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Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT)

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  • Oct. 24, 2013, 7:58 AM
    • Potash (POT) -1.3% premarket after reporting a 45% Y/Y drop in Q3 earnings as plunging nutrient prices, poor sales volumes and general market uncertainty took a huge toll.
    • Q3 average realized potash price was $307/metric ton vs. $429 in the year-ago quarter; Uralkali warned that prices could fall to $300 when it broke off its partnership with Belaruskali, and it appears that has already happened.
    • Gross profit on potash fell to $228M in Q3 from $554M; sales volumes fell by nearly 500K metric tons.
    • The bad news is not limited to potash, as nitrogen gross profit fell to $178M from $251M a year ago, sales volume rose slightly but the realized price fell to $327/metric ton from $458 a year ago.
    • Phosphate sales volume fell only slightly, but net sales totaled $432M vs. $513M a year ago, and the realized price fell to $467 from $537/metric ton.
    • Cut full-year EPS guidance to $2.00-$2.20 from $2.45-$2.70, below $2.25 analyst consensus.
    | 6 Comments
  • Oct. 24, 2013, 6:02 AM
    • Potash (POT): Q3 EPS of $0.41 in-line.
    • Revenue of $1.52B misses by $0.01B. (PR)
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 22, 2013, 11:22 AM
    • Uralkali (URALL) has been ramping up its potash production significantly as part of its new strategy, independent director Paul Ostling says; the company has said it plans to produce 10.5M tons for the year, up 15% from 2012.
    • While some reports suggest the partnership could be revived, Ostling says it would be difficult to "put Humpty Dumpty back together again" because of deep animosity on both sides, but that it wouldn't be impossible if the right agreements were reached.
    • POT -0.9%, MOS +0.1%, AGU +0.6%, IPI +0.5%, CF -0.1%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 16, 2013, 5:59 PM
    • SQM, Chilean potash producer and exporter of iodine and lithium, has sunk to nearly its cheapest valuation in five years, which analysts say allows Potash (POT), which already owns 32% of the company, its best chance in years of fully taking over.
    • Julio Ponce, also a 32% owner, fended off POT’s 2006 attempt to wrest control of SQM but may become a more willing seller as a stock rout, a trading investigation and further turmoil in the potash industry pressure his finances.
    • While POT’s own stock has dropped, purchasing SQM would allow it to fulfill its strategy of taking control of companies in which it holds stakes.
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 14, 2013, 2:14 PM
    • Russian authorities say they opened a criminal case against the jailed chief executive of potash producer Uralkali (URALL.PK) and are seeking his extradition from Belarus to face charges in Russia, in what could be a face-saving move to defuse the potash rift.
    • Russia's main investigative agency says its review of the case indicates enough evidence to charge the Uralkali chief in Russia, though political analysts doubt he would serve any prison time even if convicted.
    • POT +0.8%, MOS -0.1%, AGU +0.7%, IPI -1.2%, CF +0.6%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 11, 2013, 2:22 PM
    • Potash's (POT -1.5%) downside Q3 guidance shouldn't come as a surprise, particularly after Agrium cut its forecast earlier this week as CEO Mike Wilson said "the soap opera in Russia" was weighing on potash prices.
    • The revision reflects "acute market uncertainty" battering global potash markets, Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen says; with potash prices moving sharply lower across most importing regions, “buyers seem intent on deferring purchases with the hope of securing lower prices and improved macro visibility in the future.”
    • But analysts say competition among suppliers is intensifying amid negotiations with the Chinese who are among the top potash buyers, pointing to a further fall in prices.
    • Also, MOS -2.1%, AGU +1%, IPI -0.2%, CF -1%, SQM -2.1%.
    | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 10, 2013, 7:24 PM
    • Potash (POT) expects to report Q3 EPS of $0.41, below prior guidance of $0.45-$0.60 and a $0.47 consensus. (PR)
    • The company says the shortfall is primarily due to "lower than forecasted potash sales volumes late in the quarter as buyers continued to defer significant purchases amidst near-term market uncertainty." Full Q3 results arrive on Oct. 24.
    | 4 Comments
  • Oct. 8, 2013, 3:36 PM
    • The Russian potash "soap opera" could weigh on prices until demand rises substantially or producers shut some capacity, Agrium (AGU -3.7%) CEO Mike Wilson says at the fertilizer company's investor day.
    • The structure of the potash market has to go back to where it was before Russia's Uralkali quit its export partnership with Belaruskali, and some producers need to shut capacity, or demand has to soar above 60M metric tons, Wilson says; otherwise, prices will remain under pressure.
    • POT -1.1%, MOS -0.3%, CF -2.5%, IPI -3.4%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 7, 2013, 6:13 PM
    • Mosaic (MOS) lowers its outlook for 2013 global potash shipments, citing weaker demand in India and a delay in settling a second-half contract between its export agency Canpotex and China's Sinofert Holdings.
