F4Q09 Earnings Call

November 9, 2009 8:30 am ET

• Northrop unloads TASC. Northrop Grumman (NOC) agreed to sell its TASC consulting unit to a pair of private-equity firms - KKR and General Atlantic - for $1.65B. TASC unit provides engineering and consulting services to the U.S. military and state governments. Northrop said it expects the sale to generate net cash proceeds of $1.1B, which it will use to repurchase shares. The deal is the latest in a recent uptick in LBO acquisitions which have returned after a two-year dry stretch. Still, with four banks - Barclays (BCS), Royal Bank Of Canada (RY), Deutsche Bank (DB) and a lending unit of the CPP - combining to put up senior debt of well under $1B, today's deals are still a far cry from the mega-mergers of the credit boom.
• G-20 keeps drip open. G-20 leaders said it's too early to withdraw global stimulus efforts despite signs that a global economic recovery is underway. "Economic and financial conditions have improved following our coordinated response to the crisis," officials said in a communique (.pdf) following a two-day gathering in St. Andrews. "However, the recovery is uneven and remains dependent on policy support, and high unemployment is a major concern. To restore the global economic and financial system to health, we agree to maintain support for the recovery until it is assured." Stocks, commodities and futures rallied Monday: "Markets don't need to be worried that these governments and central banks are suddenly going to take away all the stimulus measures," one strategist said. "Risk appetite should remain supported into the end of the year."
• Put up or shut up day for Kraft. Kraft (KFT) could raise the cash portion of its bid for Cadbury (CBY) to 400p ahead of today's deadline, and is expected to take the bid directly to Cadbury's shareholders. Kraft has enlisted Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Credit Suisse (CS), Barclays (BCS) and BNP Paribas to help provide a £5.5B bridge loan. Kraft's initial bid of 300p and 0.2589 KFT shares per CBY share was valued at 745p/share, but is now worth about 720p with the decline in Kraft's stock. According to U.K. takeover rules, by launching an offer today Kraft would set in motion a 28-day deadline to publish a prospectus on the offer for Cadbury shareholders, and would have 60 days to collect enough shares to clinch a deal.
• Healthcare bill: next stop Senate. The Obama healthcare overhaul passed a House vote by a narrow margin Saturday (220-215), setting up a fractious debate in the Senate - where Democrats don't enjoy the same broad majority - this week. The bill would cost $1.05T over a decade to provide health insurance to another 36M Americans. It requires most Americans to carry insurance, creates a new exchange where they can shop for it, and gives low income earners tax credits to help them pay for it. In an appearance Sunday, Obama said he is "absolutely confident" a healthcare bill will also pass through the Senate.
• Sprint group to pour another $1.5B into Clearwire. Sources say Sprint Nextel (S) and a number of its Clearwire JV (CLWR) partners are preparing to pump another $1.5B or more into the wireless broadband provider. The Sprint group first invested $3.2B in Clearwire 18 months ago, taking a majority stake in a bet on Clearwire's version of 4G wireless broadband, WiMax. Some rivals have favored a comparable technology knows as LTE. $1B of a new infusion would come from Sprint, with Comcast (CMCSA), Intel (INTC), Time Warner Cable (TWC) and Bright House Networks kicking in another $500M. Google, a key JV partner, isn't thought to be involved in this round.
• Comcast, GE agree on CNBU valuation. After weeks of wrangling, GE (GE) and Comcast (CMCSA) reportedly agreed to value NBC Universal at about $30B, and a deal to give Comcast a 51% stake in GE's media and entertainment arm could come as early as this week, though it's still unclear whether 20% NCBU stakeholder Vivendi has signed off on the proposal. Sources say the pair met last week with debt-raters to ascertain the impact of $9B in debt a new NBCU would assume as part of the combination, and hope this week to be told it would be considered investment grade.
• Murdoch paper cleared of spy charges. The U.K. Press Complaints Commission said Monday it has found no proof journalists at Rupert Murdoch's The News of the World regularly hacked the phones of public figures to secure sensational stories. The probe was prompted after reports in The Guardian said the practice at the tabloid was widespread. In response, the Guardian described the PCC's report as complacent, saying the PCC did not have the "ability, the budget or the procedures to conduct its own investigations."
• Axa Asia Pacific shuns $10B bid from parent. Axa Asia Pacific (AXAPY.PK), the Australian unit of France’s biggest insurer (AXA -1.1% premarket), rejected an unsolicited $10B bid from its parent and AMP Ltd. (AMLTF.PK). CEO Rick Allert said Axa Asia Pacific would consider a higher offer, but called today's offer too low. Axa said today it will raise £2B through a rights offer to finance acquisitions.
• Brown backs down on transactions tax. World leaders publicly snubbed U.K. PM Gordon Brown's bold pitch for a global tax on financial transactions which would be used to fund future bailouts. Brown surprised ministers by pitching the initiative during a speech to the G-20 assembly Saturday to the dismay of his peers, who unanimously agreed with U.S. Treasury chief Tim Geithner in saying economic leaders don't think taxpayers should have to pay for future financial sector foibles. Brown backed down Sunday, though he continues to believe tighter bank regulation may not suffice to protect against future risk.
• Reynolds eyes stake in smokeless tomorrow. Cigarette giant Reynolds American (RAI) is in advanced talks to buy closely held Niconovum AB, a Swedish maker of nicotine-replacement therapies such as Zonnic pouch and Zonnic gum. A deal would be the largest move by Reynolds into nicotine products, as sales of cigarettes continue to decline. Reynolds controls about 28% of the U.S. cigarette market, second to Altria (MO) which has about 50%. Sources say the deal could be valued at €30M.

