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Sunday, May 19, 9:52 AM There is no precedent for the current market, writes The Fat Pitch. Consider: 1) The S&P (SPY) has been up 56 of 88 trading sessions this year 2) It's up an uncorrected 24% since the post-election low - the longest streak in over 3 decades 3) The Nasdaq (QQQ) is on pace for a 7th straight up month, an occurrence with a 3-in-100 probability. Long term it's bullish, writes Ukarlewitz, as this sort of strength is rarely the end of a trend. Short term? Stay nimble. 51 Comments
Thursday, May 16, 7:38 AM Cisco (CSCO) is now up 9.4% premarket following last night's earnings and guidance. Lazard's Ryan Hitchinson notes guidance was light, but likely beat a lot of the whispers out there. He also believes management is remaining conservative amid improving demand trends. A bellwether no more, Cisco's moonshot is having little effect on the QQQs, which are barely green at the moment. 6 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Tuesday, May 14, 8:03 AM More from Tepper: "We're going to get this hyper-drive market," unless the Fed starts tapering its purchases, he says (referencing 1999), adding the June meeting wouldn't be a bad time to get started. He pulls out this chart from a recent FRBNY report, showing stocks remain cheap - the equity premium to bonds is as high as it's been in the last 50 years. 16 Comments
Tuesday, May 14, 7:52 AM Tepper stays bullish. Confounding gnomes who whispered the hedge fund honcho was turning cautious on stocks, David Tepper tells the CNBC crew the wave of liquidity that turned him bullish in the first place is getting even bigger. Fed tapering? So what, he says. The U.S. budget deficit over the next 6 months will only be $100B, while the Fed is scheduled to buy about $500B. That's $400B coming out of the bond market and going to investors who can buy more fixed-income, more real estate, more stocks. SPY erases losses and gets back to flat premarket. 11 Comments [Breaking News]
Wednesday, April 24, 10:10 AM Turning 10 this week, the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) has outperformed the SPY by 5,900 basis points since its launch. The RSP was one of the pioneers of equal-weighting - created in the aftermath of the 2000 bust to give investors exposure to stocks without so high a focus on large caps (the so-called "Cisco effect"). It's time for a renaming to the "Apple effect" as QQQE - the Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted ETF - has outperformed the QQQ by 850 bps YTD. 3 Comments
Friday, April 19, 9:52 AM Most stocks are higher in early trade, but big moves in big names are dragging key indexes. IBM -6.4%, GE -3.9%, McDonald's -2.2% are hurting the Dow (DIA -0.3%) following earnings. H-P -5.5% as Blackstone looked under the hood of the PC business and said "no thank you." Down 1.3%, Apple is capping the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ +0.4%). Comment!
Thursday, April 18, 1:08 PM Stocks have bounced off their worst levels, but remain lower in afternoon trade. Tech (QQQ -1%) shows particular weakness, with Apple dug in below $400 and Google off 1.8%. Verizon, however, is an area of tech sector strength, +3.7% following earnings. S&P 500 down just 0.3%. 1 Comment
Friday, April 12, 8:45 AM The 10-year Treasury yield falls 5 basis points on the session to 1.74% following the weak retail sales print. TLT +1.1% premarket, with the last month's big rally in bond prices bringing it back to flat YTD. S&P 500 (SPY) futures dip to a session-low, -0.5%. The QQQs off 0.5% premarket. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, April 11, 7:03 PM The pace at which new technologies are disrupting companies makes it dangerous to be a value investor, argues VC Ashvin Bachireddy. As mobile devices, cloud software, e-commerce, and much else upends old business models, investing in a BlackBerry or an OfficeMax/Office Depot due to a low P/E can prove painful. "While there may still be opportunities for value investing, you need to be cautious of businesses that appear to be on a slow decline." His remarks seem prescient in light of what happened today to several PC-related names with low multiples. 14 Comments [Tech, Consumer, Quick Ideas]
Thursday, April 4, 7:06 AM Stock index futures (SPY +0.4%, QQQ +0.4%) post gains after the BOJ outdoes the Fed with the breadth of its stimulative efforts. The Nikkei's 3.2% gain looks even more impressive when considering the index was off 2.3% before the central bank announcement. DXJ +4% premarket. Comment!
Tuesday, March 26, 10:50 PM Sentiment indicators tend to work best at bottoms, writes The Fat Pitch, but it doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to what's become a bit of froth in the bull camp. Low cash levels, rising margin debt, prominent bears capitulating, and the return of the Dow 36K crew have been well-documented. One you might not have heard of is the Canadian equivalent of Time screaming "BUY!" on its cover. 3 Comments
Thursday, March 21, 10:48 AM Jefferies' David Zervos has been as apocalyptic as they come (I, II) with regards to Cyprus, and his latest note says the country's eurozone exit (now openly talked about at the EU's highest levels) could be a Lehman-style systemic event. He sees about a 20% chance of such next week. "The risk/reward for chips on the table stinks; that's why I'm on the sidelines." 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Wednesday, March 13, 10:24 AM The percentage of bears in the Investors Intelligence poll declines to 18.8%. It's the first time below 20 since May 2011, and dips below 20 marked market tops in 2010 and 2011, notes a usually bullish Ryan Detrick. "Be aware." 7 Comments
Tuesday, March 12, 3:13 PM Soaring margin debt (and plunging cash balances) trigger a sell signal at BAML, which says the last time this big a move happend was April 2010 - just ahead of a 2-month, 16% decline in SPY. Alongside this is short-term sentiment which has risen to levels consistent with selloffs in the past. 25 Comments
Tuesday, March 12, 10:35 AM Is March 2013 90s month on the Street? Joining the Dow 36K guys in reemerging is Jeremy Siegel, calling for Dow 16K-17K this year and 18K in 2014. It's the old "cash on the sidelines" argument - it never goes out of style. "Take a mental note - at a point where investors can't possibly imagine how stock prices could decline," wrote John Hussman last week. 4 Comments
Thursday, March 7, 3:33 PM "Take a mental note - at a point where investors can't possibly imagine how stock prices could decline. This is what euphoria looks like," tweets John Hussman as the Dow 36,000 authors reemerge, Richard Bernstein says 2013 looks like 1982, and Richard Russell can't believe the bullish patterns he's seeing. 11 Comments

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ProShares Short QQQ ETF