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Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT)

  • Dec. 4, 2013, 3:59 PM
    • Fertilizer equities are higher following new coverage from RBC Capital, which prefers Mosaic (MOS +3.2%) and Agrium (AGU +2.4%) in the sector.
    • MOS and AGU are rated Outperform thanks to to a recent trend toward "improving demand in the potash and phosphate markets" and an expectation for "substantial" returns to holders over the next few years; MOS' solid position in the phosphate market could better position it if others are interested in its potash assets.
    • Potash (POT +1.3%), CF Industries (CF +10.7%) and Intrepid Potash (IPI +2.4%) are each started with Hold ratings.
    • Also impacting the ag names is news that CF is working with investment banks about creating an MLP.
    | Dec. 4, 2013, 3:59 PM | Comment!
  • Dec. 4, 2013, 3:52 PM
    • A bounce in potash markets is possible next year, assuming China steps back into the market and Russia and Belarus paper over differences that have disrupted the market, Potash Corp. (POT +1.4%) says at the Citi basic materials conference.
    • A supply contract in Q1 2014 between China and Canpotex - the export arm of Potash, Mosaic (MOS +3.3%) and Agrium (AGU +2.5%) - would set a price floor, then Indian buyers might lock in prices with Canpotex, followed by deals in other markets, setting up a chance for a "nice bounce" in H1 of next year, POT CFO Wayne Brownlee says.
    • POT says its decision to cut its workforce by ~18% will lead to cost reductions across the board; it anticipates a one-time cash charge in Q4 of ~$70M.
    | Dec. 4, 2013, 3:52 PM | 1 Comment
  • Dec. 3, 2013, 6:15 PM
    • The layoffs and production cuts announced by Potash (POT) illustrate the key problem in the fertilizer sector: There has been no potash demand growth for six years while supply has been growing.
    • The job cuts have nothing to do with Uralkali's move to produce at full capacity, POT CEO Bill Doyle says; it's about demand weakness across all nutrients that began well before the chaos caused by Uralkali.
    • The two most important emerging markets for fertilizer are China and India, and demand is far lower than anticipated in both.
    • Barclays views the planned cuts as "a good and needed move" in response to the ills plaguing the industry.
    • Other fertilizer producers: MOS, AGU, IPI, CF, SQM.
    | Dec. 3, 2013, 6:15 PM | 8 Comments
  • Dec. 3, 2013, 6:59 AM
    • Potash Corp. (POT) intends to lower its workforce by 18% in the U.S., Canada and Trinidad, due to sluggish fertilizer demand in developing markets.
    • In total, Potash will cut 1,045 jobs and expects to take severance charges of $70M.
    • The company will suspend output at one of its Lanigan mills and cut production at its Cory facility by the year-end, and halt output at its Penobsquis facility by Q1.
    • Potash forecasts 2014 capacity of over 10M tons.
    • Expects potash cost savings of $15-20 a ton in 2014 and targets $20-30 by 2016. For phosphate, the firm projects annualized improvements in gross margins of $10-15.
    • Shares +0.4% premarket. (PR)
    | Dec. 3, 2013, 6:59 AM | 2 Comments
  • Nov. 22, 2013, 3:21 PM
    • The end of the uncertainty weighing on Potash (POT +0.1%) and Mosaic (MOS +2.2%) may be at hand, J.P. Morgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas writes, believing the point of Uralkali's (URALL) ownership change is the alteration of its go-to-market strategy, and an execution of a change in strategy should raise the value of POT and MOS given their sensitivity to changes in product prices.
    • POT and MOS are "undervalued," the firm says: Both companies have replacement values nearly twice their current share prices, POT has a 7.5%-8% sustainable free cash flow yield following the conclusion of its large potash capacity expansion, and MOS has a large share repurchase program it plans to execute beginning at the end of this month.
    | Nov. 22, 2013, 3:21 PM | 18 Comments
  • Nov. 21, 2013, 7:58 AM
    • Belarus agrees to extradite Uralkali (URALL) CEO Vladislav Baumgertner to Russia, days after a buyer was found for the stake of Uralkali’s biggest owner.
    • At least one analyst thinks Baumgertner will resign; a lot depends on the attitude of the Belarus president toward him, and "given that it may be not warm, it would be easier for Uralkali to negotiate the terms of the new trading venture with Belarus with another CEO.”
    • Baumgertner was arrested in August and spent a month in a Belarusian jail after he withdrew his company from a joint venture with potash supplier Belaruskali.
    • Related tickers: POT, MOS, AGU, SQM, IPI.
    | Nov. 21, 2013, 7:58 AM | Comment!
  • Nov. 18, 2013, 3:31 PM
    • The EPA's proposal to reduce ethanol mandate requirements represents a setback for fertilizer producers, Cowen analysts say; the reduction could negatively impact corn markets, driving prices below $3.50/bushel which in turn also would impact demand and pricing for fertilizers (
    • The firm believes the proposed changes present setbacks for corn growers and fertilizer producers of all types but especially nitrogen producers, since nitrogen is applied heavily to corn acres and soybeans get a negligible application of nitrogen.
    • Cowen foresees a negative impact on POT, AGU, MOS, IPI and to a greater extent on CF, RNF and UAN.
    | Nov. 18, 2013, 3:31 PM | Comment!
  • Nov. 18, 2013, 4:12 AM
    • Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov - owner of the Brooklyn Nets - has agreed to acquire a 21.75% stake in Uralkali (URALL), the world's biggest potash miner, from the company's main owner, Dagestani tycoon Suleyman Kerimov.
    • Kerimov and his partners own a third of Uralkali, while China Investment Corp, China's sovereign wealth fund, purchased a 12.5% holding in September.