Earnings: Mon. Before Open

• DISH Network (DISH): Q3 EPS of $0.18 misses by $0.26. Revenue of $2.89B (-1.5%) vs. $2.93B. Net customers +241K to 13.85M. (PR)
• Energy Conversion Devices (ENER): FQ1 EPS of -$0.34 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $42.9M (-55.2%) vs. $56.4M. Shares -0.1% premarket. (PR)
• GTx (GTXI): Q3 EPS of -$0.35 in-line. Revenue of $3.6M (+20%) vs. $4M. (PR)
• Hospitality Properites Trust (HPT): Q3 FFO of $0.77 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $264M (-15.4%) vs. $272M. (PR)
• Nationwide Health Properties (NHP): Q3 FFO of $0.56 in-line. Revenue of $97.8M (+3.4%) vs. $94.4M. Sees full-year EPS of $2.22-2.23 vs. $2.28. (PR)
• Quicksilver Resources (KWK): Q3 EPS of $0.25 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $207M (-12.5%) in-line. (PR)
• Rockwell Automation (ROK): FQ4 EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $1.07B (-27.6%) in-line. (PR)
• Tesoro (TSO): Q3 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.23. Revenue of $4.74B in-line. Expects to spend less than its stated capex budget of $600M. Shares +3.7% premarket. (PR)
• Warner Chilcott (WCRX): Q3 EPS of $0041 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $253M (+9%) in-line. (PR)
• Western Refining (WNR): Q3 EPS of -$0.05 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $1.83B (-40.6%) vs. $1.75B. Shares +0.5% premarket. (PR)
• Windstream (WIN): Q3 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $734M (-7.5%) vs. $747M. (PR)

Today's Markets

Overseas markets and commodities surged Monday, and U.S. futures have gained overnight. The dollar is getting pounded in early trading.

Sentiment

The major averages opened lower on disappointing jobs data, but then battled back and are little changed late Friday. Stock index futures sank early after the Labor Department reported that the US economy lost 190,000 jobs during the month of October. Stock index futures were higher ahead of the news, but then fell because economists were expecting a smaller 175,000 drop. In addition, the nation's unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped. The percent of unemployed rose to 10.2 percent and its highest since 1983. Economists were expecting the unemployment rate to hold steady at 9.8 percent.

The jobs report wasn't a complete disaster, however. September numbers were revised up to show a loss of 219,000, better than the -263,000 initially reported. August numbers were revised higher as well. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose .3 percent in October, which was better than the .1 percent economist had expected.

Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK) recently reiterated its fiscal 2009 guidance of $1.40 to $1.70 per share, which represents a 59% to 66% year-over-year decline in earnings.

Revenue for the year is expected to fall about 24% compared to 2008 due to a significant deceleration in customer demand, increasing uncertainty in the business environment and unfavorable impact of currency translation.

Back in late February and early March, we made several references to our Bespoke Premium clients that even though the S&P 500 was trading down to new lows, the number of stocks making new lows wasn't expanding, which is very positive for the market. As shown in the chart below, at the October low, 84% of the stocks in the S&P 500 made a new low. Then in November, 63% of stocks hit new lows. At the March low, however, only 36% of the stocks in the S&P 500 made new lows.

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Understanding the true intrinsic value of a company is very important when attempting to identify and take advantage of mispriced securities. The Applied Finance Group (AFG) has proven to be successful at helping their clients find attractive investment opportunities and also help avoid potential torpedo stocks by utilizing their Economic Margin Framework. AFG’s Economic Margin (EM) is the measure of the true economic profitability a company is earning after several adjustments to eliminate distortions caused by traditional accounting practices. Understanding a company’s EM levels and expected changes in EMs is important as it has been proven through vigorous back-tests that a company’s expected change in EMs is highly correlated with the company’s future market performance. Companies expected to improve their EM’s have proven to be more likely to outperform than those companies with declining EMs.

