The Concur Acquisition In Context: A SaaS MegaExit
- SAP's acquisition of Concur Technologies looks to destroy shareholder value under any reasonable scenario.
- While difficult to assess, assuming SAP's cloud business is unprofitable, it appears that SAP's Successfactors and Ariba transactions have also destroyed shareholder value.
- Despite having a strong core business and selling at only 15x 2015 estimated earnings, the author is selling his shares.
- SAP HANA, short for High Performance Analytic Appliance, is the company's flagship in-memory database product launched in November 2010.
- The collaboration with HP and Accenture is a strong attempt from SAP to push forward with its HANA platform as the de-facto industry standard for in-memory application deployments.
- HANA has seen good traction, with fiscal 2013 revenues reaching approximately €664 million (~$882 million).
Factors Responsible For Our $95 SAP Price EstimateTrefis • Thu, May. 15
- We believe the company's management team has the capability to drive revenue growth and execute margin expansion through fiscal 2017.
- Subscription-based deployments, including software solutions such as Business Suite and Business Warehouse, and the HANA in-memory database module, should resonate well with customers.
- Margin targets are expected to be met thanks to lower cost of revenues and a realigned business structure to accommodate the shift to cloud offerings.
SAP's Growth Story Remains Intact Despite Asia-Pac Softness
Mon, Oct. 20, 4:29 AM
- SAP (NYSE:SAP) cut its outlook for full-year operating profit as customers moved to cloud-based software rather than packaged software, delaying recognition of those sales.
- The company now expects 2014 operating profit, excluding some special items of €5.6B-5.8B ($7.1B-7.4B), down from 5.8B-6B previously.
- Despite cutting its outlook, SAP reported €880M in net profit for the period ended Sept. 30 vs. €762M for the same period a year ago. Total revenue rose 5% to €4.3B from €4.1B a year earlier.
- SAP -4.8% premarket
Sun, Oct. 19, 5:30 PM
Tue, Oct. 14, 2:31 PM
- IBM's (IBM +0.5%) SoftLayer unit has been added to the list of cloud infrastructure (IaaS) providers supporting SAP's (SAP +0.7%) Hana Enterprise Cloud platform, which delivers SAP cloud apps (including the core SAP Business Suite) running on top of the company's Hana in-memory database.
- SAP already offers Hana Enterprise Cloud through its own data centers. The company also supports Hana use by 3rd-party cloud app developers, both through its own Hana Cloud platform and Amazon Web Services.
- An SAP exec talks up the geographic reach of IBM's data centers, and its ability to address security concerns. "A lot of our customers are concerned about data sovereignty and privacy controls. IBM was the obvious choice to help us address that."
- In January, IBM announced plans to build 15 new data centers to expand its cloud reach. Amazon and Microsoft have also been growing their global data center footprints.
- Separately, SAP has struck an OEM and managed cloud services deal with Unisys (UIS +1.1%). Unisys will offer Hana-based "bundled data analytics solutions" running on its Forward high-end server platform, as well as Hana-based analytics services "hosted in a Unisys- or partner-managed data center through a pay-for-use subscription." The services are initially aimed at U.S. federal clients.
Fri, Sep. 19, 11:23 AM
- SAP (SAP -3.9%) investors have a case of sticker shock after the company agreed to pay $8.3B (to be financed through a credit facility) to buy cloud travel/expense management software leader Concur Technologies. The acquisition price is equal to 9.6x Concur's estimated FY15 (ends Sep. '15) sales.
- On the other hand, enterprise cloud software names are rallying on hopes of fresh deal activity. CRM +1.5%. N +2.7%. NOW +2.6%. PAYC +5%. ULTI +2.2%. JIVE +1.8%. DWRE +1.8%. MKTO +1.7%.
- SAP CEO Bill McDermott proclaims combining Concur's products with Ariba's cloud procurement/B2B marketplace offerings and Fieldglass' cloud labor-management software will help his company redefine "how businesses conduct commerce across goods and services, contingent workforces, travel and entertainment."
