Mon, Sep. 28, 3:36 PM
- Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Adam Parker is waving the white flag on the energy sector, confessing that he and his team "made a really bad call" by going overweight on the group at the beginning of this year.
- Parker now says the supply glut in oil may not improve for another year, at a minimum, and that investors may find a better entry point in 6-9 months.
- "We thought the falling rig count would be a catalyst to spark a dream of higher oil," Parker explains. "We now think rig counts aren’t the way to think about it - it is production, and production isn’t down really at all in the U.S."
- Parker's mea culpa comes as energy stocks are whacked today, with WTI crude -2.8% to $44.43/bbl as signs of slowing global economic growth continue to spark worries about the outlook for energy demand; XLE -3.8%, with E&P (NYSEARCA:XOP) stocks down more than 5% and oil service stocks (NYSEARCA:OIH) off nearly 4%.
- Other ETFs: VDE, ERX, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, BGR, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, FENY, PXE, PXI, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG
Tue, Jul. 14, 8:12 AM
- Crude oil prices tumble as Iran reaches a nuclear deal with the group of six nations led by the U.S., raising the prospect of a doubling of Iranian oil exports into a world already awash with crude.
- Brent crude -0.8% to $57.40/bbl, while WTI crude futures -1.1% at $51.66/bbl, both well off earlier lows.
- The IEA believes Iran could raise production by 600K-800K bbl/day within months of sanctions being lifted, but there is considerable debate over the impact the lifting of sanctions would have on oil prices.
- The accord "doesn’t mean new Iranian oil overnight," says Energy Aspects analyst Amrita Sen. "The sanctions will take time to be lifted, Iran’s upstream has been neglected for years so the companies will take time before they go back in and they’re able to stabilize production."
- Major global oil producers are modestly lower in premarket trading.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, XLE, UCO, UWTI, VDE, ERX, OIH, SCO, XOP, BNO, DBO, DWTI, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DTO, DUG, BGR, USL, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DNO, FENY, PXE, PXI, PXJ, FIF, OLO, SZO, NDP, RYE, FXN, OLEM, DDG, GUSH, DRIP
Tue, May 26, 2:53 PM
- Energy and natural resources stocks are among today's weakest performers as a sharp increase in the dollar destabilized commodity markets.
- Nymex crude oil futures fell 2.8% to its lowest level in a week at $58.03/bbl, while Comex gold fell 1.4% to a two-week low $1,186.90/oz., as upbeat U.S. data on new home sales and consumer confidence helped lift the dollar.
- Adding to oil price weakness was commentary from Goldman Sachs expecting the global oil market to be oversupplied by 1.9M bbl/day this quarter, saying "the market now depends on how U.S. producers will respond to the recent rally and whether low-cost producers can sustainably deliver higher production."
- ETFs: GDX, USO, NUGT, OIL, XLE, GGN, DUST, UCO, SIL, UWTI, VDE, ERX, OIH, SCO, XOP, BNO, DBO, UGL, DWTI, ERY, GLDX, DGP, DIG, GLL, DTO, UGLD, DZZ, DUG, BGR, USL, XES, IYE, GLDI, SGDM, IEO, BCX, ASA, SLVP, IEZ, DGL, DNO, DGZ, RING, FENY, PXE, DGLD, PXI, HAP, FIF, PXJ, IRV, PSAU, OLO, SZO, NDP, MXI, RYE, GNR, FXN, TGLDX, GUNR, TBAR, GEUR, UBG, GYEN, BAR, TWTI, OLEM, DDG
Wed, Apr. 8, 3:48 AM
- European energy shares are having a party in early trading following confirmation of Shell's blockbuster deal to buy BG Group for $70B.
- Tullow Oil (OTCPK:TUWLF) soars 11.5%, BP (NYSE:BP) is +4.2%, Repsol (OTCQX:REPYY) +2.2%, Total (NYSE:TOT) +1.3% and Eni (NYSE:E) +1.5%. The STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas index is +5.4%.
- "The deal is done on a net asset value basis, and the good price tag is set to trigger some re-rating across the whole sector," says a Paris-based trader.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IXC, IEZ, PXE, IPW, PXI, FENY, PXJ, PSCE, RYE, FXN, GNAT, DDG, FILL
Wed, Jan. 28, 3:59 PM
- Energy stocks are broadly lower as Nymex crude oil futures fell another $1.68/bbl (-3.6%) to $44.53 after today's inventory report showed the largest weekly supply buildup since 1982, but drilling contractor are whacked with especially large losses.