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F3Q09 Earnings Call

July 28, 2009; 08:30 am ET

• AOL goes solo. Time Warner (TWX) filed with the SEC to officially turn AOL into a stand-alone, publicly traded company called AOL Inc. According to the filing, Time Warner repurchased Google's (GOOG) 5% stake in AOL for $283M earlier this month, valuing AOL at less than $5.66B vs. the $20B implied valuation the business carried in 2005.
• Speculators drove oil price spike. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will release a report next month suggesting speculators played a major role in causing oil prices to spike, reversing an earlier finding by the CFTC that attributed oil price swings primarily to supply and demand. One of the CFTC commissioners said the original analysis was based on 'deeply flawed data.' The agency, which is shifting away from its former hands-off approach, is expected to institute rules limiting the investments of large institutions in commodities.
• AIG keeps asset sale proceeds. AIG (AIG) used $2.4B from recent asset sales to improve the capital position of its property-casualty unit rather than using the funds to pay down some of its government debt. AIG's need to use some of the sale proceeds to bolster its own businesses will undoubtedly raise questions about the insurer's ability to repay its government bailout.
• U.S. pledges to rein in deficit. At the beginning of a strategic round of talks with China, Geithner pledged to ensure a 'sustainable' U.S. budget deficit by 2013 as Chinese officials expressed concern over the security of their U.S. financial holdings. There were few signs of tensions over the value of the yuan. Both countries agreed not to prematurely withdraw economic stimulus measures.
• SEC updates short-selling rules. The SEC will no longer require institutional investors to report their short-sale positions on a weekly and confidential basis, part of an effort to curb abuse by making more information about short positions available to the public. The weekly reporting was instituted in October as an emergency measure and will expire August 1. A temporary ban on naked short selling was made permanent.
• Amgen, Glaxo reach drug agreement. Amgen (AMGN) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) reached an agreement to jointly market denosumab, an osteoperosis treatment that could see annual sales of $2B within a decade if approved by regulators. Glaxo will pay $120M for near-term milestones to share profits in Europe and to sell the drug in countries where Amgen doesn't have any exposure. Amgen will market the drug in the U.S. and Canada, and retain the rights to sell it for cancer in Europe once it's approved.
• Third time's the charm for Delphi. Delphi looks set to emerge from nearly four years of bankruptcy protection with its third attempt at an exit plan. Delphi's board approved an offer to split the company between former parent General Motors and lenders, replacing an agreement announced two months ago between GM and Platinum Equity. Under the new deal terms, lenders will forgive $3.4B in debt in exchange for most of the supplier's assets, and the lenders will pay cash to keep Delphi operating. GM will pay a little over $3B for four North American factories and Delphi's steering business.
• BoA to shutter branches. Bank of America (BAC) is planning to slash the company's 6,100-branch network by 10%, reversing two decades of coast-to-coast expansion. Bank officials reportedly attribute the closings to changes in customer preferences, citing the shift away from traditional branches in favor of online and mobile banking. A timeline for the closures wasn't specified.
• Reining in derivatives. Lawmakers are considering steps to curb speculation in the $39T credit default swaps [CDS] market, which could include preventing investors from speculating on a borrower's credit quality. Among the options under consideration to curb speculation are a ban on naked CDS and a requirement that derivative dealers and investment advisers managing more than $100M report their short interests in CDS contracts to the appropriate regulator.
• Magna improves bid. Magna International (MGA) reportedly improved its bid for General Motors' Opel unit, offering to inject €350M upfront vs. an earlier offer of €100M. The improved offer comes after the German government criticized all three bidders for the amount of their own capital they were willing to inject into Opel.
• CVC brews up AB InBev bid. According to media reports, private equity group CVC Capital Partners is prepared to pay up to €1.5B ($2.1B) for the Central and Eastern European assets of Anheuser-Busch InBev. AB InBev was accepting bids until yesterday, by which point CVC and TPG Capital were still in the running but KKR had dropped out.
• New homes sales (.pdf). New home sales came in at 384K in June, up 11% from May, vs. consensus of 350K. Sales were down 21.3% vs. the previous year. The median home price of $206,200 was down from May's $221,600. Inventory of 281K homes represents an 8.8 month supply, down from 10.2 months in May.

