We published a competitive analysis report last year in which we analyzed and evaluated Rayonier (RYN), which was a former subsidiary of the old ITT Corporation against its three largest Timber REIT competitors. We concluded that while Weyerhauser (WY) was the biggest Timber REIT, Rayonier generates the strongest profit margin of the big four Timber REITs (Rayonier, Weyerhaeuser, Potlatch and Plum Creek). We also find that Rayonier has less downside risk than its peers because of its strong performing Performance Fibers Division, which generated an ample 32.8% operating margin in FY 2012.

Rayonier's Performance Fibers business accounts for nearly 70% of its FY 2012 revenues versus 26% for WY. Rayonier's operating margin of 32.5% for its Performance Fibers division easily exceeds the 12% for WY's Cellulose Fibers unit. That means that even though RYN's Performance Fibers FY 2012 revenue of $1.1B is less than WY's Cellulose Fibers revenue ($1.85B),

About six months ago, one of my readers suggested that I do an article on Acadian Timber Corporation (ACAZF.PK). Since I started writing for Seeking Alpha, I have concentrated on the US timber industry, mainly Plum Creek (PCL), Potlatch (PCH), Rayonier (RYN), Weyerhaeuser (WY), and Pope Resources (POPE). I have had first-hand knowledge of all of these companies from my 36-year career in the timber industry, both in the Southeast and the Northwest.

Acadian Timber Corp. is a Canadian company with timberland holding in New Brunswick Canada and Northern Maine in the US. It has been in business as a Canadian corporation since 2010. Before that, Acadian was a Mutual Fund Trust created in 2006 by Brookfield Asset Management. It converted to a corporation in 2010 because of changes in Canada's tax laws. Its land holding are from the former Fraser Paper Company. Brookfield currently owns about 45% of Acadian

This article is a follow-on for one written recently on the same subject except covering stocks with exponential dividend growth. Here we will cover stocks with linear dividend growth. Generally speaking, utilities, REITs, MLPs and telecom companies exhibit linear dividend growth. What this means is that dividends are increased yearly by the same amount in dollars (give or take), rather than by the same percentage (give or take) for exponential growth stocks. Linear growth stocks do not follow the Rule of 72, thus do not compound. Misleading results will follow if they are treated the same.

In this article, I will analyze linear growth stocks in the High Income, Mélange and Bond segments of my portfolio. This will serve to illustrate points being discussed (in a real-life situation), while at the same time, let me update how my stuff is doing.

Stocks in the High Income segment are: CenterPoint

RECOMMENDATION

We have an Accumulate rating on Weyerhaeuser's (WY) common stock. We believe that investors have bid Weyerhaeuser's stock up by 75% over the last six quarters because they are counting on a recovery in the housing market to serve as a catalyst for growth in WY's top and bottom lines. We can see that it would provide significant leverage to WY's bottom line because 53% of WY's operating income was used to pay debt interest, so any boost to revenue would boost WY's operating income and enable WY to generate significant gains in Net Income. We increased our fair intrinsic value per share for Weyerhaeuser from $29.02 in October to $34.88 in March and we're raising it again to $35.92. Although WY's share price has generated strong growth since 2011, we believe that the company will be able to enjoy steadily improving revenues and operating income, which will boost

"If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

Media outlets have been gushing nearly every day about the extraordinary recovery in the housing market. After many very difficult years following the bursting of the housing bubble and the outbreak of the financial crisis, this is certainly welcome news. The strength of the housing market is not only a key driver of economic growth, but it is also an important source of optimism for risk asset prices including stocks. But despite all of the apparent good news, some troubling signs remain that are undermining this story. And unless one particular trend changes soon, it may have negative implications for the stock market going forward.

