Wed, Feb. 11, 3:58 PM
- Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD -3.9%) has been pummeled today after reporting disappointing Q4 results that missed estimates on production, earnings and cash flow, and providing weak 2015 production guidance; PXD also said it would cut 2015 capex by 45% to $1.85B because of low oil prices.
- In response, Barclays downgraded shares to Underweight with a $97 price target, saying the guidance implies that PXD would not be able to grow at an oil price of less than $70/bbl if it were not hedged.
- Most analysts maintained their Hold or Market Perform ratings but were surprised by the extent of the 2015 budget reductions; only Credit Suisse, with an Outperform rating and $170 price target, sounded optimistic, focusing on the positive rate of change in well performance, a key factor enhancing capital efficiency.
- For WSJ's Liam Denning, PXD is "pointing the way to a new - and subdued - normal for oil prices," noting that the company emphasized it would bring rigs back on and raise output if oil recovers sustainably this year.
Wed, Feb. 11, 9:13 AM
Tue, Feb. 3, 2:49 PM
- Veteran energy analyst Christopher Eades recommends a half-dozen safe oil majors, oilfield services firms and transport MLPs as the best bets to ride out the current storm - Halliburton (HAL +4%), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD +2.2%), Hess (HES +3.2%), Occidental Petroleum (OXY +2.1%), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD +1.4%) and Plains All American Pipeline (PAA +2.4%) - all companies with strong balance sheets, strong growth prospects, and healthy yield levels with no dividend cuts on the table.
- Eades says he is "more enthusiastic about MLPs than I've been in some time," as the group has essentially given up two years’ worth of gains yet cash flow fundamentals have been largely unchanged - "to me, that sounds like a good opportunity, particularly in a world still so starved for yield."
Wed, Jan. 28, 3:59 PM
- Energy stocks are broadly lower as Nymex crude oil futures fell another $1.68/bbl (-3.6%) to $44.53 after today's inventory report showed the largest weekly supply buildup since 1982, but drilling contractor are whacked with especially large losses.
- Examples: NBR -11.7%, PTEN -8.6%, PES -10.9%, PDS -12.3%, KEG -6.5%; Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP), which reportedly has launched a round of steep layoffs, -6.3%.
- Among independent producers: DNR -9.7%, NFX -4.6%, SM -8.6%, SGY -10%, SD -9.7%, EOG -5.3%, PXD -6.8%, QEP -6%, APC -4.2%, XEC -3%.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Mon, Jan. 12, 3:17 PM
- Goldman Sachs upgrades a few energy stocks even as it cast a pall of gloom over most of the sector today (I, II, III), raising Chesapeake Energy (CHK -3.6%) to Buy from Neutral and Parsley Energy (PE -4.2%) to Neutral from Sell as potential "shale sale" winners.
- Despite PE's relative vulnerability to lower oil prices because of its weak balance sheet and negative projected free cash, Goldman has more confidence that its core Permian Basin position makes it an attractive M&A target.
- Among potential "shale scale" winners - companies that either can build positions in the core and reduce costs of capital - the firm's favorites remain EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Range Resources (NYSE:RRC), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE:COG) and Concho Resources (NYSE:CXO).
- However, Goldman cuts Bill Barrett (BBG -8.3%) to Sell from Neutral, seeing greater downside risk to its production in a lower oil price environment, and lowers Eclipse Resources (ECR -1.5%) to Neutral from Buy due to a persistently wide funding gap through 2017 coupled with a weak balance sheet.
Tue, Jan. 6, 4:38 PM
- Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) -3.2% AH after saying severe winter weather in west Texas has significantly disrupted production and drilling operations in the Spraberry/Wolfcamp area; PXD expects an extensive recovery period, with several weeks needed before the full impact can be determined.
- The area suffered from heavy icing and freezing temperatures at the start of January that has resulted in extensive power outages, facility freeze-ups, trucking curtailments and limited access to production and drilling facilities; Q4 production was not affected.
- Separately, PXD says it has converted ~85% of its 2015 oil derivative contracts from three-way collars to fixed-price swaps, and its 2015 fixed-price oil swaps cover 82K bbl/day of production at an average of $71.18/bbl.