Earnings: Tuesday Before Open

• AMB Property (AMB): Q2 EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $147M (-27%) vs. $144M.
• BE Aerospace (BEAV): Q2 EPS of $0.39 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $475M (-9%) vs. $488M. (PR)
• BP (BP): Q2 EPS of $1.01 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $54.8B (-50%) vs. $64B. Shares -1.2% premarket (6:50 ET). (BP press release (.pdf))
• Celanese (CE): Q2 EPS of $0.53 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $1.2B (-33%) vs. $1.3B. (PR)
• Check Point Software (CHKP): Q2 EPS of $0.48 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $224M (+12%) vs. $220M. (PR)
• Coach (COH): FQ4 EPS of $0.43 in-line. Revenue of $778M (-0.5%) vs. $780M. (PR)
• Coventry Health Care (CVH): Q2 EPS of $0.50 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $3.5B (+19%) in-line. (PR)
• Diamondrock Hospitality Company (DRH): Q2 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $144M (-21%) vs. $145M. (PR)
• EarthLink (ELNK): Q2 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $186M (-24%) in-line. (PR)
• Energizer (ENR): Q2 EPS of $1.12 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $997.5M (-6.5%) vs. $1B. (PR)
• FPL Group (FPL): Q2 EPS of $0.99 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $3.8B (+6%) vs. $3.9B. (PR)
• Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG): Q2 EPS of $0.04 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $1.5B (-20%) vs. $1.6B. (PR)
• Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC): FQ3 EPS of $0.76 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.7B (-7%) vs. $2.8B. (PR)
• McGraw-Hill Companies (MHP): Q2 EPS of $0.58 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1.46B (-12%) vs. $1.54B. (PR)
• National Oilwell Varco (NOV): Q2 EPS of $0.90 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $3B (-9.5%) vs. $3.1B. Shares -2.7% premarket (8:10 ET). (PR)
• Office Depot (ODP): Q2 EPS of -$0.22 misses by $0.10. Revenue of $2.8B (-22%) vs. $2.9B. (PR)
• PACCAR (PCAR): Q2 EPS of $0.07 vs. consensus of $0.04 (may not be comparable). Revenue of $1.6B (-58%) vs. $1.7B. Shares +0.9% premarket (8:30 ET). (PR)
• Patriot Coal Corporation (PCX): Q2 EPS of $0.39 vs. consensus of -$0.47 (may not be comparable). Revenue of $507M (+49.3%) vs. $518M. (PR)
• PepsiAmericas(PAS): Q2 EPS of $0.74 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $1.3B (-6%) in-line. (PR)
• Rockwell Automation (ROK): FQ3 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1B (-31.5%) in-line. (PR)
• Smith International (SII): Q2 EPS of $0.15 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $1.9B (-22%) vs. $2B. (PR)
• SUPERVALU (SVU): Q2 EPS of $0.55 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $12.7B (-5%) vs. $12.8B. (PR)
• Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA): Q2 EPS of $0.83 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $3.4B (+20%) vs. $3.5B. (PR)
• Textron (TXT): Q2 EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $2.6B (-29%) in-line. Lowers guidance for FY '09, sees EPS of $0.33-0.63 vs. prior $0.45-0.75, sees FY '09 revenue of ~$10.6B vs. prior $11B. (PR)
• United States Steel Corporation (X): Q2 EPS of -$3.28 beats by $0.17. Revenue of $2.1B (-68.5%) vs. $2.4B. Shares -3.7% premarket (8:30 ET). (PR)
• Valero Energy (VLO): Q2 EPS of -$0.48 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $17.9B vs. $16.3B. Shares -2% premarket (8:15 ET). (PR)
• Viacom (VIA.B): Q2 EPS of $0.49 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $3.3B (-14.5%) vs. $3.5B. (PR)
• Vishay Intertechnology (VSH): Q2 EPS of -$0.10 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $460M (-41%) vs. $459M. Issues upside guidance for Q3, sees revenue of $480-520M vs. $477M consensus. (PR)
• Waddell & Reed Financial (WDR): Q2 EPS of $0.28 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $200M (-21%) vs. $195M. (PR)
• Waters (WAT): Q2 EPS of $0.78 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $363M (-9%) vs. $366M. (PR)

Earnings: Monday After Close

• ACE Limited (ACE): Q2 EPS of $2.09 beats by $0.15. Net premiums written of $3.4B (-5%). (PR)
• Amgen (AMGN): Q2 EPS of $1.29 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $3.7B (-1%) vs. $3.6B. Raises full-year EPS guidance to $4.80-4.95 vs. $4.57. (PR)
• CF Industries (CF): Q2 EPS of $4.33 beats by $1.72. Revenue of $991M (-15%) vs. $764M. (PR)
• Crane Company (CR): Q2 EPS of $0.47 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $545M (-21%) vs. $588M. (PR)
• Desarrolladora Homex (HXM): Q2 EPS of $0.91 beats by $0.24. Revenue of $359M (+8%) vs. $329M. (PR)
• Fidelity National Financial (FNF): Q2 EPS of $0.40 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $1.6B (+34%) in-line. (PR)
• Health Management Associates (HMA): Q2 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1.2B (+5%) vs. $1.1B. (PR)
• Hexcel (HXL): Q2 EPS of $0.18 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $277M (-23%) vs. $302M. (PR)

• Kilroy Realty (KRC): Q2 FFO of $0.79 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $71M (+2%) vs. $66M. (PR)

SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) – The stock market isn’t quite getting the lift that one might have thought possible from the third straight monthly gain in sales of new homes. The report from the Commerce Department showed that June’s new sales were 21.8% lower than a year ago but up 11% month-over-month for a 384,000 seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Average new home prices fell $13,000 to $206,200 between May and June. Homebuilder stocks did flourish and a basket of these stocks gained 2% to $13.83. Options on the ETF were active and pointed to a mixed outlook. August expiration puts at the 14 strike traded some 10,000 times at a mid-market price of 75 cents per contract. This could have been one investor buying stock with built-in protection kicking in at $13.25. However, time and sales data shows that these puts traded simultaneously against the sale of the same amount of call options expiring in December with a 16 strike price for around 65 cents. In this case an investor might have shares put to him at or before August expiration for $14.00 per share and is looking to have them called from him before year end. So this actually appears to be an efficient way of positioning for further market upside of around 14% and at the same time reaping both premiums along the way.

At the end of each trading week, Hillbent scans the equity market for potential anomalies which exhibit extremely oversold and overbought conditions. Past observations have revealed that such candidates may experience reversal corrections to the upside or downside once the market reconfirms that their fundamentals remain solidly intact or relatively poor. From a contrarian perspective, these lists may also serve as a precursor to changes in institutional sentiment and underlying fundamentals.