    • Uralkali caused turmoil in the potash markets after it ended its joint venture with Belarusian state-owned miner Belaruskali in July. The JV, called Belarusian Potash Co, controlled around 40% of the global market and so had a major influences on prices.
    • Following the breakup, Belarus arrested Uralkali CEO Vladislav Baumgertner in August, since when he has been in jail or under house arrest. (Previous)
    • Related tickers: POT, MOS, AGU, SQM, IPI.
    • Related ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | Nov. 18, 2013, 4:12 AM | 6 Comments
  • Nov. 15, 2013, 9:40 AM
    • Suleiman Kerimov and his business partners, who jointly control ~33% of potash maker Uralkali (URALL), may reach an agreement to sell the stake as soon as next week, Bloomberg reports.
    • Mikhail Prokhorov’s Onexim Group is the front-runner to take control, according to the report; the stake has a value of ~$5B.
    • POT +1%, MOS +0.8%, AGU +0.3%, SQM +0.2%, IPI +0.2%.
    | Nov. 15, 2013, 9:40 AM | 5 Comments
  • Nov. 14, 2013, 10:28 AM
    • Markel's (MKL) Tom Gayner added five new stocks to the company portfolio in the last quarter, and he likes fertilizers and private equity, buying 150K shares of Mosaic (MOS) and 70K shares of Potash (POT), 100K shares of Apollo Global (APO), 105K shares of Apollo Group (APOL), and 10K shares of Copart (CPRT). In addition to the Apollo Global purchase, he greatly boosted stakes in KKR, Blackstone (BX), and Carlyle Group (CG).
    • He completely sold out of positions in Quaterra Resources (QMM) and Union First Market Bankshares (UBSH).
    • CarMax (KMX) remains his portfolio's top holding at 8.4%, but Gayner did cut his stake by 1.46%.
    | Nov. 14, 2013, 10:28 AM | Comment!
  • Nov. 13, 2013, 5:27 PM
    • Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT) declares $0.35/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
    • Forward yield 4.31%
    • Payable Feb. 6; for shareholders of record Jan 16; ex-div Jan 14.
    | Nov. 13, 2013, 5:27 PM | Comment!
  • Nov. 4, 2013, 3:22 PM
    • Potash producers have been reeling, but HSBC thinks the worst of the crisis has passed and prices may rise in the medium term, prompting the firm to upgrade Potash (POT +4.3%), Agrium (AGU +3.9%) and SQM (SQM +5.1%).
    • POT is raised to Neutral from Underweight with a $31 price target, up from $22.50, while AGU to lifted to Overweight from Neutral and a $105 target from $95; Mosaic (MOS +1.2%) is reiterated at Underweight but with a higher target, to $40 from $33.
    • The eventual return of Indian demand means phosphates have the clearest road to recovery of the crop nutrients, the firm believes.
    | Nov. 4, 2013, 3:22 PM | 5 Comments
  • Oct. 24, 2013, 3:49 PM
    • In its earnings call, Potash (POT -2.1%) cut its forecast for 2013 world potash shipments to 53M-54M metric ton, down from its previous estimate of nearly 56M metric tons but higher than 2012's 51M; it sees global demand of 55M-58M in 2014.
    • A supply contract between the Canpotex group of North American potash producers and China's Sinofert Holdings likely will be signed in early 2014, according to CEO Bill Doyle.
    • Also, POT does not expect to dip into the debt markets to maintain its dividend program. (Q3 earnings)
    | Oct. 24, 2013, 3:49 PM | Comment!
  • Oct. 24, 2013, 7:58 AM
    • Potash (POT) -1.3% premarket after reporting a 45% Y/Y drop in Q3 earnings as plunging nutrient prices, poor sales volumes and general market uncertainty took a huge toll.
    • Q3 average realized potash price was $307/metric ton vs. $429 in the year-ago quarter; Uralkali warned that prices could fall to $300 when it broke off its partnership with Belaruskali, and it appears that has already happened.
    • Gross profit on potash fell to $228M in Q3 from $554M; sales volumes fell by nearly 500K metric tons.
    • The bad news is not limited to potash, as nitrogen gross profit fell to $178M from $251M a year ago, sales volume rose slightly but the realized price fell to $327/metric ton from $458 a year ago.
    • Phosphate sales volume fell only slightly, but net sales totaled $432M vs. $513M a year ago, and the realized price fell to $467 from $537/metric ton.
    • Cut full-year EPS guidance to $2.00-$2.20 from $2.45-$2.70, below $2.25 analyst consensus.
    | Oct. 24, 2013, 7:58 AM | 6 Comments
  • Oct. 24, 2013, 6:02 AM
    • Potash (POT): Q3 EPS of $0.41 in-line.
    • Revenue of $1.52B misses by $0.01B. (PR)
    | Oct. 24, 2013, 6:02 AM | Comment!
  • Oct. 22, 2013, 11:22 AM
    • Uralkali (URALL) has been ramping up its potash production significantly as part of its new strategy, independent director Paul Ostling says; the company has said it plans to produce 10.5M tons for the year, up 15% from 2012.
    • While some reports suggest the partnership could be revived, Ostling says it would be difficult to "put Humpty Dumpty back together again" because of deep animosity on both sides, but that it wouldn't be impossible if the right agreements were reached.
    • POT -0.9%, MOS +0.1%, AGU +0.6%, IPI +0.5%, CF -0.1%.
    | Oct. 22, 2013, 11:22 AM | 1 Comment
POT vs. ETF Alternatives
Company Description
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc is an integrated fertilizer and related industrial and feed products company. It owns and operates five potash mines in Saskatchewan and one in New Brunswick.
Country: Canada