Tue, Jan. 20, 9:43 AM
- Hovnanian (HOV -5%), M/I Homes (MHO -3.1%), and Taylor Morrison (TMHC -4.3%) are all cut at JMP Securities, with MHO and TMHC now Market Performs, and HOV now Underperform.
- Credit Suisse, meanwhile, also cuts Taylor Morrison. Alongside, the team downgrades Ryland Group (RYL -3.2%), Meritage Homes (MTH -3.4%), and PulteGroup (PHM -3.3%) to Underperform, noting margin declines (see KB Home and Lennar earnings) and a slowdown in Texas thanks to oil's plunge.
- There's one upgrade, and that's NVR (NVR), which is boosted to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: KB Home: "Work to be done" to meet goals; -12.6% (Jan. 13)
- Previously: Lennar leads homebuilders lower after earnings (Jan. 15)
Thu, Jan. 15, 11:31 AM
- The company earlier reported bottom-line results which beat estimates, but the top line slightly missed.
- FQ4 (ending Nov. 30) deliveries of 6,950 homes gained 23% from a year ago. New orders of 5,492 homes up 22%, up 24% in dollar terms. ASP of $329K vs. $307K a year ago. Incentives of 23.1K per home, or 6.6% of home sales revenue vs. $20.6K and 6.3% a year ago.
- Backlogs of 5,832 homes up 21%, up 22% in dollar terms.
- Gross margins of 25.6% fell 120 basis points from a year ago. Operating margin of 16% down 90 bps.
- Like KB Home earlier this week, Lennar (LEN -4%) warns of lower gross margins for fiscal 2015.
- ITB -2.9%, XHB -2.2%
- Toll Brothers (TOL -2.7%), Hovnanian (HOV -5.3%), D.R. Horton (DHI -4.9%), Ryland (RYL -4.7%), KB Home (KBH -5.5%), Pulte (PHM -4.3%) M.D.C. Holdings (MDC -5.9%), NVR (NVR -2.5%), Standard Pacific (SPF -3.2%)
- Previously: Lennar beats by $0.11, misses on revenue (Jan. 15)
Tue, Jan. 13, 11:48 AM
- Up earlier after reporting a strong FQ4, KB Home (KBH -12.2%) goes into the tank as the earnings call begins and management warns on margins.
- Webcast here
- Some homebuilders are red, some are green, but all are well off session highs in sympathy: Hovnanian (HOV -2.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI -2.3%), Toll Brothers (TOL +0.3%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.6%), Ryland (RYL +0.2%)
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: KB Home up 4.4% after strong FQ4 results (Jan. 13)
Mon, Jan. 12, 8:02 AM
- The president's announcement of significantly lower FHA mortgage premiums indicates easier home loan financing is on the way - a game-changer for the housing industry, says Raymond James, upgrading D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI), KB Home (NYSE:KBH), MDC Holdings (NYSE:MDC), Ryland (NYSE:RYL), and Standard Pacific (NYSE:SPF) to Outperform from Neutral.
- Previously: Homebuilders welcome report of lower FHA fees (Jan. 7)
Thu, Jan. 8, 7:01 AM
Wed, Jan. 7, 11:04 AM
- Bloomberg is reporting the president as set to announce a 50 basis point reduction in FHA fees to 0.85% at an event in Phoenix tomorrow. The news isn't good for private mortgage insurers who have been happily raking in market share gains at the expense of the government agency, but the homebuilders are a different story.
- Previously: Mortgage insurers tumble on report of cut in FHA premiums (Jan. 7)
- ETFs: ITB +3%, XHB +2.5%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +2.7%), Lennar (LEN +3.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI +4%), Ryland (RYL +2.9%), KB Home (KBH +2.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.6%), PulteGroup (PHM +3.9%).
Dec. 11, 2014, 12:11 PM
Dec. 10, 2014, 3:53 PM
- "Why 2014 was a pause and flat to 2013 and not improving has been a bit puzzling," says Toll Brothers (TOL -7.6%) management on the earnings call.
- Asked about the impact of tumbling energy prices on markets like Dallas and Houston, management says the company's exposure there is small, with Houston accounting for 3.7% of signed contracts.
- Overall, Toll expects the housing recovery to be "bumpy," and that demand will truly return when buyers no longer fear price drops.
- Previously: Toll Brothers slips on FQ4 miss (Dec. 10, 2014)
- It's a different story (at least for the stock price) with Hovanian (HOV +5.9%) after its earning report today. Management: "It's an understatement to say that the past 12 months have been choppy ... Given the gains we've seen in employment, we would have expected stronger home sales."
- Previously: Hovnanian pops as fiscal 2015 starts off strong (Dec. 10, 2014)
- Other builders today: Ryland (RYL -5.1%), Lennar (LEN -5.3%), Beazer (BZH -5.1%), Pulte (PHM -3.5%), KB Home (KBH -5.1%).
