Sep. 16, 2014, 5:55 PM
- The CEO of Russian potash firm Uralkali (OTC:URALL) says it has no plans to return to the sales arrangement it had with Belarus, WSJ reports.
- Share prices of major potash producers in North America, Germany and Israel have rallied this year, partly on hopes of a reconciliation, but Uralkali CEO Dmitry Osipov says no talks have been held since April and none are planned.
- However, potash prices have not fallen as much as some analysts had predicted following the breakup, due in part to better than anticipated demand from Brazil and China.
- On watch: POT, MOS, AGU.
Sep. 12, 2014, 8:00 AM
Sep. 12, 2014, 7:51 AM
- Potash (NYSE:POT) says it has rescued the last of 96 miners trapped after a fire in one of its Saskatchewan potash mines, after some of them had spent more than 24 hours underground.
- Fire broke out Wednesday in a water truck inside POT's Allan mine, and the workers were sent to underground refuge stations while a crew entered the mine and put out the fire.
- POT says it will assess the situation before deciding when to resume mining.
Sep. 9, 2014, 9:16 AM
- Cowen analysts maintain their bearish stance on the agriculture industry and fertilizer stocks, expecting the large crop and significantly lower grain prices to pressure fertilizer prices.
- The firm lowers estimates on all ag names to reflect a reduced fertilizer forecast and downgrades Potash (NYSE:POT) to Underperform from Market Perform as well as Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) to Sector Perform from Outperform; POT -1% premarket.
- Also: CF, AGU, IPI, RNF.
Aug. 28, 2014, 11:35 AM
- Uralkali (OTC:URALL) sees North American demand for potash rising to ~10M metric tons in 2014, matching the record level of 2010, as farmers boost production of crops.
- Consumption will be sustained at least through this fall as farmers replenish declining nutrient levels in the soil after crop production that reached an all-time high this year, Uralkali says; the region’s H1 demand was ~6M tons, up 30% Y/Y.
- Uralkali, competing with Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT), Agrium (NYSE:AGU) and Mosaic (NYSE:MOS), sells ~5% of its output in the U.S.
Jul. 24, 2014, 8:19 AM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) +2.8% premarket after posting big Y/Y declines in Q2 earnings and revenues, but results beat expectations and POT raised its earnings guidance for the year.
- POT says its H2 outlook has improved after record H1 demand, prompting it to raise its global potash shipment expectations to 56.5M-58M metric tons.
- Issues upside guidance for FY 2014, now seeing EPS of $1.70-$1.90 from its previous view of $1.50-$1.80 and $1.67 analyst consensus estimate; expects Q3 EPS of $0.35-$0.45 vs. $0.40 consensus.
- Says it remains on track to achieve its 2014 target of reducing per-ton cash costs by $15-$20 from 2013 levels, although Q3 will reflect normal seasonal increases as required maintenance downtime is completed.
- In Q2, POT says stronger performances from all three of its key nutrient segments improved, lower potash and nitrogen prices have rekindled demand, and cost efficiencies are helping the bottom line.
- Q2 gross margin fell to $747M from $979M in the year-ago period, with potash gross margin falling 36%; average potash prices were $263/metric ton, down from $356/ton from a year ago but up from $250 in Q1.
Jul. 24, 2014, 6:02 AM
Jul. 9, 2014, 10:52 AM
- Potash (POT -0.7%) is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at J.P. Morgan, citing valuation with shares near the firm's unchanged price target of $38.
- JPM believes falling crop prices in anticipation of high domestic corn and soybean supplies could weigh on POT shares.
- The firm prefers Mosaic (MOS -0.9%), as it has a lower valuation than POT and it is more exposed to increases in potash prices as it produces similar tonnage to POT with less than half the number of outstanding shares.
Jul. 8, 2014, 6:57 PM
- New Potash (POT) CEO Jochen Tilk says he will stick with the company's focus on supporting the price of potash by matching output to demand, rather than maximizing sales volume to fend off competition.
