ProShares UltraShort Technology (REW)

All Comments on REW

  • commenter
    Matt Callow
    Apr 11 12:10 AM
    My Website
    The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It [view article]
    Here's my response to two of the posts:

    AnonGeneral: Shorting the Russell 2000 should be just as profitable as shorting the Nasdaq or the Dow. However, small caps tend to lead large caps when coming out of a downturn, so I would expect the Russell 2000 to be the first of those three indexes to turn positive.

    globalmacro: I think it's a bit unfair to jump on one bad pick. For the record, I have only written articles on Seeking Alpha for three stocks. If you visit my blog, you will see that my Monthly Stock Portfolio is up 3.92% since it's inception on October 1st. The S&P 500 is down 11% over the same period. That's nearly a 15% outperformance in just six months. When you go to my blog, feel free to see my Motley Fool Caps Ranking. I currently outrank over 98% of the other stock pickers on that site. I'm more than willing to admit a bad pick, but let's get the rest of the facts on the table before you go around trying to smear my reputation.     Reply
  • commenter
    GKM
    Apr 10 11:01 PM
    The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It [view article]
    It was interesting today that Bernanke said the US should be able to avoid a depression based on the lessons learned from his study of the Great Depression. Hmmm, so he thinks a depression is possible and he thinks that the situation is a direct parallel to the Great Depression.

    I admire his confidence but sometimes all the study in the world of an old test doesn't prepare you for the test that has yet to be written.     Reply
  • commenter
    globalmacro
    Apr 10 06:51 PM
    The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It [view article]
    Arent you a little late to the party? I seem to recall some earlier posts where you called for a number of stocks to have big years (ie Landec which is down to 8.80 from 13 when you recommended it). You're just like a Wall Street analyst -- you only come around once the move has already happened. If you want to get in front of the crowd, it's too late to get this bearish. Reply
  • commenter
    johnthebear
    Apr 10 06:49 PM
    The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It [view article]
    The FED is just now saying out loud that we are in a recession, and have begun to say the nasty words "prolonged" recession! Have you ever heard them use that terminology before? I haven't!

    They are trying so hard to spare our feelings and wanting us to know the grim truth. Not since the great depression has there been a time of World-Wide slowdown of all the world indexes at the same time (except South America), all trading below their 200 day moving average.

    Both PE and earnings can fall in a long..."prolonged recession," one that might last 5 years to bottom and 5 years to recover to the present level. I say that because with the expected $1 trillion dollar loss of capital by the worlds banking system, there will be insufficient capital going forward to finance homes, business and commercial real estate to do anything more than just limp along, year after year. It will take a long time to recover that lost investment capital... and much longer still to recover the $6 trillion already lost by the stock markets all over the world. That stock-wealth is no longer available to be sold to invests in wealth production or to prop up liberal government with high taxes, etc. as we will soon have with the liberal democrats taking the congress and white house. Sound like we are going back to 90% tax rates to sustain our present appetite for social programs. It will be very hard to cut budgets of national/state/local as well as personal budgets back to the point that we spend what we have, rather than what we can borrow. This truly is a crisis.

    I am ultra short SRS and FXP. I am playing these like a cash register, they go up and down in short sharp swings which can be very profitable. I look for SRS to rise sharply after the REIT earnings are announced, the first week of May.
    Reply
  • commenter
    Paulo
    Apr 10 04:08 PM
    The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It [view article]
    So your argument is that the U.S. is headed into a heavy recession. The evidence is declining GDP, falling home prices (with no end in sight), the more than doubling of household debt as a proportion of GDP (and the rising use of more expensive credit card debt), declining non-farm payrolls and increasing civilian unemployment, rising bankruptcies, falling corporate earnings and the ongoing disaster in the financial sector. No mention is made of the financially overextended American government.
    It is also argued that the U.S. will take the rest of the world with it. The evidence here is thus far rather thin. You point to the Baltic Dry Index and railroad activity data. The data on world stock markets clearly indicate that it the U.S. markets that are the most overvalued.
    Though 'pockyclips' (see above) is right in pointing out that the growing middle class in India and China (and other emerging market countries) will not be able to fill the gap created by U.S. consumers in recession mode, the worldwide growth of the middle class (who are middle class in terms of purchasing power parity of their local curency) is resulting in much stronger domestic markets which might continue to grow even during a U.S. recession.
    The decoupling thesis may have been carried too far, but it remains to be seen whether the rest of the world will go into economic collapse because U.S. consumers are having difficulty with their mortgage and credit card payments and that the world will only re-emerge from this when these same consumers (and their banks) have their financial affairs back in order.
    Half of the construction cranes in the world are said to be currently found in China and would appear to be, thus far, still active.     Reply
  • commenter
    Anongeneral
    Apr 10 03:21 PM
    My Website
    The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It [view article]
    Thanks for the nice article Matt - really well done, and very generous of you to share with all of us. Are you considering shorting the Russell 2000 as well, or are you mostly just focused on the DJIA and NASDAQ?

    thoughts appreciated.     Reply
  • commenter
    pockyclips
    2020
    Apr 10 02:56 PM
    The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It [view article]
    The globalists who think the Chinese and Indian middle class will
    take up consumer spending where Americans leave off are wrong.
    Together, they may be twice as big, but have 8-10 times less income.