    • CFO Larry Stranghoener says he sees global potash shipments of 54M-55M metric ton, down from its previous estimate of 55M-57M metric tons but higher than 2012's 51M; by 2014, global shipments should rebound to 57M-59M.
    • MOS, Potash (POT) and Agrium (AGU) sell potash to offshore markets through the Canpotex export consortium.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 2 Comments
  • Oct. 3, 2013, 9:47 AM
    • Global potash prices will stay above $300/metric ton but likely will fall further this year, bottoming out in early 2014 when supply contracts for top global consumer China are set, and rebounding thereafter, according to Uralkali's (URALL.PK) head of sales.
    • He gives no current average price, but says the domestic price in China of ~$330/metric ton delivered at the border was a "guideline" for the company's rail supplies.
    • Recent reports have said a large stake in Uralkali could be sold to one of several local bidders, but sources tell Reuters that no buyers are close to a deal now.
    • POT +0.5%; MOS +0.1%; AGU, which named a new CEO, +1.2%; IPI -0.4%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 2, 2013, 2:02 PM
    • Agriculture and potash names are moving higher following a WSJ story suggesting a large stake in Russian potash giants Uralkali (URALL.PK +3.3%) likely will be sold to one of several local investors bidding for the company.
    • Sources say the Kremlin is eager to repair the rift with Belarus that led to the collapse of the informal global potash cartel and has made clear to potential bidders that some kind of sales cooperation with the country - a close Russian ally - should be restored after any deal.
    • POT +3%, MOS +3.6%, AGU +2.2%, IPI +3.4%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 5 Comments
  • Sep. 30, 2013, 3:29 PM
    • Indian Potash says it has renegotiated an annual contract for the import of ~1M metric tons of potash at a 12%-plus discount following the breakup of a global fertilizer grouping led by Russia's Uralkali (URALL.PK), which says it is now pursuing a volume-over-price strategy.
    • Indian potash importers, who form the second biggest buyer group after China, sought discounts on their current contracts following the breakup and said the slide in the rupee vs. the dollar since May had made imports more expensive for them.
    • POT -1.1%, MOS -1%, AGU -1.3%, IPI -0.6%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 2 Comments
  • Sep. 26, 2013, 7:53 AM
    • The CEO of Russian potash producer Uralkali (URALL.PK) is released from a Belarusian prison and placed under house arrest, signaling that the dispute over potash price may be nearing an end.
    • The transfer to house arrest comes as Russian Pres. Putin is scheduled to meet today with Belarus Pres. Lukashenko and after Russia's prosecutor general met with his Belarus counterpart earlier this week.
    • Stocks to watch: POT, MOS, AGU, IPI.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | Comment!
  • Sep. 24, 2013, 10:20 AM
    • Potash stocks are lower after China acquired a 12.5% stake in Russian potash producer Uralkali (URALL.PK -1.4%), a deal that could put new pressure on prices and reduce the chances of the Russia-Belarus cartel being revived.
    • The deal could strengthen China's position in negotiations with other producers; China imports ~6M metric tons/year of potash, more than 10% of global demand, and the Chinese potash price is considered the global benchmark.
    • The deal also could give Uralkali an upper hand in selling potash in the Chinese market ahead of Canpotex, the North American potash cartel owned by Potash (POT -1.4%), Mosaic (MOS -1.4%) and Agrium (AGU -0.8%).
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 2 Comments
  • Sep. 19, 2013, 2:26 PM
    • The president of Belarus hints for the first time at a possible resolution in the potash fight that has rocked global markets, suggesting he is open to the idea of sending the jailed Uralkali (URALL.PK) CEO back to Russia for prosecution there.
    • Belarus officials reportedly issued a copy of their case file against the CEO to Russian authorities last week as the first step in possibly sending him back to Russia, where he could stand trial without being held in custody.
    • Analysts say while a settlement in the potash case may be close, it is unclear if a renewed partnership would ever be able to restore the market to where it was.
    • POT -2.1%, MOS -1.3%, AGU -1.1%, IPI -3.9%, SQM -1.4%.
    | 1 Comment
  • Sep. 18, 2013, 10:41 AM
    • Belarus is not willing to lower its potash prices as a cut would cause losses, a top government official says in comments viewed as raising the chance of reviving a sales cartel with Russia.
    • Belarus is willing to cooperate with Uralkali (URALL.PK) in the future "in any format," the official says, when asked if the country would consider forming a new joint venture with the Russian firm; "our cooperation [with Uralkali] was a positive experience."
    • POT -0.2%, MOS -0.2%, AGU -0.2%, IPI +0.4%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 1 Comment
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Company Description
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc is an integrated fertilizer and related industrial and feed products company. It owns and operates five potash mines in Saskatchewan and one in New Brunswick.
Country: Canada