- In his first interviews with the media since becoming CEO, Tilk also seeks to reassure investor concerns about the appointment of an outsider with no fertilizer industry experience, citing his 30 years in the mining industry and the experience of current POT staff.
- Tilk is known for operating mines as efficiently as possible, which analysts say is needed at the current stage of the cycle; reducing operating costs is needed more than ever in a potash market awash in supply and trying to find its footing after a volatile year.
May. 21, 2014, 12:25 PM
- Potash (POT -1.2%) is downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James based upon the strong upside move in POT shares over the past several months.
- While the firm says recent industry data continues to support its view that global potash fundamentals remain on the mend, it sees recent share price gains combined with a higher underlying trading multiple as reducing the risk-reward proposition available to investors.
May. 14, 2014, 6:34 PM| Comment!
Apr. 24, 2014, 7:58 AM
- Potash Corp. (POT) +1.8% premarket after Q1 earnings and revenue beat analyst expectations and the company raises its sales outlook for the year.
- Q1's realized potash price was $250/metric ton, far below $363 from the same period last year, but low prices are helping to boost purchases, as sales volume rose to 2.3M metric tons vs. 2.2M a year ago.
- POT now expects to sell 8.3M-8.7M metric tons of potash this year, up slightly from earlier guidance of 8.2M-8.6M and far better than 2013 (8.1M) or 2012 (7.2M).
- Issues downside Q2 guidance, seeing EPS of $0.40-$0.45 vs. analyst consensus estimate $0.49; raises bottom end of FY 2014 EPS outlook to $1.50-$1.80 vs. prior guidance of $1.40-$1.80 and $1.67 consensus.
- Sees "steady improvements" taking hold in the potash industry, and maintains its FY 2014 global potash shipments outlook of 55M-57M metric tons vs. 53.5m tons shipped in 2013.
- Reports weaker Q1 results from its nitrogen and phosphate units due to lower prices; phosphate production also was disrupted by bad weather.
Apr. 24, 2014, 6:02 AM| 4 Comments
Apr. 15, 2014, 8:36 AM
- Potash (POT) +2.3% premarket on speculation that BHP Billiton (BHP) may make another run at acquiring the fertilizer company after failing in a prior buyout attempt in 2010, according to the Globe & Mail.
- The report says industry speculation is "intense" because "the numbers work, the personalities are closer to working, [and] even the politics are not insurmountable because the landscape has shifted," but it adds that "there is no sign that any potential deal is underway."
Apr. 7, 2014, 11:28 AM
- Wall Street reaction to the change of the guard at Potash (POT -1.6%), where longtime President and CEO Bill Doyle will step down in July after a 27-year career with the company, seems one of surprise and a bit of puzzlement.
- In the view of TD Securities analyst Greg Barnes, the fact that replacement Jochen Tilk comes from outside the fertilizer industry is a surprise, though he believes is widely respected by his peers and had a strong commitment to sustainability in the mining industry as the head man at Inmet Mining.
- According to Raymond James, Doyle's decision to step down isn't unexpected but is "a little taken aback" at the choice of Tilk "on the heels of one of the potash industry's most volatile periods."
- RBC is taking a wait-and-see approach as it learn more about how the new CEO will help shape the company's strategy to grow its earnings and navigate a challenging time in the potash market (Briefing.com).
Apr. 7, 2014, 3:42 AM
- Potash Corp. (POT) CEO Bill Doyle plans to step down in July after 15 years in the job and will be replaced by Jochen Tilk, the former head of Inmet Mining, which was acquired by First Quantum Minerals for C$4.9B last year.
- Tilk takes over amid a difficult potash market in which prices have stayed low due to years of soft demand and rising supplies.
- "Tilk is an outsider and that's going to bring with it challenges for the company and for the industry," says analyst Steve Hansen of Raymond James. (PR)
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