PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID)

All Comments on QID

  • commenter
    saifl
    Jun 10 01:19 PM
    Options Trader: Monday Outlook [view article]
    The increase, however, follows extensive downward revisions to first-quarter
    non-OPEC production. OECD oil stocks fell 8.1 million barrels in April to 2.562
    billion, "in stark contrast to the typical build," IEA said. Total oil cover
    remains "above average" at 53.4 days, IEA said.

    The IEA, "which cut its demand growth the slowest rate since 2002, also cut
    expectations for supply growth, as well," said Fitzpatrick.

    OECD stocks fell at a time when they should be building, he said. "So, while
    market participants are starting to recognize that economic deterioration has
    begun, supply may be stretched more than producers contend," he said.     Reply
  • commenter
    saifl
    Jun 10 01:13 PM
    Options Trader: Monday Outlook [view article]
    Really? What about the spot markets which have no futures? How do you explain that those prices are about the same? Did you see IEA 's report out this morning revising down their high production numbers by 0.7 million barrels per day total from their initial estimate? Did you read what I wrote about Sugar and Natural Gas?


     Reply
  • commenter
    Commodity
    Bubble
    Proponent
    Jun 10 12:21 PM
    Options Trader: Monday Outlook [view article]
    saifl...those numbers don't include any of the de-regulated exchanges like the ICE and Dubai. Using the CFTC report to gauge speculation is like using the Fed's core inflation number that strips out food and energy to measure inflation. Reply
  • commenter
    Alpha Seeker
    Jun 10 11:31 AM
    ETF Top 10 Lists: Fastest Growing, Largest By Net Assets, Top Providers [view article]
    Usually, i rely on FRC in Boston for ETF research and data... Reply
  • commenter
    saifl
    Jun 10 08:49 AM
    Options Trader: Monday Outlook [view article]
    Hey Phil, Hope you losing your shirt for being such a moron. Your arguments are so flawed that even a fifth grader could see past them, but apparently most of your fan club is dumb as you.
    Firstly, you assume there that everyone is driving in the most inefficient manner, I assure you they are not. Second you convert your global oil story to a global gasoline story. It clearly is not. there are lot of places where you cannot decrease oil usage so easily.
    Decrease oil usage by 5%? Barring the fall of USSR oil usage has never gone down in a single year globally and you expect how much of a decline? If everyone consumed as much as an average american we wold require 400 million barrels per day so as much as there is romm to cut back here there is tons of room to increase consumption elsewhere.
    So stop being so a ****ing moron on speculators. Check the CFTC report on oil Speculators we have addressed before but here is more
    www.cftc.gov/dea/futur...
    go down this and see Crude oil Light Sweet. Figures change every week. For the current week
    216,388 long contracts for speculators and 188,092 short contracts for speculators. That is a net long position of about 28,300 contracts. That is the amount the world uses in 8 hours. Do you really believe we can influence prices with that?
    Trivia qt number 1: Which market has the largest net short position of Speculators in 2008?
    Answer:Natural gas
    What happened to natural Gas prices?
    Went up by 70%. Outperformed even oil
    Largest short position and went up 70%. How do you explain that?
    Trivia qt number 2:
    Since 2006 which commodity has had a very large net long speculator position and gone down by 40%?
    Sugar. you know why? Because production always trumps speculation. World production increased creaming the speculators who were long.
    Not convinced?
    Trivia qt number 3.
    which commodity has outperformed all others since 2002?
    rhodium...up 2400%... and guess what no commodity futures market for Rhodium.
    Till a year back Uranium was outperforming oil with a price increase of 2000% or 20 fold from $7 to as high as $150 a pound and they did not even have a futures market for it till recently. In fact the price peaked 3 weeks after the futures were introduced by Nymex.

     Reply
  • commenter
    Tired Of
    Republicans
    Jun 10 02:19 AM
    Options Trader: Monday Outlook [view article]
    I can post many article's on the otherside of this argument.

    In responce to the above poster:

    1. Fed's cheap money policy (Without a Doubt)
    2. Reckless speculation (Define Reckless)

    Which Commodities are not in short supply?

    Corn?
    Steel?
    Wheat?
    LNG?
    Copper?
    Oil?
    Soy?
    Zinc?
    Potash?
    Caustic?
    Cotton?
    Coal?

    Which have had price increases due to speculation? Some? All?     Reply
  • commenter
    Commodity
    Bubble
    Proponent
    Jun 10 01:08 AM
    Options Trader: Monday Outlook [view article]
    A few interesting points:

    -China's runaway demand: I don't see how a country (who even with subsidies has prices at $2.80/gal) where " upper middle class" is defined as $1,000/month can afford to spend that kind of coin on gasoline to exponentially grow the automobile market (that works out to about 10% of pre-tax income on gasoline at those prices for the rich chinamen, compared with 4-5% for the poor American shlub). The Chinese miracle is about to be completely undone by their manipulation because they are in a lose-lose scenario with their currency for two reasons:

    1. If they keep the yuan artificially low, they will have inflation rates that exceed the nominal GDP growth (which they already have at 10% inflation and 9% growth). This creates major instability in the poorer regions as workers demand higher wages to compensate, thereby decreasing profitability of outsourcing.

