Mar. 10, 2014, 3:57 PM
- Chinese Internet and solar names, many of them among the standouts of the 2013/2014 tech rally, are heading into the close with steep losses after the Chinese government reported exports fell 18.1% Y/Y in February (much worse than expected).
- Internet decliners: WUBA -10.7%. YOKU -7.3%. ATHM -7.2%. QUNR -6.4%. NQ -6%. RENN -5.2%. CTRP -5.2%. YY -4.4%. WBAI -4.4%. KONG -5.5%.
- Solar decliners: JKS -6.3%. YGE -5.8%. TSL -6.7%. CSUN -4.9%. CSIQ -4.5%. DQ -4.2%. HSOL -4.5%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Feb. 28, 2014, 2:16 PM
- Over the last 48 hours, Baidu, Dangdang, Youku, and 58.com have all posted Q4 beats and provided strong Q1 guidance. The numbers are giving a lift to a slew of Chinese Internet stocks.
- Notable gainers: SOHU +6.5%. PWRD +13.2%. VIPS +4.3%. YY +2.2%. RENN +3.8%. GOMO +5.5%.
- In Sohu's case, the rumor mill might also be helping out. A source tells Marbridge Consulting Sohu CEO Charles Zhang and Tencent (TCEHY +1.2%) CEO Pony Ma have talked about merging their companies' online video units. Both Sohu and Tencent trail market leaders Youku and Baidu in China's burgeoning online video market.
- Dangdang (DANG +8.6%) is adding to yesterday's big post-earnings gains after Oppenheimer hiked its PT to $15. The firm likes Dangdang's improved efficiency and partnerships with e-commerce rivals (inc. Alibaba's Tmall), and the fact mobile accounted for 13% of Q4 orders.
Feb. 18, 2014, 4:03 PM
- On a good day for many tech momentum plays, solar and Chinese Internet stocks led the way.
- Solar names could be benefiting from Chinese government remarks suggesting Beijing remains open to trade talks to end its ongoing solar import dispute with the U.S. The comments come after the ITC added Chinese solar panels made with Taiwanese cells to its list of Chinese panels covered by import duties.
- Also: SunEdison (SUNE +6.6%) has filed for an IPO for its solar project business, a move that could entice other companies with major solar project ops to do the same.
- Solar gainers: FSLR +6.9%. SCTY +8%. JASO +12.6%. DQ +9.2%. CSUN +8.1%. YGE +5.5%. JKS +5.3%.
- Chinese Web gainers: CTRP +11.5%. CCIH +16.8%. RENN +11%. YOKU +6.1%. QIHU +6.9%. WUBA +10.6%. WBAI +7.9%. GOMO +9.1%. SOHU +5.6%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Jan. 27, 2014, 12:44 PM
- U.S. and Chinese Internet stocks are adding to last week's big losses, as investors continue taking profits following major 2013 gains. Chinese stocks were hit last week by an emerging markets selloff, weak PMI data, and an SEC ban (pending appeal) on audits from the Chinese units of big-4 U.S. accounting firms.
- Twitter (TWTR -8.2%), the company bears are most likely to point to when arguing a new Internet stock bubble has formed, is headlining the U.S. decliners. Shares are still up 25% from their post-IPO opening trade of $45.10.
- Other U.S. decliners: GOOG -3.1%. FB -2.9%. YELP -5.3%. Z -5.1%. LNKD -4.3%. P -3.2%. ANGI -4.1%. ZNGA -3.1%. GRPN -3.1%.
- Chinese decliners: BIDU -2.9%. CCIH -19%. BITA -14.6%. CTRP -7.4%. NQ -7.9%. LONG -9.4%. DANG -7.3%. SOHU -4.3%. GOMO -5.8%. SINA -3.3%. QUNR -7.7%. SFUN -5.4%. WBAI -7.5%. RENN -5%.
- Internet/social media ETFs: FDN, PNQI, SOCL
Jan. 24, 2014, 10:59 AM
- Five months after Baidu (BIDU -0.4%) acquired a 59% stake in Chinese daily deals/group-buying site Nuomi from Renren (RENN +2.2%) for $160M, Renren says it has reached a deal to sell its remaining stake in Nuomi to Baidu. Terms are undisclosed. (PR)
- Following Baidu's initial purchase, Nuomi's CEO wrote a memo stating his company is looking to eventually go public. The company has been estimated to hold an 11.6% share of the Chinese group-buying market (#4 overall).
