GDX's Little Sibling: iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF
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The iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI ACWI Select Gold Miners Investable Market Index.
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Thursday, Mar 611:52 AM
Thursday, Mar 611:52 AM| 7 Comments
- One of the biggest risks to gold miners - aside from lower gold prices - has been country risk where the companies house their mines, but overall country risk is improving, according to a J.P. Morgan analysis.
- The average Fraser PPI score improved for miners in its coverage area, the firm says, as the weighted average of scores using regional NPVs at 5% discount improved 9% over the last survey.
- Newmont Mining (NEM +0.9%) enjoys a boost from Peru’s score, which rose from 42 to 48.5, and from improvements in Africa, as “investors get more comfortable with mining in less developed countries,” J.P. Morgan says.
- Barrick Gold (ABX +0.3%) also could benefit from improvement in Peru; Argentina deteriorated but could be on the verge of changing this year, which also would give Goldcorp’s (GG +0.5%) prospects a boost.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, GLDX, JNUG, RING, GGGG, JDST, PSAU
Monday, Mar 39:55 AM
Monday, Mar 39:55 AM| 10 Comments
- Gold futures are surging in the wake of the crisis in Ukraine, and that's giving precious metals miners a big boost in early trading.
- AU +5.2%, GOLD +5%, GFI +4.6%, MUX +4.1%, BVN +3.9%, MVG +3.6%, SSRI +3.3%, IAG +3.2%, BTG +3.1%, HMY +3.1%, EXK +3.1%, ABX +2.8%, AUY +2.8%, SA +2.8%, SLW +2.7%, GG +2.7%, NEM +2.6%, HL +2.6%, KGC +2.3%, AGI +2.2%, AG +1.9%, NG +1.9%, PPP +1.8%, AUQ +1.6%, PAAS +1.2%, NGD +1%.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, GLDX, JNUG, SLVP, RING, SILJ, GGGG, JDST, PSAU
Friday, Feb 2110:19 AM
Friday, Feb 2110:19 AM| 8 Comments
- Gold miners already have recouped YTD more than a third of what they lost last year, and basic materials investor Malcolm Gissen thinks the rally may have a lot more room to run.
- The co-manager of the Encompass Fund says it’s a great time to invest in gold miners; there’s a jump in merger activities in the sector as well as hostile takeover attempts, which be a sign that higher gold prices are ahead.
- Adam Koos of Libertas Wealth Management prefers to wait to see a base creation and then breakout above bearish resistance lines and moving averages; when that happens, he likes AuRico Gold (AUQ) and Franco-Nevada (FNV).
- Gissen suggests investors dip a toe in the water by buying some of the growing intermediate producers such as Primero Mining (PPP); among the larger producers, Goldcorp (GG) looks most attractive because of the projects it has and the cash flow it will generate this year.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, GLDX, JNUG, RING, GGGG, JDST, PSAU
Tuesday, Feb 1111:54 AM
Tuesday, Feb 1111:54 AM| 33 Comments
- Also enjoying the Yellen testimony (and her tenure thus far) is gold, ahead another 1.2% and $10 shy of taking out $1,300 per ounce for the first time since early November.
- The QE exit is easier said than done, says Peter Boockvar. "I remain of the belief that just as QE helped markets in 2013, the reduced pace of it will be the headwind in 2014 which will eventually lead to a QE pause that will prove to all that the Fed is stuck in this vicious cycle of ease."
- "3.5%, 21%, 38%," writes Barron's Brendan Conway, tallying (in order) today's gain in the gold miners (GDX), the YTD gain in the gold miners, and the YTD gain in the highly speculative junior silver miners (SILJ).
- Related ETFs: GLD, GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, IAU, DUST, PHYS, SIL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, SLVP, JNUG, DGZ, AGOL, GLDI, RING, DGLD, GGGG, SILJ, PSAU, JDST, TBAR, UBG
Wednesday, Feb 56:45 PM
Wednesday, Feb 56:45 PM| 9 Comments
- Gold miners' shares have jumped to the top of performance lists in a dramatic reversal, prompting some strategists to see signs that 2014 may be the year gold regains its shine.
