Tue, Sep. 8, 2:56 PM
- Energy E&P companies could suffer ~50% downside to 2017 consensus estimates, Cowen analysts say as they downgrade two-third of their portfolio coverage in the sector amid a weak oil price environment.
- The firm cuts capital spending estimates for several names in the sector, which in turn cuts production and cash flow estimates, the firm says as it lowers its 2016 production and operating cash flow estimates by a respective 4% and 35% below consensus view; by 2017, it sees 10% downside to consensus production estimates and 51% downside to consensus cash flow estimates.
- Downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform: BBG, BCEI, CWEI, DNR, NOG.
- Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform: CPE, FANG, PDCE, PE, SYRG.
- Maintained at Market perform: AXAS, EGN
- Maintained at Outperform: OAS, QEP, WLL
Tue, Aug. 25, 7:05 PM
- Dividends of oil E&P companies such as Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) are “mostly safe" in the shaky commodity landscape despite Chesapeake Energy’s decision to suspend its payout, says Raymond James' Pavel Molchanov and his analyst team.
- Although the firm projects only one company - APC - out of 18 to fully cover the 2016 dividend payout out of cash flow at strip pricing, dividends likely will not be cut since "all the companies that have a healthy balance sheet today should still have a healthy balance sheet at the end of 2016, even if they maintain the current dividend."
- The only dividend payers with a current net debt/cap ratio above 50% are DNR and CRC - a red flag, but both companies’ dividend payouts represent quite small amounts of outlays relative to cash flow, the firm says, adding that the only companies whose leverage is likely to be lower at year-end 2016 than it was in Q2 2015 are HES and QEP.
- Among large-caps, the highest current leverage is at APC, at 45%, and NBL, at 38%, while the companies with the lowest current leverage are CVX, OXY and XOM, all at 15% or lower.
Tue, Aug. 4, 2:59 PM
- QEP Resources (QEP +4.2%) rallies after posting a surprise Q2 profit even as revenues fell by nearly a third compared with year-ago levels.
- QEP's Q2 crude oil production gained 9% Q/Q, natural gas production rose 4% Q/Q, and natural gas liquids jumped 26%, boosted by a strong early performance of its first set of high-density infill development wells at South Antelope in the Williston Basin.
- QEP upwardly revised its full-year production guidance to 297B-315B cfe from an earlier outlook for 291B-312B cfe, as expected oil production is now seen at 18M-19B bbl from an earlier 17M-18.5M bbl.
- Prior to today's advance, the stock had lost slightly more than half its former value over the past 12 months.
Mon, Aug. 3, 5:37 PM
Mon, Aug. 3, 4:18 PM
Sun, Aug. 2, 5:35 PM
- ADUS, AEIS, AIG, ALDW, ALJ, ALL, ANH, APU, BKD, BMRN, BNFT, CAR, CGNX, CHGG, CKP, CTRP, CYH, DAC, DENN, DK, DKL, ELGX, ELNK, ENH, EPIQ, EXP, FIVN, GGP, HIL, IDTI, ININ, INN, KAR, KBR, KONA, LLNW, LMNX, MCEP, MCHP, MDU, MDWD, MIC, MRC, NLS, NVGS, OHI, ONDK, ORA, OTTR, PLOW, PPS, QEP, QLYS, QNST, RBC, RSPP, RTEC, SGMS, SNHY, THC, TNET, TSRA, TXRH, UGI, VECO, VNO, VNR, WSTC, XL
Tue, Jul. 28, 5:50 AM
Tue, Jun. 16, 5:45 PM
- The strained finances at U.S. E&P shale companies caused by collapsing crude oil prices is well known, and some analysts say the pain may be compounded by a steep drop in prices for natural gas liquids caused by oversupply, partly due to infrastructure constraints.
- SM Energy (NYSE:SM) said yesterday the price it is receiving for NGLs at the Mont Belvieu delivery point fell 36% Q/Q to $16.67/bbl and that the price declines would lower its 2015 total budgeted revenue by ~$25M while not affecting its drilling or production.
- Barclays recently said Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) could see 2016 cash flow cut by up to 3% if NGL price weakness persists, while Range Resources (NYSE:RRC) may see its cash flow cut by up to 5%; APC, DVN, PXD, QEP, SWN, ECA and EOG also could see reduced cash flow related to NGL pricing, the firm said.
