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Thursday, January 24, 8:53 AM "(Commercial property) values are increasing but they're not running away," says Starwood (STWD) CEO Barry Sternlicht in an interview about the LNR purchase. He notes money is beginning to move out of fixed income into real property. This isn't news for major city centers, but Sternlicht says it's beginning to spill into "secondary cities." Comment! [Financials, U.S. Economy]
Friday, January 18, 10:59 AM More good news for housing: Household formation growth is back. After averaging more than 1M/year prior to the property bust, formations dropped to about 500K/year between 2008-10. The number bounced to 1.1M in 2011 and looks to have risen further last year. The gains are particularly felt in the rental market, and builders are obliging with a big jump in multi-family starts. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, November 30, 2012, 4:08 PM Norway's sovereign wealth fund is jumping into U.S. real estate, planning to invest about $11B of its $660B in "conservative" investments such as office complexes in major cities. The fund - just stocks and bonds at the moment - wants to have 5% of its assets in property. "The U.S. is the next real estate market to invest in," says fund management chief Yngve Slyngstad. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy, Global & FX]
Monday, November 26, 2012, 3:38 PM Focus on D.C. is preventing many from seeing the potential for housing - and by relation, employment - to deliver a big upside surprise in 2013, writes Jim Leaviss. If past patterns hold, the recent sharp decline in inventory should presage strong growth next year. Rising house prices removes a key psychological block from buyers - most prefer to buy into a clearly rising market. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Friday, November 16, 2012, 3:29 PM Developed real estate ex-U.S. (WPS) holds its ground over the last 2 months as domestic property (IYR) falls more than 7%. YTD, WPS is up 25.4% vs. an 8.7% gain for IYR. Another international fund, VNQI - holding many of the same stocks, but less top-heavy - has posted an even greater return, +28.1%. 3 Comments [Global & FX]
Thursday, November 15, 2012, 11:00 AM The seasonally-adjusted delinquency rate for 1-4 family homes fell18 bps to 7.40% in Q3, according to the MBA. The rate fell 59 bps on a Y/Y basis. The percentage of loans in some sort of delinquency fell to 11.71% from 12.63% a year ago. "A significant drop in the shadow inventory of distressed loans (is) a real positive for the housing market." (see Blackstone - buying up everything it sees). 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Friday, October 19, 2012, 12:29 PM Developed real estate ex- U.S. (WPS) continues to add to its sizable lead over domestic property (IYR, VNQ), with all of the outperformance coming since late July. The fund's largest holdings are concentrated in Asia - Japan, Hong Kong - with a bit of Australia and Europe thrown in. 1 Comment
Wednesday, October 17, 2012, 8:39 AM More on September Housing Starts: Both starts and permits post their best numbers since the summer of 2008. August's gains are revised higher to +4.1% from +2.3%. As hoped, it appears housing starts are catching up to large previous gains in builder confidence. (see also) Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Friday, September 14, 2012, 3:09 PM Trailing U.S. real estate (IYR, VNQ) badly for much of the last month, the past few sessions have been especially good for developed real estate ex-U.S (WPS). On a YTD basis, WPS continues to outperform domestic property by about 600 basis points. Comment!
Saturday, August 25, 2012, 10:00 AM Southern Co. (SO) and Verizon (VZ) may be the "poster children" among high dividend-payers as the quest for yield takes the utility (XLU), telecom (IXP), and consumer staples (XLP) sectors to frothy levels. The flip-side are health-care services (XHS), autos (CARZ), housing (IYR), and tech (XLK) - lower payers, but with relative valuations that have rarely been this cheap. 17 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, August 8, 2012, 3:15 PM The 4.8% Q2 gain in Freddie Mac's House Price Index was the strongest print in 8 years, says Chief Economist Frank Nothaft. He casts doubt on the claim of a massive "shadow inventory" set to be unleashed on the market, noting sharp declines in both excess-for-rent and excess-for-sale inventory. Also, national figures are obscuring true tightness in many local markets. 7 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, July 5, 2012, 1:16 PM Price matters. Real estate funds have trumped all other categories of stock fund over the last 3 years, not because the underlying assets have great fundamentals, but because the class "was priced for bankruptcy" in 2009. Now the fundamentals are turning. Some favorites: VNQ, SPG, AVB, FNIO, ICF, IFGL. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, July 3, 2012, 9:42 AM Blackstone (BX) gets into the residential landlord business, buying up $250M worth of foreclosed single-family homes with the intention of renting them out, according to sources. The firm joins what can now be called a mad rush of deep-pocketed investors trying to take single-family rentals out of the mom-and-pop category and into a major asset class. 24 Comments [Financials]
Friday, June 29, 2012, 3:21 PM Real estate ex-U.S. outperformed U.S. real estate this month, WPS +4.9% (45 minutes before the close) vs. IYR and VNQ, each up about 2.5%. Over the last year though, it's not close, with U.S. real estate outperforming ex-U.S. by 1500 basis points or more (depending on the ETF), the divergence beginning last last fall. Comment!
Wednesday, June 13, 2012, 1:19 PM Even with meaty yields, the dividend payout ratios for REITs remain very low, and thus very safe, says Fidelity's Sam Wald. Current low levels of supply mean economic growth does not have to be great for these companies to grow nicely, he adds. 1 Comment [Financials]
Thursday, April 12, 2012, 5:54 AM New foreclosures fell 16% in March from a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac, reaching the the lowest quarterly total since 2007. RealtyTrac expects foreclosure activity to remain elevated, though "the faster we can move some of these old foreclosures through the pipeline, the faster the market can be in a place to recover." Comment! [U.S. Economy]

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IQ U.S. Real Estate Small Cap ETF