The Market Vectors®Retail ETF (RTH) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Market Vectors US Listed Retail 25 Index (MVRTHTR). The Index is a rules-based index intended to track the overall performance of 25 of the largest U.S. listed, publicly traded retail companies.
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There's plenty of economic data to mull over, but Treasurys are taking their cue from an unexpected decline in Consumer Confidence in November - this despite (or because of) the government returning to work and a stock market that won't quit. Those with good memories will remember the big drop in October was attributed to the government shutdown and chatter about default.
The Expectations Index also declined - to 69.3 from 72.2.
"With such uncertainty prevailing, this could be a challenging holiday season for retailers," says The Conference Board's Lynn Franco.
TLT +0.4%, TBT -0.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is off 3 bps to 2.70%.
The XLP, XRT, and XLY all give up gains and turn lower following Wal-Mart sounding the warning over the effects of the payroll tax hike. It's fascinating that it took markets until just now to react to what was crystal clear 6 weeks ago.
Retail analysts start to get a little edgy after an early round of reports on holiday sales (Aeropostale, Tiffany, Ascena Retail Group) show considerable weakness in consumer spending. It's still early in the reporting season, but the early tone flowing out from the sector doesn't bode well for retail-focused ETFs such as XRT, XLY, PMR, and RTH.
Holiday season warning for retail? The three heavyweight retailers to report November same-store sales all came in with disappointing marks. While Macy's and Target actually saw sales slip during the month, Gap showed a positive reading below expectations. The quick buzz from analysts is that a deeper trend than just a bump in the road from Hurricane Sandy could be in play. GPS -2.4%, TGT -2.9%, M -2.8%.
Retail shares fall just days before Black Friday, as weak consumer spending data puts the kabosh on optimism for a holiday spending spree: Nordstrom (JWN -1.9%), Target (TGT -1.9%), Best Buy (BBY -1.8%) and Macy's (M -2.4%).
Genesco (GCO +8.7%) holds on to gains after reporting the $240M acquisition of U.K.-based Schuh Group - a specialty retailer of casual and athletic footwear. The purchase gives Genesco an immediate presence in Europe, as well as a boost to FY11 earnings.
Tuesday Morning (TUES -14%) slides after lowering its FY outlook for the second time this year due disappointing sales. CEO Kathleen Mason blames the usual suspects: inflation, the weak housing market, and a pullback in discretionary spending.
Polo Ralph Lauren (RL -9.2%) sinks to the bottom of the S&P after reporting its disappointing quarter and big jump in inventories, raising concerns about future markdowns. Costco (COST -1.1%) is lower after taking a $49M accounting charge related to rising prices. Retailers and apparel companies (RTH -0.3%) perk up but continue to lag.