- McDermott also praises Concur's corporate travel ecosystem, which includes Hertz, Delta, Expedia, Sabre, and many others, and sees an opportunity to create real-time travel collaboration tools running on SAP's Hana in-memory database. SAP notes only 30% of Concur customers are currently SAP clients, yielding plenty of cross-selling opportunities.
Thu, Sep. 18, 5:24 PM
- SAP is paying $129/share, or an enterprise value of $8.3B, to acquire top cloud travel/expense management software vendor Concur Technologies (NASDAQ:CNQR). The price represents a 20% premium to Concur's Thursday close.
- The deal is expected to close in Q4 2014 or Q1 2015, and will be financed using a €7B credit facility. SAP notes Concur claims 23K+ customers and 25M+ active users.
- The purchase is the latest in a string of major cloud software acquisitions by SAP, which is counting on cloud growth to offset slumping traditional license sales. Other major cloud-related purchases include SuccessFactors, Ariba, and hybris.
- Previous: Concur reportedly approached SAP, Oracle about acquisition
Wed, Sep. 3, 1:19 PM
- BNP's Brice Prunas has downgraded SAP (SAP -1.1%) to Underperform, and cut his target by €6 to €58. He cites the price pressure and lower customer lock-in resulting from the enterprise software industry's transition to cloud subscriptions from up-front licenses.
- The downgrade comes a day after Bloomberg reported leading cloud travel/expense management software vendor Concur had approached SAP about an acquisition, albeit while giving no details about SAP's reaction.
Tue, Sep. 2, 5:28 PM
- Concur (NASDAQ:CNQR) approached SAP and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) to "gauge their interest" in an acquisition, sources tell Bloomberg. Oracle, set to buy point-of-sale hardware vendor Micros for $5.3B, is said to have passed.
- No details are given on SAP's reaction. Back in January, the German software giant suggested it could make another big cloud software acquisition - it already has a few under its belt. But in April, SAP, which is counting on cloud growth to offset slumping traditional license sales, stated it considers itself under no pressure to make a deal.
- Concur has pared its AH gains: The cloud travel/expense software provider is now up 11%. Its market cap stands at $6.4B.
- Earlier: Concur reportedly exploring sale
Tue, Aug. 19, 1:46 PM
- Much like IBM, SAP (SAP +0.8%) is making a series of moves to grow its African sales, which are already increasing at a double-digit clip.
- Among other things, the software giant plans to hire up to 250 new employees on the continent through 2015 (it currently has ~700 African workers), open offices in Angola and Morocco, and expand its partner ecosystem in the region.
- SAP notes much of its direct investment will be in regional giant South Africa, where it already has a big presence. The company currently has 1.3K+ African clients.
Thu, Jul. 17, 10:20 AM
- Though SAP (SAP +2%) missed Q2 revenue estimates (while beating on EPS), it's reiterating its forecast for 6%-8% constant currency software and software-related service revenue growth. Cloud subscription/support revenue is now expected to make up €1B-€1.05B of that total, up from €950M-€1B.
- 2014 constant op. profit guidance of €5.8B-€6B is being reiterated. If currency rates remain at June levels, forex is expected to have a 2% 2014 impact on revenue and op. profit growth.
- Cloud subscription/support revenue rose 32% Y/Y (to €242M) in Q2, even with Q1's clip. Traditional software license revenue (hurt by cloud competition) fell 2% (to €957M), an improvement from Q1's 5% decline. Support revenue (based on past deals, fairly stable) rose 4% (to €2.28B) vs. 5% in Q1.
- Cost controls helped drive the EPS beat: Opex only rose fractionally Y/Y to €2.92B, even as headcount rose 4% to 67,651.
- SAP's annual cloud revenue run rate rose to ~€1.2B from ~€1.1B at the end of Q1. ~1.2K customers are now running its core Business Suite on top of the Hana in-memory database (up from ~1K), and there are ~3.6K Hana customers altogether (up from ~3.2K). Deferred cloud subscription/support revenue rose 29% Y/Y to €448M.
- Q1 results, PR
Thu, Jul. 17, 6:16 AM
Wed, Jul. 16, 5:30 PM
Thu, Jul. 3, 4:35 PM
- Political turmoil in Russia may have affected SAP's (SAP +1%) Q2 sales to the country, writes JPMorgan, while cutting its PT for the business software giant by €2 to €60 ($81.60).
