Mon, Feb. 9, 12:59 PM
- Mosaic (MOS +0.9%) is upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $56 price target at Morgan Stanley, which believes the company's phosphate assets are undervalued on an absolute basis.
- The firm also cites MOS' relative valuation relative to key peer Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) as "too severe," and a balance sheet with spare capacity on both an absolute and relative basis.
- A key risk to the bullish thesis would be another large U.S. corn crop, Stanley says.
Thu, Jan. 29, 8:34 AM
- Potash (NYSE:POT) +1.1% premarket after reporting better than expected Q4 results and raising its dividend by nearly 9% in a sign of confidence in future cash flow and demand for its fertilizer products.
- POT says Q4 potash sales volumes totaled a record 2.5M metric tons, bringing the FY 2-14 total to 9.3M; nitrogen volumes were relatively flat, while phosphate sales volumes fell due to certain production challenges.
- POT says increased sales volumes, lower costs and slightly higher realized prices raised its Q4 potash gross margin to $445M, 95% above the $228M during the year-ago period; Q4's average realized potash price was $284/ton.
- Issues in-line guidance for FY 2015, seeing EPS of $1.90-$2.20 vs. $2.12 analyst consensus estimate; issues in-line guidance for Q1, seeing EPS of $0.45-$0.55 vs. $0.51 consensus.
- Guides for 2015 potash sales volumes of 9.2M-9.7M tons and a full-year potash gross margin of $1.5B-$1.8B.
Thu, Jan. 29, 6:04 AM
Wed, Jan. 28, 5:30 PM
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Mon, Jan. 19, 5:26 PM
- "Demand for potash and phosphates exceeded our expectations during the fourth quarter," says CEO Jim Prokopanko. "Customers came to the market in force."
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) expects Q4 EPS of $0.83-$0.88, after excluding notable items (which will add another dime to the results) vs. Street estimates at $0.57. The company sees business strengthening further into 2015.
- Full Q4 results are due on February 11.
- Today's news will also be of interest to owners of Potash (NYSE:POT), Agrium (NYSE:AGU), and Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI).
- Source: Press Release
Dec. 19, 2014, 2:54 PM
- Potash (POT +1.9%) is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $40 price target, up from $38, at UBS, citing the company's strong dividend and improving free cash flow.
- UBS says the planned closure of Mosaic's Carlsbad operations in Jan. 2015 and the current flood at Uralkali's Solikamsk-2 mine could remove 2.4M -3.4M metric tons of combined capacity from the market and provides an opportunity for POT to gain more volumes, which also could lead to higher pricing.
- POT’s dividend yields ~4%, and UBS believes it provides downside protection given that the dividend can be funded even if potash prices remain flat; the firm thinks that over time POT may be able to return excess cash to shareholders through an increased dividend or further share repurchases.
- Other potash producers are higher: MOS +2%, AGU +0.4%, IPI +2.6%.
Dec. 5, 2014, 10:56 AM
- Potash Corp. (POT +2.4%) is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral with a $40 target price, raised from $34, at J.P. Morgan, citing more favorable potash industry fundamentals and the company's declining investment spending.
- The firm expects POT to generate a 6.3% free cash flow yield in 2015 and a 7.1% free cash flow yield in 2016, as POT currently pays a 4% dividend.
- U.S. potash inventories are now 35% below their five year average, the firm says.
Dec. 2, 2014, 6:11 PM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) +1.3% AH after saying it has completed strategic reviews of its potash and nitrogen fertilizer segments and plans to do the same for its phosphate unit, equity investments that have a combined market value of ~$4.5B.
- POT has amassed stakes in rival potash producers, including a 14% holding in Israel Chemicals (OTCPK:ISCHY) currently valued at ~$1.1B, a stake some analysts say may no longer meet POT’s investment criteria.
- In evaluating the investments, POT is considering whether it can influence the other companies and the likelihood of whether it can gain a controlling stake, CIBC analyst Jacob Bout says.
Nov. 26, 2014, 12:11 PM
- Potash producers Agrium (AGU -2.6%), Potash Corp. (POT -0.3%), Mosaic (MOS -0.2%), CF Industries (CF -1.3%) and Intrepid Potash (IPI -1.1%) continue to give back the gains that followed Uralkali’s mine suspension, and BofA Merrill's downgrade of AGU hasn't helped.
- While BofA remains positive on earnings from nitrogen, it believes potash is oversupplied and global demand growth could regress from 2014's ~11% pace.
- But Stifel analysts are not throwing in the towel on the potash producers, citing potash supply constraints from declining North American producer inventories as well as the potential for the permanent closure of the Russian mine offsetting the negative impact of potentially lower North American planted corn acreage.
Nov. 24, 2014, 7:45 AM
- Uralkali (OTC:URALL) is preparing to restart operations at half of its potash mine in Russia where work was halted last week after an accident, CEO Dmitry Osipov says.
- The governor of the Perm region where the Solikamsk-2 mine is located says the inflow of water at the mine had "practically stopped" and there is no danger to residents of the area, where a large sinkhole has formed.
- POT -2.6% premarket; also watch MOS, AGU, IPI.
Nov. 19, 2014, 3:58 PM
- Potash (POT +1.2%) is upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform with a $40 price target, up from $38.50, at Raymond James after troubles at a mine owned by Russia’s Uralkali forced its closure; in the event Uralkali’s capacity remains handicapped, the firm thinks POT could benefit from a tighter potash market.
- Fertilizer peer Mosaic (MOS +1.7%) is upgraded to Positive by Susquehanna, which believes its potash operating leverage is underappreciated by investors, as the shares went up less than POT yesterday in response to the Uralkali news even as MOS has more relative earnings leverage to an improvement in potash prices than POT.
- Earlier: CF Industries upgraded at Credit Suisse, which sees better industry position
Nov. 19, 2014, 9:55 AM
- A sinkhole is found near Uralkali's (OTC:URALL) Solikamsk-2 potash mine in Russia, where work was suspended yesterday after a water inflow.
- Uralkali does not know how seriously the mine at Solikamsk-2, which accounts for 20% of the company's capacity, would be affected, but a water inflow and resulting sinkhole in 2006 shut another Uralkali mine in the same region permanently.
- North American potash producer shares jumped 2%-5% yesterday, and are up early again today: POT +2.5%, MOS +2.4%, AGU +0.7%, IPI +2.3%.
Nov. 18, 2014, 11:25 AM
- Uralkali (OTC:URALL) shares fell by the most in a year after the potash miner suspended operations and evacuated workers from a potash mine in Russia’s Perm region because of an increase in brine inflow.
- The world’s biggest potash producer says it is monitoring the situation at the Solikamsk-2 mine, while its four other mines continue to operate normally.
- Uralkali's misfortune is sparking gains in North American potash producers: POT +5.1%, MOS +3.4%, AGU +3.4%, IPI +5%.
Nov. 12, 2014, 5:33 PM
Nov. 11, 2014, 7:17 PM
- Capital Group disclosed in a filing this week that it has increased its stake in Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) to 83.1M shares, or just above 10% of the total and nearly double the shares of any other single investor.
- “We don’t know whether Capital Group is averaging down their cost of [POT shares] or adding to their position because of Jochen Tilk’s new role, but regardless this should be positive for the stock,” AltaCorp Capital says.
- Capital Group is raising its stake in POT at a time when many investors expect the company will raise its dividend or buy back stock.
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