(The purpose of this report is not to provide specific recommendations, but instead serve as a time-saving reference tool and starting point for investment ideas as the upcoming trading week unfolds. Of course, the results generated are not always perfect and users are strongly encouraged to perform their own due diligence on these names. Note that overbought and oversold conditions are based upon proprietary algorithms and quantitative models instead of conventional technical analysis indicators. As a supplement to this report, please refer to our Market Condition Summary to determine if market direction trends support a bullish or bearish investment bias over short-term, intermediate, and long-term timeframes.)

Goldman Sachs (GS)

Stock prices took off on March 9, 2009 at precisely 15:00 hrs EDT, as investors and traders moved back into the hammered financial and technology sectors.

The S&P 500 index tallied up + 40% after hitting a 12-year closing low in March, helping all 10 S&P sectors advance in the Q-2.

Bloomberg provides a score for companies within the S&P 500 based on an average of all analyst ratings from the street. Below is a table highlighting companies with the best analyst ratings, largest increase in rating, highest price targets, and worst analyst ratings and the valuation attractiveness of each of these companies based on The Applied Finance Group’s (AFG) valuation model.

Companies within each of these groups are ranked from most attractive from a valuation perspective to the least attractive. VE.com will actively track the performance of these recommendations and see how they stack up to the analyst recommendations in each group. AFGview.com, AFG’s professional investor website allows you to compare any company using their rating versus the consensus ratings of the sell side. If you are interested in an analysis on a specific company, contact afgsales@afgltd.com.

Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK)

F2Q09 (Qtr End 3/31/09) Earnings Call

• Six banks fall short on capital. As news of the preliminary stress test results continues to leak out, sources say at least 6 of the nineteen largest U.S. banks will need additional capital. Some may get extra money from the government, but most of the capital will likely come from the conversion of preferred shares to common equity. The Federal Reserve is in the process of hearing appeals from banks (including Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC)) that were told they need a larger capital cushion. Final test results are due to be released next week.
• Citigroup tries to plug capital hole. Citigroup (C) is trying to convince the government that the bank doesn't need more capital beyond recent plans to shore up its balance sheet and cut costs. However, executives have also told regulators that a capital shortfall identified in the stress tests could be filled by selling large businesses (potentially including core business units), further reducing its balance sheet or asking more investors to convert preferred shares into common stock. In short, anything but accepting additional government aid. Separately, Citigroup has reportedly asked the Treasury for permission to pay bonuses to many key employees. Shares +6.6% premarket (7:00 ET).
• Lewis on the line. Bank of America (BAC) holds its annual meeting today, and shareholders will vote on whether CEO Ken Lewis should be re-elected as the company's chairman of the board. Though Lewis is likely to win re-election to the board by a wide margin, a separate shareholder proposal forcing Lewis to give up his position as chairman is still too close to call. The votes come amid news that the company could require up to $70B in extra capital as a result of the government's stress tests. Shares +3.9% premarket (7:00 ET).
• New mortgage mod rules. The White House unveiled new guidelines in its foreclosure-prevention program to address borrowers with home-equity loans and other second mortgages. The original plan didn't address this group of borrowers, despite the fact that roughly half of seriously delinquent borrowers have a second mortgage. Under the revised plan, companies participating in the loan modification program must automatically modify the second mortgage when the first is reworked. The government will share in the cost of reducing the interest rate on second mortgages for five years.
• Chrysler reaches debt deal. Chrysler's largest lenders and the government reached a major breakthrough on debt reduction, agreeing to write down $6.9B in debt to just $2B ahead of Chrysler's bankruptcy deadline tomorrow. Despite the progress, "there is still some way to go in the negotiations," said a White House spokesman, "so I wouldn't rule anything in or out."
• SEC's fraud-fighting team. After a series of high-profile failings, the SEC is creating a team of specialists to focus on fighting fraud and to make the agency "more smart, more swift and more successful." The idea is a major shift for the SEC, which traditionally has relied on enforcement personnel who were generalists. Details of the new plan are not yet finalized.
• AIG tries to lower default risk. Less than a month after resigning, senior AIG (AIG) executive James Shephard has reportedly decided to stay on as the deputy chief of Paris-based Banque AIG. Insiders say Shephard was pressed to stay in order to help stave off the risk of default on $234B of derivatives; his continued presence at the unit will likely deter several European banks that bought derivatives from taking legal action to force AIG to repay them.
• Verizon, MSFT team up on iPhone rival. Verizon (VZ) is said to be holding talks with Microsoft (MSFT) over a touch-screen music-playing mobile phone that could compete with Apple's (AAPL) iPhone. Talks are still in the early stages, but a phone could be introduced next year. Verizon is also reportedly in talks with Apple about selling a version of the iPhone.
• Falling demand, prices hurt ArcelorMittal. ArcelorMittal (MT) posted a wider-than-expected quarterly loss (see details below) as demand slumped and falling metals prices forced the company to lower the value of its inventories. Steel consumption is expected to drop another 15% in 2009, and the company is bracing for market conditions to 'remain challenging.' Shares -2.0% premarket (7:00 ET).
• Dendreon shares yo-yo on prostate drug. Dendreon's (DNDN) shares plunged dramatically yesterday, falling 45% before trading was halted. The sudden drop was in advance of a meeting at which the company presented data on prostate cancer drug Provenge. As it turns out, Dendreon executives reported that Provenge extended the median survival of prostate cancer patients by 4.1 months and improved 3-year survival by 38%. The findings raise fresh expectations of FDA approval, and sent the stock soaring in premarket trading (+127% at 7:00 ET).
• IBM boosts dividend. IBM (IBM) raised its dividend by 10%, and authorized another $3B in stock buybacks. Despite losing Sun Microsystems (JAVA) to Oracle (ORCL), IBM executives said the company absolutely still has the flexibility to make a major acquisition.
• Retail sales. Retail chain store sales fell 0.7% from a week ago, ICSC reported, and dropped 1.7% Y/Y. Consumer traffic fell for most segments, including grocery, drug, department stores and discounters. Redbook recorded that chain store sales gained 1.6% in the first three weeks of April, better than the 1.3% rise expected. Strong seasonal sales drove the improvement.
• Home prices fall (.pdf). S&P/Case-Shiller's 20-city home price index fell 18.6% in February from a year ago, slightly better than the 19% drop seen last month. All 20 areas were still lower from a month ago, but 16 of the 20 saw an improvement in their annual returns. It's the first time since Oct. 2007 that the index didn't post a record annual decline.
• Confidence ticks up. Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index improved considerably in April, rising to 39.2 from March's 26.9. Expectations rose to 49.5 from 30.2. "The sharp increase in the Expectations Index suggests that consumers believe the economy is nearing a bottom, however, this Index still remains well below levels associated with strong economic growth."
• Mfg contraction slows. The Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Index contracted more slowly in April, rising to -9 from March's -20. Shipments gained twelve points to -3, new orders rose eighteen points to -2, and the jobs index edged up two points to -26.
• Mortgage apps fall. Mortgage applications fell 18.1% from a week ago, MBA reported. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages inched down to 4.62% from 4.73%.