- Analysts at Tudor Pickering have a more optimistic view and expect an NGL pricing recovery next year, as cresting U.S. nat gas and crude production looks to be flat-to-declining through 2016, giving U.S. infrastructure time to catch up; the firm upgrades SWN to Accumulate from Hold, with GPOR, MRD, COG, RICE and ECA as other top picks, and UPL and EQT recommended on weakness.
- ETFs: UNG, UGAZ, DGAZ, BOIL, GAZ, KOLD, UNL, DCNG
Mon, May 11, 5:35 PM
Wed, Apr. 29, 4:59 PM
Tue, Feb. 24, 4:21 PM
Mon, Feb. 23, 5:35 PM
- ACAS, AMRS, ARC, AWAY, AWK, BBRG, BGFV, BNFT, BOOM, CBI, CENX, CLGX, CLR, CPRT, DPM, DWA, DY, DYN, EIX, EPR, EXEL, FLTX, FMI, FSLR, GB, GNMK, HEI, HEP, HLS, HPQ, HURN, HWAY, INFI, JAZZ, KONA, KRA, LC, MATX, MMSI, NDSN, NFX, NKTR, NLY, NSTG, NUVA, NYMT, ORA, PZZA, QEP, RJET, RLYP, RRC, RUBI, SAM, SGY, SLCA, SM, TNDM, TRNX, TXTR, VRSK, VVUS, WBMD, XCO, Y, ZAGG
Fri, Feb. 13, 2:06 PM
Wed, Jan. 28, 3:59 PM
- Energy stocks are broadly lower as Nymex crude oil futures fell another $1.68/bbl (-3.6%) to $44.53 after today's inventory report showed the largest weekly supply buildup since 1982, but drilling contractor are whacked with especially large losses.
- Examples: NBR -11.7%, PTEN -8.6%, PES -10.9%, PDS -12.3%, KEG -6.5%; Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP), which reportedly has launched a round of steep layoffs, -6.3%.
- Among independent producers: DNR -9.7%, NFX -4.6%, SM -8.6%, SGY -10%, SD -9.7%, EOG -5.3%, PXD -6.8%, QEP -6%, APC -4.2%, XEC -3%.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Tue, Jan. 6, 6:28 PM
- Thomson Reuters StarMine data ranks the energy sector as having the worst analyst sentiment, using a model that lists equities by aggregating metrics that include changes in sell-side estimates for company earnings and revenue.
- Chevron (NYSE:CVX) registered the lower score, with analysts lowering estimates more than for 99% of companies; six different analysts have lowered Q4 EPS expectations by an average of 14.3% in the past month.
- Expected Q4 earnings growth in the energy sector is at -19.8%, according to Thomson Reuters data, down from a 6.4% growth expectation on Oct. 1, with Q1 looking even worse at -32.2%.
- Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO), HollyFrontier (NYSE:HFC) and QEP Resources (NYSE:QEP) are among the other handful of energy companies with the lowest possible score.
Dec. 22, 2014, 10:45 AM
- Natural gas prices fall 9.5% to near two-year lows at $3.133/mmBtu, in the biggest one-day percentage loss since February and the lowest intraday price since January 2013, on mild weather forecasts and inventory that is above year-ago levels.
- Prices are now down more than 15% in three straight losing sessions and are 30% lower than the six-month high closing price of $4.489/mmBtu it hit just a month ago.
- Weather has been unseasonably warm for December, limiting demand for home heating and allowing relatively low stockpiles to catch up to where they were a year ago and encouraging traders to sell based on the belief that supply is relatively healthy.
- Gas producers are among the biggest early decliners: XOM -1.1%, CHK -7.3%, APC -2.6%, SWN -6%, DVN -2.2%, COP -2.3%, BP -1.5%, COG -4%, BHP -1.9%, CVX -1.3%, ECA -5.1%, EQT -4.3%, RDS.A -1.7%, UPL -12%, WPX -6.9%, EOG -1%, OXY -1.1%, RRC -6.1%, APA -2.3%, AR -3.2%, CNX -3%, QEP -4.8%, LINE -4.9%, NBL -1.6%, SM -2.6%, XEC -4.2%, PXD -2.9%, NFX -5.1%.
- ETFs: UNG, DGAZ, UGAZ, BOIL, GAZ, FCG, GASL, KOLD, UNL, NAGS, DCNG
QEP vs. ETF Alternatives
QEP Resources Inc is a holding company with two subsidiaries, which are engaged in oil and gas exploration and production and oil and gas marketing, operation of the Haynesville Gathering System and an underground gas storage facility.
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