- Examples: NBR -11.7%, PTEN -8.6%, PES -10.9%, PDS -12.3%, KEG -6.5%; Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP), which reportedly has launched a round of steep layoffs, -6.3%.
- Among independent producers: DNR -9.7%, NFX -4.6%, SM -8.6%, SGY -10%, SD -9.7%, EOG -5.3%, PXD -6.8%, QEP -6%, APC -4.2%, XEC -3%.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Mon, Jan. 5, 12:18 PM
- Energy stocks severely underperform the broader market, with the sector -4.2% vs. the S&P 500's -1.4%, as U.S. oil prices briefly slip below $50/bbl for the first time since April 2009; Nymex crude recently was -4.4% at $50.37, while Brent crude -5.9% at $53.08.
- Among the day's biggest losers: DNR -9%, RIG -7.6%, NBR -4.8%, CHK -5.9%, SDRL -9.1%, SD -12.3%, NOV -5.9%, PSX -6.2%, APA -5.9%, DVN -4.4%, EOG -6%, SU -5.2%, OXY -4.2%, APC -8.7%, PWE -9%, ECA -5.5%, MRO -5.3%.
- Global oil majors, which have been seen as less vulnerable to falling oil prices, are posting big losses: XOM -2.7%, COP -4.5%, CVX -3.8%, BP -5.8%, RDS.A -4.6%, TOT -6.5%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, PBW, BNO, GASL, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, QCLN, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, PXI, FENY, DWTI, PXJ, DNO, PSCE, RYE, SZO, PUW, FXN, OLO, DDG, HECO, TWTI, OLEM
Dec. 10, 2014, 12:58 PM
- Energy stocks are slammed across the board as oil prices take another nosedive (I, II), with the losses heaviest on shares of small, U.S.-based oil and gas producers.
- “Financial leverage is being thrown out the window, and everything else is being purged as well,” says Simmons analyst Bill Herbert, who adds that cuts to production budgets in the coming year likely will mean more pain for oil service companies.
- Among the hardest-hit shares: TPLM -15.2%, CRK -12.4%, GDP -11.9%, NOG -9.5%, AREX -8.6%.
- Investors have been less quick to dump shares of integrated oil companies, but today they have been smacked too: XOM -2.8%, CVX -2.9%, COP -2.3%, BP -2%, RDS.A -2.2%, TOT -2.3%.
- Today's worst performers on the S&P 500 include OKE -8.2%, DNR -7.4%, NE -5.6%.
- Service companies also are down: SLB -2.6%, HAL -2.7%, WFT -6.6%, BHI -2%.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, XES, IEZ, PXI, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Dec. 8, 2014, 11:15 AM
- Brent crude slumps to a new five-year lows after Morgan Stanley cut its 2015 Brent forecast, saying prices could average as little as $53/bbl although its base case scenario was for $70; the firm's earlier outlook saw oil at $98.
- "Oil prices face their greatest threat since 2009," analysts Adam Longson and Elizabeth Volynsky say, with Q2 2015 likely marking the peak period of dislocation in the absence of OPEC intervention.
- Brent -3.4% to $66.71, WTI -3.1% to $63.81.
- Energy stocks are getting smashed again, exacerbated by ConocoPhillips' (COP -3.3%) 20% reduction of its 2015 capex plans to $13.5B.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, CRUD, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, PXI, FENY, DWTI, PXJ, DNO, RYE, SZO, FXN, OLO, DDG, OLEM, TWTI
Nov. 28, 2014, 7:25 AM
- OPEC yesterday decided to hold production numbers despite the bear market in oil. WTI crude is down about $5 per barrel to $69.
- A premarket look at the top 10 holdings of the XLE: Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) -4.1%, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) -4.1%, Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) -4.6%, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) -4.4%, EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) -4.3%, Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) -4.8%, Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) -4.3%, Haliburton (NYSE:HAL) -4.7%, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) -5%, Williams Companies (NYSE:WMB) -1.6%.
- ETFs: ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, PBW, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, QCLN, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, PSCE, RYE, PUW, FXN, DDG, HECO
Sep. 10, 2014, 3:28 PM
- Energy stocks, especially refiners, are taking a beating following the latest EIA inventory report that said gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.4M barrels last week, helping send U.S. crude oil futures to 16-month lows (-1.2% to $91.61/bbl) and Brent crude to 17-month lows (-1.1% to $98.02).
