrgy prices in this part of the world.     Reply
  • commenter
    e2800
    May 10 01:06 PM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    I have a masters in Economics, and my experience with economists is that they spend too much time in offices looking at models. Very few actually take the time time to look at smaller details. How many saw a housing bubble, how many saw the tech bubble, how many predicted a soft landing? 11% say speculative bubble in commodities, that means 89% say no speculative bubble? I'll go with the 11% Reply
  • commenter
    yank
    May 10 01:03 PM
    My Website
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    Crossing:
    Nicely said. I guess what I would say to those trashing the commodity sector is to listen to Louise Yamada's comments about it. Louise is a technical stock strategist (30 years with Smith Barney) who interprets future sector price action based on past trends. Interestingly, one of her main points is that the longer a sector remains in a downtrend (for commodities see 1980-2000) the LONGER the recovery period when it bounces back. So typically since commodities were down for approximatley 20 years, we will most definitely see at least a 15-20 year bull cycle for this sector. This pretty much confirms what Jim Rogers has been saying all along. The longer the Wall St. community remains in "denial" about commodities as a viable asset class, the longer this uptrend will last. Bunch of whining crybabies. And by the way, Louise remains strongly NEGATIVE about the Financials and Technology sector for the exact opposite of what she said about commodities. Namely, since Financials have boomed for a relatively long period (1982-2000), they will remain in a confirmed downtrend for at least the next 5 years. Sorry CNBC, Cramer, and the other "shills" who can't stop talking about Financials. They are done. Stick a fork in them. Toast.

    Yank     Reply
  • commenter
    JREwing
    May 10 01:00 PM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    Excuse me? Reply
  • commenter
    bill d
    May 10 12:45 PM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    Now if we could just get China to piss of Israel. Reply
  • commenter
    paultaut
    May 10 12:43 PM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    There is no commodities bubble.....just because prices are up does not a Bubble make....

    Except for OIL, all...ALL of the other commodities rely on energy for extraction...from infrastructure to mining and transportation or irrigation, fertilizer and transportation...The prices of commodities are all dependent on the energy costs involved...

    Oil is not in a Bubble either...there is plenty of oil...unfortunately, most of it is curently unuseable. WTI is the US contract quoted...that particular grade HAS Peaked...Oil Sands/shale oil are not the answer if our refineries can not refine them...We need multiple state of the art refineries throughout the USA...they should be free of EPA regs until they are up and running....NO fines allowed until after the Fact and then time to make alterations if needed.

    Use National Emergency, Emminent Domain, whatever...to make it happen. Any State that protests will not be a recipient of the refined products after the Fact...share the pain or forget the gain.     Reply
  • commenter
    JREwing
    May 10 11:13 AM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    blackbody

    I am not saying, that prices will never come down. That would be illogical.

    I am saying that the world is not used to the additional demand from emerging economies. If the entire world economy were in recession prices will come down. Since this not the case, as the Baltic Dry shows impressively, I will stick with my investments until I come to the conclusion, that the boom is over.

    Considering, that the economic boom of Germany and Japan after WWII lasted more or less 20 or 30 years, I think, this one's gonna keep goin' for a while.

    Hell, they are building almost a hundred major airports in China. Lots of stuff to be consumed there. Love it!

    This is not house flipping. The Chinese fought with Rio and BHP for month now about the price for iron ore. And now they pay what Rio and BHP asked for anyway.

    There is real demand. They are building actual stuff over there and not just the silly olympic crap.

    I know, that this has never happened in our lifetimes, but nevertheless it is happening.

    Many key minds throughout history predicted, that the world would tremble, when China awakes.     Reply
  • commenter
    blackbody
    May 10 10:37 AM
    Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
    Just look at USO for example. If an investor buys into USO, then that creates demand for crude oil. Same is true for UNG, UGA, DBV, etc etc. The commodity have turned into investment vehicle where even average retail investors can speculate on commodities. As more and more people choose to hold position in USO or GLD, the added demand created will further skew the supply/demand. But just as added speculation added to the demand, the other side of the same coin is surge in supply as the speculative funds leave the commodity market at some point on profit taking. Each day, as commodity hits record after record, the defenders of price are beginning to sound exactly like the real-estate defenders of few years ago; this time it's different, that this is for real and price will never come down. I give it 12 month for commodity market to become another burst bubble. Reply
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