- The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has rebounded 10% YTD following a 54% beating in 2013, the Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) has surged 16% YTD after last year's 61% plunge, and the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has gained 4% YTD after losing 28% in 2013.
- Gold miners may have another $113B of reserves to write down, but most of the expected write-downs are already baked into the price, says ETF's Securities' Simona Gambarini, noting that gold miners are trading at a 4% discount to NAV, the lowest level on record.
- ETFs: NUGT, IAU, DUST, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DGZ, JNUG, AGOL, RING, GLDI, DGLD, GGGG, PSAU, JDST, TBAR, UBG.
Monday, Feb 310:26 AM
Monday, Feb 310:26 AM| 6 Comments
- Gold is up 1.8% to $1,262 per ounce and silver 1.9% to $19.49 following the big miss in the ISM report as traders contemplate maybe a slowdown in the taper, and some bulls dream about a QE4. Up 1.5% at the moment the Gold Miners ETF is ahead 12.9% YTD.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is off 3 basis points to 2.62% and the December 2016 Eurodollar contract is up 9 basis points to 97.99 - suggesting a slower pace of rate hikes, but still pricing in a Fed Funds rate 175 basis points higher than it is today.
- Gold and sliver-related ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, IAU, AGQ, PHYS, DUST, SIL, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DSLV, DBS, SLVP, GLTR, DGZ, AGOL, JNUG, DBP, DGLD, GLDI, RING, GGGG, SLVO, WITE, SILJ, PSAU, JDST, TBAR, USV, UBG, JJP, RGRP, BLNG
Wednesday, Jan 299:49 AM
Wednesday, Jan 299:49 AM| 12 Comments
- As equities open in a broad-based decline, precious metals miners show early strength: ABX +4.1%, NG +4.1%, EXK +3.7%, GG +3.7%, IAG +3.3%, SA +2.9%, AG +2.8%, SSRI +3.1%, AUY +2.7%, GOLD +2.5%, NEM +2.3%, MVG +2.3%, SLW +2.2%, PAAS +2.2%, AU +2.1%, KGC +2.2% (Briefing.com).
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, IAU, AGQ, PHYS, DUST, SIL, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DSLV, DBS, SLVP, GLTR, DGZ, AGOL, DBP, JNUG, DGLD, GLDI, RING, GGGG, SLVO, WITE, SILJ, PSAU, TBAR, JDST, USV, UBG, JJP, RGRP, BLNG.
Saturday, Jan 2510:50 AM
Saturday, Jan 2510:50 AM| 20 Comments
- As gloom and doomish as he's ever been at the Barron's Roundtable, Marc Faber does, however, lean against Felix Zulauf's recommendation to short the Hong Kong ETF (EWH) as a play on a credit bust in China. Property companies are a big component of the Hong Kong stock market, says Faber, and may have already priced in an implosion as they're selling for just 40-50% of asset values. "I would rather buy Hong Kong shares and short the Nasdaq," says Faber.
- It goes without saying that Faber is bullish on gold, but he's a bigger fan of the miners (GDX), noting the fast pace of insider buying in the industry. A member of the board at Sprott, Faber says Eric Sprott has been selling company stock to buy shares in small miners (GDXJ). "If the gold price goes up 30%, Sprott's shares might double, but mining stocks could go up four times."
- Gold mining ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, GLDX, RING, JNUG, GGGG, PSAU, JDST
- Making a decent run after a horrid 3-year stretch, the GDX is up 12% YTD; GDXJ up16.8%.
Saturday, Jan 189:25 AM
Saturday, Jan 189:25 AM| 25 Comments
- Many have predicted the demise of the China boom and were early, says Felix Zulauf at the Barron's Roundtable, but now it's more obvious "it's in a terminal stage." He's playing it by shorting the iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH). The Hong Kong banking system is heavily exposed to mainland China, so when China goes, there could be a banking crisis in Hong Kong. The HK$ is pegged to the greenback, so the HKMA will defend it by hiking rates, smacking the heavily rate-sensitive economy there.
