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Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT)

- NYSE
  • Jan. 6, 2014, 12:35 PM
    • The Obama administration is considering measures to toughen rules on fertilizer plants, farmers and oil drillers using or storing explosive chemicals such as those tied to a fatal blast in rural Texas last year, Bloomberg reports.
    • Among policies being considered: lowering the threshold at which the government would be notified that ammonium nitrate is being used or stored; requiring farmers and oil drillers to report on explosive chemicals they possess; and adding chemicals to the hazardous substances lists.
    • Related stocks: POT, CF, TNH, MOS, IPI, AGU, MON, BG, SQM.
    | 8 Comments
  • Dec. 13, 2013, 2:25 PM
    • Noble Energy (NBL -1%) and Delek Group (DGRLY), which are developing natural gas fields offshore Israel, are nearing a politically sensitive deal to supply gas to Jordan, WSJ reports.
    • The deal would involve extending a gas pipeline from an Israeli chemical plant to a fertilizer plant in Jordan owned by Arab Potash, which is 28% owned by Potash Corp (POT).
    • A deal would move Israel closer to exporting energy for the first time in its history, and could open a major economic link and provide a springboard for a much bigger supply deal between the neighboring countries.
    | 5 Comments
  • Dec. 6, 2013, 10:46 AM
    • Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall is bashing Potash Corp. (POT) for its announced 1,000-plus job cuts while preserving its dividend for shareholders.
    • "All the stakeholders in the company should share in the down times - not just workers, not just sub-contractors, but shareholders," Wall said in a letter to POT chairman Dallas Howe.
    • The province will lose ~440 jobs, most at the Lanigan division, where one of two mills will suspend production by year-end, and at the Cory division, where production will be reduced.
    | 10 Comments
  • Dec. 4, 2013, 3:59 PM
    • Fertilizer equities are higher following new coverage from RBC Capital, which prefers Mosaic (MOS +3.2%) and Agrium (AGU +2.4%) in the sector.
    • MOS and AGU are rated Outperform thanks to to a recent trend toward "improving demand in the potash and phosphate markets" and an expectation for "substantial" returns to holders over the next few years; MOS' solid position in the phosphate market could better position it if others are interested in its potash assets.
    • Potash (POT +1.3%), CF Industries (CF +10.7%) and Intrepid Potash (IPI +2.4%) are each started with Hold ratings.
    • Also impacting the ag names is news that CF is working with investment banks about creating an MLP.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | Comment!
  • Dec. 4, 2013, 3:52 PM
    • A bounce in potash markets is possible next year, assuming China steps back into the market and Russia and Belarus paper over differences that have disrupted the market, Potash Corp. (POT +1.4%) says at the Citi basic materials conference.
    • A supply contract in Q1 2014 between China and Canpotex - the export arm of Potash, Mosaic (MOS +3.3%) and Agrium (AGU +2.5%) - would set a price floor, then Indian buyers might lock in prices with Canpotex, followed by deals in other markets, setting up a chance for a "nice bounce" in H1 of next year, POT CFO Wayne Brownlee says.
    • POT says its decision to cut its workforce by ~18% will lead to cost reductions across the board; it anticipates a one-time cash charge in Q4 of ~$70M.
    | 1 Comment
  • Dec. 3, 2013, 6:15 PM
    • The layoffs and production cuts announced by Potash (POT) illustrate the key problem in the fertilizer sector: There has been no potash demand growth for six years while supply has been growing.
    • The job cuts have nothing to do with Uralkali's move to produce at full capacity, POT CEO Bill Doyle says; it's about demand weakness across all nutrients that began well before the chaos caused by Uralkali.
    • The two most important emerging markets for fertilizer are China and India, and demand is far lower than anticipated in both.
    • Barclays views the planned cuts as "a good and needed move" in response to the ills plaguing the industry.
    • Other fertilizer producers: MOS, AGU, IPI, CF, SQM.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 8 Comments
  • Dec. 3, 2013, 6:59 AM
    • Potash Corp. (POT) intends to lower its workforce by 18% in the U.S., Canada and Trinidad, due to sluggish fertilizer demand in developing markets.
    • In total, Potash will cut 1,045 jobs and expects to take severance charges of $70M.
    • The company will suspend output at one of its Lanigan mills and cut production at its Cory facility by the year-end, and halt output at its Penobsquis facility by Q1.
    • Potash forecasts 2014 capacity of over 10M tons.
    • Expects potash cost savings of $15-20 a ton in 2014 and targets $20-30 by 2016. For phosphate, the firm projects annualized improvements in gross margins of $10-15.
    • Shares +0.4% premarket. (PR)
    | 2 Comments
  • Nov. 22, 2013, 3:21 PM
    • The end of the uncertainty weighing on Potash (POT +0.1%) and Mosaic (MOS +2.2%) may be at hand, J.P. Morgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas writes, believing the point of Uralkali's (URALL) ownership change is the alteration of its go-to-market strategy, and an execution of a change in strategy should raise the value of POT and MOS given their sensitivity to changes in product prices.