Earnings: Wednesday Before Open

• Aetna (AET): Q1 EPS of $0.96 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $8.6B (+10.5%) vs. $8.5B. Reaffirms FY '09 EPS guidance of $3.85-$3.95. (PR)
• American Tower (AMT): Q1 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $409M (+6.9%) vs. $408M. Issues in-line guidance for FY '09, see revenue of $1.64-$1.77B vs. $1.68B consensus. (PR)
• ArcelorMittal (MT): Q1 EPS of -$0.78 misses by $0.39. Revenue of $15.1B (-49.3%) vs. $15.9B. (PR)
• Baker Hughes (BHI): Q1 EPS of $0.82 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $2.7B (-0.1%) vs. $2.6B. (PR)
• Burger King (BKC): FQ3 EPS of $0.34 in-line. Revenue of $600M (+1.0%) vs. $607M. Sees FY '09 EPS of $1.39-$1.42. (PR)
• Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP): Q1 EPS of $0.67 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $335M (+15.5%) vs. $338M. (PR)
• FTI Consulting (FCN): Q1 EPS of $0.60 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $348M (+13.3%) vs. $341M. (PR)
• General Dynamics (GD): Q1 EPS of $1.54 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $8.3B (+18%) vs. $7.8B. (PR)
• Hess (HES): Q1 EPS of -$0.18 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $6.9B (-35.8%) vs. $5.6B. (PR)
• IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI): Q1 EPS of -$0.02 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $332M (-10.4%) vs. $330M. (PR)
• Jones Apparel Group (JNY): Q1 EPS of $0.28 beats by $0.18. Revenue of $891M (-8.6%) vs. $875M. (PR)
• MeadWestvaco (MWV): Q1 EPS of -$0.46 misses by $0.22. Revenue of $1.35B (-10.8%) vs. $1.44B. (PR)
• MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS): Q1 EPS of $0.63 in-line. Revenue of $14.8B (+14.4%) vs. $13.7B. Sees FY '09 EPS of $2.67-$2.77 vs. $2.73 consensus. (PR)
• MGIC Investment (MTG): Q1 EPS of -$1.49 misses by $0.12. Revenue of $435M (+2.7%) vs. $436M. (PR)
• Moody's (MCO): Q1 EPS of $0.41 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $409M (-5.1%) vs. $393M. Declares a quarterly dividend of $0.10/share. (PR)
• PepsiAmericas (PAS): Q1 EPS of $0.20 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $1.1B (-3.7%) in-line. Issues upside guidance for FY '09, sees EPS of $1.83-$1.90 vs. $1.80 consensus. (PR)
• Praxair (PX): Q1 EPS of $0.93 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.1B (-20.3%) vs. $2.4B. Sees FY '09 EPS of $3.85-$4.15, revenue of around $9B. (PR)
• Qwest Communications International (Q): Q1 EPS of $0.12 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $3.2B (-6.6%) in-line. (PR)
• Reynolds American (RAI): Q1 EPS of $1.00 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $1.92B (-6.6%) vs. $1.97B. Sees FY '09 EPS guidance of $4.15-$4.45. (PR)
• Rockwell Automation (ROK): FQ2 EPS of $0.29 in-line. Revenue of $1.1B (-24.8%) in-line. (PR)
• Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A): Q1 EPS of $0.54 misses by $0.54. Revenue of $58.2B vs. $55.2B. Q1 dividend +5% to $0.42/share. "Industry conditions remain challenging, and our focus is on capital discipline and costs." (PR)
• SAP AG (SAP): Q1 EPS of $0.22 misses by $0.07. Revenue of $2.4B (-4%) vs. $2.6B. (PR)
• Sealed Air (SEE): Q1 EPS of $0.33 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $988M (-16.3%) vs. $1.03B. (PR)
• Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL): Q1 EPS of $0.01 beats by $0.01. (PR)
• Southern Company (SO): Q1 EPS of $0.42 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $3.7B (-0.3%) vs. $3.5B. (PR)
• SPX (SPW): Q1 EPS of $0.81 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $1.2B (-13.9%) in-line. (PR)
• Talisman Energy (TLM): Q1 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.16. Revenue of $1.8B (-21.5%) vs. $1.7B. (PR)
• Time Warner (TWX): Q1 EPS of $0.45 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $6.9B (-7%) vs. $6.8B. Reaffirms FY '09 guidance of $1.98 EPS. (PR)
• Time Warner Cable (TWC): Q1 EPS of $0.75 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $4.4B (+4.9%) in-line. (PR)
• Tyco Electronics (TEL): FQ2 EPS of $0.14 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $2.5B (-32.9%) vs. $2.4B. Sees FQ3 EPS of $0.01-$0.06, revenue of $2.35B-$2.45B. (PR)
• United Microelectronics (UMC): Q1 EPS of -$0.09 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $319M (-59.6%) vs. $337.5M. (PR)
• ViroPharma (VPHM): Q1 EPS of -$0.77 misses by $0.93. Revenue of $60M (+18.2%) vs. $65M. (PR)
• Waste Management (WMI): Q1 EPS of $0.42 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.8B (-14.1%) vs. $3.0B. (PR)
• Wyeth (WYE): Q1 EPS of $0.89 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $5.4B (-5.8%) vs. $5.5B. Reaffirms FY '09 guidance, sees EPS of $3.33-$3.53 vs. $3.50 consensus. (PR)
• Wyndham Worldwide (WYN): Q1 EPS of $0.41 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $901M (-11%) vs. $839M. Reaffirms FY '09 EPS guidance of $1.61-$1.85, FY '09 revenue of $3.5-$3.9B. (PR)

