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Tuesday, Jan 156:39 PMS&P 500 tech companies are expected to report a 1.1% Y/Y drop in Q4 earnings, their first decline since Q3 '09, per Thomson Reuters. A chip industry downturn, weak PC and home electronics sales, and (important given the company's size) Apple's expected EPS decline are all playing a role. Nonetheless, low valuations for many tech names have attracted bargain hunters; Merrill believes tech stocks are collectively undervalued by 32% on a forward P/E basis, and claims every tech industry outside of IT services is trading at a historical discount. |Tuesday, Jan 156:39 PM| 3 Comments
Monday, Jan 149:24 AM"Within tech, we think that prospects of a potential bottoming in consensus estimates are improving ... relative safe haven stocks could be used as a source of funds," writes JPMorgan's Mark Moskowitz, explaining why he's downgrading EMC (EMC -1%) and IBM (IBM -1%) while upgrading H-P (HPQ +1.6%) and Fusion-io (FIO +6.1%). Apple and NetApp are his top large-cap picks, and Fusion-io, which he argues continues to "hold the pole position in server-side data acceleration," is his top small/mid-cap pick. EMC has already seen a raft of negative sell-side notes. |Monday, Jan 149:24 AM| Comment!
Monday, Dec 172012, 2:40 PMThe tech sector is "trading at a discount to the market for the first time in 20 years," notes Merrill, which advises going overweight on tech stocks (along with energy and industrial names). Barclays portfolio strategist Barry Knapp also sees tech doing well in 2013. More cautious is JPMorgan's Mark Moskowitz, who forecasts 2013 IT spending growth of just 1.7% amidst weak demand for PCs (mobile cannibalization) and servers (the sales lift provided by virtualization is slowing down) (Marc Andreessen) |Monday, Dec 172012, 2:40 PM| Comment!
Wednesday, Dec 122012, 9:34 AM"If (tech's) a bubble, it's the weirdest bubble I've seen," says Marc Andreessen, speaking at a conference. The current situation is more like a tech depression, he argues, noting tech stocks are trading at the sort of discount to industrials that hasn't been seen since the 1970s. "The public market is trading tech like a steel mill that's about to go bankrupt ... What is going on?" |Wednesday, Dec 122012, 9:34 AM| 5 Comments
Tuesday, Nov 202012, 9:46 AMDivergence in tech land: BAML's weekly check (h/t Raj Dhaliwal) of net buys of technology stocks by client shows the heaviest-ever buying by institutions against nearly the largest-ever selling by private clients. So funds were buying Apple last week as individuals were selling? |Tuesday, Nov 202012, 9:46 AM| 3 Comments
Friday, Oct 192012, 3:26 PMTake comfort or get worried, but the tech correction - the XLK is off about 7% since hitting an 11-year high a month ago - is catching the eye of the technicians and trend-followers. Tomi Kilgore says the index is only a hair above its 200-day moving average. Never one to miss a move, Dennis Gartman always pays attention when market leaders "suddenly lose their stripes." |Friday, Oct 192012, 3:26 PM| Comment!
Wednesday, Oct 102012, 9:16 AMCorporate insiders get even more bearish, the Vickers sales-to-buys ratio rising to 5.61:1 from 3.8:1 at the start of September. The deterioration comes from Nasdaq issues, where the ratio jumped to 6.17:1 from 2.96:1. Perspective: The long-term average is 2-2.5:1. One year ago, with stocks gasping for air, insiders weren't sellers - the ratio dropped to 1.04:1. |Wednesday, Oct 102012, 9:16 AM| 6 Comments
Wednesday, Oct 32012, 7:20 AMNegative earnings preannouncements (4 of them for every 1 positive release) are running at such a high rate as to bring back memories of the 2000-01 tech bust to Strategas Research. The market is stuck between easy money and lousy fundamentals, says Weiss' Mike Larson. |Wednesday, Oct 32012, 7:20 AM| 6 Comments
Saturday, Aug 252012, 10:00 AMSouthern Co. (SO) and Verizon (VZ) may be the "poster children" among high dividend-payers as the quest for yield takes the utility (XLU), telecom (IXP), and consumer staples (XLP) sectors to frothy levels. The flip-side are health-care services (XHS), autos (CARZ), housing (IYR), and tech (XLK) - lower payers, but with relative valuations that have rarely been this cheap. |Saturday, Aug 252012, 10:00 AM| 17 Comments
Sunday, Mar 202011, 5:03 AMCisco's Friday announcement adds another large cap tech stock to the list of dividend payers, with INTC yielding 3.6%, MSFT 2.6%, IBM 1.7%, CSCO 1.4%, HPQ 1.2% and ORCL 0.7%. But do rising dividends suggest that tech companies see fewer prospects for profitable investment in growth? |Sunday, Mar 202011, 5:03 AM| 16 Comments
Thursday, Nov 182010, 4:32 PMCiti technology guru Tobias Levkovich questions whether tech stocks - now the darling of both buy-side investors and sell-side analysts - can continue to outperform. Investors usually "talk their book," he writes, which suggests the sector is broadly owned, and needs fresh buyers. |Thursday, Nov 182010, 4:32 PM| Comment!
Sunday, Sep 52010, 1:15 PMFoxconn Chairman Terry Gou cuts the company's long-term sales growth target to 15% from its longstanding 30%, asking how many $60B companies with nearly 1M employees still set growth targets that high. Foxconn, which manufactures products for Apple (AAPL), Dell (DELL) and Nokia (NOK) among others, faces more than just success of size; Apple's growth hasn't offset slowing PC sales, and a spate of suicides forced the company to raise wages. |Sunday, Sep 52010, 1:15 PM| 3 Comments