- JPMorgan is also concerned about weakness in other emerging markets, and believes SAP's U.S. license revenue is still under pressure. U.S. revenue (inc. both software and services) rose 4% Y/Y to €1.065B, but its sales to the rest of the Americas fell 7% to €356M. Likewise, Asia-Pac sales (emerging markets-dependent) fell 8% to €511M.
- The note comes ahead of SAP's July 17 Q2 report. Shares sold off in April following a Q1 miss driven by a 5% Y/Y drop in traditional license revenue to €623M (overshadowed a 32% increase in cloud revenue to €221M).
Tue, Jun. 10, 6:42 PM
- The in-memory version of Oracle's (ORCL) flagship 12c database, first detailed last September, has officially launched. Oracle continues to promise major gains in query speeds and transaction-processing rates relative to a standard database, as well as easy integration with both regular Oracle databases and 3rd-party apps.
- The launch is aimed squarely at SAP's Hana in-memory database, which saw its sales rise 61% last year to €633M ($855M) and has developed a strong ecosystem.
- As one might expect, Oracle argues integration with standard 12cand mature database feature set give it an edge - Larry Ellison claims data can be moved in-memory "within minutes." Ellison adds 12c in-memory is only meant to handle active data; all other data is left on cheaper flash memory or hard drives.
- In April, Microsoft updated its SQL Server database (has gained share against Oracle in recent years) to include in-memory features.
Tue, May. 27, 10:08 AM
- Germany's Der Aktionär reports SAP (SAP +2.1%) might be looking to acquire Tibco (TIBX +5.5%). The latter's shares have jumped in response.
- Buying Tibco would strengthen SAP's middleware offerings - IBM/Oracle have a big chunk of the market - and also provide it with an analytics/data visualization platform (Spotfire) to complement its Hana in-memory database.
- But an acquisition price would likely be north of $4B, and Spotfire has been struggling lately amid tough competition from Tableau and others.
- On Twitter, Germantrader suggests taking the report cautiously, calling it "guesswork" and stating Der Aktionär "is not trusted in Germany."
- SAP has suggested it could make some large deals, as cloud competition pressures its on-premise software license sales. Recent purchases include marketing software firm SeeWhy and labor-management software firm Fieldglass.
Tue, May. 20, 11:30 AM
- Acquisition-hungry SAP's (SAP -0.3%) latest buyout target is SeeWhy, a top provider of behavior-analysis online marketing software. Terms are undisclosed.
- SeeWhy's products monitor/analyze the activity of online/mobile shoppers, and use their findings to deliver personalized e-mail follow-ups and targeted ads. Its offerings complement those of SAP's hybris unit, a leading provider of e-commerce infrastructure software (acquired last year, possibly for $1B+).
- Demandware (DWRE -1.5%), which competes against SAP/hybris, has a partnership with SeeWhy that could be affected by the deal.
- SAP's move comes two months after the company struck a partnership with Adobe's Marketing Cloud online ad tech unit, and announced it's buying cloud labor-management software vendor Fieldglass.
Thu, May. 8, 2:16 PM
- Shortly after SAP (SAP -2.4%) announced senior product development exec/executive board member Vishal Sikka is leaving, re/code has reported cloud software chief Shawn Price has been fired.
- Sources state Price won't be replaced, as SAP tries to portray its cloud ops as an integral part of its business rather than a separate unit. SuccessFactors (cloud HR software) chief Graham Younger left in February.
- Re/code also states Americas chief Rodolpho Carduento is being reassigned - he'll now head SAP's partner ecosystem efforts - and that the Americas unit will be split into North and Latin American segments.
- The changes come as co-CEO Bill McDermott gets set to become sole CEO following SAP's May 21 annual meeting. In an interview, McDermott insists SAP's core strategy isn't changing.
- He also talks up the ability of its Hana in-memory database, whose development was spearheaded Sikka, to cut the time needed to analyze customer data. "We're talking about radical improvements in speed and understanding of what's going on with the customer, and wiping out indexes and aggregates when it comes to financial reporting."
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