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Guggenheim S&P Equal Weight ETF

6/19/2013, 7:22 PM ET

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Monday, February 25, 1:06 PM The S&P 500 (SPY) has gone 505 days without a 10% correction, writes Steven Russolollo. It's just the 6th time this has happened since 1962, according to Birinyi Associates, and in each of the other 5 instances, the S&P averaged a 9.2% gain over the next 6 months, and 13% over the ensuing year. 4 Comments
Friday, February 8, 10:11 AM Soaring optimism from investment newsletter writers means losses ahead for stocks, writes Jason Goepfert. Going back to 2000, there have been 9 other times when sentiment rose to these levels, he says, and in each of those cases the S&P was lower a month later, with the median loss 3.1%. In 8 out of 9 cases, the S&P was lower 6 months later, with the median loss 4.25%. 3 Comments
Monday, January 28, 7:27 AM "The bears are gone, extinct, vanished," writes John Hussman, with the only ones remaining being permabears or nutcases. "And yet, the historical evidence for major defensiveness has rarely been stronger." Capitulation is everywhere, he says, with even Alan Abelson telling investors to let profits run until stocks start to go the other way. 6 Comments
Thursday, January 24, 11:08 AM The lure of equal-weight funds - which tweak popular indexes by shifting money from the highest cap stocks to smaller firms - is felt on days like today. With the QQQ -0.7%, the QQEW +0.9%, the QQQE flat. YTD, the equal-weighted tech funds are outperforming the QQQs by 360-460 bps. SPY +0.4% vs. RSP +0.7% today. 2 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, January 23, 6:58 AM Nearly 80% of the individual stocks in the S&P 500 are overbought, according to Bespoke. Looking at a 5-year chart, the group notes this indicator is as mean-reverting as it gets. High levels of overbought stocks tend to move to low levels rather quickly. 4 Comments
Tuesday, January 22, 11:27 AM "It's as good as it gets in the U.S.," a wildly bullish David Tepper tells Bloomberg. "This country is on the verge of an explosion of greatness." Be long the "risk things," he says, and avoid Treasurys, the Swiss franc, and the yen. He's as blunt as ever: "I'd rather work at McDonald's than the sell side." 30 Comments [Breaking News]
Friday, January 11, 1:30 PM More on equity fund inflows: Extreme moves such as what's been seen early in 2013 are somewhat rare (graph) and often a good contrarian indicator for what the market might do over the following 3 months. The evidence, however, remains mixed, says Nomura's Mark Diver, as other indicators he follows are not flashing such bearish signals. 9 Comments
Thursday, January 10, 2:47 PM The rally in the S&P should peak close to 1500 (2% above its current level), says Tom DeMark, calling for at least a 5.5% correction from that point. The well-followed technician has or has had the ear of some of the hedge fund world's biggest guns. He's currently basking in his Dec. 4 bottom call on China, since which the Shanghai Composite has risen 16%. 6 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, January 9, 11:29 AM "Wake up Mr. Risk at 1328," writes State Street's "Mr. Risk" Fred Goodwin, calling 2013 "the year to be long volatility." Last year at this time, investors were focused on risks and assets were priced to match. Not now though, he says, expecting too much fiscal tightening in the U.S. and a re-emergence of the EU debt crisis. 3 Comments
Tuesday, December 18, 2012, 12:51 PM More on the BAML fund manager survey: The tailwind of low equity exposure is over, with hedge funds taking their long stock bets to the highest level since August 2006. More: Just 12% of fund managers are overweight cash, the lowest level in 9 months. A net 11% see improving corporate profits next year, a 22 point swing from October, when 11% saw declines ahead. (PR) 4 Comments [U.S. Economy, Global & FX]
Monday, December 17, 2012, 10:55 AM More from Tepper: Pure trader, Tepper (video clips here) keeps things simple - we have an okay economy and the Fed promising to print $1T/year for at least the next 2 years. What else do you need? Unnoticed by much of the media (not here) is another central bank put - Mario Draghi has a rate cut already pocketed and ready to use when needed. "We could have Prince" (party like 1999). 3 Comments [Quick Ideas, Global & FX, U.S. Economy]
Monday, December 17, 2012, 8:36 AM David Tepper - who famously called the big post-QE2 bull market - is back on CNBC and very bullish again. The market has just a small bit of downside risk from these levels, he says, but a return to market multiples not seen since the 90s is the upside. All that's needed for ignition is a deal out of D.C. 12 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Friday, December 14, 2012, 8:24 AM A stock market top may be near, says Mark Hulbert, taking some Ned Davis research and probably running a bit too far with it. Data show Financials and Utilities typically lag the S&P in the months leading to a top, while Discretionary and Staples outperform. In the last 3 months, 3 out of 4 of these conditions have been met. The data is barely conclusive when 4 out of 4 match. Three out of 4? Comment! [Quick Ideas]
Thursday, December 13, 2012, 9:08 AM The envelope please ... The winner of the ETP of the year is Invesco's PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV). The trend-setting product has generated a good deal of alpha - total return of 18.3% since May 2011 inception vs. S&P of 9.9% - by holding the lowest volatility stocks. It now has more than $3B in AUM. 1 Comment [Quick Ideas]
Tuesday, December 4, 2012, 10:52 AM The disconnect between analyst sentiment (bearish) and the direction of stocks continues to grow, notes Ryan Detrick, hoping to combination represents a contrarian buy signal. 6 Comments
Tuesday, December 4, 2012, 8:16 AM Based simply on recent PMI levels, Western stock markets are 15-35% overvalued, says Deutsche Bank, which believes the Fed's QE∞ and the ECB's OMT have allowed equities a 6-month grace period. If early 2013 economic prints don't start to improve, look for stock markets to give up and adjust downward. 6 Comments [Global & FX, U.S. Economy]