SA News • Tue, Apr. 22
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Wed, Dec. 10, 12:58 PM
- Energy stocks are slammed across the board as oil prices take another nosedive (I, II), with the losses heaviest on shares of small, U.S.-based oil and gas producers.
- “Financial leverage is being thrown out the window, and everything else is being purged as well,” says Simmons analyst Bill Herbert, who adds that cuts to production budgets in the coming year likely will mean more pain for oil service companies.
- Among the hardest-hit shares: TPLM -15.2%, CRK -12.4%, GDP -11.9%, NOG -9.5%, AREX -8.6%.
- Investors have been less quick to dump shares of integrated oil companies, but today they have been smacked too: XOM -2.8%, CVX -2.9%, COP -2.3%, BP -2%, RDS.A -2.2%, TOT -2.3%.
- Today's worst performers on the S&P 500 include OKE -8.2%, DNR -7.4%, NE -5.6%.
- Service companies also are down: SLB -2.6%, HAL -2.7%, WFT -6.6%, BHI -2%.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, XES, IEZ, PXI, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Mon, Dec. 8, 11:15 AM
- Brent crude slumps to a new five-year lows after Morgan Stanley cut its 2015 Brent forecast, saying prices could average as little as $53/bbl although its base case scenario was for $70; the firm's earlier outlook saw oil at $98.
- "Oil prices face their greatest threat since 2009," analysts Adam Longson and Elizabeth Volynsky say, with Q2 2015 likely marking the peak period of dislocation in the absence of OPEC intervention.
- Brent -3.4% to $66.71, WTI -3.1% to $63.81.
- Energy stocks are getting smashed again, exacerbated by ConocoPhillips' (COP -3.3%) 20% reduction of its 2015 capex plans to $13.5B.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, CRUD, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, PXI, FENY, DWTI, PXJ, DNO, RYE, SZO, FXN, OLO, DDG, OLEM, TWTI
Tue, Dec. 2, 10:33 AM
- BofA Merrill Lynch downgrades the energy sector to Marketweight following OPEC’s decision to maintain rather than cut production, now seeing $70-$75 as Brent crude's 2015 range, while warning of value traps.
- "With the collapse in crude, the sector now trades at a 20% discount to the S&P 500, where it has historically traded in-line with the market," the firm says, "but further estimate cuts are likely to come, [as] prices are falling faster than earnings are deteriorating."
- Seeing WTI possibly falling as low as $50 in the coming month, BofA warns that "volatility in oil prices translates to volatility in earnings."
- For exposure to the sector, the firm prefers big, lower beta stocks such as Exxon Mobil (XOM +0.5%).
- Citi also cautions against assuming that oil prices have found a bottom, and wants to see a more thorough confirmation of a technical base of support before proclaiming anything more than the latest trading bottom; however, Citi's Scott Gruber recommends moving aggressively on oil services if WTI crude falls into the $50s - his top picks, in order, are Baker Hughes (BHI +0.1%), Halliburton (HAL -1.3%) and Weatherford (WFT +2.7%).
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Fri, Nov. 28, 7:25 AM
- OPEC yesterday decided to hold production numbers despite the bear market in oil. WTI crude is down about $5 per barrel to $69.
- A premarket look at the top 10 holdings of the XLE: Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) -4.1%, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) -4.1%, Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) -4.6%, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) -4.4%, EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) -4.3%, Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) -4.8%, Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) -4.3%, Haliburton (NYSE:HAL) -4.7%, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) -5%, Williams Companies (NYSE:WMB) -1.6%.
- ETFs: ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, PBW, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, QCLN, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, PSCE, RYE, PUW, FXN, DDG, HECO
Wed, Sep. 10, 3:28 PM
- Energy stocks, especially refiners, are taking a beating following the latest EIA inventory report that said gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.4M barrels last week, helping send U.S. crude oil futures to 16-month lows (-1.2% to $91.61/bbl) and Brent crude to 17-month lows (-1.1% to $98.02).
- The report is bearish given the large increases in refined product inventories; "even though the crude drawdown was close to expectations, it seemed to disappoint," Again Capital's John Kilduff says.
- The EIA report followed the agency’s updated demand growth report issued yesterday and this morning’s release of OPEC’s report on the oil market; both see lower demand growth this year and next.
- Oil majors are mostly lower: XOM -0.6%, CVX -1.4%, COP -0.3%, but BP (+2.9%) and RDS.A (+1%) are higher.
