Oct. 29, 2013, 8:21 PM
- Several Chinese Internet names recently pressured by a generally selloff in tech momentum plays are up AH after Baidu beat Q3 estimates on the back of strong growth in ad revenue/customer, and issued above-consensus Q4 guidance.
- SINA +2.3% AH. QIHU +2.1%. YOKU +2%. RENN +2.1%. NTES +2.5%. DANG +1.6%.
- NQ Mobile (NQ) is up 2.5% AH after posting a 25.1% gain in regular trading as investors welcomed its fund transfer announcement.
- Bulls and bears continue to argue fiercely over NQ's prospects. On SA, bearish Goldbaum Research observes NQ's games (offered via its FL Mobile game publishing subsidiary) appear to have been pulled from Apple's App Store, while bullish Toro Investment Partners argues Muddy Waters' track record is quite mixed, and that many firms have had a chance to look at NQ's books.
Oct. 28, 2013, 12:15 PM
- Though the Nasdaq is only down 0.1%, many 2013 Internet, solar, and enterprise software high-flyers are diving once more. Chinese names are well-represented in the group, as NQ Mobile continues crashing thanks to fraud allegations and Sohu plunges due to weak Q4 EPS guidance.
- The WSJ and NYT have each run pieces asking whether a new tech bubble is afoot, at least in certain hot sectors. "People are reaching for growth," says one fund manager quoted by the WSJ. Others argue the fact the high-flyers generally have substantial revenue, and are often profitable, makes the current situation different from the Dot.com bubble.
- Internet decliners: FB -3.4%. MELI -2.8%. GRPN -5%. ZNGA -2.7%. P -2.4%. DANG -7.6%. VIPS -7%. YY -4.8%. QIHU -5.6%. RENN -5.7%. SINA -2.4%. FUEL -4%.
- Solar decliners: JKS -12.4%. FSLR -4.8%. SOL -8.4%. YGE -8%. JASO -6.9%. GTAT -5.4%. SUNE -4.6%. SPWR -4.3%. SCTY -3.8%. STP -8.9%. TSL -13.2%.
- Enterprise decliners: CRM -3.8%. DATA -4.5%. MKTO -5.8%. WDAY -4%. DWRE -3.4%. VEEV -5.1%. IMPV -3.4%.
- Recent declines: I, II.
- Previous: Cashin sees mobile/cloud bubble
Oct. 18, 2013, 10:29 AM
- "We believe that Google's (GOOG +12.8%) ability to monetize experiences through engagement-based services will allow it to disrupt many hardware and software layers over time," writes Evercore's Ken Sena, exemplifying the glowing analyst commentary that has followed Google's Q3 beat.
- Sena, who is raising his PT to $1,100, sees Google's services investments pressuring near-term margins, but also creating "a stronger platform ecosystem in which more collected data, better predictive analytics, and an increased amount of screen connectivity will lead to better overall search economics in addition to new opportunities."
- Needham and Jefferies have raised their PTs to $1,150, and Deutsche has raised its target to $1,220. YouTube's mobile growth, strong paid click volumes, and the potential for Enhanced Campaigns to lift search ad sales (after doing less damage than expected in Q3) are all mentioned as reasons to stay bullish.
- U.S. Internet peers continue to rally in sympathy: FB +4.1%. LNKD +3.7%. YELP +7.8%. AMZN +3.3%. Z +3.9%. TRLA +4.8%. ZNGA +2.8%.
- Foreign Internet names are also moving higher: BIDU +5%. YOKU +6.9%. SINA +3.7%. RENN +4.4%. QIHU +4.9%. DANG +5.9%. YNDX +4%. SIFY +3.4%.
- Google's Q3 results, details, CC remarks, transcript
Oct. 8, 2013, 11:48 AM
- With the government shutdown having reached day 8, many U.S. and Chinese Internet stocks that have seen giant 2013 gains (often with the help of momentum traders and/or short squeezes) are falling sharply.
