Despite the astonishing run up from this year’s March lows, some investors are searching for reasons to invest in bank stocks. There are many reasons to avoid them but there are also some who believe that some banks are worth looking into. In this post, I will list 9 U.S. banks in two sets that seem attractive relative to hundreds of other banks.

But before getting into the list, we must remind ourselves that the easy money in bank stocks may already be gone. For example, in Is the bank stock rally over? Peter Lee of Euromoney said:

Nine more banks failed in the U.S. last Friday bringing the total to 115 this year. Still many more are at risk of failure through the end of this year and next year. Despite the talk of recovery, banks are not out of the woods yet. Though the financials in the S&P 500 are up about 12% so far this year, bank stocks have a long ways to go before they return to the normalcy that existed pre-2008.

So what does the future hold for the U.S. banking? Will the U.S. banking industry go through the similar phases that the Japanese banks went through in the past following their big crisis?

According to some news reports Tuesday, the U.S. Congress is gaining support for a Tax Loss Carryback proposal. We're not seeing a lot of news about this proposal but it seems to be something that would be very bullish for the worst off stocks in this economy. Any corporation that made a ton of money in 2004-2007 and is now losing truckloads of money would be able to reclaim some taxes paid in those previous years.

It could be a huge boon to financials struggling to raise capital or manufactures that saw boom years and now are struggling to make ends meet in these lean times. It seems odd that Congress would inact such a law to help the hated banks, but then again a lot of the smaller banks could use some help to stay afloat and continue lending. On the flip side, it would further help to support companies not allowing the best players to gain deserved market share. Some of the banks in strong capital shape might see less growth potential with such a bill.

Regions Financial Corp. (RF) – Large-volume bearish put plays in the November contract launched the financial services firm onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner. Shares are currently lower by 2% to $4.97. One investor banked gains on a previously established bearish position and subsequently rolled the position to a lower strike price. It appears the trader originally purchased 20,000 puts at the November 6.0 strike for approximately 60 cents per contract on September 16, 2009, when shares were trading at $6.39. The put options have since landed in-the-money, allowing the trader to sell the contracts today at an average premium of 1.04 each. Net profits on the sale amount to approximately 44 cents per contract for a total of $880,000. Next, the investor established a new bearish position by purchasing 20,000 puts at the in-the-money November 5.0 strike for 34 cents a-pop. Profits will begin to accumulate if Region’s shares slip beneath the breakeven price of $4.66 by expiration. Option implied volatility on the stock steadily increased throughout the trading week, rising 29% since Monday’s opening value of 52%, to the current high of 67%.

Yesterday, the President rolled out another plan to get loans to small businesses. I'm glad that it was a low key event because it was but a very small step in the right direction. The President said all the right things about the role of small business, and he could have said so much more since they are the backbone of our economy. Just think, I can't remember the last time the Challenger Gray survey reported big businesses hiring employees. That said, the latest offering from the Administration misses the point, and maybe that is on purpose. The SBA itself is such an antiquated agency and needs to revamp the way it goes about assessing risks and qualifications. Moreover, small banks are reluctant to do business with the government and TARP, which explains why none have taken the bait thus far.

On the topic of TARP, the most recent news on those giant too-big-to-fail banks that got your tax money is another heartbreaker. According to an article, the 22 biggest TARP recipients haven't increased their small business lending; instead they've cut their outstanding balances by $8.0 billion. Keep in mind that TARP banks spent $77.0 million on lobbyists and $37.0 million on federal campaign contributions last year, making the TARP payout a pretty good return on investment. I don't fret about lobbyists and such but I do fret about the lack of respect afforded small businesses and the fact so much money has been sprinkled elsewhere. We were promised trickle up economics, but that hasn't been the case at all...the exact opposite in fact.

Over the past few years many US banks have diversified into the insurance sector to increase and smooth out their earnings, and offer related financial products to customers. During the credit crisis and the current recession, insurance brokerage fee income is helping banks with strong and stable revenues while other types of revenues are decreasing. Due to this effect, venturing into an unrelated industry is helping banks. However banks are better at concentrating their main line of business which is banking. Out of the hundreds of banks that have tried this, only a few have been successful. Nevertheless insurance brokerage fee income has become a significant part of the earnings of some large banks.