- Refiners are hit hard: VLO -3.6%, PSX -1.5%, MPC -1.9%, HFC -2.5%, TSO -2.9%, WNR -4.1%, CVI -1.6%, ALJ -1.8%, PBF -3.5%, DK -1.8%, CLMT -1.8%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, PXI, PXJ, DBE, FENY, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, RJN, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, JJE, DDG, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Tue, Aug. 26, 3:49 PM
- Cash earned from operations by 25 leading North American E&P companies is expected in aggregate to exceed their capital spending next year for the first time since 2008, according to a Financial Times analysis.
- Shale companies' finances have improved rapidly as a result of a shift by many away from natural gas towards more lucrative oil production and a pick-up in natural gas prices after they fell to 10-year lows in 2012.
- Analysts’ consensus forecasts now indicate that the leading shale companies’ operating cash flows in 2015 will show an excess of ~$2.4B over their capital spending vs. a shortfall of $32.2B in 2012 and $8.8B last year.
- Case in point: Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) in 2012 had capital spending almost $12B ahead of its cash flow from operations, but this year and next it is expected to be able to cover its spending almost entirely from its income.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, IEO, GASX, PXE, PXI, PXJ, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG
Tue, May. 20, 10:27 AM
- Twenty-seven year old Mark Hiduke just raised $100M for his three-week old company, but he's a Texas oilman, not a tech entrepreneur. His Dallas-based PetroCore, LLC received the commitment from a local P-E firm to buy land and drill shale wells.
- “These guys are going to be the poster children of self-made oil and gas tycoons,” says Nathen McEown, a 33-year-old accountant who organizes networking dinners. “Or they could be the poster children of how too much money is chasing deals.”
- Known as "the great crew change," millennials - who for decades have spurned energy for other careers - are flocking back into an industry where 71% of the workforce is aged 50 or older. The University of Oklahoma's energy management program has sextupled in size to 600 over the last decade. "The shale revolution changed everything," says one of its graduates Ryan Watt, whose Addax Minerals has raised about $35M to speculate on oil.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, XOP, DIG, DUG, FRAK, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG, USO
Mon, May. 19, 7:17 PM
- Mexico, Iran and other countries that once played hardball with big oil companies are now rolling out the welcome mat, offering generous deals in the hope they will bring capital to stimulate output.
- But it isn't certain the big oil firms will want to return to all those countries, as the economics of the oil business may be changing to favor different kinds of exploration projects elsewhere in the world, WSJ reports.
- The biggest shake-up is coming in Mexico, where production has been falling steadily while rising electricity demand has forced dependency on imported natural gas and sent prices soaring; Total (TOT), Chesapeake (CHK) and Chevron (CVX) have expressed interest in entering the country.
- Iran is considering big changes to its current stringent oil terms, but some analysts say "it will be a slow process to get Western oil companies back to Iran... Iran's reservoirs are prolific, but they are also complex and in poor shape."
- Also, he Ukraine crisis has reinforced the trend in thinking about geopolitical risk as being a big factor.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, GASL, DUG, XES, IYE, IEO, IXC, IEZ, GASX, PXE, IPW, PXJ, BARL, PXI, PSCE, FENY, RYE, FXN, GNAT, DDG, IOIL, FILL
Fri, May. 9, 12:23 PM
- The EPA is taking the first formal step toward requiring oil and gas drillers to disclose the content of fluids they use in fracking, saying it will begin to solicit public comment on whether companies should publicly list the chemicals used to extract oil and gas out of the ground.
- Disclosure of the chemicals by companies could be positive for industry if it can allay fears of fracking opponents about toxic chemicals in groundwater, says natural gas consultant Miriam Swydan Erickson.
- Baker Hughes (BHI) said last month that it will spell out all the chemicals it uses in fracking, but many other major companies have said their chemical formulas are proprietary and disclosure could help competitors copy their process.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, DUG, GASL, FRAK, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, GASX, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG
Fri, May. 9, 11:58 AM
- Wall Street’s idea of investing in climate change means investors are piling into natural gas - the least polluting fossil fuel - as energy have accounted for nearly two-thirds of the $8B of inflows into sector-based ETFs this year.
- A White House advisory panel said this week that global warming already is blighting the U.S. with more intense coastal flooding, rainstorms and wildfires, but “weather extremes are good for the energy business," says money manager Skip Aylesworth.
- Climate change is proving to be a boon for energy investment; on the day the report was issued, the S&P Energy Index hit a record, and $322M flowed into ETFs that specialize in energy.
- "Natural gas is a potential bridge to new technologies that are green or clean,” says State Street's David Mazza, which he says has sparked investor interest in companies such as Nabors Industries (NBR), EOG Resources (EOG), Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK).
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, DIG, DUG, GASL, IYE, GASX, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG
Tue, May. 6, 7:25 PM
- The U.S. energy boom is undeniable - just today, the government said the U.S. next year will import only 23% of the crude oil it needs, the lowest since 1970 - but it's worth noting that the boom has been bought on credit.