- Nuomi is just one of several acquisitions Baidu has made over the last two years to grow the reach of its Web/mobile empire.
Nov. 29, 2013, 11:31 AM
Nov. 29, 2013, 11:18 AM
- Jefferies' Cynthia Meng has cut Renren (RENN -10.4%) to Underperform after the company provided dispiriting Q4 guidance to go with mixed Q3 results.
- Meng doesn't see Renren's gaming ops (saw a 16.9% rev. drop in Q3, and will likely witness a bigger drop in Q4) rebounding in the near-term, given intense competition from Tencent and other firms with strong mobile game distribution. Renren has said it plans to focus on a smaller number of "high-quality" games" going forward.
- Meng also questions Renren's ability to transition from being a social networking platform to a social messaging platform (the company just launched a mobile messaging app), given the popularity of incumbents such as Tencent's WeChat, and notes iResearch estimates Renren has respectively seen 55% and 38% Y/Y drops in monthly time spent and daily active users.
- On the CC (transcript), Renren stated its ad sales (-11% Y/Y in Q3) were pressured by both the mobile transition and social networking competition, and that it plans to launch "a series of marketing campaigns" to promote its messaging app. The company also noted only ~10% of its Q4 ad revenue is expected to come from mobile.
Nov. 27, 2013, 6:27 PM
- Renren (RENN) is guiding for Q4 revenue of $29M-$31M. That's far below a consensus of $48.9M, and also down sharply from Q3 and year-ago levels of $47.6M and $48.8M, respectively.
- Renren's Q3 numbers make some likely culprits for the guidance apparent. After rising 1% in Q2, online game revenue fell 17% Y/Y to $20.1M due to the maturing of existing titles (and the failure of new titles to make up for it). Online ad revenue, up 2% in Q2, fell 11% Y/Y to $14.9M as Renren continues to bleed Chinese social networking share to Tencent and Sina.
- Two bright spots: Other Internet value-added service revenue rose 32% to $6.1M thanks to Renren's Woxiu virtual talent show service, and the Nuomi daily deals unit (now 59%-owned by Baidu) saw revenue rise 36% to $6.5M.
- In spite of Renren's revenue pressures, opex rose 27% Y/Y. Sales/marketing spend +34% to $28.5M, R&D +7% to $22.4M, G&A +57% to $14.6M. Given the Q4 guidance, job cuts might soon be on the way.
- Confirming a Marbridge Consulting report, Renren says it's restructuring its gaming ops to focus on "high-quality games."
- CC at 8PM ET. Q3 results, PR.
Nov. 27, 2013, 6:06 PM
Nov. 27, 2013, 12:10 AM
Nov. 26, 2013, 5:35 PM
Nov. 15, 2013, 4:04 PM
- Marbridge Consulting reports Renren (RENN +1.2%) CEO Joe Chen stated in an internal e-mail his company will narrow its gaming efforts in order to focus on its social networking ops.
- Gaming-related weakness (blamed on game launch delays) led Renren to issue a Q2 warning in July, and provide weak Q3 guidance in August. The company's gaming ops, which face tough competition from Tencent, NetEase, Shanda, Qihoo, and many other Chinese game providers, totaled $22.4M in Q2, up 1.4% Y/Y and equal to 45% of total revenue.
- Renren's social networking ops face have their own challenges: The company's ad revenue only rose 2.4% Y/Y in Q2 to $15.4M, as Chinese Web/mobile users embrace rival social networking platforms such as Tencent's WeChat and Sina's Weibo.
- Q3 results are due this month.
Nov. 7, 2013, 11:48 AM
- Even as Twitter blasts off to a $25B valuation following its much-hyped IPO, U.S. and foreign Internet stocks are giving back some more of the massive 2013 gains that have led many names to trade at steep multiples.
- One sign investors in this space are in a profit-taking mood: Zillow (Z -4.3%) and YY both sold off yesterday in spite of delivering Q3 beats (I, II) and above-consensus guidance; Zillow is adding to its losses today. Likewise, SouFun (SFUN -5.4%) has turned negative after providing a Q3 beat and strong guidance.
- Notable U.S. decliners: FB -2.4%. LNKD -2.8%. GRPN -4.7% (reports after the close). ZNGA -2.7%. P -3.8%. TRLA -5.4%.
