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Tuesday, June 18, 8:54 AM "The biggest contrarian play in the market today is assets linked to China (FXI, CAF)," says Michael Hartnett, summarizing BAML's latest Fund Manager Survey, which shows money flowing out of commodities (DBC) and emerging markets (EEM, DEM, VWO). Where's the money going? The eurozone and the U.S. Where it's not going is fixed-income (AGG, BND) - 50% of managers say they're now underweight bonds as opposed to 38% last month. Comment!
Tuesday, June 4, 1:17 PM Fixed-income skittishness: Bill Gross' Total Return Fund - the world's largest bond fund - suffered its first monthly outflows since 2011 in May (2011 was the year Gross made an ill-timed short bet on Treasurys). The fund fell 2.15% last month, according to Morningstar. The ETF version of the fund (BOND) fell 2.4%. Benchmarks AGG (-2.2%), and BND (-2.1%) fared a bit better. Comment! [Financials]
Friday, May 31, 11:23 AM "Mr. Market may be a manic-depressive, but he is also patient," says Britt Harris, CIO of Texas' $117B Teacher Retirement System. "He always waits to move until he has just about all of us on the train." The market cycle is getting ripe, says Harris, but he's not worried long-term. "Unlevered debt (AGG, BND) is virtually useless now as a long-term wealth management accumulator ... The probability that equity (VTI) will outperform bonds over the next 10-20 years is probably unusually high." A great read for allocation fans. 1 Comment
Thursday, May 30, 8:11 AM Even as he publicly said the bond bull market was over, Bill Gross got caught with his duration a bit too long. Pimco's Total Return Fund is off 1.8% in May, ranking it in the bottom-5 percentile of its peer group. The ETF version (BOND) is off 2.2% vs. AGG and BND each off less than 2%. BOND remains ahead of its benchmarks YTD. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy, Financials]
Tuesday, May 28, 4:20 AM It was an ugly day in fixed-income - (TLT -2.6%), (LQD -1%) - the 10-year Treasury yield up 15 bps to a 13-month high of 2.16%. Maybe more troubling for those borrowing short and lending long is a 12 bp jump in the 5-year yield to 1.01% (its up from 0.65% in a month), and a 4 bp pop in the 2-year yield to 0.28%. It was shoot first, ask questions last for many income plays such as mREITs (MORT -2.8%), equity REITs (HCN, HCP), utilities, and leveraged income funds (PHK). Owners of the leveraged short Treasury Fund (TBT +5.3%) throw a party, now up 16% in a month. Comment! [U.S. Economy, Financials]
Monday, May 6, 7:47 AM More Buffett/CNBC: "Bonds (AGG, BND, TLT) are priced artificially," he says, and investors in long-term paper stand to lose a terrific amount of money. It echos weekend comments where he told Omaha concert-goers, "I feel sorry for people that have clung to fixed-dollar investments." 15 Comments
Thursday, May 2, 7:35 AM The number of bond funds owning stocks rose to 352 in Q1, according to Morningstar, up from 312 in Q4 and the highest level in nearly 2 decades. "We believe that traditional fixed income (AGG, BND) is at a historic level of being overvalued," says Forward Management, explaining to investors why it's moved from about zero of their funds in stocks to about 50% over the last year. 5 Comments
Friday, April 12, 12:46 PM More from Gundlach: Bond indexing has been a wonderful strategy for many years, but now the well-followed indexes (BND, AGG) have too short of a duration and are overloaded with Treasurys. The value is in non-traditional sectors like emerging markets (EMB), non-agency MBS, bank loans (BKLN), and global high yield (GHYG). 4 Comments [U.S. Economy, Financials]
Friday, April 12, 12:28 PM Fixed-income may not be being given away as it was in 2010, but there's still value, says Jeff Gundlach, scoffing at talk of a bond bubble. "Raise your hand" if you own Treasurys for yourself or a client, he asked a room full of advisors (none went up). Bonds are not "over-owned" in the U.S., he says, showing cash and fixed income make up a higher percentage of household financial assets in other countries. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 8, 3:58 PM More from BlackRock's Rick Rieder (previous): He got caught wrong-footed on the yen, cutting his short bets just ahead of Thursday's BOJ announcement which sent the currency plunging. Nevertheless, he calls the BOJ program a big deal not just for Japan but as a prop to bond markets worldwide. With the Fed and BOJ buying up all in sight, fixed-income managers will be forced to widen their selection criteria. Comment! [Global & FX]
Thursday, April 4, 9:12 AM Big news for the ETF industry, Pimco's Total Return ETF (BOND) received more inflows in March than the mutual fund from which it was spawned ($263M vs. $32M) - this despite the ETF having just $4.3B in AUM vs. nearly $300B for the mutual fund. Since inception a year ago, BOND has easily outperformed both the Total Return mutual fund and its fixed-income benchmarks (AGG, BND). Comment! [Financials]
Tuesday, April 2, 12:54 PM Active management - typically a loser with stocks - worked well in fixed income in 2012, according to SPIVA which shows 70% of active managers in intermediate government bond funds beat their bogey (AGG, BNG), with the average return more than double the benchmark. Comment!
Monday, April 1, 1:22 PM Princeton University's $17B endowment has moved entirely out of fixed income, instead building a 5.9% cash position due to a combination of "exceptionally low" Treasury yields, increased price risk, and decreased "insurance functionality." The fund had a tough last year, but has outperformed benchmarks handily over the last decade. Comment!
Friday, March 15, 10:53 AM Elevated bank capital requirements mean banks are holding much lower inventories of bonds than before the financial crisis compared with mutual fund bond holdings. That’s OK while investors keep pouring money into bonds, but WSJ's Richard Barley warns if sentiment turns because investors lose confidence in central bank and government policies, "then the situation could be ugly." (also) Comment! [Financials]
Tuesday, March 5, 10:28 AM "Cash in the developed world is a terrible asset," writes Bridgewater in its (300-page) year-end investor note. "We would be short cash of all the major currencies," in continues - hedge fund shorthand for borrowing to buy risky assets. Previous: Ray Dalio and his co-CIO have made no secret of their bullishness this year. 1 Comment
Tuesday, February 19, 11:24 AM Very bearish on credit (see earlier), Howard Marks tells Bloomberg TV he's more constructive on equities, calling stocks less-loved than bonds. He's not seeing much opportunity in his forte - distressed credit - as the expected deluge in cheap assets from Europe never materialized. Comment!

SAGG Direxion Daily Total Bond Market Bear 1x ETF

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Direxion Daily Total Bond Market Bear 1x ETF