The housing market has clearly improved from the depths of a few years ago, and a variety of data support this conclusion. For example, the

Earnings season is in full swing and if you're a Dividend Growth investor with money to spend I'm sure you've been busy been making strategic purchases from your watch list. If you read my recent article on my portfolio business plan you know that one of my requirements is to maintain an active watch list and review and modify that list quarterly. My goal is to have a diversified watch list with companies that can serve as replacements for current holdings should it become necessary to replace

Each of the members of my watch list has passed the difficult hurdle of a year-by-year performance assessment and must have had sustained dividend growth going back to 2008. With few exceptions made for stocks that don't go back that long, each must have incurred fewer than four down years over the last 11. Last quarter I focused on higher beta selections, in

Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call

April 25, 2013 14:00 ET

Executives

Hans Vanden Noort - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President

Paul Boynton - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Lynn Wilson - Senior Vice President, Forest Resources

Charlie Margiotta - Senior Vice President, Real Estate

Jack Kriesel - Senior Vice President, Performance Fibers

Analysts

Mike Roxland - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Mark Wilde - Deutsche Bank

Mark Weintraub - Buckingham Research

Josh Barber - Stifel

Steve Chercover - D.A. Davidson

Paul Quinn - RBC Capital Markets

Stuart Benway - S&P Capital IQ

Collin Mings - Raymond James

Presentation

Operator

Welcome, and thank you for joining Rayonier’s First Quarter 2013 Teleconference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) Today’s call is being recorded. If you have objections, you may disconnect at this time.

Now, I

As the U.S. housing market has been recovering from the 2008 - 2009 recessionary lows this has provided many investment opportunities. One company that is situated in an industry poised to capitalize on the U.S. housing recovery is Rayonier Inc. (RYN).

Rayonier Inc. is an international forest products company. It is engaged in activities associated with timberland management, sale and entitlement of real estate, and production and sale of high value specialty cellulose fibers and fluff pulp.

In the section below, I will analyze the past four performances of the company. I will look at Rayonier's past profitability, debt and capital, and operating efficiency. Based on this information, we will look for strengths and weaknesses in the company's fundamentals. This should give us an understanding of how the company has fared over the past few years and will give us an idea of what to expect in the future.

I strongly urge any investors owning Gladstone Land (LAND) to get out while you can. Prima facie this company is a land play with a great dividend, but in reality it is neither. This article will demonstrate other land plays to be vastly superior and that the dividend is an illusion. Given the relevance of dividends in today's market we will begin by debunking that.

False dividend

If you look at Yahoo Finance or SNL Financial, it will list LAND as having an 8.09% dividend yield based on a market price of $17.81. This is consequent to the method by which these sources calculate current yield. They take the most recent distribution declaration and annualize it. Normally, this method is fine, but in certain cases it is way off.

In the case of Gladstone Land, it is based on the $0.12 monthly distributions announced for April, May and June. However,

I recently read a quarterly newsletter by Brookfield Timberlands Management LP, a wholly owned subsidiary of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (BAM). In it, they discussed the NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries) Timberland Index results for 2012. NCREIF is an appraisal-based index. It included both third-party independent appraisals as well as internal appraisals of timberlands purchased for investments. Its members are generally the TIMO (Timberland Investment Management Organizations) community. TIMOs manage privately owned timberland investments. However, the results would also reflect on the value of the timberlands owned by the publicly traded timber REITs, Weyerhaeuser (WY), Plum Creek (PCL), Rayonier (RYN) and Potlatch (PCH). Timberland properties are routinely bought and sold by the TIMOs and timber REITs to and from each other.

For 2012, the total return from timberland investments in the index was 7.76%. This is broken down between EBITDDA returns and appreciation returns. Total EBITDDA returns

Stocks discussed on the Lightning Round session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday April 8.

Bullish Calls:

Thomson Reuters (TRI): "I think it is a good idea. It has a good dividend. It is a steady yielder, and it will be a long-term winner."

Nextrata Energy (NXTA.PK): "I like that. I wish that stock would come in, to a 4.5% yield."

Men's Wearhouse (MW): "I like Men's Wearhouse, but it has been inconsistent. One quarter was good, last quarter was bad. I'm betting this quarter is going to be good."