- Notable foreign decliners: BIDU -2.4%. QIHU -6.7%. SINA -5% (generally viewed as the Chinese Twitter). DANG -6.2%. VIPS -7.7%. RENN -4.2%. AMAP -4.7%. CTRP -5.7%. YOKU -5.6%. RENN -4.2%. YNDX -5.1%. MELI -2.4% (plunged yesterday thanks to a Q3 miss). SIFY -2.6%.
- Internet/social media ETFs: FDN, PNQI, SOCL
Oct. 29, 2013, 8:21 PM
- Several Chinese Internet names recently pressured by a generally selloff in tech momentum plays are up AH after Baidu beat Q3 estimates on the back of strong growth in ad revenue/customer, and issued above-consensus Q4 guidance.
- SINA +2.3% AH. QIHU +2.1%. YOKU +2%. RENN +2.1%. NTES +2.5%. DANG +1.6%.
- NQ Mobile (NQ) is up 2.5% AH after posting a 25.1% gain in regular trading as investors welcomed its fund transfer announcement.
- Bulls and bears continue to argue fiercely over NQ's prospects. On SA, bearish Goldbaum Research observes NQ's games (offered via its FL Mobile game publishing subsidiary) appear to have been pulled from Apple's App Store, while bullish Toro Investment Partners argues Muddy Waters' track record is quite mixed, and that many firms have had a chance to look at NQ's books.
Oct. 28, 2013, 12:15 PM
- Though the Nasdaq is only down 0.1%, many 2013 Internet, solar, and enterprise software high-flyers are diving once more. Chinese names are well-represented in the group, as NQ Mobile continues crashing thanks to fraud allegations and Sohu plunges due to weak Q4 EPS guidance.
- The WSJ and NYT have each run pieces asking whether a new tech bubble is afoot, at least in certain hot sectors. "People are reaching for growth," says one fund manager quoted by the WSJ. Others argue the fact the high-flyers generally have substantial revenue, and are often profitable, makes the current situation different from the Dot.com bubble.
- Internet decliners: FB -3.4%. MELI -2.8%. GRPN -5%. ZNGA -2.7%. P -2.4%. DANG -7.6%. VIPS -7%. YY -4.8%. QIHU -5.6%. RENN -5.7%. SINA -2.4%. FUEL -4%.
- Solar decliners: JKS -12.4%. FSLR -4.8%. SOL -8.4%. YGE -8%. JASO -6.9%. GTAT -5.4%. SUNE -4.6%. SPWR -4.3%. SCTY -3.8%. STP -8.9%. TSL -13.2%.
- Enterprise decliners: CRM -3.8%. DATA -4.5%. MKTO -5.8%. WDAY -4%. DWRE -3.4%. VEEV -5.1%. IMPV -3.4%.
- Recent declines: I, II.
- Previous: Cashin sees mobile/cloud bubble
Oct. 18, 2013, 10:29 AM
- "We believe that Google's (GOOG +12.8%) ability to monetize experiences through engagement-based services will allow it to disrupt many hardware and software layers over time," writes Evercore's Ken Sena, exemplifying the glowing analyst commentary that has followed Google's Q3 beat.
- Sena, who is raising his PT to $1,100, sees Google's services investments pressuring near-term margins, but also creating "a stronger platform ecosystem in which more collected data, better predictive analytics, and an increased amount of screen connectivity will lead to better overall search economics in addition to new opportunities."
- Needham and Jefferies have raised their PTs to $1,150, and Deutsche has raised its target to $1,220. YouTube's mobile growth, strong paid click volumes, and the potential for Enhanced Campaigns to lift search ad sales (after doing less damage than expected in Q3) are all mentioned as reasons to stay bullish.
- U.S. Internet peers continue to rally in sympathy: FB +4.1%. LNKD +3.7%. YELP +7.8%. AMZN +3.3%. Z +3.9%. TRLA +4.8%. ZNGA +2.8%.
- Foreign Internet names are also moving higher: BIDU +5%. YOKU +6.9%. SINA +3.7%. RENN +4.4%. QIHU +4.9%. DANG +5.9%. YNDX +4%. SIFY +3.4%.
- Google's Q3 results, details, CC remarks, transcript
RENN vs. ETF Alternatives
Renren Inc is engaged in the operation of social networking internet platform, as well as provision of online advertising services and internet value-added services, including online gaming operations, online talent show and other IVAS, among others.
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