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RYE vs. ETF Alternatives
Seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before expenses, the performance of the S&P Equal Weight Index Energy.
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Monday, Mar 311:35 AM
Monday, Mar 311:35 AM| 1 Comment
- The Obama administration imposes new limits on the amount of sulfur in gasoline, overruling the objections of refiners and oil companies who say the new ceiling would be too low and drop too fast.
- Refiners will have until 2017 to comply with a strict new 10-parts-per-million cap, one-third the current sulfur threshold and 97% less than an earlier limit phased out in 2004.
- The oil industry says the standard is both unwarranted and costly, forcing refiners to make ~$10B in investments in energy-intensive hydrotreaters and other equipment to strip more sulfur out of gasoline, in addition to $2.4B in estimated annual compliance costs.
- The EPA also establishes new mandates for automotive tailpipe emissions that track California limits coming online in 2017, a move that will make it easier for U.S. automakers to sell the same car in all 50 states.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, OIH, VDE, ERY, DIG, DUG, XES, IYE, IEZ, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, FXN, RYE, DDG
Saturday, Mar 18:25 AM
Saturday, Mar 18:25 AM| 24 Comments
- This week's Interior Department endorsement of seismic testing in Atlantic waters is a first step toward allowing drilling from Delaware to Florida's Cape Canaveral for the first time in decades.
- The American Petroleum Institute calls the recommendation a critical step toward bolstering U.S. energy security, while environmentalists say the decision turns the Atlantic Ocean into a "blast zone" that could be a "death sentence" for marine mammals.
- Actual drilling of test wells can't begin until an existing ban on Atlantic production expires in 2017, and even then only after the government agrees to lease ocean tracts to energy companies.
- The area, particularly off the coasts of Virginia and the Carolinas, is estimated to hold ~3.3B barrels of oil and 312T cf of natural gas.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, OIH, VDE, ERY, FCG, DIG, DUG, GASL, IYE, GASX, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, FXN, RYE, DDG
Friday, Feb 282:48 PM
Friday, Feb 282:48 PM| 4 Comments
- Refiners mostly continue to languish after shares were hammered yesterday as the Brent-WTI spread narrowed to its tightest level since last October.
- Credit Suisse isn't too excited about the near-term outlook; while March-April could see some widening of the spread given the transfer of inventory from Cushing to the Gulf, summer crude spreads should remain tight given as East of Rockies refineries ramp up for peak gasoline demand.
- On individual stocks, the firm says Western Refining (WNR -3%) and Phillips 66 (PSX +0.1%) should benefit from other businesses, while Tesoro (TSO +1.1%) could benefit from being recognized as a “Gulf Coast Refiner” but Delek US (DK -3.5%) needs to show signs of earnings improvement before it's worth buying.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, OIH, VDE, ERY, DIG, DUG, XES, IYE, IEZ, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, FXN, RYE, DDG.
Friday, Feb 214:49 PM
Friday, Feb 214:49 PM| 6 Comments
- ConocoPhillips (COP) CEO Ryan Lance refutes the warnings of shale boom skeptics, maintaining the U.S. shale revolution is only in the “first inning of a nine inning game” and critics shouldn’t assume growing shale production will stop any time soon.
- Skeptics say the U.S. is facing a shale bubble, and energy production declines much more dramatically from shale drilling relative to conventional techniques, but Lance adamantly disagrees, arguing that the industry’s technology advances could compensate for any projected production declines.
- "What we’re learning is we’ve only scratched the surface of what technology can do to improve the outlook over the years,” Lance says, and “this is the layer that can last for quite some time."
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, OIH, VDE, ERY, FCG, DIG, XOP, DUG, GASL, FRAK, IYE, IEO, GASX, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FXN, FENY, RYE, DDG
Tuesday, Feb 49:28 AM
Tuesday, Feb 49:28 AM| Comment!
- Three of ten sectors tracked by Bespoke have nearly fallen off the screen - trading more than three standard deviations below their 50-day moving averages. The three: Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Energy (XLE). Telecom (XTL) is nearly in the same boat - 2.97 standard deviations below its 50-day.
- Only one sector - the defensive utility group - is above its 50-day moving average.
- Consumer Discretionary ETFs: XLY, VCR, FXD, FDIS, RCD, PEZ, PSCD
- Consumer Staples ETFs: XLP, VDC, FXG, RHS, PSL, FSTA, PSCC
- Broad energy ETFs: XLE, ERX, OIH, VDE, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FXN, FENY, RYE, DDG
- Telecom ETFs: IYZ, VOX, XTL, LTL, FCOM, TLL
- Utility ETFs: XLU, IDU, VPU, NLR, GRID, JXI, NUCL, DBU, IPU, RYU, PUI, UPW, FXU, SDP, FUTY, PSCU, AXUT, UTLT
Wednesday, Dec 112013, 10:02 AM
Wednesday, Dec 112013, 10:02 AM| Comment!
