RWR Forum Topics
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- Asset Class Performance in 2008 [view article]
- Outlook for Select Sector ETFs [view article]
- Fixing Target Date Strategies: 'Target Date Folios' [view article]
- Homeowner Equity at Post WWII Low [view article]
- ETF Investing Guide: A Core ETF Portfolio [view article]
- Everything You Wanted To Know About This Week's Market (But Were Afraid To Look At Too Closely) [view article]
- Investing in Real Estate: REITs and Your Home [view article]
- New Cohen & Steers ETF Offers Screened Global Real Estate [view article]
- Exchange-Traded Funds and Closed-End Funds by Asset Class, Type and Provider [view article]
- Three's Company: SSgA Launches Third Global REIT ETF [view article]
- An All-Weather Portfolio Using Multiple Asset Classes [view article]
- The Market Domino Effect: Staying Ahead of the Curve [view article]
Recent RWR Articles
- Eight US Real Estate ETFs
- Asset Class Performance in 2008
- REIT ETFs: Beaten by a Dart-Throwing Monkey
- ETF Spreads ARE Important
- Homeowner Equity at Post WWII Low
- REITs Outperform Stocks, Direct Real Estate
- Everything You Wanted To Know About This Week's Market (But Were Afraid To Look At Too Closely)
- Three's Company: SSgA Launches Third Global REIT ETF
- New Cohen & Steers ETF Offers Screened Global Real Estate
- Commercial Real Estate Still in Fairly Good Shape
- Full List of Articles »
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Asset Class Performance in 2008 [view article]
Although Treasuries haven't lost anything in nominal terms, we're in a highly inflationary period. What is the rate of inflation? Somewhere between the official rate of 4 percent and and the Shadow Government Stats rate of maybe 16 percent. Treasuries aren't paying even the official rate of inflation, so with Treasuries, you're losing money.Oil is certainly good for the long run, but there may well be a consolidation. Gold is probably about to start another swing up--though no one can see the future that exactly. Reply
Considine
Outlook for Select Sector ETFs [view article]
Jonathan:As I say in the article--three years of trailing data is what I use. As far as getting rid of an under-performing sector, that will require study beyond QPP. The Financial sector is a great example. I have been very light on financials since well before the meltdown. I own some BAC, though, and it has gotten pounded. I am neither selling nor buying more. I invest for the long term and that is really what QPP is designed to help with. Over periods of less than a year, momentum tends to dominate--as I have discussed in some articles.
Personally, I do my homework up front and then I tend to get in for the long haul. I do not try to time my major investments in terms of selling out when they are down. When I am adding money, I will use data such as these to help provide ideas for sectors to look at.
The difference between under-valued and distressed is also apparent if you look at projected risk levels...
Geoff Reply
Sheinkop
Outlook for Select Sector ETFs [view article]
Geoff,Thank you for your uniquely academic approach. Can you be more specific in the length of the trailing time frames you use? As well, how often you look to make a change to a long term portfolio if a sector has just become a lead anchor? As you mention there is a difference between undervalued and distressed so when are you making your decision and acting upon it?
Thanks,
Jonathan Reply
Considine
Fixing Target Date Strategies: 'Target Date Folios' [view article]
FYI: Geoff is quoted on target date funds in U.S. News and World Report:www.usnews.com/article... Reply
Homeowner Equity at Post WWII Low [view article]
If you dig into the numbers ( at least the prior issuances of this data) you find that the % of owners with fully paid off mortgage or good LTV ratios hasn't changed that much. However the portion of people with high LTV (little to no equity; the new buyers of the past several years ) are much more levered. Hence, combined with value reducitons the average equity declinewe end up with two classes- the housed and comfortable, and the broke Reply
Homeowner Equity at Post WWII Low [view article]
That would make sense analyst, but that isn't what Americans have done. Instead, they went on a massive spending binge from all the available cheap credit under the auspices that their homes would keep going up. It was at best, naive.Houses, compared to wages, have been high priced for a while. Maybe this corrction will level that out a bit.
~X~
Reply
Warming
Examiner
Homeowner Equity at Post WWII Low [view article]
I am not surprised that home equity is lower with falling home prices. But that may not be the only reason. With interest rates below the inflation rate, the prospect of the dollar continuing to fall, and investments available in hard assets and/or foreign currencies; wouldn't it make sense to borrow against your home at a fixed rate with the plan on paying it off later with 'cheaper' dollars even if you could pay off the loan balance now. Replyprai aol.com
Homeowner Equity at Post WWII Low [view article]
Why hasn't this been posted every month/year? This is one of several things wrong with America and similar countries...My dad and mom paid off their home at the ages of 40 and 33 and dad was able to retire at 60.Thanks Mom & Dad. Reply
Jackson
ETF Investing Guide: A Core ETF Portfolio [view article]
mtwoman, first, to clarify -- the ETFs listed here are bond index funds, not actively managed bond funds.There are a few reasons why you might want to buy a bond index fund instead of buying individual bonds:
- owning lots of bonds spreads the risk
- you only have to buy a single ETF, instead of researching and buying many individual bonds
- you don't need to worry about buying new bonds when your current bonds mature
- the spreads on buying and selling individual bonds, particularly illiquid muni bonds, can be wide.
At the same time, there are disadvantages. You pay a management fee, whereas buying from Treasury Direct is free. And you have more control over maturity dates if you buy bonds directly.
Hope that helps.
David Reply
ETF Investing Guide: A Core ETF Portfolio [view article]
Could you explain why it would be beneficial to pay for an actively managed bond fund instead of holding individual bonds? ReplyETF Investing Guide: A Core ETF Portfolio [view article]
Can you explain why it would be beneficial to pay for managing a bond fund instead of holding individual bonds? ReplyEverything You Wanted To Know About This Week's Market (But Were Afraid To Look At Too Closely) [view article]
Well rounded commentary. Wish you could publish this weekly .. ;) ReplyEverything You Wanted To Know About This Week's Market (But Were Afraid To Look At Too Closely) [view article]
EXCELLENT article! ReplyEverything You Wanted To Know About This Week's Market (But Were Afraid To Look At Too Closely) [view article]
There seem to be other forces at work here.While I agree on much of what the author says,the institutions still cannot remain in cash for long regardless of what the economic trends tell them. This is a growing part of the investment community and it takes the bite out of speculators and individual investors ability to move markets based on sound fundamentals.Truth is,this market is probably 35% or more,overvalued ,if you use common sense ,instead of hyped thinking.I just can't find it in my heart to go long now. Reply
Everything You Wanted To Know About This Week's Market (But Were Afraid To Look At Too Closely) [view article]
Great article. I am glad to read that I am not the only person who believes that the US is entering a prolonged period of stagflation. The Fed governors say it will never happen along with the market pundits. They say that there is no inflation because housing prices are declining. They even claim that the US is experiencing deflation. LOL!! Accoring to the fake government numbers, gasoline prices actually declined in April even though April gasoline futures went from 3.26 to 3.49. The worst part is that the market seems to believe the government numbers. Reply