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Friday, April 12, 11:38 AM "We capitulate on our 'correction call,'" says JPMorgan's Tom Lee, bullish again after a brief foray into the bearish camp. Lee says the economy is stronger than he anticipated and even weak data (see retail sales earlier) is being "looked through." 10 Comments
Monday, April 1, 8:36 AM S&P 500 (SPY) records now and then: Corporate profits are 13% higher today than October 2007, says BAML's Savita Subramanian, concluding stocks are "still playing catch up to fundamentals." Additionally, the index's dividend yield is 30% higher now and the P/E ratio is well-below levels of 2007 and 2000. "Waiting for a better entry point can be dangerous," she advises. 6 Comments
Tuesday, March 26, 10:50 PM Sentiment indicators tend to work best at bottoms, writes The Fat Pitch, but it doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to what's become a bit of froth in the bull camp. Low cash levels, rising margin debt, prominent bears capitulating, and the return of the Dow 36K crew have been well-documented. One you might not have heard of is the Canadian equivalent of Time screaming "BUY!" on its cover. 3 Comments
Thursday, March 21, 10:48 AM Jefferies' David Zervos has been as apocalyptic as they come (I, II) with regards to Cyprus, and his latest note says the country's eurozone exit (now openly talked about at the EU's highest levels) could be a Lehman-style systemic event. He sees about a 20% chance of such next week. "The risk/reward for chips on the table stinks; that's why I'm on the sidelines." 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Tuesday, March 12, 9:48 AM The trailing P/E ratio on the S&P 500 (SPY) has creeped up to 15.25 from just above 13 late last spring, writes Bespoke. There's nothing unusual about rising valuations during rallies, they say, but keep it on your radar. Contributing most of late to rising multiples have been Staples (XLP) and Discretionary (XLY), but dividend favorites Telecoms (XTL) and Utilities (XLU) continue to trade at nosebleed (for them) valuations. 3 Comments
Sunday, March 3, 9:13 PM Declining breadth - defined by the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average - is flashing a warning, writes The Fat Pitch. In late January, both the index and the breadth measure were rising, but the S&P since has made new highs while breadth has dropped off. This sort of divergence doesn't last for long and tends to be resolved by a 5-10% decline in stocks. 6 Comments
Thursday, February 28, 4:28 PM Despite today's closing hiccup, the S&P 500 is up in January and February this year. This has occurred 26 times since 1945, notes Bob Pisani, and each time the S&P finished green for the year, with an average gain of 24%. 15 Comments
Monday, February 25, 1:06 PM The S&P 500 (SPY) has gone 505 days without a 10% correction, writes Steven Russolollo. It's just the 6th time this has happened since 1962, according to Birinyi Associates, and in each of the other 5 instances, the S&P averaged a 9.2% gain over the next 6 months, and 13% over the ensuing year. 4 Comments
Friday, February 8, 10:11 AM Soaring optimism from investment newsletter writers means losses ahead for stocks, writes Jason Goepfert. Going back to 2000, there have been 9 other times when sentiment rose to these levels, he says, and in each of those cases the S&P was lower a month later, with the median loss 3.1%. In 8 out of 9 cases, the S&P was lower 6 months later, with the median loss 4.25%. 3 Comments
Monday, January 28, 7:27 AM "The bears are gone, extinct, vanished," writes John Hussman, with the only ones remaining being permabears or nutcases. "And yet, the historical evidence for major defensiveness has rarely been stronger." Capitulation is everywhere, he says, with even Alan Abelson telling investors to let profits run until stocks start to go the other way. 6 Comments
Wednesday, January 23, 6:58 AM Nearly 80% of the individual stocks in the S&P 500 are overbought, according to Bespoke. Looking at a 5-year chart, the group notes this indicator is as mean-reverting as it gets. High levels of overbought stocks tend to move to low levels rather quickly. 4 Comments
Tuesday, January 22, 11:27 AM "It's as good as it gets in the U.S.," a wildly bullish David Tepper tells Bloomberg. "This country is on the verge of an explosion of greatness." Be long the "risk things," he says, and avoid Treasurys, the Swiss franc, and the yen. He's as blunt as ever: "I'd rather work at McDonald's than the sell side." 30 Comments [Breaking News]
Friday, January 11, 1:30 PM More on equity fund inflows: Extreme moves such as what's been seen early in 2013 are somewhat rare (graph) and often a good contrarian indicator for what the market might do over the following 3 months. The evidence, however, remains mixed, says Nomura's Mark Diver, as other indicators he follows are not flashing such bearish signals. 9 Comments
Thursday, January 10, 2:47 PM The rally in the S&P should peak close to 1500 (2% above its current level), says Tom DeMark, calling for at least a 5.5% correction from that point. The well-followed technician has or has had the ear of some of the hedge fund world's biggest guns. He's currently basking in his Dec. 4 bottom call on China, since which the Shanghai Composite has risen 16%. 6 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, January 9, 11:29 AM "Wake up Mr. Risk at 1328," writes State Street's "Mr. Risk" Fred Goodwin, calling 2013 "the year to be long volatility." Last year at this time, investors were focused on risks and assets were priced to match. Not now though, he says, expecting too much fiscal tightening in the U.S. and a re-emergence of the EU debt crisis. 3 Comments
Thursday, December 27, 2012, 2:01 PM Stock buybacks from S&P 500 firms fell 15.1% Q/Q and 25.8% Y/Y in Q3 to $93.4B, per FactSet, a sign the repurchasing binge launched by cash-rich and investment-averse U.S. companies may be cooling down. Nonetheless, buybacks for the trailing 12 months amounted to 65.3% of free cash flow. For the consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors, the figures were a stunning 106.8% and 116.3%. Total shares outstanding for the S&P reached their lowest point since Q4 '08. (previous) Comment! [U.S. Economy]

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