Dec. 22, 2014, 10:45 AM
- Natural gas prices fall 9.5% to near two-year lows at $3.133/mmBtu, in the biggest one-day percentage loss since February and the lowest intraday price since January 2013, on mild weather forecasts and inventory that is above year-ago levels.
- Prices are now down more than 15% in three straight losing sessions and are 30% lower than the six-month high closing price of $4.489/mmBtu it hit just a month ago.
- Weather has been unseasonably warm for December, limiting demand for home heating and allowing relatively low stockpiles to catch up to where they were a year ago and encouraging traders to sell based on the belief that supply is relatively healthy.
- Gas producers are among the biggest early decliners: XOM -1.1%, CHK -7.3%, APC -2.6%, SWN -6%, DVN -2.2%, COP -2.3%, BP -1.5%, COG -4%, BHP -1.9%, CVX -1.3%, ECA -5.1%, EQT -4.3%, RDS.A -1.7%, UPL -12%, WPX -6.9%, EOG -1%, OXY -1.1%, RRC -6.1%, APA -2.3%, AR -3.2%, CNX -3%, QEP -4.8%, LINE -4.9%, NBL -1.6%, SM -2.6%, XEC -4.2%, PXD -2.9%, NFX -5.1%.
- ETFs: UNG, DGAZ, UGAZ, BOIL, GAZ, FCG, GASL, KOLD, UNL, NAGS, DCNG
Dec. 3, 2014, 11:32 AM
- The energy sector (XLE +1.5%) continues its momentum from yesterday, leading the way again as the best performing sector in early trading with crude oil rising 1.2% so far today and reports that U.S. well permits fell 40% last month.
- Top performers include Clayton Williams (CWEI +7.7%), Transocean Partners (RIGP +10.6%), Gaslog (GLOG +13.8%) and Energy XXI (EXXI +15.7%).
- Other leading energy names are showing stronger recoveries as they clear last Friday's bearish gap zone: XOM +0.2%, CVX +0.4%, COP +2.5%, OXY +2.5%, DVN +2.9%, EOG +2.5%, HES +2.2%, MUR +1.5%, NBL +2.3%, PXD +4.2%, SU +3%, CNQ +1.9%.
- Some analysts warn that the worst may not be over, however, as much of the advance is being driven by investors repurchasing ETFs they used to make short bets; investors also could opt to sell oil shares at a loss in coming weeks to reduce tax burdens.
Nov. 28, 2014, 7:25 AM
- OPEC yesterday decided to hold production numbers despite the bear market in oil. WTI crude is down about $5 per barrel to $69.
- A premarket look at the top 10 holdings of the XLE: Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) -4.1%, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) -4.1%, Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) -4.6%, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) -4.4%, EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) -4.3%, Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) -4.8%, Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) -4.3%, Haliburton (NYSE:HAL) -4.7%, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) -5%, Williams Companies (NYSE:WMB) -1.6%.
- ETFs: ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, PBW, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, QCLN, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, PSCE, RYE, PUW, FXN, DDG, HECO
Nov. 5, 2014, 8:32 AM
- Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) -4.2% premarket after announcing plans to sell its Eagle Ford Shale Midstream venture with India’s Reliance Industries (OTC:RLNIY); the two companies will sell their stakes in a joint process.
- PXD says the divestment will allow it to redeploy capital to its core oil-rich Spraberry/Wolfcamp assets in the Permian Basin of west Texas.
- Based on a $100M cash flow estimate from the Midstream venture for next year, PXD's interest could be valued as high as $1.2B.
- PXD says it is not selling its Eagle Ford exploration business it owns with Reliance, in which PXD holds a 46% stake, Reliance 45%, and Newpek LLC the remaining 9%.
- Separately, PXD said Q3 earnings rose to $2.58/share from $0.65 a year earlier, and announces plans to sell 5.75M common shares in a public offering.
Sep. 8, 2014, 12:32 PM
- The day's five biggest decliners in the S&P 500 are all energy companies - Newfield Exploration (NFX -5.6%), EOG Resources (EOG -3.6%), Anadarko Petroleum (APC -2.9%), Cimarex Energy (XEC -3.3%) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD -3.4%) - as crude oil prices slide to new lows, including Brent crude's first move below $100/bbl in more than a year.