Rayonier (RYN), Weyerhaeuser (WY): "I wish Rayonier's yield were higher, but that means the

Calculating the intrinsic value of a firm is as much art as it is science. The art rests in determining the future forecasts and estimates of a company's earnings and cash flow, while the science is the mathematics behind a free cash flow to the firm model. Both are necessary, and both are required. There's no way around it. Let's calculate Rayonier's (RYN) intrinsic value.

But first, a little background so you can better understand this article. We think a comprehensive analysis of a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation and relative valuation versus industry peers is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy. This process culminates in what we call our Valuentum Buying Index, which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best. Essentially, we're looking for firms that overlap investment methodologies, thereby revealing the greatest

Rayonier (RYN) announced 4th quarter and 2012 year-end results on January 24. See the results here. Sales were $1,571 million, up 5.5% from 2011. Operating income was $411.5 million, up 15% from 2011, and net income was $278.7 million, up 1% from 2011. Adjusted EBITDA was $560 million, up 14% from 2011.

Cash provided by operations for 2012 was $445.9 million, up 3% from 2011. Total long-term debt was $1,120, up 37% from 2011 year-end. This is mainly due to the large capital project to expand cellulose specialty production capacity at the Jesup mill. Cash on hand is $280.6 million. Cash generation is covering Rayonier's dividend, which was $206.6 million in 2012, up 11% from 2011. Rayonier's dividend is 3.2% at this time.

When it comes to timber REITs, I prefer looking at EBITDA or cash from operations rather than net income or operating income because of the large non-cash

Plum Creek (PCL) announced 4th quarter and 2012 year-end results on January 28. See the results here. Sales were $1,339 million, up 15% from 2011. Operating income was $281 million, up 2% from 2011, and net income was $203 million, up 5% from 2011. Adjusted EBITDA was $530 million, up 19% from 2011.

Cash provided by operations for 2012 was $353 million, down 6% from 2011. Total debt was $2,950 million, up 6% from 2011 year-end. Cash on hand is $356 million. Cash generation is covering Plum Creek's dividend, which was $272 million in 2012, the same as 2011. PCL's dividend is 3.5% at this time.

When it comes to timber REITs, I prefer looking at EBITDA or cash from operations rather than net income because of the large non-cash expenses for depletion associated with timber. We will use EBITDA when talking about Plum Creek's different business

In reference to his company's results, Daniel Fulton, CEO of Weyerhauser (WY), said: "This year is a bit of an anomaly. We're seeing prices moving up in every single market for similar-type products."

All 4 timber REITS beat analyst consensus estimates for both 4Q12 and FY12.

The various factors which led to their success in 2012 are detailed in each of their earnings press releases, but I am more interested in what they can accomplish in 2013. We will begin by examining 4 catalysts, then discuss which companies are best positioned to take advantage.

Catalyst # 1: The domestic housing recovery

It seems strange that the term recovery is still being

Q4 2012 Earnings Conference Call

January 24, 2013 14:00 ET

Executives

Hans Vanden Noort - Chief Financial Officer

Paul Boynton - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Charlie Margiotta - Senior Vice President, Real Estate

Jack Kriesel - Senior Vice President, Performance Fibers

Lynn Wilson – Senior Vice President, U.S. Forest Resources

Analysts

Michael Roxland - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research

Mark Wilde - Deutsche Bank

Steve Chercover - D.A. Davidson

Paul Quinn – RBC Capital Markets

Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research

Joshua Barber - Stifel Nicolaus

Presentation

Operator

Welcome and thank you for joining Rayonier’s Fourth Quarter 2012 Teleconference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) Today’s conference is being recorded. If anyone has any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

And now, we will turn the meeting over to Mr. Hans Vanden Noort, CFO.

There is little doubt that housing has improved quite a bit in the United States, supported by historically low interest rates and increased demand. Housing stocks, which were a key tell on the Fall Melt-Up of 2011, have been star performers since then, significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500 (SPY). The wealth effect has been shown to be particularly powerful when it comes to increasing home prices, because houses tend to be more widely owned as a "big asset" relative to other investments like the stock market.

Lumber as a lagged response began to act well since the June 4th melt-up of last year began. I was largely quite bullish on lumber early in 2012 anticipating that the market would bid up prices of various