- "Warehouses over townhouses" is one of BAML's ten themes for 2014 - highlighting a potential shift away from consumer-driven stocks to industrial and commercial names.
- "If revenue growth continues to accelerate as we expect, corporations are likely to invest in their businesses by spending some of the cash accumulated on their balance sheets. This capex cycle, combined with improving global economic growth, is likely to benefit stocks in more industrial and cyclical parts of the economy over those that are more dependent on the consumer. In our view, this has already started, but probably is in its early stages."
- An attached chart shows this outperformance beginning to creep in in Q3.
- If the thesis is correct, investors may want to be sellers of Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Health Care (XLV), and Financials (XLF), and buyers of Tech (XLK), Energy (XLE), Industrials (XLI), and Materials (XLB).
- Related ETFs: FAS, XLF, IYH, FAZ, XLE, XLV, ERX, XLI, XLY, XLB, OIH, VHT, VDE, ERY, UYG, DIG, DUG, VFH, VCR, UYM, VAW, IYE, CURE, VIS, IGE, IYM, IYF, RXL, FXH, SEF, SMN, PXJ, IYG, PXI, IYJ, FXO, PFI, PSCH, KBWB, PSCE, FXD, UXI, MATL, PYZ, PRN, FXN, FXZ, RYE, RWW, FINU, FHLC, RYH, DDG, FXR, RCD, RTM, RYF, FIDU, SBM, SIJ, PSCF, PTH, FDIS, FENY, RGI, FNCL, RXD, PEZ, PSCD, PSCI, PSCM, FMAT, FINZ
Monday, Nov 252013, 9:59 AM
Monday, Nov 252013, 9:59 AM| Comment!
- The company filed supplementary paperwork with the SEC for 20% expense ratio reductions on its suite of equal weight sector funds to take effect December 1st.
- This fee cut will reduce the current management expense ratio of the fund series from 0.50% to 0.40% to better compete with other funds on the market.
- Other Guggenheim Equal Weight ETFs: RYT, RCD, RYH, RHS, RYE, RYF, RGI, RYU, RTM
Tuesday, Nov 122013, 7:15 PM
Tuesday, Nov 122013, 7:15 PM| 61 Comments
- The secret, dirty cost of the U.S. ethanol push: The ethanol era has proven far more damaging to the environment than promised and much worse than the government admits today, according to an AP analysis. (also)
- As farmers rushed to find new places to plant corn, they wiped out millions of acres of conservation land, destroyed habitat and polluted water supplies, the report says; 5M acres of land set aside for conservation have vanished on Obama's watch.
- Government mandates to increase ethanol production have helped drive up corn prices, leading to marginal land being farmed to produce the crop; in 2012, 44% of the U.S. corn crop was used for fuel, about twice the rate in 2006.
- Relevant stocks: VLO, ADM, PEIX, BIOF, GPRE, REGI
- ETFs: FUE, IEO, IEX, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG
Wednesday, Oct 162013, 7:15 PM
Wednesday, Oct 162013, 7:15 PM| 16 Comments
- The U.S. has passed Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest oil producer, thanks to the fastest oil production expansion over a four-year period since the 1970-74 Saudi output surge, energy analysis firm PIRA says.
- The U.S. growth rate is greater than the sum of the growth of the next nine fastest growing countries combined and has covered most of the world's net demand growth over the past two years, according to PIRA.
- Total liquids produced by the U.S., defined broadly to include supplies such as crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids and biofuels, should average 12.1M bbl/day in 2013, a 3.2M bbl/day jump from 2009.
- ETFs: IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG.
Tuesday, Oct 152013, 6:58 PM
Tuesday, Oct 152013, 6:58 PM| 1 Comment
- The U.S. Supreme Court today agreed to review the EPA’s approach to regulating greenhouse gas emissions from refineries, power plants and other stationary sources, throwing the Obama administration's landmark rules into a state of uncertainty.
- The move was applauded by the American Petroleum Institute, which said “the Clean Air Act clearly only requires pre-construction permits for six specific emissions that impact national air quality - not greenhouse gases."
- The news breathes new life into lawsuits by industry groups and several states that challenged the EPA's regulations; last year, the D.C. federal appeals court sided with the EPA on nearly every issue in the case.
- ETFs: GRN, IDU, PUI, XLU, VPU, RYU, FXU, PSCU, UPW, SDP, UTLT, IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG.