On October 20th, Michael White Associates released the “Michael White-Prudential Bank Insurance Brokerage Fee Income Report” for the first half ’09. In the first six months, insurance fee income for a handful of companies was $6.05B. This report:

Q3 2009 Earnings Call

October 20, 2009 11:00 AM ET

• Apple: What recession? Apple (AAPL) customers continued to buy up iPhones and Mac computers, seemingly ignoring the recession and helping the company's Q4 results shine. "We are thrilled to have sold more Macs and iPhones than in any previous quarter," Steve Jobs said. Apple easily exceeded analysts' Q4 earnings expectations as back-to-school promotions drove sales: revenue grew 25% to $9.87B versus last year's quarter, while net income surged 47% to $1.67B (see more numbers below). Apple shares rose 7.2% to $203.43 in after-hours trading; the stock has more than doubled this year. Read Apple's earnings call.
• Lehman's Europe unit readies $90B claim. Lehman's European arm, now managed by PricewaterhouseCoopers, is preparing a new $90B claim against the U.S. parent of the failed bank - bringing the unit's total claims against various Lehman entities globally to $208B. PwC fees for managing the wind-down so far: €168M ($253M).
• Icahn targets CIT. Corporate raider Carl Icahn turned up the heat on CIT Group (CIT) Monday, slamming the company for unfairly favoring large bondholders with its revised debt exchange offer and saying he was prepared to offer a better deal by lending the company $6B and saving it $150M in fees. In a letter to CIT's board, Icahn said the proposed alternative $6B loan package is "the latest example of incompetent and unconscionable behavior" from CIT's board. Prospective lenders, he says, would get well in excess of what the current syndicated loan market should dictate, in exchange for voting their debt in favor of the company's reorganization plan.
• Morgan confirms Van Kampen sale to Invesco. Morgan Stanley (MS) confirmed Monday that it's selling its retail asset-management business, including the Van Kampen fund unit, to Invesco (IVZ), for $1.5B in stock and cash, including a 9.4% stake in Invesco. "By taking a minority interest in Invesco, Morgan Stanley will be able to realize significant value in partnership with a world-class player," co-president James Gorman said. The deal, rumored for months and expected to close in mid-2010, will remove some sales limits that Van Kampen managers faced since Morgan's JV with Smith Barney closed.
• Bernanke warns U.S., Asia to mind the gap. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke called on U.S. and Asian leaders to "avoid ever-increasing and unsustainable imbalances in trade and capital flows," saying the U.S. financial system is currently "overwhelmed" by an inflow of capital. Speaking Monday at a San Fran. Fed conference on Asia, Bernanke warned that while the U.S. trade deficits with developing countries are not as onerous as they were two years ago, they are still a threat to the global economy. World leaders believe global economic growth must begin to depend less on the U.S. consumer.
• Fed tests exit tool... As global central banks begin to weigh inflation risks, the Fed confirmed Monday it has begun experimenting with "triparty" reverse repo agreements, but says their actual use is not imminent. In a reverse repo, the Fed pledges mortgage-backed securities and Treasurys it bought as collateral for short-term loans, thereby draining cash from the financial system. Reverse repos are normally the domain of the 18 primary dealers; the experiment involves extending that to deals with the $2.5T money-market mutual fund business.
• ... while Australia says inflation risk looms. The Reserve Bank of Australia believes that the risk to global economic growth is passing, and that the bigger threat is now inflation. "Keeping interest rates at very low levels for an extended period could therefore threaten the achievement of the inflation target over the medium term," according to minutes from its Oct. 6 meeting, released Tuesday. At the meeting, the RBA unexpectedly raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 3.25% - its first such hike since March 2008, and the first in a major developed economy since the start of the financial crisis last year.
• Galleon faces massive withdrawals. Clients of hedge-fund giant Galleon jumped ship Monday after Friday's arrest of co-founder Raj Rajaratnam, forcing Galleon to unload some of its holdings, including tech stocks. So far, investors have requested $1.3B of the total $3.7B Galleon manages, and two of its brokerage firms - Bank of America (BAC) and Barclays (BCS) - have cut off relations with the firm. In a letter to investors and employees Monday evening, Rajaratnam said the charges "are, without exception, entirely baseless," and vowed to defend the firm.
• Financial sector fraud on the rise. Fraud is increasing twice as fast in the financial sector as in other sectors, according to Kroll's annual Global Fraud Report, released Monday. In a survey, senior executives said North America had been particularly hit hard by the financial crisis: the average financial services company lost over $15M to fraud over the past three years. The report comes as sources say investigators plan to charge 10 more securities dealers with insider trading, some linked to Galleon Group, which is at the center of one of the biggest-ever undercover operations into illegal trading (see above).
• Bair speaks up for small banks. FDIC head Sheila Bair warned Monday small community banks are struggling to compete against their too-big-to-fail rivals. "Too big to fail has become worse," she said, "it's become explicit when it was implicit before." Bair contends government guarantees create competitive disparities between large and small banks, because "everybody knows small institutions can fail," making it more expensive for them to raise capital and secure funding.
• China fires new salvo in trade tussle. In the latest in a series of China-U.S. trade disputes, China's Ministry of Commerce took preliminary measures Monday to impose tariffs of as much as 36% on certain nylon imports from the U.S., saying the imports have damaged the domestic industry. The ruling affects imports of Nylon 6, used to manufacture a variety of products, including toothpaste and chiffon. Affected U.S. firms include BASF's (BASFY.PK) U.S. arm and Honeywell (HON).
• Group support for Microsoft/Yahoo tie-up. In an open letter, advertising industry heavyweights urged the Department of Justice to fast-track approval of a Microsoft (MSFT) / Yahoo (YHOO) tie-up, saying the potential benefits for advertisers, marketing services agencies, Web site publishers and consumers are "too important to wait for." Google (GOOG) remained more circumspect, perhaps because it doesn’t want to alienate customers.

