Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT)
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RWT Forum Topics
- All Comments on RWT
- General Discussion on RWT
- Redwood Trust: From $30 to $4 by Year-End? [view article]
- A Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
- Redwood Trust: Ravaged by Credit Losses [view article]
- The Long Case for Redwood Trust [view article]
- Muddled Mortgage REIT Book Value Creates Buying Opportunity [view article]
- Redwood Trust, Crystal River: Future mREIT Survivors [view article]
- Time to Rebalance, and I'm Moving Up in Cash [view article]
- 3 Sales and 4 New Buys: Redwood Trust, Gehl Corp., Shoe Carnival, Charlotte Russe [view article]
- Jim Cramer's Wall Street Confidential Picks, 7/31/07 [view article]
loading ...Recent RWT Articles
- A Short Update on My Four Short Ideas
- Redwood Trust: Ravaged by Credit Losses
- Redwood Trust: From $30 to $4 by Year-End?
- Muddled Mortgage REIT Book Value Creates Buying Opportunity
- Redwood Trust, Crystal River: Future mREIT Survivors
- Time to Rebalance, and I'm Moving Up in Cash
- The Long Case for Redwood Trust
- Why Buy Mortgage REITs Now?
- Redwood Shorts are Simply Short-Sighted
- 3 Sales and 4 New Buys: Redwood Trust, Gehl Corp., Shoe Carnival, Charlotte Russe
- Full List of Articles »
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Redwood Trust: From $30 to $4 by Year-End? [view article]
Greg, you are spot on. Although a pioneer for the psuedo-REIT but really a hedge fund structure, that business model is now dead. If they can't reinvent themselves quickly, they are toast. They have too many high paid senior staff that have run out of ideas. They would be better served by outsourcing their excellent loss mitigation staff, as they have always impressed me with their extensive knowledge. Unfortunately they weren't invovled enough when the assets were being aquired, and are now left holding the bag.Reply
A Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
Bogey: thanks for the update from NYMatt: Bear market rallies are to be expected.
As for the reason why, I am no good at explaining short term market movements, which is why all of my articles deal with fundimentals.
That said, FED is one of the most heavily shorted stocks on the market, so short squeezes can always happen. I think current prices are a great opportunity to short FED. Reply
A Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
Pj568 - I agree with you. I don't like Greg tossing around "default" without making clear that there are discrete steps to a default process with oppotunities to cure. ReplyA Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
Why all the psycho babble about covenants and default semantics.Bottom line, if you breech a covenant or miss a payment there is typically a cure period before a formal default can be declared. You can sometimes obtain waivers to certain events but if in breech outside of the cure period and in need of a waiver you're at the lenders mercy as to whether its granted or a formal default is declared that allows to proceed with their remedies available under the loan agreement. At this point the lender is attempting to maximize the amount of their recovery, whatever that direction is. Reply
Redwood Trust: Ravaged by Credit Losses [view article]
Not so sure about Acacia and Sequoia stabilizing. Redwood owns the equity tranches in those deals, which is first loss. That money is gone for good, whether it's held to maturity or not. The marks can reverse though, and you need to pick through and see what, if anything, is likely to turn around. But even FSA, in last quarter's brief glimmer of hope after the Bear Stearns debacle, reported that they may be able to reverse some of their marks because spreads had tightened, I wrote about it here: www.reitwrecks.com/200... ReplyA Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
Greg being in the commercial real estate biz here in NY, I have a good handle on the markets and must say your post on Maguire resonated tremendously. Seeing how the properties that Macklowe bought in the same package from Equity/Blackstone are being discounted roughly 25% in NY which has NOT been exposed to the vacancy and price drops like SoCal, there is NO WAY that Maguire can get out of this in my humble opinion. Cant sell, refinance or other. They are screwed, plain and simple. The only question I have is how long until they pay the piper?Reply
A Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
Greg,Like MBIA and ABK, the market seems to have decided for the moment that FED is going to survive after going up 4-fold in the past 6 weeks.
Can you give any further analysis on why the market might believe this, and why the market is wrong in that belief? Certainly your article on FED paints a devastating picture for the bank's future. I keep trying to borrow shares with my TDA account, no luck yet. . . Maybe on Monday if the squeeze goes on again.
Reply
A Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
Thanks Greg, I understand. I do appreciate all your great articles and I look foward to more. Take care and thanks again for all the research you've provided. ReplyA Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
Thank you Groty for the response. I typically give up responding to someone after more than one post that seems to show either gross or willful ignorance of a topic, or that asks me to do research for others. ReplyA Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
tquill: I am a lawyer, not a financial adviser, so I can't talk to you via e-mail about investments (unless you have a real estate investment issue or financial fraud case).Probably the best thing you can do to learn about options is open up a "practice account" using Yahoo or Google's "portfolio" option (other sites have this too) and see how you do.
Or perhaps open an options account with just a few thousand of real money. Reply
A Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
Greg, I've been researching as much as I can about options, but what call options do you think would be good to short sell with FED. My email is tquill33@yahoo.com if you wouldn't mind helping me a bit. Thanks. ReplyA Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
SR9:Go to the section (usually) labeled: "Events of Default" of any corporate loan agreement. They are often filed as exhibits to 8-Ks, 10-Qs, and 10-Ks.
Lots of things can trigger an Event of Default. Not making timely payments of interest and principal as agreed is certainly one, but there are many others. Reply
A Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
Tquill: If you've got the stomach for FED's volatility, yes I do think today's run-up presents a good time to short FED calls.Steve: My financial short calls have fallen a lot more than the average financial stock. You are wrong, my number is correct, and comes right from the mouth of the company:
"This loss includes $60 million (negative $1.84 per share) of net negative market valuation adjustments."
Reply
A Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
Greg FED went up today about 30%. Do you think it would be a good time to short calls and buy puts? ReplyA Short Update on My Four Short Ideas [view article]
The facts on RWT are just wrong. The writedown was 4 million not 60. However, right now you can throw a dart at any financial, short it and make money. Reply