Monday, Oct 142013, 2:49 PM
Monday, Oct 142013, 2:49 PM| Comment!
- The U.S. may be set to surpass Russia as the world’s largest oil and natural gas producer, but it ranks fifth out of 13 countries in overall energy security, says a report from Roubini Global Economics (yes, that Roubini) and Securing America’s Future Energy.
- The U.S. ranks high because of its relatively high levels of domestic oil production, but its fuel consumption per capita was higher than everyone except Saudi Arabia; the more fuel a country consumes, the more susceptible it is to supply disruptions and price volatility.
- Saudi Arabia and Russia, which derive ~90% and ~50% respectively of export revenues from oil, are lowest ranked, while Japan and the U.K. are the top two because they rank lowest on the oil intensity scale; Japan consumes 0.3 barrels of oil per $1,000 of its GDP, but the U.S. consumes nearly twice as much.
- ETFs: IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG.
Friday, Oct 112013, 6:50 PM
Friday, Oct 112013, 6:50 PM| 13 Comments
- The EPA seeks to calm a furor over its apparent proposal to reduce ethanol use in gasoline next year (I, II), saying no final decisions have been made and the Obama administration remains committed to developing biofuels as a part of the plan to reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil.
- Growth Energy, a pro-ethanol group, calls for an investigation of the leak of what it says are unverified draft documents that were still under review.
- Ethanol groups fear any wavering on the use of ethanol could undermine their future, while oil refiners say the law is forcing them to spend billions of dollars to buy ethanol credits and driving up gasoline prices.
- Top ethanol/biofuels stocks: GPRE, REGI, PEIX.
- ETFs: FUE, IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG.
Wednesday, Oct 22013, 6:45 PM
Wednesday, Oct 22013, 6:45 PM| 4 Comments
- The increase of U.S. energy output in recent years has been widely discussed, but a WSJ analysis of global data shows the U.S. is on track to pass Russia as the world's largest producer of oil and gas this year - if it hasn't already.
- The U.S. last year tapped more natural gas than Russia for the first time since 1982, and it's catching up in pumping crude; Russia produced an average 10.8M bbl/day in H1 2013, 900K/day more than the U.S. but down from a difference of 3M bbl/day a few years ago.
- The amount of crude from the Bakken oil field in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford shale in Texas continues to rise rapidly, while Russian output is expected to remain flat through 2016; that's a big problem for Russia, whose oil exports could fall 25%-30% after 2015, reducing GDP more than $100B. (also)
- ETFs: IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG, IXC, IOIL, AXEN, IPW, GNAT, FILL, RSX, ERUS, RBL, RSXJ, RUDR.
Wednesday, Oct 22013, 3:26 PM
Wednesday, Oct 22013, 3:26 PM| 2 Comments
- It's a pretty good day for refiners, even as most energy stocks slip, as Phillips 66 (PSX +2.1%), Valero (VLO +1.2%), Tesoro (TSO +0.2%), Western Refining (WNR +1.2%), Marathon Petroleum (MPC +1.2%) and HollyFrontier (HFC +0.4%) all post gains.
- PSX rises the most among energy companies in the S&P 500 after announcing a 25% increase in its quarterly dividend, VLO and TSO are upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup (I, II), and WNR rolls out a 12.5M-share IPO of its logistics unit.
- Refiners generally have come in for criticism recently; Barclays, for one, believes most refiners will miss consensus earnings expectations by a wide margin, with VLO the exception.
Monday, Sep 302013, 4:59 PM
Monday, Sep 302013, 4:59 PM| Comment!
- In the event of a federal government shutdown, the energy industry would keep on drilling but approval of new plans would pause, WSJ’s Tom Fowler reports.
- New oil and gas permitting on public lands as well as the review of new offshore drilling plans would come to a halt, but most safety inspections and the review of ongoing offshore drilling would continue, according to contingency plans prepared by the Interior Department.
Saturday, Sep 282013, 8:25 AM
Saturday, Sep 282013, 8:25 AM| 38 Comments
- North America will become "energy independent" by 2020 on the strength of the shale revolution and then become a net energy exporter, consultant Wood Mackenzie says in a new report.
- North America’s energy independence will introduce a new dynamic to coal, oil and gas prices; coal and gas exports will establish a price cap on their respective markets during periods of high demand, and weak oil demand growth will see U.S. tight oil provide a price floor under crude markets.
- The report says energy independence does not imply a North America entirely detached from global markets; the region as a whole will be dependent on others to clear excess production, and the U.S. will need to import oil for the foreseeable future.
- ETFs: IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG, IXC, IOIL, AXEN, IPW, GNAT, FILL.