Earnings: Before Open

• Autoliv (ALV): Q3 EPS of $0.36 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $1.33B (-14.2%) vs. $1.28B. Shares -0.4% premarket. (PR)
• Bank of New York Mellon (BK): Q3 EPS of $0.54 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $3.33B (+3.7%) vs. $3.18B. Provision for credit losses goes to $147M from $61M last quarter. (PR)
• Biogen Idec (BIIB): Q3 EPS of $1.12 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $1.12B (+2.8%) in-line. Shares -1.9% premarket. (PR)
• BlackRock (BLK): Q3 EPS of $2.10 beats by $0.17. Revenue of $1.14B (-13.2%) in-line. "Improving investor sentiment was the most important factor in third quarter results. Clients are putting money back to work in the markets, driving inflows in equities and bonds, and outflows in money market funds industry-wide." Shares +0.9% premarket. (PR)
• Brinker International (EAT): FQ1 EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $778M (-20.9%) vs. $766M. Cost of sales fell to 28.2% from 28.4% last quarter. (PR)
• Caterpillar (CAT): Q3 EPS of $0.64 beats by $0.58. Revenue of $7.29B vs. $7.49B. "We believe the third quarter marked the low point for Caterpillar sales and revenues in what has been the toughest recession since the 1930s. We are seeing encouraging signs that indicate a recovery may be underway." Shares +4.4% premarket. (PR)
• China Mobile (CHL): Q3 net profit of 28.6B yuan ($4.2B), up 2.6% from 27.9B last year, short of consensus of 29.2B. Sales rose 9% to 114.1B yuan. Ebitda rose 5% to 57.8B yuan, short of 58.1B consensus. (Bloomberg)
• China Telecom (CHA): Q3 profit of 2.39B yuan ($350M), down from 4.6B last year, and well short of consensus of 3.68B. Ebitda profit margin slipped to 41.1% from 42.3%. (Reuters)
• Coach (COH): FQ1 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $761M (+1.1%) vs. $754M. (PR)
• Coca-Cola (KO): Q3 EPS of $0.82 in-line. Revenue of $8.04B (-4.2%) vs. $8.11B. "We expect the consumer to continue facing economic uncertainties into 2010 and for consumer sentiment to recover slowly.: Shares -1.2% premarket. (PR)
• Comerica (CMA): Q3 EPS of -$0.10 beats by $0.43. $311M provision for loan losses, unchanged from Q2. (PR)
• Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH): Q3 FFO of $0.19 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $138M (-14.6%) vs. $134M. (PR)
• DuPont (DD): Q3 EPS of $0.45 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $5.96B (-18.3%) vs. $6.14B. Sees full-year EPS of $1.95-2.05 vs. $1.83. "We see overall sequential improvement in our industrial businesses as market conditions begin to firm." (PR)
• Forest Laboratories (FRX): FQ2 EPS of $0.85 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $963M (+4%) vs. $1B. (PR)
• Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company (GAP): FQ2 EPS of -$1.18 misses by $0.47. Revenue of $2.06B (-5.4%) vs. $2.13B. "The current challenging economy continues to impact our business. The macro headwinds including rising unemployment, intensifying price competition and now also deflation are creating an even more difficult short-term economic environment." Shares -9.7% premarket. (PR)