    2. If they let the yuan appreciate, then they become too expensive to be used as exporters. Since the Chinese do not have the education system (they have NO top universities by most measures) and protection of IP to transform to a high tech society, they lose their major employment base. High unemployment leads to the unwinding of the Chinese miracle.


    Historically, during commodity booms, the bulls underestimate the supply response from producers. This time is not different in that there is a MASSIVE resource base in a diverse area to accomodate supply growth (Brazil, Ghana, India's Rajasthan field, China's Bohai Bay, Mexico's Chicanotepec, US's GOM & Bakken, Canada's Artic zone, Eastern Russia, Lukoil's 4 billion barrel discovery in the Caspian, new recent finds in the North Sea from the UK and Norway, Saudi Arabia's recent discovery this year adjacent to Ghawar as indicated in Aramco's annual report, supermajor fields in Iran and Iraq that are known but not yet tapped). I know I'm missing a few more. Even Goldman Sachs super-spike guys do not subscribe to the peak oil theory per the Barron's article.

    We have not dealt with the real drivers of this market and until we do nothing will change:

    1. Fed's cheap money policy
    2. Reckless speculation: It's not surprising that as soon as the CFTC even started to look into the ICE, Goldman & co. threatened to move to Dubai. That could be shot down real fast with a few simple measures like huge fines ($100,000,000 per day per violation) for any company doing business in the US that trades on unregulated trading platforms. The game would be over real fast if that happened.


    Reply
  • commenter
    hidilip1975
    Jun 09 01:03 PM
    Options Trader: Monday Outlook [view article]
    Totally agree with the comments ,people lke goldman sachs and the analyts like the Murthi who predicts 200 dollar oil by this year are the real global terroists .They are the new Bin ladens of the world .Thanks to these people and a lameduck president intent on destroying both americas global leadership and credibility as well his conservative parties chances by alteat another eight years due to bad energy policies and by allowing manipulation of oil prices .Hopefully the american people will kick these bunch out and bring in Obama Reply
  • commenter
    Bellylaugh
    Jun 09 11:32 AM
    Options Trader: Monday Outlook [view article]
    It's hard not to agree, I'm in QID with the same reasoning, Bon Chance to us....... Reply
  • commenter
    junkyarddog
    Jun 09 10:24 AM
    Options Trader: Monday Outlook [view article]
    Dear Mr. Davis,

    I always look forward to your articles as you state your opinions based on facts WE KNOW. People state Peak Oil as a "fact", but how can one measure it?

    I have a theory of my own: JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Bros and others lost their shirts with the mortgage meltdown. What a better way to recover their money using their favorite drug addiction -- derivatives -- to bet on oil? The key word here is BETTING. Who's is always predicting high oil prices? Who gains the most with such high prices? Hint: it's not Exxon Mobil, although they benefit quite a bit too. This run may continue for a while. Watch them shortening oil in a few months and making another obscene amount of money.

    Thanks for your always enlightening articles!


    Reply
  • commenter
    fingham
    May 27 04:14 PM
    Brian Orol Uses Inverse ETFs to Smooth Returns [view article]
    I don't get why one would buy a short index while, I presume, holding a long position in the same or a highly correlated index elsewhere in the portfolio. Is that what's going on? If one fears downside risk in equities, just hold more cash. Or am I missing something? This approach seems to have higher costs and complexity. Reply
  • commenter
    Kunst
    May 21 02:37 AM
    ETF Fund Flows (Week Ending 5/9/08) [view article]
    Sure looks like forces gathering for a downturn. Reply
  • commenter
    omooc
    May 09 09:34 PM
    My Website
    ETF Fund Flows (Week Ending 5/2/08) [view article]
    Excellent presentation. It would be even better were it more timely. A minor suggestion: present data in million $ -- this makes reading easier. Thanks for your service. omooc Reply
  • commenter
    Mark L
    Apr 26 05:06 PM
    Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up [view article]
    Continuation

    re: Proshares posting counterparty note on their webpage, they have, under the Products tab in the right hand column, specifically stating that they have no Bear counterparty risk.

    further, here's a link to some additional discussion wallstreetexaminer.com...     Reply
  • commenter
    Mark L
    Apr 26 04:39 PM
    Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up [view article]
    Interesting comments on what's under the hood at proshares ultrashorts. My understanding is that the the futures swaps (e-mini, etc.) have as the primary risk that of counterparty default. Proshares somewhat mitigates this by limiting the single counterparty concentration to about 8%. I called them up right after the Bear collapse and they told me Bear was not one of their counterparties at the time of the collapse and they were in the process of posting a whitepaper on their website to address this concern. As soon as I finish this post I am going to check out the website to see if it was posted. I do think this is an important area that many investors have no clue about and they need to go in with open eyes, but at the same time, if understood, an informed decision can be made.

    Thanks again for good article and comments William Edwards     Reply
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