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Wednesday, January 9, 11:29 AM "Wake up Mr. Risk at 1328," writes State Street's "Mr. Risk" Fred Goodwin, calling 2013 "the year to be long volatility." Last year at this time, investors were focused on risks and assets were priced to match. Not now though, he says, expecting too much fiscal tightening in the U.S. and a re-emergence of the EU debt crisis. 3 Comments
Thursday, December 27, 2012, 2:01 PM Stock buybacks from S&P 500 firms fell 15.1% Q/Q and 25.8% Y/Y in Q3 to $93.4B, per FactSet, a sign the repurchasing binge launched by cash-rich and investment-averse U.S. companies may be cooling down. Nonetheless, buybacks for the trailing 12 months amounted to 65.3% of free cash flow. For the consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors, the figures were a stunning 106.8% and 116.3%. Total shares outstanding for the S&P reached their lowest point since Q4 '08. (previous) Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, December 18, 2012, 12:51 PM More on the BAML fund manager survey: The tailwind of low equity exposure is over, with hedge funds taking their long stock bets to the highest level since August 2006. More: Just 12% of fund managers are overweight cash, the lowest level in 9 months. A net 11% see improving corporate profits next year, a 22 point swing from October, when 11% saw declines ahead. (PR) 4 Comments [U.S. Economy, Global & FX]
Monday, December 17, 2012, 10:55 AM More from Tepper: Pure trader, Tepper (video clips here) keeps things simple - we have an okay economy and the Fed promising to print $1T/year for at least the next 2 years. What else do you need? Unnoticed by much of the media (not here) is another central bank put - Mario Draghi has a rate cut already pocketed and ready to use when needed. "We could have Prince" (party like 1999). 3 Comments [Quick Ideas, Global & FX, U.S. Economy]
Monday, December 17, 2012, 8:36 AM David Tepper - who famously called the big post-QE2 bull market - is back on CNBC and very bullish again. The market has just a small bit of downside risk from these levels, he says, but a return to market multiples not seen since the 90s is the upside. All that's needed for ignition is a deal out of D.C. 12 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Friday, December 14, 2012, 8:24 AM A stock market top may be near, says Mark Hulbert, taking some Ned Davis research and probably running a bit too far with it. Data show Financials and Utilities typically lag the S&P in the months leading to a top, while Discretionary and Staples outperform. In the last 3 months, 3 out of 4 of these conditions have been met. The data is barely conclusive when 4 out of 4 match. Three out of 4? Comment! [Quick Ideas]
Thursday, December 13, 2012, 9:08 AM The envelope please ... The winner of the ETP of the year is Invesco's PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV). The trend-setting product has generated a good deal of alpha - total return of 18.3% since May 2011 inception vs. S&P of 9.9% - by holding the lowest volatility stocks. It now has more than $3B in AUM. 1 Comment [Quick Ideas]
Tuesday, December 4, 2012, 10:52 AM The disconnect between analyst sentiment (bearish) and the direction of stocks continues to grow, notes Ryan Detrick, hoping to combination represents a contrarian buy signal. 6 Comments
Tuesday, December 4, 2012, 8:16 AM Based simply on recent PMI levels, Western stock markets are 15-35% overvalued, says Deutsche Bank, which believes the Fed's QE∞ and the ECB's OMT have allowed equities a 6-month grace period. If early 2013 economic prints don't start to improve, look for stock markets to give up and adjust downward. 6 Comments [Global & FX, U.S. Economy]
Monday, December 3, 2012, 7:29 AM Not surprising given the firm's 1575 target for the S&P 500 next year, Goldman's Global Strategy Team upgrades U.S. equities to Overweight for the next 3 months. Global growth is "a hump to get over, then a clear road ahead," is #1 among the Top 10 themes for 2013. 6 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Thursday, November 29, 2012, 8:09 AM Goldman Sachs details its 1575 price target on the S&P 500 in 2013: Expecting better growth than most, the firm likes cyclical over defensive sectors, and tech over staples, telecom, and health care. A "grand bargain" in D.C. along the lines of Simpson-Bowles "would spark a PE multiple expansion and a higher target." 3 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, November 28, 2012, 8:57 AM Consumer confidence tells us more about how the stock market has already performed than it does about the future," writes Mark Hulbert, reminding the gauge (yesterday's big print) has a great record as a lagging indicator. If anything, he says, strong readings tend to be correlated with negative stock performance going forward. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, November 27, 2012, 9:02 AM Analysts' 2013 S&P 500 earnings estimates slid to about $113 last week, but should stabilize around there until the January earnings season gets started, writes Ed Yardeni. At 1406, the S&P is now trading at about 12.5X 2013 estimated earnings. 1 Comment
Monday, November 26, 2012, 3:52 PM Stocks are not cheap, writes John Hussman, warning of the Street being "lulled into complacency" by record profit margins, and by comparison to the valuations during the late-90s bubble. Tossing both aside, he finds the S&P 40-70% above valuation norms, roughly the same level as reached at the beginning of the 1965 secular bear market. (see also) 3 Comments
Wednesday, November 21, 2012, 1:42 PM A bit of perspective on the mildness of the recent pullback, CJ Mendes provides a graph of the percentage of NYSE stocks 2 standard deviations below their 200-day moving average. It's at the high end of the range, but not at an extreme, nor anywhere close to the levels reached during last fall's great buying opportunity. 4 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, November 21, 2012, 9:03 AM The Vickers insider sell:buy ratio falls below 2:1 for just the 4th time since March 2009, writes Mark Hulbert, who notes it neared 7:1 at about the time of the market peak 2 months ago. The other 3 occasions, the ratio fell below 2:1, a significant bottom in the market was near. 3 Comments [Quick Ideas]

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