• Illinois Tool Works (ITW): Q3 EPS of $0.60 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $3.58B (-19.8%) in-line. Operating margin 13.5% up from 9.9% last quarter. (PR)
• Invesco (IVZ): Q3 EPS of $0.24 in-line. Revenue of $706M vs. $687M. Shares +3.6% premarket. IVZ announced yesterday it would acquire Morgan Stanley's (MS) retail asset management business, including Van Kampen Investments." (PR)
• Jefferies Group (JEF): Q3 EPS of $0.42 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $M (+154.5%) in-line. Shares +6.1% premarket. (PR)
• Journal Communications (JRN): Q3 EPS of $0.02 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $105M (-22.9%) vs. $108M. (PR)
• LaBranche (LAB): Q3 EPS of -$0.22 misses by $0.27. Revenue of $M in-line. Shares -4.9% premarket. (PR)
• Lockheed Martin (LMT): Q3 EPS of $2.07 vs. consensus of $1.83. Revenue of $11.06B (+4.5%) vs. $11.4B. (PR)
• Lexmark (LXK): Q3 EPS of $0.65 beats by $0.20. Revenue of $958M (+6%) vs. $901M. Gross margin 32.7% vs. 32.5%. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.50-0.60 vs. $0.47, revenue "up slightly." Stronger than expected customer demand drove better than expected growth. (PR)
• Marshall & Ilsley (MI): Q3 EPS of -$0.68 in-line. Average loans and leases fell 6% to $47.1B. "There are some encouraging early signs that credit quality is improving, but we realize it will take a few more quarters to fully address our problem loans." Announces $775M common stock offering. Shares -10.2% premarket. (PR)
• Parker-Hannifin (PH): FQ1 EPS of $0.45 beats by $0.28. Revenue of $2.24B (-27%) vs. $2.17B. Shares +4.9% premarket. (PR)
• Peabody (BTU): Q3 EPS of $0.49 beats by $0.26. Revenue of $1.67B (+24.6%) vs. $1.42B. Shares +4.2% premarket. (PR)
• Pfizer (PFE): Q3 EPS of $0.51 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $11.62B (-2.9%) vs. $11.41B. Sees full-year EPS of $2.00-2.05 vs. $1.98. (PR)
• Precision Castparts (PCP): FQ2 EPS of $1.54 misses by $0.09. Revenue of $1.3B (-27.6%) vs. $1.4B. "From a top-line perspective, overall sales declines seem to be bottoming out in the second quarter." Shares -3.1% premarket. (PR)
• Regions Financial (RF): Q3 EPS of -$0.37 misses by $0.12. Revenue of $1.62B (-20.3%) vs. $1.58B. Allowance for credit losses +2.9% to $1.025B. Shares +0.35% premarket. (PR)
• Sherwin Williams (SHW): Q3 EPS of $1.51 beats by $0.16. Revenue of $2B (-12%) in-line. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.35-0.55 vs. $0.61, and revenue down 8-12% Y/Y. (PR)
• State Street (STT): Q3 EPS of $1.05 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.24B (-19.3%) in-line. Shares -0.75% premarket. (PR)
• UAL (UAUA): Q3 EPS of -$0.43 beats by $0.51. Revenue of $4.43B (-20.3%) in-line. Shares +8.1% premarket. (PR)
• UnitedHealth (UNH): Q3 EPS of $0.89 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $21.7B (+7.6%) vs. $21.56B. (PR)
• United Technologies (UTX): Q3 EPS of $1.14 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $13.38B (-11.3%) in-line. "Order rates for most of our businesses have largely stabilized, although the shape of recovery is still uncertain." (PR)
• Western Union (WU): Q3 EPS of $0.33 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $1.31B (-4.6%) in-line. Says recent stabilization trends are encouraging. (PR)