Earnings: Tuesday After Close

• Ace Ltd. (ACE): Q1 EPS of $1.99 beats by $0.03. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD): Q1 EPS of $0.47 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $131.6M (+35.3%) vs. $129.1M. Shares -11.1% AH. (PR)
• Cabot Oil & Gas (COG): Q1 EPS of $0.41 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $234M (+6.5%) vs. $213M. Shares +4% AH. (PR)
• Carter's (CRI): Q1 EPS of $0.19 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $357M (+33.6%) vs. $335M. Sees Q2 EPS of $0.07-0.10 vs. $0.10. Shares -5.3% AH. (PR)
• Cemex (CX): Q1 operating income of $36M (-29%). Revenue of $3.7B (-32%) vs. $4.03B consensus. (PR)Dreamworks Animation SKG (DWA): Q1 EPS of $0.68 beats by $0.23. Revenue of $263.5M (+67.6%) vs. $211.5M. Shares +14.6% AH. (PR)
• Cerner (CERN): Q1 EPS of $0.52 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $392M (+1.9%) vs. $418M. Full-year guidance in-line. Shares -3.5% AH. (PR)
• Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI): Q1 EPS of $0.51 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $1.3B (-10%) vs. $1.25B. Shares +17.9% AH. (PR)
• CommScope (CTV): Q1 EPS of $0.14 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $742M (-26.1%) vs. $753M. Q2 revenue guidance in-line. Shares +3.8% AH. (PR)
• E*TRADE Financial (ETFC): Q1 EPS of -$0.41 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $497M (+6%) in-line. Allowance for loan losses increased $120M to $1.2B. Says it will need to further boost its capital position, through selling shares and/or a private cash injection. Shares -27.6% AH. (PR)
• Hertz Global (HTZ): Q1 EPS of -$0.25 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $1.56B (-23.3%) vs. $1.8B. (PR)
• Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL): Q1 EPS of -$0.47 misses by $0.40. Revenue of $494M (-12.4%) vs. $541M. Decreases semi-annual dividend to $0.10 from $0.25. Assets under management fell 11% to $41B. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• Life Technologies (LIFE): Q1 EPS of $0.72 beats by $0.15. Revenue of $785M (+124.1%) vs. $749M. Shares -0.7% AH. (PR)
• Massey Energy Company (MEE): Q1 EPS of $0.51 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $768M (+19.2%) vs. $739M. Says it has taken meaningful action to cut costs, and expects positive cash flow this year. Shares +0.6% AH. (PR)
• Nalco (NLC): Q1 EPS of $0.17 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $868M (-13.1%) vs. $933M. "We are pushing aggressively on productivity to help offset the impacts of weaker end markets." Shares flat AH. (PR)
• Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS): Q1 EPS of $0.50 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $450M (+6.3%) in-line. Sees full-year EPS of $2.24-2.32 vs. $2.21. Shares +8.5% AH. (PR)
• RF Micro Devices (RFMD): FQ4 EPS of -$0.10 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $172.3M (-21.9%) vs. $166.1M. Sees FQ1 EPS of flat vs. consensus of -$0.02. Shares -4.15% AH. (PR)
• Stericycle (SRCL): Q1 EPS of $0.47 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $277M (+8.8%) in-line. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• Sun Microsystems (JAVA): FQ3 EPS of -$0.07 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $2.61B (-20%) vs. $2.86B. Shares -0.2% AH (company is being acquired by Oracle (ORCL)). (PR)
• Superior Energy Services (SPN): Q1 EPS of $0.72 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $437M (-1%) vs. $418M. Shares +1.7% AH. (PR)
• Textron (TXT): Q1 EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.25. Revenue of $2.53B (-23.6%) vs. $2.78B. Sees full-year EPS of $0.45-0.75 vs. $0.97 consensus, and revenue of $11B vs. $11.8B. Launches sale of 19M shares, and $300M in convertible senior notes. Shares -5% premarket. (PR I, II)
• Total System Services (TSS): Q1 EPS of $0.26 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $409M (-2.6%) vs. $474M. Sees full-year revenue of $1.63-1.66B vs. $1.95B consensus. Sees net income down 11-13% vs. a previous 0-3%. Cardholder transaction volume was down 4.3%. Shares -8.3% AH. (PR)
• Trimble Navigation (TRMB): Q1 EPS of $0.28 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $289M (-18.7%) vs. $297M. Sees Q2 EOS of $0.32 vs. $0.35 and revenue of $285-315M vs. $320M. Shares -3.6% AH. (PR)
• Trustmark (TRMK): Q1 EPS of $0.41 beats by $0.12. (PR)
• V.F. Corp. (VFC): Q1 EPS of $0.91 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $1.72B in-line. Sees full-year EPS of $4.70-5.00 vs. consensus of $5.31. Shares -8.2% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

