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Tuesday, May 21, 8:49 AM Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways," is #4 of Bob Farrell's "Market Rules to Remember." Channeling that, BAML's Steve Suttmeier sees stocks continuing their run with risks of a topping-out not arriving unti late summer. He's most bullish on industrials (XLI) - particularly "oversold" EXPD, DE, CAT, FDX - and also thinks financials (XLF) will remain market leaders. 4 Comments
Friday, May 17, 5:56 AM UBS upgrades global financials to Overweight from Underweight on a healing global economy, rebuilt capital, and the sector's shift "from being a net issuer to a net distributor of cash." Furthermore, the U.S. banking sector (XLF) is taken to Overweight as balance sheet strength and attractive valuations play well with the housing market recovery to create compelling opportunities. European banks (EUFN) are lifted to Neutral "with a preference towards Nordic and U.K. banks." Financials respond in London with LLoyds Banking Group (LYG) +2.3%, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) +3.3%, and Barclays (BCS) up 0.5%. 5 Comments [Financials, Global & FX]
Wednesday, May 15, 7:54 AM "You're getting cost cuts as a means of sustaining performance and that's not a great sign," says analyst Simon Maughan. "What HSBC (HBC) is showing you (job cuts earlier) is that there is very little growth in the banking industry (XLF) for years to come." CEO Stuart Gulliver notes HSBC has met its savings target, but hasn't met a goal to reduce costs as a percentage of revenue because revenue hasn't grown. 1 Comment [Financials]
Wednesday, April 24, 3:58 PM Richard Pzena (PZN) - still heavily overweight financials (XLF) and mature tech (XLK) - makes his case for global banks in today's earnings call (transcript): With capital levels of 11-13% at JPM, C, and BCS double what they were pre-crisis, will regulators allow banks to earn a decent return on said capital? A definite "yes," says Pzena, seeing no reason demand for financial products won't continue to grow faster than GDP, and noting bank managers' "laser-like focus" on improving returns. An average price-to-book ratio of 0.7x combined with a modest ROE of 12-13% suggests fair value more than double current prices. Comment! [Financials, Tech, Quick Ideas]
Thursday, April 18, 7:37 AM Coming alongside a rise in lender earnings are calls for tougher regulation, including even more stringent capital requirements. Bank profits have thrived the past few years even with all the new rules, but maybe at the expense of economic growth. "The government aimed a Stinger missile at the banking industry and missed and hit the consumer as well," says Dick Bove. The XLF has about matched the S&P's 120% rise since the March 2009 bottom. 1 Comment [Financials]
Monday, April 15, 12:28 PM The Brown/Vitter bill being rolled out in Congress is essentially Armageddon to the TBTF banks, says Goldman, seeing it as mandating another $1.1T in equity for the banking system. Banks would need 12 years of earnings to build this amount organically, though the bill would give just 5 - say goodbye to lending. Break up the banks? BAC, C, JPM, and WFC all have multiple divisions with more than $400M in assets - the level at which the bill gets tough on lenders. 22 Comments [Financials]
Monday, April 15, 11:24 AM A 2.5% move up in Citigroup following earnings is allowing the banks (XLF) to tread water or even move higher in an otherwise bright red tape. Leading the S&P on the downside is the resources sector, XLE -2.9%, XLB -2.5%. S&P 500 (SPY) -0.7%. Comment! [Financials]
Friday, April 12, 12:09 PM "Expect more pronounced slowing" in mortgage banking and loan demand, says Sterne Agee's Todd Hagerman after this morning's earnings from Wells Fargo and JPMorgan. Mortgage banking income fell as expected, but both banks reported slowing application volumes as well, suggesting future cuts to earnings estimates. XLF -0.8%. 7 Comments [Financials]
Wednesday, April 10, 3:59 PM In comments with potential implications for the banking sector, CLSA analyst Mike Mayo says he sees a rebirth of shareholder rights in the sector with institutional investors taking control of their ownership stake. A "country club sort of attitude" has been prevalent for too long among bank boards, with directors getting fired one out of 3,000 times, Mayo says. (video) Comment! [Financials]
Tuesday, April 9, 6:43 PM A Goldman Sachs note helps explain some of the recent weakness in big bank stocks and adds a warning signal: Banks that gain more than 10% in Q1 usually give back nearly all those profits in Q2 when future earnings estimates begin falling. Goldman's top concern heading into Q1 earnings is that "lackluster fundamentals could lead to a negative EPS revision cycle (which has been the trend the past few years)." 5 Comments [Financials, Quick Ideas]
Tuesday, April 9, 9:48 AM JPMorgan Chase (JPM) will lead big U.S. banks in job cuts with 17K expected through 2014, according to Bloomberg, after the six largest U.S. banks announced cuts to 1.8%, or 21K positions, during Q1. The housing rebound means many of the cuts will come in foreclosure units. Banks may tell more about their personnel plans starting this Friday when JPM and Wells Fargo (WFC) report Q1 results. 1 Comment [Financials]
Thursday, March 14, 5:14 PM After hours movers in the banks: JPM -2.5% and GS -2.1% after the two had their capital proposals approved but were asked to submit new plans "to address weakness in their capital planning processes." WFC +0.4%, BAC +3.8% after no dividend hike, but a whopping $10.5B in share repurchases and redemption of high-yielding preferreds. Morgan Stanley +0.9%. The XLF +0.1%. 18 Comments [Financials, On the Move]
Thursday, March 7, 11:01 AM The big U.S. banks are considering defying the Fed and announcing capital return plans shortly after stress tests are released this afternoon, reports Bloomberg. The Fed wants the lenders to wait another week, but bank lawyers worry the plans will leak out. It's under discussion, JPM CFO Lake told an investor conference (transcript) Tuesday. XLF +0.6%. 34 Comments [Financials]
Monday, March 4, 11:55 AM Expect gradual, but not outsized jumps in capital returns from the banks this year, says Goldman (stress tests results are due Thursday, capital return decisions due March 14). Management teams are likely to be conservative in their requests from the Fed as "taking a mulligan" - i.e., resubmitting a plan after being shot down - is not seen as a viable option. 6 Comments [Financials]
Tuesday, February 19, 11:42 AM The technicians call it resistance and the financial sector (XLF, KRE) is up against it in a big way, says BAML (h/t John Melloy). Comment! [Financials]
Friday, February 15, 9:32 AM New FASB proposals could give banks more room to value certain assets on their books with models, rather than market values. The proposals would also eliminate the perverse DVA adjustment, in which banks record a profit as their credit situation worsens (and a loss as it improves). Stakeholder comments are due by May 15. Comment! [Financials]

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RevenueShares Financials Sector ETF