Earnings: Mon. After Close

• Apple (AAPL): FQ4 EPS of $1.82 beats by $0.40. Sales of $9.87B vs. $9.2B. Sees FQ1 EPS of $1.70-1.87 vs. consensus of $1.91 on sales of $11.3-11.6B, in line. Sold 3.05M Macs, 10.2M iPods, and 7.4M iPhones during quarter. Gross margin 36.6%. Shares +5.9% AH. (PR)
• Atheros Communications (ATHR): Q3 EPS of $0.46 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $157M (+13%) vs. $147M. Shares +2.1% AH. (PR)
• Boston Scientific (BSX): Q3 EPS of $0.19 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $2.03B (+3%) vs. $2.04B. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.17-0.21 vs. $0.17. Expects full-year adjusted EPS of $0.75-0.79 vs. $0.56. Shares -7% AH. (PR)
• JDA Software Group (JDAS): Q3 EPS of $0.40 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $96M (-3%) vs. $92M. Shares -2.8% AH. (PR)
• Lincare (LNCR): Q3 EPS of $0.53 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $393M (-3%) vs. $391M. Shares -0.8% AH. (PR)
• Packaging Corp. of America (PKG): Q3 EPS of $0.25 in-line. Revenue of $554M (-11%) vs. $549M. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.13 vs. $0.17. Shares -7.4% AH. (PR)
• Steel Dynamics (STLD): Q3 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $1.2B (-54%) vs. $1.1B. Shares +2.6% AH. (PR)
• Texas Instruments (TXN): Q3 EPS of $0.42 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $2.9B (-15%) vs. $2.8B. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.42-0.50 vs. $0.40. "Our balance sheet is strong and has allowed us to opportunistically make investments in Analog and Embedded Processing throughout this downturn that should provide returns for years to come." Shares +2% AH. (PR)
• UDR Inc. (UDR): Q3 FFO of $0.31 beats by $0.01. Rental income of $150M (+2%) vs. $149M. Lowers full-year FFO guidance to $1.14-1.20 from $1.23-1.35, vs. consensus of $1.27. Shares -0.5% AH. (PR)
• Volterra Semiconductor (VLTR): Q3 EPS of $0.19 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $29.7M (-3%) in-line. Shares -10.3% AH. (PR)
• Werner (WERN): Q3 EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $429M (-27%) vs. $428M. Shares +3.3% AH. (PR)
• Zions Bancorp (ZION): Q3 EPS of -$1.41 misses by $0.17. Revenue of $753M (+29%) vs. $633M. Shares -1.1% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

Asian markets were mostly higher Tuesday, while Europe stocks were mostly lower. Nasdaq futures are well higher on the strength of Apple's (AAPL) blowout Q4; other indexes are flat.

Over the past few weeks, the much acclaimed PPIP program has started to find its way into the news again. Billed as a savior to the much maligned non-agency MBS space, this idea by the Treasury was a relatively solid game plan to bring back liquidity.

During early 2009, very clean 15yr private MBS (think 2003-2004, highly seasoned, less than 1% total delinquencies) was trading in the high eighties to low nineties. Why is this significant? I will explain. Fresh off the credit collapse and stuck with every negative connotation, demand for this product was at an all time low. For the type of paper listed above, and other similar types, 20+% loss adjusted yields were available.