Overseas markets were broadly higher Wednesday, fueling gains in overnight futures trading.

Juniper Networks, Inc. (JNPR) – Providers of high-performance network infrastructure, Juniper Networks has experienced a 12% share price rally to $17.50 as well as a ‘buy’ rating by an analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co. today. JNPR has reported that it sees first-quarter profits of 16 to 17 cents per share, which is in accord with analysts’ expectations. Option investors took the good news with a grain of salt and were seen initiating a mixture of bullish and bearish plays. At the April 16 strike price some 7,000 puts were sold for 15 cents apiece, indicating that some traders are hoping shares will remain above the breakeven point at $15.85 by expiration. The April 17 strike attracted both put buyers and sellers and had some 13,000 puts trade hands for an average price of 51 cents each. Juniper bulls looked to the April 18 strike price to buy about 2,000 calls for 35 cents. Further along, in the May contract, about 8,200 calls were shed at the May 18 strike price for a premium of 97 cents each. Perhaps some investors believe today’s rally is doomed to be short-lived, while some early bulls may have already cashed in their chips. Finally, in keeping with the theme of contrasting trades, the May 17 strike saw the sale of 5,300 puts for a premium of 1.20 each while the May 16 strike had 3,300 puts purchased for 84 cents per contract. Option implied volatility has fallen from 64% yesterday to the current reading at 58%.

With the dramatic market declines over the last 18 months, most dividend stocks appear to be fairly priced on a historic basis. However, when you consider the record number of dividend cuts and near-term prospects, many of the lower valuations are justified. So how do you sort through the massive Dividend Stock list to find the companies worthy of consideration?

The New York Times’ “Conflicting Signals About the Chinese Economy” reports that Chinese exports fell 25.7% last month, yet China is still trying to stimulate its industrial economy. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is about to embark on a $1T program to expand consumer credit. American consumers are balking at both, while defiantly increasing their savings rate to a near term record 5%.

The coordinated world economic plan appears to be focused at the American consumer pulling all nations out of a near depression. But fundamental changes will prevent this from happening. First, as reported by The Wall Street Journal’s “Lean Factories Find It Hard to Cut Jobs Even in a Slump”, American factories are running so efficiently that foreign low cost labor is becoming far less relevant than factories being close to their customers.

Q1 2009 Earnings Call

February 2, 2009 8:30 am ET

Diversification will not be enough to shield major industrial conglomerates from the global recession.

In a new report, Conglomerates 2009 Outlook: Pick Your Spot, CreditSights notes that despite the intrinsic value of diversity to business risk profiles, the peer group of companies is starting to feel the impact of this global slowdown. “Companies with a less cyclically diversified business portfolio, material financial services operations, or significant exposure to consumer spending are likely to face pressure on credit fundamentals and ratings downgrades in this down-cycle.”