- U.S. decliners include Facebook (FB -5.2%), Yahoo (YHOO -5.2%), Netflix (NFLX -4.7%), LinkedIn (LNKD -7%), Zillow (Z -5.3%), Trulia (TRLA -7.5%), Yelp (YELP -9.3%), Groupon (GRPN -4.9%), and Web.com (WWWW -10.2%).
- Chinese decliners include Baidu (BIDU -6.2%), Sina (SINA -7.5%), YY (YY -7.3%), Sohu (SOHU -5.1%), Renren (RENN -9.2%), Youku (YOKU -9.6%), Vipshop (VIPS -6.9%), and Dangdang (DANG -10.7%).
- A chart of the YTD performance of some key names speaks for itself.
Oct. 4, 2013, 12:24 PM
- Chinese Internet firms, already shown plenty of love by momentum traders this year, are rallying again following the release of Twitter's public S-1.
- Chinese microblogging leader Sina (SINA +4%) is among the gainers, and so are fellow social networking plays YY (YY +3.2%) and Renren (RENN +9.7%). But several other names are also taking part in the rally: BIDU +2%. NQ +2.7%. CYOU +6.9%. DANG +4.1%. SOHU +5.4%. SFUN +5.8%. AMAP +3.4%. QIHU +2%.
- Twitter mentioned in its S-1 78% of the 218.3M monthly active users it had at the end of Q2 were outside the U.S. But few of them are in China, where its services (like Facebook's) are generally blocked.
Oct. 3, 2013, 9:15 AM
Aug. 26, 2013, 7:08 PM
- Shortly after Baidu (BIDU) acquired a 59% stake in Renren's (RENN) Nuomi Chinese group-buying site for $160M (via newly-issued shares), Nuomi's CEO has sent out a memo stating the business will be split from Renren, and is eventually looking to go public.
- Reviewing the deal, Tech in Asia's C. Custer suggests Baidu bought a controlling stake in Nuomi to shore up its e-commerce bona fides as it increasingly butts heads with fellow Chinese Web giants Alibaba and Tencent. He also notes Baidu could cross-promote Nuomi's deals via Baidu Maps (Google has begun doing something similar with Google Offers and Maps).
- Also: The Next Web's Jon Russell takes a look at Baidu's Light App platform, which enables mobile users to quickly load Web-based apps by inputting a search term. Light App bears a strong resemblance to Baidu's popular Box Computing PC search/app platform.
- Baidu says Light App will be monetized via ads and revenue-sharing deals, and could potentially serve different apps based on a user's device or location.
Aug. 23, 2013, 10:19 AM
- Pandora (P -12.8%) has been downgraded by Raymond James (Neutral) and Stifel (Hold) following its FQ2 beat, mixed guidance, and decision to remove its mobile listening cap.
- VMware (VMW +2.7%) has been upgraded to Buy by Jefferies. The company's annual VMworld conference starts on Sunday.
- CenturyLink (CTL +1.2%) has been upgraded to Neutral by Nomura.
- Renren (RENN +6.8%) has been upgraded to Hold by Jefferies following the sale of its Nuomi group-buying site to Baidu. The firm downgraded Renren only a week ago.
- First Solar (FSLR +1%) and Trina Solar (TSL +2.7%) have been upgraded to Market Perform by Raymond James. RJ downgraded First Solar in April.
- Autodesk (ADSK +12.6%) has been upgraded to Buy by B. Riley. Shares are surging after initially falling in AH trading in response to the light FQ3 guidance accompanying Autodesk's FQ2 beat.
- Jiayuan.com (DATE -3.4%) has been cut to Market Perform by Oppenheimer two day after posting Q2 results.
- SunEdison (SUNE -0.4%) has been upgraded to Buy by Needham a day after announcing plans to spin off its semiconductor wafer ops through an IPO.