    As early as mid-summer, Chindia will have to cut back on production.
    And they will either join us in our economic morass, or start a war to keep on producing.     Reply
  • commenter
    Cheap
    Apr 10 01:07 PM
    My Website
    The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It [view article]
    I have driven a Plug-in Hybrid for a year now that gets over 100mpg using Clean Domestic Wind Energy to offset the amount of Dirty Foreign Oil I need to buy.
    In a month, for about 2,100 miles I use 15 gallons of gas, and 18.00 of electricity. At today’s cost of $3.25 per gallon, that is a total of $66.75. That works out to be about 3.2 cents per mile. In a standard Prius, that would be 6.5 cents per mile. In my Yukon that would be 27 cents per mile.
    Look at it this way, at gas costs of $3.25;
    Yukon, $568.75/month
    Prius, $136.5/month
    Plug-in Prius, $66.75/month

    Those are numbers and Real Dollars you can take to the bank!

    Do the math for yourself… your car vs. a 50mpg Prius.

    Burning Fuel, “any liquid fuel” in our cars to throw into the air for all of us, and our children, to breathe into our lungs is bad. Why keep being a slave to a pump when electricity is already pumped into your home and you can even make it on the roof of your house.

    Plug-in cars are now going to work for everyone, but they are coming even if I have to build them all myself. I’ve done five so far and more are on the way.
    Reply
  • commenter
    SeekingAlpha
    Editors
    Apr 06 05:21 AM
    My Website
    General Discussion on REW
    Is this a buy or a sell? Reply
  • commenter
    Kunst
    Apr 03 02:00 AM
    ProShares Ultra and UltraShort Sector ETFs: Does 2 = 2? [view article]
    (1 + x) * (1 - x) = 1 - x^2

    (1 + 2x) * (1 - 2x) = 1 - 4x^2

    Still, if you get the direction right, the 2x should still put you ahead more than the 1x, but not twice as much. If you get the direction wrong, you are in a world of hurt. In a trading range, the above formulas show that the ultra bleeds you much faster than the straight.

    This is true of both ultra and ultrashort.     Reply
  • commenter
    Michael
    Bommarito
    Apr 01 02:28 PM
    My Website
    ProShares Ultra and UltraShort Sector ETFs: Does 2 = 2? [view article]
    Also, in response to User 170913, I've used adjusted close values for these calculations, so the dividends are already incorporated. Reply
  • commenter
    Michael
    Bommarito
    Apr 01 02:22 PM
    My Website
    ProShares Ultra and UltraShort Sector ETFs: Does 2 = 2? [view article]
    All numbers I use in calculations are cumulative log-returns, so Ben and Cato's comments are not relevant. The bar charts are endpoint cumulative log-return comparisons converted to standard %-return. Reply
  • commenter
    sammyg123
    Apr 01 02:27 AM
    ProShares Ultra and UltraShort Sector ETFs: Does 2 = 2? [view article]
    Yeah. These are good vehicles for short term plays for sure. Reply
  • commenter
    cato
    Apr 01 12:53 AM
    My Website
    ProShares Ultra and UltraShort Sector ETFs: Does 2 = 2? [view article]
    Bingo Ben! People get confused and think these funds will attempt to track 2X (or -2X) over the course of a year. In fact, their goal is to do it _every day_.

    Whether you realize it or not, a 2X fund is an implicit momentum play, since it reloads every day. It will always force you to buy a little more at higher prices and a little less at lower prices. If the market goes up and down a lot over a year and then ends the year unchanged, you will lose a lot of money!

    Reply
  • commenter
    Ben
    Davenport
    Apr 01 12:01 AM
    ProShares Ultra and UltraShort Sector ETFs: Does 2 = 2? [view article]
    I think your fundamental premise that the cumulative returns must be the negatives of one another is wrong. Take the following example of an ultra-long etf ULX and and ultra-short etf USX. Assume both start at 100.

    On day 1, let's say the index moves up 25%. ULX should move up 50% to 150, while USX loses 50% to close at 50. Now, on the second day let the underlying index lose 15%. That means that ULX loses 30% (45) to close at 105, and USX gains 30% to end at 65.

    So, at the end of 2 days, ULX now has a return of +5%, while USX has a whopping -35% loss. So, even with perfect tracking, you do NOT get what you expect.

    In other words, it makes a difference whether you lose x% and then gain y% than to gain y% and then lose x%. Therefore, your chart is not really telling us much of anything useful.     Reply
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