- ETFs: ITB -3.4%, XHB -2.5%
Nov. 10, 2014, 10:08 AM
- Releasing preliminary FQ4 results ahead of a conference presentation, Toll Brothers reported sizable year-over-year sales gains both in terms of units and dollars. The ASP of homes delivered of $747K was up 6.3% from a year ago. The ASP of signed contracts in FQ4 of $757K was up 5%.
- PulteGroup (PHM +2.6%) is also benefitting from an upgrade to Buy at BofA. Others: Lennar (LEN +2.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Ryland (RYL +3.1%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.4%), KB Home (KBH +3.1%).
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
Oct. 23, 2014, 10:23 AM
- Pretax earnings of $78.9M up 46.2% Y/Y. Net income of $48.5M or $0.85 per share.
- Closings of 2,018 units up 7.2% Y/Y, with ASP of $331K up 11.1%.
- Housing gross profit margin of 22.2% up 160 basis points.
- New Orders (excluding backlog acquired from Cornell Homes in July) up 13.6% in units, up 19.6% in dollars.
- Backlog up 5.4% in units to 3,559, up 14.5% in dollars to $1.2B.
- Active communities up 15.1% to 327. Controlled lots up 7% to 41,476.
- 860K shares repurchased during quarter.
- Previously: Ryland Group beats by $0.05, misses on revenue
- RYL -0.55%
Oct. 23, 2014, 8:08 AM
Oct. 8, 2014, 7:40 AM
- Analyst Ken Zener expects: 1) Lower Q3 order growth than consensus 2) 18% lower earnings 3) A decline in the current 30% price to book premium to peers.
- His $30 price target for Ryland (NYSE:RYL) equals 1.6x estimated book value, inline with peers' current average of 1.6x. It's also roughly 10x his $3.06 earnings estimate - the Street is at $3.62.
Sep. 17, 2014, 10:04 AM
- Lennar's sizable earnings beat included a 23% gain in new orders - a strong result given the slowdown seen from some other builders.
- Previously: Lennar up 4.3% after reporting big quarter
- ETFs: ITB +2.6%, XHB +1.8%
- Individual players: Ryland (RYL +4.8%) Pulte (PHM +3.8%), Toll Bros. (TOL +3.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI +4%), Hovnanian (HOV +5.8%), KB Home (KBH +4.4%), Comstock (CHCI +4.2%), Standard Pacific (SPF +3.8%).
Sep. 3, 2014, 10:16 AM
- The homebuilders are lower in early action following Toll Brothers beating earnings estimates, but expressing caution on pricing power, and cutting guidance for full-year home deliveries.
- ITB -0.8%, XHB -0.5%.
- Individual names: Hovnanian (HOV -0.9%), Lennar (LEN -1.5%), KB Home (KBH -1.8%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.4%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.1%), Ryland (RYL -1.5%), NVR (NVR -1.1%), Standard Pacific (SPF -1.1%).
Aug. 19, 2014, 10:31 AM
- A far-faster-than-expected 15.7% gain in housing starts in July has the homebuilders sharply higher. Lenner (LEN +2.6%), Comstock (CHCI +5.8%), Ryland (RYL +2.4%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Toll Bros. (TOL +1.4%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.1%), KB Home (KBH +1.9%).
- Commenting on the number, Bill McBride notes starts in Q1 averaged 925K on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, 997K in Q2, and that Q3 appears to be off to a solid start (1.093M in July). By year's end, McBride expects 2014 housing starts to increase by a double-digit pace over a weak 2013.
Aug. 5, 2014, 12:45 PM
- Cautious overall on small caps (NYSEARCA:IWM) due to valuation concerns, Goldman's David Kostin nevertheless has a list of 25 names with market caps less than $4B which could offer at least 25% upside to his firm's price target over the next year.
- The list skews towards Consumer Discretionary - Lumber Lidquidators (LL +2.1%), Office Depot (ODP -2.4%), RetailMeNot (SALE -26.1%), Ryland (RYL +0.5%), Steven Madden (SHOO +2.7%), Vitamin Shoppe (VSI -8.2%) - and Tech - Universal Display (OLED -0.2%), Qlik Technologies (QLIK -1.6%), Proofpoint (PFPT -1.5%), Polycom (PLCM +0.2%), Nimble Storage (NMBL -0.3%), Marketo (MKTO +1.1%), Infinera (INFN +1.1%), Cornerstone Ondemand (CSOD -0.9%), GT Advanced Technology (GTAT +5.7%).
- Also included are Health Care names: Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO -1.1%), NPS Pharma (NPSP +0.7%), NuVasive (NUVA -1.8%), Synageva (GEVA -1.6%); Consumer Staples: Darling Ingredients (DAR -0.8%); Materials: Axiall (AXLL -1%), Boise Cascade (BCC -0.9%); Industrials: Granite Construction (GVA +0.7%), Financials: MGIC Investment (MTG +1.2%), Radian (RDN +1.7%).
RYL vs. ETF Alternatives
Ryland Group Inc is a homebuilder and a mortgage-finance company, which consists of five operating segments namelyNorth, Southeast, Texas and West (four geographically determined homebuilding regions); and financial services.
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