- Brent crude dropped $1.12, or 1.1%, to $99.70/bbl after falling to as low as $99.36, a 16-month low, while U.S. crude slipped more than a percent to below $92 after settling at $93.29 on Friday for its sixth weekly drop in seven.
- Traders are concerned crude demand won't keep up, with data from the U.S. and China, the world's top oil consumers, suggesting their economies aren't growing as quickly as had been hoped.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, XOP, BNO, DTO, DBO, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, DBE, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, RJN, SZO, OLO, JJE, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, UBN
Aug. 5, 2014, 2:48 PM
- Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD -5%) is defended by Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Singer, who maintains a Buy rating on the shares and lifts his price target to $266 from $257 after a "noisy" Q2 but with 2015 growth on track.
- While total production beat expectations, oil was lighter as vertical Permian wells that were returned to production at flush rates in Q1 declined in Q2; oil comprised 63% of Permian production vs. 68% in Q1, but the firm views the 67% 2013 average as more normal and expects an oilier mix as horizontal growth rises.
- The firm remains confident in PXD's growth, with H2 ramp-up the first key test; PXD raised its 2014 production growth to 16%-19% from 14%-19% and maintained its three-year compound annual growth rate at 16%-21%, warranting a double-digit multiple.
Jun. 25, 2014, 10:18 AM
- Refiners take a beating in early trading, as a lift of the ban on U.S. oil exports is expected to narrow the WTI-Brent spread, which could cause refiners' profits drop if they are forced to pay higher prices to compete with international buyers for U.S. crude.
- “We don’t think the current system needs to be changed,” Valero Energy tells Bloomberg.
- Yesterday's rulings gave Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD +2.6%) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD +1.4%) permission to ship ultralight oil to foreign buyers - a narrow ruling, but one that is likely to spark similar requests from other companies, and increase lobbying for a full lifting of the 40-year-old ban on exporting crude oil.
- Refining stocks are broadly lower: VLO -7.4%, PBF -5.8%, MPC -5.7%, WNR -5.5%, DK -5.4%, HFC -4.6%, ALDW -4.6%, TSO -3.8%, NTI -3.5%, PSX -2.9%, ALJ -2.7%, CVI -2.3%.
Jun. 24, 2014, 6:20 PM
- Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) +4.2% AH and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) +1% after WSJ reports the U.S. government has taken steps to allow the two companies to export condensate that could be turned into jet fuel or diesel.
- Under current rules, companies can export refined fuel, such as gasoline and diesel, but not oil itself; the government's new approach reportedly redefines some ultra-light oil as fuel after it has been minimally processed, making it eligible for sale abroad.
- The first shipments - which could begin as soon as August - likely will be small but ultimately could include much of the 3M bbl/day of oil energy companies are pumping from shale, industry experts say, depending on how regulators define what qualifies for export.
May. 29, 2014, 2:56 PM
- Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD +3.9%) powers higher after FBR Capital raises its price target to $275 from $250 to reflect expectations of positive drilling results.
- FBR says its visit with the company added to its comfort with the existing assessment of material NAV and production growth upside for the platform; FBR believes production growth over the next three to five years could be materially higher than guidance and expectations.
- Jim Cramer reminds viewers that PXD owns ~20K potential drilling locations, ensuring it can sustain high production growth rates for years.
May. 6, 2014, 6:59 PM
- Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) +2.7% AH after posting better than expected Q1 earnings and revenues thanks to continued success at tight-oil fields in Texas.
- Q1 production rose 5% Y/Y to 172K boe/day, primarily driven by successful Spraberry/Wolfcamp and Eagle Ford Shale horizontal drilling programs and the full recovery of weather-related production curtailments during Q4; continues to forecast 2014 production growth of 14%-19% based on $3B planned drilling capex.
- Increased its drilling rig program in the northern Spraberry/Wolfcamp to 16 horizontal rigs from five at year-end 2013; total horizontal wells placed on production in the Spraberry/Wolfcamp and Eagle Ford Shale are expected to increase to 175 in H2 from 125 in H1.
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