The recession continues to weigh heavily on banks as U.S. regulators on Friday shuttered three more banks in Michigan, Minnesota and Colorado. This takes the total number of failed federally insured banks this year to 98, compared to 25 in 2008 and 3 in 2007.

The failed banks were Warren, MI-based Warren Bank with about $538 million in assets and $501 million in deposits; Spring Grove, MN-based Jennings State Bank with total assets of $56 million and deposits of $52 million and Pueblo, CO-based Southern Colorado National Bank with about $40 million in total assets and $32 million in deposits.

As posted in Charting the banks on OptionMaestro.com, I was once extremely bullish on the financial stocks. Most of the targets which were unheard of back on May 10, have either been hit or passed. I am currently bearish short term; I believe we will see profits taken over the next month which would cause these financial stocks to move lower. In this article I will describe a way which I have been using (and will continue to use) to capture the downside on the financial sector. To understand the trade described in this article, you'll need a background of trading stock options. To learn more about the option strategy that will be outlined in this article, risks, pricing, calculations, other strategies, and options in general, click here.

Why the financial sector? I chose the financial stocks because they are up the greatest % since the market bottom, and if this sell off continues, we may see the financial stocks suffer the most. The table below shows the performance of 10 financial stocks since March 9, 2009 (closing low on the S&P 500). Stocks are ranked in order from greatest % gain to least. I used data from Google Finance, so I know everyone has access to it as well.

Sunday’s chart of the week, which looked at Implied Volatility of DJIA Components: Now vs. 52 Week High, received enough interest to warrant a follow-up that examines the current implied volatility vs. the 52 week high IV of the 19 financial institutions which were subjected to the government stress tests. [link to stress test results]

The chart below (click to enlarge) sorts the financial institutions from left to right according to their 52 week implied volatility highs, with GM omitted. While not captured in the graphic, I find it interesting that the two institutions whose current IV is the lowest compared to the high IV are Morgan Stanley (MS) at 12.7% of the 52 week high and Goldman Sachs (GS) at 18.9% of the 52 week high. Those institutions whose current IV is closest to the 52 week high (in percentage terms) are BB&T (BBT) at 36.3% and Regions Financial (RF) at 34.6%.

By Chris McKhann

Regional Banks were a target for options traders on Friday, as the puts in a host of names hit the tape.

Regions Financial (RF) – Investors exhibited near-term bearish sentiment on RF today by piling into put options on the stock. Shares of Regions Financial have slipped 1% lower today to stand at the current price of $5.54. The heaviest volume was observed at the September 5.0 strike where about 31,000 puts look to have been purchased for an average premium of 11 cents apiece. More pessimistic traders looked to the lower October 4.0 strike to get long of 3,100 puts valued at 10 cents per contract. Perhaps traders exhibiting such behavior are long shares of the underlying stock. If this is the case, the put action was inspired by traders seeking downside protection through expiration next Friday and through October’s expiration day.

Sentiment

Stocks opened higher, but the early gains faded fast and the major averages have been under water throughout most of Friday's trading session. With very little tradable news to guide the early action, the Dow Jones Industrial Average extended this week's three-day 236-point advance heading into the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for September.

The data, released 25 minutes into the trading session, didn't disappoint. According to the index, sentiment improved to 70.2 in early September, up from 65.7 at the end of August and better than the 67.5 economists had predicted. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit session highs on the news.

Only 39 stocks in the S&P 500 are trading below their 50-day moving averages. That means nearly 93% of stocks in the index are trading above their 50-days, which is the highest reading in at least three years. Below we highlight the stocks in the index that are the most overbought and oversold versus their 50-days.

As shown, AIG is the furthest above its 50-day at 61.06%, followed by GCI, EK, HIG, LEN, and C. These are names that have been in perpetual trouble over the last few years, so clearly investors are going out and buying up beaten down, risky names. Other notable stocks on the most overbought list include COF, WYNN, WFMI, and BAC.