    • POT and MOS are "undervalued," the firm says: Both companies have replacement values nearly twice their current share prices, POT has a 7.5%-8% sustainable free cash flow yield following the conclusion of its large potash capacity expansion, and MOS has a large share repurchase program it plans to execute beginning at the end of this month.
    | 18 Comments
  • Nov. 21, 2013, 7:58 AM
    • Belarus agrees to extradite Uralkali (URALL) CEO Vladislav Baumgertner to Russia, days after a buyer was found for the stake of Uralkali’s biggest owner.
    • At least one analyst thinks Baumgertner will resign; a lot depends on the attitude of the Belarus president toward him, and "given that it may be not warm, it would be easier for Uralkali to negotiate the terms of the new trading venture with Belarus with another CEO.”
    • Baumgertner was arrested in August and spent a month in a Belarusian jail after he withdrew his company from a joint venture with potash supplier Belaruskali.
    • Related tickers: POT, MOS, AGU, SQM, IPI.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | Comment!
  • Nov. 18, 2013, 3:31 PM
    • The EPA's proposal to reduce ethanol mandate requirements represents a setback for fertilizer producers, Cowen analysts say; the reduction could negatively impact corn markets, driving prices below $3.50/bushel which in turn also would impact demand and pricing for fertilizers (Briefing.com)
    • The firm believes the proposed changes present setbacks for corn growers and fertilizer producers of all types but especially nitrogen producers, since nitrogen is applied heavily to corn acres and soybeans get a negligible application of nitrogen.
    • Cowen foresees a negative impact on POT, AGU, MOS, IPI and to a greater extent on CF, RNF and UAN.
    | Comment!
  • Nov. 18, 2013, 4:12 AM
    • Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov - owner of the Brooklyn Nets - has agreed to acquire a 21.75% stake in Uralkali (URALL), the world's biggest potash miner, from the company's main owner, Dagestani tycoon Suleyman Kerimov.
    • Kerimov and his partners own a third of Uralkali, while China Investment Corp, China's sovereign wealth fund, purchased a 12.5% holding in September.
    • Uralkali caused turmoil in the potash markets after it ended its joint venture with Belarusian state-owned miner Belaruskali in July. The JV, called Belarusian Potash Co, controlled around 40% of the global market and so had a major influences on prices.
    • Following the breakup, Belarus arrested Uralkali CEO Vladislav Baumgertner in August, since when he has been in jail or under house arrest. (Previous)
    • Related tickers: POT, MOS, AGU, SQM, IPI.
    • Related ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 6 Comments
  • Nov. 15, 2013, 9:40 AM
    • Suleiman Kerimov and his business partners, who jointly control ~33% of potash maker Uralkali (URALL), may reach an agreement to sell the stake as soon as next week, Bloomberg reports.
    • Mikhail Prokhorov’s Onexim Group is the front-runner to take control, according to the report; the stake has a value of ~$5B.
    • POT +1%, MOS +0.8%, AGU +0.3%, SQM +0.2%, IPI +0.2%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 5 Comments
  • Nov. 14, 2013, 10:28 AM
    • Markel's (MKL) Tom Gayner added five new stocks to the company portfolio in the last quarter, and he likes fertilizers and private equity, buying 150K shares of Mosaic (MOS) and 70K shares of Potash (POT), 100K shares of Apollo Global (APO), 105K shares of Apollo Group (APOL), and 10K shares of Copart (CPRT). In addition to the Apollo Global purchase, he greatly boosted stakes in KKR, Blackstone (BX), and Carlyle Group (CG).
    • He completely sold out of positions in Quaterra Resources (QMM) and Union First Market Bankshares (UBSH).
    • CarMax (KMX) remains his portfolio's top holding at 8.4%, but Gayner did cut his stake by 1.46%.
    | Comment!
  • Nov. 13, 2013, 5:27 PM
    • Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT) declares $0.35/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
    • Forward yield 4.31%
    • Payable Feb. 6; for shareholders of record Jan 16; ex-div Jan 14.
    | Comment!
  • Nov. 4, 2013, 3:22 PM
    • Potash producers have been reeling, but HSBC thinks the worst of the crisis has passed and prices may rise in the medium term, prompting the firm to upgrade Potash (POT +4.3%), Agrium (AGU +3.9%) and SQM (SQM +5.1%).
    • POT is raised to Neutral from Underweight with a $31 price target, up from $22.50, while AGU to lifted to Overweight from Neutral and a $105 target from $95; Mosaic (MOS +1.2%) is reiterated at Underweight but with a higher target, to $40 from $33.
    • The eventual return of Indian demand means phosphates have the clearest road to recovery of the crop nutrients, the firm believes.
    | 5 Comments
  • Oct. 24, 2013, 3:49 PM
    • In its earnings call, Potash (POT -2.1%) cut its forecast for 2013 world potash shipments to 53M-54M metric ton, down from its previous estimate of nearly 56M metric tons but higher than 2012's 51M; it sees global demand of 55M-58M in 2014.
    • A supply contract between the Canpotex group of North American potash producers and China's Sinofert Holdings likely will be signed in early 2014, according to CEO Bill Doyle.
    • Also, POT does not expect to dip into the debt markets to maintain its dividend program. (Q3 earnings)
    | Comment!
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Company Description
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc is an integrated fertilizer and related industrial and feed products company. It owns and operates five potash mines in Saskatchewan and one in New Brunswick.
Country: Canada