- It's been nearly a decade since Zulauf recommended gold miners, but now's the time the buy the GDX, he says. Gold (GLD) is "washed out ... those who wanted to sell gold have sold it ... Western investors, asset-allocators, ETF players have all sold their gold. The buyers? "Physical gold moved from Western to Eastern hands."
- After 30 years of declining yields, Zulauf isn't a secular bull on U.S. Treasurys, but sees mis-pricing in government paper, noting French 10-year notes yield 50 bps less than comparable U.S. ones. The 10-year Treasury yield could easily fall 75-100 bps and he's a buyer of TLT.
- China-related ETFs: FXI, PGJ, GXC, FXP, HAO, YINN, CYB, CNY, TAO, CHIQ, CHIX, ASHR, YANG, MCHI, PEK, CQQQ, KWEB, DSUM, QQQC, XPP, YAO, CHXX, FXCH, CHII, CHXF, ECNS, YXI, CHIE, CHIM, KFYP, FCA, TCHI, CHLC, CHNA
- Gold and gold miner ETFs: GLD, GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, IAU, PHYS, DUST, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DGZ, AGOL, DGLD, GLDI, RING, GGGG, JNUG, PSAU, TBAR, JDST, UBG
- Long-dated Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, TLH, SBND, ZROZ, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TYBS, TENZ, DLBL
Tuesday, Jan 144:48 PM
Tuesday, Jan 144:48 PM| 16 Comments
- "Do not sell your gold," says Jeff Gundlach, suggesting the yellow metal could hit $1,350 this year. "If you want to speculate, I would be on the long side of the miners." He's long some of them and making some money lately, but overall losing cash on the trade.
- Gundlach scratches his head over the giddiness with which many analysts greet declines in the gold. It's just another asset, after all.
- ETFs: GLD, GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, IAU, PHYS, DUST, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DGZ, AGOL, GLDI, DGLD, RING, GGGG, JNUG, PSAU, TBAR, JDST, UBG
Tuesday, Jan 1411:30 AM
Tuesday, Jan 1411:30 AM| 12 Comments
- "For contrarians, the [gold] outlook appears brighter," write the Ned Davis commodity team of John LaForge and Warren Pies, acknowledging the curiosity of the metal's slump despite central banks printing away and unprecedented physical demand from China.
- The metal is oversold on multiple levels they say, and has good long-term support in the mid-1,100s range. If gold rallies, they continue, then so will the miners.
- Timing is a tough issue, but their best guess is sometime around the end of this quarter, triggered by a mid-year stock market correction. Look for the metal and miners to move first, and the equity downdraft to follow.
- Gold (GLD -0.9%) is off marginally today to $1,249 per ounce, but the broad mining sector (GDX -0.9%) isn't showing any benefit from a $7.50 per share cash offer for Allied Nevada by China Stone Mining Development.
- From yesterday: Goldcorp offers $2.6B for Osisko.
- Related ETFs: GLD, GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, IAU, PHYS, DUST, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DGZ, AGOL, GLDI, DGLD, RING, GGGG, JNUG, PSAU, TBAR, JDST, UBG
Friday, Jan 103:49 PM
Friday, Jan 103:49 PM| 19 Comments
- Gold futures settle at a four-week high, rising 1.4% to $1,246.90, as the surprisingly weak jobs report reopens debate over the pace of bond buying at the Fed; precious metals miners are far outpacing the broader market, with the top gold miner ETF (GDX) surging 3%.
- Among the top miners: ABX +2.3%, GG +3.3%, NEM +2.4%, AU +3.8%, KGC +1.3%, GFI +4.3%, AUY +2.8%, RGLD +5.3%, AGI +2%, AEM +4.5%, SLW +4.4%, IAG +1.9%, FNV +1.5%, CDE +2.3%, EGO +3.8%, NGD +2.9%, NG +6.9%, HMY +2.7%.
- ETFs: GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, GLDX, SLVP, RING, GGGG, SILJ, JNUG, PSAU, JDST.