- Many oil companies that lead the way in the fracking revolution spend more cash leasing land and drilling than they make selling oil and gas; Standard & Poor’s says 75 of the 97 E&P companies it covers have junk bond ratings.
- Little wonder that EOG - which generated $2.27B from its operations and spent $1.9B in Q1, its fourth straight cash flow-positive quarter - has one of the highest credit ratings (A-) of any oil and gas driller.
- Heard On The Street's Liam Denning thinks E&P investors now may be just chasing momentum, leaving them vulnerable to sharp corrections.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, DUG, GASL, FRAK, IYE, IEO, GASX, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG
Tue, May. 6, 10:44 AM
- Climate change is having a present-day, negative impact on Americans' everyday lives and is damaging the U.S. economy, and calls on governments to find ways to lower emissions, particularly from energy production, according to a new National Climate Assessment report.
- But you can't expect people to willingly reduce their standard of living, so even as the U.S. turns away from coal, there are ready markets for America’s coal across the globe.
- Coal is so cheap that it is likely for many years to be the cornerstone for many nations’ energy policies: U.S. coal offers much of Europe a less expensive alternative than coal from nearby mines even including transportation costs, Japan looks to spend billions of dollars on new coal-fired plants, while coal is likely to be the fuel of China into the foreseeable future.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, KOL, VDE, OIH, ERY, DIG, PBW, DUG, IYE, QCLN, GEX, PBD, PXJ, ICLN, PXI, PZD, PSCE, FENY, RYE, PUW, FXN, DDG, HECO
Tue, Apr. 22, 5:15 PM
- Some S&P energy stocks set new 52-week highs today, including Hess (HES), EQT and Baker Hughes (BHI), as the sector begins to catch up to the hype about the U.S. energy renaissance.
- Analysts say oil and gas drillers are just starting to reap the benefits of an ancillary boom in energy-related technology and innovation; RBC Capital sees bullish prospects for rig companies, adding that drillers such as Helmerich & Payne (HP), Patterson-UTI (PTEN) and Nabors Industries (NBR) are best positioned to capitalize on the boom.
- BofA/Merrill's Stephen Suttmeier offers a technical set-up, seeing energy poised for a breakout similar to Oct. 2010, when the sector moved above its 13-, 26- and 40-week relative moving averages and outperformed for another six months.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, OIH, VDE, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, DUG, GASL, FRAK, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, GASX, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG
Sat, Apr. 19, 12:05 AM
- The Obama administration is indefinitely extending its review of the Keystone XL pipeline (TRP), probably delaying a decision on the project until after November's U.S. midterm elections.
- The State Department - which has had the project under review for nearly six years - says it needs more time to prepare its recommendation to Pres. Obama because of ongoing litigation in Nebraska that is unlikely to be resolved before next year; the department was set to close a review process with eight other federal agencies on May 7.
- Pipeline supporters are criticizing the delay as a political ploy, but the move looks likely to keep environmental activist money flowing into the election races; billionaire Tom Steyer, who has pledged to spend $100M to support candidates who back strong policies to fight climate change, is praising the delay as "good news."
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, OIH, VDE, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, FXN, RYE, DDG
Sat, Mar. 29, 8:25 AM
- The Obama administration is proposing rules to cut methane emissions at sites from landfills to coal mines, laying the groundwork for regulations that could affect the energy and agriculture industries.
- The first big target is the oil industry, with new Interior Department regulations coming later this year to curb venting and flaring of natural gas at wells on public lands and further air mandates possible from the EPA by 2016.
- The oil industry says energy firms already are taking steps to plug methane leaks and capture natural gas flowing out of oil wells, and that additional regulations "could have a chilling effect on the American energy renaissance."
- Agriculture accounts for 36% of human-related methane produced in the U.S., yet proposals for curbing gas emitted by livestock rely strictly on voluntary measures that are largely already under way.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, KOL, OIH, VDE, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, DUG, GASL, FRAK, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, GASX, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, FXN, RYE, DDG
Thu, Mar. 27, 11:55 AM
- Investors are pouring money into energy companies, putting 7x as much into energy sector ETFs as they did last quarter and betting that profits of energy producers rise along with crude oil and natural gas prices.
- Energy collecting new money reflects optimism for a turnaround in companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM), XLE's biggest holding, but the bet may not pay off, as analysts generally foresee lower global oil prices in 2014 and gains in gas.
- ETFs focusing on oil and gas companies have captured 20% of the $10B in net inflows into ETFs this year, after hauling in only 2.5% of fresh money last quarter and 7.7% in all of 2013.
- ETFs: ERX, OIH, VDE, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, DUG, GASL, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, GASX, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, FXN, RYE, DDG
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