Aug. 23, 2013, 9:59 AM
- Beaten-down Renren (RENN +7.6%) has jumped on the news; high-flying Baidu (BIDU -0.5%) is close to breakeven. The all-cash deal is expected to close in Q4. (PR)
- Baidu has been busy expanding the scope of its empire via M&A. Other recent acquisitions include top Chinese Android app store 91 Wireless ($1.9B), and video sites iQiyi and PPS.
- Nuomi, estimated to have an 11.6% share of the Chinese group-buying market (per local research firm tuan800), has a long history of posting losses. It had Q2 revenue of $6.2M (+69% Y/Y), and 3.8M active paying users during the quarter. 30% of its Q2 transactions came via mobile.
- Baidu's ability to promote Nuomi to its massive user base should help grow the site's paid user count, and in doing so increase its appeal to merchant partners. Nuomi is the Chinese group-buying market's 4th-largest player, behind Meituan (estimated 36.5% share), Dazhong (24.1%), and 55tuan (12.1%).
- The deal allows struggling Renren to focus on its online/mobile gaming and social networking ops going forward.
- Marbridge Consulting reported of Baidu's interest in Nuomi 10 days ago.
Aug. 23, 2013, 9:15 AM
Aug. 22, 2013, 1:16 PM
- Chinese tech names, already having a spring/summer to remember, are largely outperforming after China's August flash manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1, easily beating a consensus of 48.3.
- Baidu (BIDU +2%), Dangdang (DANG +6.3%), Vipshop (VIPS +3.8%), Youku (YOKU +3.1%), Sina (SINA +2.7%), and Renren (RENN +2.1%) are among the winners.
- However, LightInTheBox (LITB -7.9%), which crumbled on Tuesday due to a revenue miss and soft guidance, is adding to this week's losses, and making new post-IPO lows in the process.
Aug. 16, 2013, 4:52 PM
- Analyst Vivian Hao, who has cut shares to Sell and lowered her PT to $2.40, isn't pleased with Renren's (RENN -3.5%) Q2 revenue miss and Q3 guidance, which the company attributed to online/mobile game delays.
- She also notes Renren's ad revenue is stagnating thanks to a shortage of inventory (social networking share losses to Sina/Tencent could be a reason for this), that opex continues to jump thanks to investments in the Nuomi group buy/daily deals unit (Baidu is reportedly interested in it), and that PC-related revenue is being hurt by the mobile shift.
- Nuomi revenue rose 22% Q/Q and 69% Y/Y in Q2, but was still only $6.2M. Active paying users +700K Q/Q to 3.8M.
- Renren's online ad revenue only rose 2.4% Y/Y to $15.4M, and game revenue only 1.4% to $22.8M. Other Internet value-added service revenue +43.5% to $5.2M (thanks to the Woxiu virtual talent show service).
- Jefferies cut Renren to Underperform yesterday, while citing concerns about strong online game competition (from Tencent, Qihoo, and Baidu) and slow mobile ad monetization (even though mobile is now 77% of traffic). The firm also notes Nuomi is estimated to have held only 11.6% of the Chinese group buy market in June (Meituan led with 36.5%).
Aug. 15, 2013, 12:45 PM
Aug. 15, 2013, 10:00 AM
- Cisco (CSCO -6.6%) has been upgraded to Neutral by Sterne Agee and ISI, even as shares sell off in response to the company's FQ4 results and FQ1 guidance.
- Intel (INTC -1.4%) and Micron (MU -3%) have been cut to Neutral by Baird.
- Renren (RENN -9.3%) has been cut to Underperform by Jefferies following its Q2 revenue miss and soft Q3 guidance.
- NetApp (NTAP -2%) has been cut to Hold by Lake Street Capital following its mixed FQ4 results and ho-hum FQ1 guidance.
- Bazaarvoice (BV +3.8%) has been started at Buy by B. Riley
Aug. 15, 2013, 9:11 AM
Aug. 14, 2013, 7:31 PM| Comment!
RENN vs. ETF Alternatives
Renren Inc is engaged in the operation of social networking internet platform, as well as provision of online advertising services and internet value-added services, including online gaming operations, online talent show and other IVAS, among others.
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