Wednesday, Jan 81:21 PM
Wednesday, Jan 81:21 PM| 4 Comments
- With the gold mining sector at its cheapest relative value in at least two decades (according to Bloomberg), investment bankers are sniffing around in hope of a rebound in M&A deals. There were just $10.1B in gold producer deals last year, 4.4% less than 2012, and the lowest total since 2004. A pickup in activity, however, was seen in December, with both Goldcorp (GG -0.9%) and Newmont Mining (NEM -1.7%) saying they're looking to add low-cost operations.
- “Majors who have done portfolio optimization will look at some of the juniors and say, ‘Here’s a chance for us to acquire a potentially better asset than we’ve sold and to mitigate the loss of production,’” says Barclays' Paul Knight.
- Possible targets might include single-project developers like Pretium Resources (PVG) and Torex Gold (TORXF +5.3%).
- Thanks to a regime of cost cuts, the 10 largest producers - led by Barrick Gold (ABX -1.7%) - should have some firepower, maybe generating $4.17B of free cash flow this year vs. a negative $1.74B in 2013, says Bloomberg. At the same time, exploration and development companies - who rely on regular financings - have good incentive to sell. “Darwinism is alive and well in the gold industry right now,” says Fidelity's Joe Wickwire. "While ultimately there will be fewer companies producing less gold, “the profitability of the industry is going to go up.”
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, GLDX, RING, GGGG, JNUG, PSAU, JDST
Wednesday, Jan 812:42 PM
Wednesday, Jan 812:42 PM| 36 Comments
- Moody’s is reducing its forward view for the average price of gold and silver in 2014 and beyond to $1,100/oz and $18/oz, respectively, dealing another blow to a precious metals sector already reeling from high costs and low investor confidence.
- The decision means Moody’s likely will take a harsher view of the prospects of the companies whose debt it rates, potentially leading to rating downgrades and higher borrowing costs for miners.
- Moody's rates most of the largest gold producers including Barrick Gold (ABX -1.8%), Newmont Mining (NEM -1.6%), AngloGold (AU -2.1%), Goldcorp (GG -1.5%) and Kinross (KGC -1.1%); ABX and AU already are on a negative outlook from the agency.
- Fundamentals "seem unfavorable over the next couple of years as the global economy maintains forward momentum, governments unwind various stimulus programs, and the threat of inflation remains subdued in most major economies," Moody's writes.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, GLDX, RING, GGGG, JNUG, PSAU, JDST, SIL, SLVP, SILJ.
Tuesday, Jan 711:30 AM
Tuesday, Jan 711:30 AM| 33 Comments
- "The bottom line is that several factors, including chart patterns, sentiment and momentum indicators show signs of life for both (precious) metals and metals mining stocks," writes technician Michael Kahn.
- He notes the GLD - bottoming last month at about the same level as it did in June ($115, or $1,180 per ounce for gold) - is beginning to form a double-bottom chart pattern, though there remains a ways to go before this would be confirmed. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is showing a similar formation.
- The GDX is notable for a bullish divergence in which the relative strength index rises even as the price action makes lower lows - "the first sign that the bears have lost their power."
- "Resilience last week in the face of a rallying U.S. dollar shows that there were forces supporting gold other than simple currency factors."
- Gold and silver ETFs: GLD, SLV, IAU, AGQ, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DSLV, DBS, DGZ, AGOL, GLDI, DGLD, SLVO, TBAR, USV, UBG
- Gold miner ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, GLDX, RING, GGGG, JNUG, PSAU, JDST
Friday, Jan 310:37 AM
Friday, Jan 310:37 AM| 18 Comments
- You can profit on the gold miners in the 2014, says Goldman, but not by owning them. Instead, says the team, take note of the divergence in volatility on the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).
- While the miner's ETF volatility is priced for a nightmare scenario, volatility on the price of gold itself has failed to keep pace. A straddle - in which a punter sells both a put and call option on the GDX - would pay off if the market "begins to chill out on the subject of gold miner volatility," writes Brendan Conway.
- As far as the metals or the miners, they're not yet a buy. “With rising U.S. rates and a less accommodative Fed, we believe a sharp rise in the gold price and gold miner profitability is the least likely scenario."
- Miner ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, GLDX, GGGG, RING, JNUG, PSAU, JDST