- The report is bearish given the large increases in refined product inventories; "even though the crude drawdown was close to expectations, it seemed to disappoint," Again Capital's John Kilduff says.
- The EIA report followed the agency’s updated demand growth report issued yesterday and this morning’s release of OPEC’s report on the oil market; both see lower demand growth this year and next.
- Oil majors are mostly lower: XOM -0.6%, CVX -1.4%, COP -0.3%, but BP (+2.9%) and RDS.A (+1%) are higher.
- Refiners are hit hard: VLO -3.6%, PSX -1.5%, MPC -1.9%, HFC -2.5%, TSO -2.9%, WNR -4.1%, CVI -1.6%, ALJ -1.8%, PBF -3.5%, DK -1.8%, CLMT -1.8%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, PXI, PXJ, DBE, FENY, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, RJN, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, JJE, DDG, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Feb. 28, 2014, 2:48 PM
- Refiners mostly continue to languish after shares were hammered yesterday as the Brent-WTI spread narrowed to its tightest level since last October.
- Credit Suisse isn't too excited about the near-term outlook; while March-April could see some widening of the spread given the transfer of inventory from Cushing to the Gulf, summer crude spreads should remain tight given as East of Rockies refineries ramp up for peak gasoline demand.
- On individual stocks, the firm says Western Refining (WNR -3%) and Phillips 66 (PSX +0.1%) should benefit from other businesses, while Tesoro (TSO +1.1%) could benefit from being recognized as a “Gulf Coast Refiner” but Delek US (DK -3.5%) needs to show signs of earnings improvement before it's worth buying.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, OIH, VDE, ERY, DIG, DUG, XES, IYE, IEZ, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, FXN, RYE, DDG.
Oct. 2, 2013, 3:26 PM
- It's a pretty good day for refiners, even as most energy stocks slip, as Phillips 66 (PSX +2.1%), Valero (VLO +1.2%), Tesoro (TSO +0.2%), Western Refining (WNR +1.2%), Marathon Petroleum (MPC +1.2%) and HollyFrontier (HFC +0.4%) all post gains.
- PSX rises the most among energy companies in the S&P 500 after announcing a 25% increase in its quarterly dividend, VLO and TSO are upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup (I, II), and WNR rolls out a 12.5M-share IPO of its logistics unit.
- Refiners generally have come in for criticism recently; Barclays, for one, believes most refiners will miss consensus earnings expectations by a wide margin, with VLO the exception.
- ETFs: IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG.
Aug. 28, 2013, 11:59 AM
- Energy stocks (XLE +1.9%) lead the way this session as West Texas crude tests $110, with tensions over Syria continuing to feed Middle East supply concerns; Syria concerns and Libyan export cuts are trumping the bearish influence from a surprise gain for U.S. crude supplies.
- Among sector leaders: MRO +3.3%, EOG +3.1%, CVX +2.5%, TOT +2.4%, WLL +2.4%, APC +2.2%, RDS.A +2.1%, XOM +2.1%, HAL +2%, SLB +2%, COP +1.8%, PSX +1.7%, BP +1.6%, APA +1.6%, HES +1.5%, KOG +1.3%.
- ETFs: ERX, VDE, DIG, IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XOP, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERY, DUG, DDG, FRAK.
- After big losses yesterday, gold miners (GDX +2.4%) are strong today despite only a slight gain in the metal.
- Miners: ABX +3.6%, GG +3.2%, NEM +2.2%, KGC +2%, SLW +2%, GFI +1.2%.
Jul. 16, 2013, 1:13 PMEnergy (XLE -1.1%) is the worst performing S&P sector today with refiners taking the biggest hit following Marathon Petroleum's (MPC -4.9%) profit warning, which came on the heels of Valero's (VLO -2%) warning a few days ago as higher oil prices alongside flattish product pricing isn't a great combination. Others: Phillips 66 (PSX -3.3%), Tesoro (TSO -2.6%). | Jul. 16, 2013, 1:13 PM | Comment!
Feb. 20, 2013, 3:21 PM
Sep. 27, 2012, 3:31 PMThe cure for low prices is low prices. Left for dead a few months back, natural gas soars today to its highest price this year as the multi-year collapse in working rig counts looks to finally be taking effect. UNG +3%. The double-levered oil & gas ETF (DIG), +30.1% in Q3. | Sep. 27, 2012, 3:31 PM | 12 Comments
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