The Concur Acquisition In Context: A SaaS MegaExit
- SAP's acquisition of Concur Technologies looks to destroy shareholder value under any reasonable scenario.
- While difficult to assess, assuming SAP's cloud business is unprofitable, it appears that SAP's Successfactors and Ariba transactions have also destroyed shareholder value.
- Despite having a strong core business and selling at only 15x 2015 estimated earnings, the author is selling his shares.
- SAP HANA, short for High Performance Analytic Appliance, is the company's flagship in-memory database product launched in November 2010.
- The collaboration with HP and Accenture is a strong attempt from SAP to push forward with its HANA platform as the de-facto industry standard for in-memory application deployments.
- HANA has seen good traction, with fiscal 2013 revenues reaching approximately €664 million (~$882 million).
Factors Responsible For Our $95 SAP Price EstimateTrefis • Thu, May. 15
- We believe the company's management team has the capability to drive revenue growth and execute margin expansion through fiscal 2017.
- Subscription-based deployments, including software solutions such as Business Suite and Business Warehouse, and the HANA in-memory database module, should resonate well with customers.
- Margin targets are expected to be met thanks to lower cost of revenues and a realigned business structure to accommodate the shift to cloud offerings.
SAP's Growth Story Remains Intact Despite Asia-Pac Softness
Mon, May. 5, 7:58 AM
- Vishal Sikka, a senior SAP product development exec and the software giant's "executive board member for products and innovation," has left for "personal reasons."
- Customer operations chief Robert Enslin and app development chief Bernd Leukert will join the executive board. Two other execs, Stefan Ries an Helen Arnold, will be joining the managing board. Ries is SAP's HR chief, an Arnold has just been appointed CIO.
- Sikka's bio declares him to have "global responsibility for development and delivery of all products across SAP’s product portfolio," as well as for "design and end-user experience." Among other things, he spearheaded the development of SAP's very successful Hana in-memory database.
- There was speculation Sikka could be named CEO down the road. Co-CEO Bill McDermott is set to become sole CEO this month.
- The shakeup comes ahead of SAP's June 3-5 SapphireNow conference. It follows the February departure of Graham Younger, the head of SAP's SuccessFactors cloud HR software unit. Shares are down 2.4% in Frankfurt.
Thu, Apr. 17, 11:42 AM
- Though SAP's (SAP -2.1%) non-IFRS cloud subscription/support revenue rose 32% Y/Y in Q1 (even with Q4's rate) to €221M, its traditional software license revenue fell 5% to €623M after growing 1% in Q4.
- Much like archrival Oracle's 2013 license revenue misses, the latter figure is bound to trigger fears about the impact of cloud software competition.
- Support revenue (driven by software licenses, relatively steady) rose 5% Y/Y to €2.21B, and all other revenue fell 8% to €643M. Opex rose just 2% Y/Y.
- A strong euro took a toll: Whereas revenue and op. profit each rose 2% Y/Y at current exchange rates, they've would've risen 6% and 7% at constant currency. SAP expects a similar forex impact for the whole of 2014.
- SAP now has 3.2K+ Hana customers, up from 3K+ at the end of 2013, and nearly 1K customers now run its core Business Suite on Hana (up from 800). But no Hana revenue figure is given; Hana revenue rose 61% in 2013 to €633M.
- Cloud billings rose 23% Y/Y to €228M (36% exc. forex), and the cloud deferred revenue balance 20% to €454M (29% exc. forex).
- In spite of the Q1 miss, SAP is reiterating its full-year revenue and op. profit forecasts.
- Q1 results, PR
Thu, Apr. 17, 6:10 AM
Thu, Apr. 17, 12:05 AM
Wed, Apr. 16, 5:30 PM
Tue, Apr. 15, 7:03 PM
- Microsoft's (MSFT) new Azure Intelligent Systems Service allows companies to capture and manage machine data from various embedded devices and sensors, regardless of the OS they use. The service aims to enable Web-connected embedded platforms in verticals such as retail, health, manufacturing, and transportation.
- IT outsourcing firms Cognizant and Infosys are among Microsoft's service partners. Intel and ARM are already going after this market by via solutions that combine their CPU designs with related software.
- Microsoft is also unveiling its Analytics Platform System, a hardware appliance (to be sold by OEMs) that allows data handled by SQL Server's data warehousing solution (used to process/analyze structured data) and the Hadoop big data framework (used for giant unstructured datasets) to be integrated and jointly queried.
- Satya Nadella calls the solution "big data in a box." Teradata (TDC) and Informatica (INFA) are among the companies in Microsoft's crosshairs.
- SQL Server 2014 has also been launched. As promised, the latest update to Microsoft's database platform (produces $5B+/year in sales) features in-memory capabilities that arguably make it a meaningful rival to SAP's popular Hana in-memory database.
- While going over the products, Nadella declares Microsoft needs to create a "data culture" to thrive, in part by using its own products. "Think of Office as the canvas, or the surface area, or the scaffolding from which you can access the data."
Mon, Apr. 14, 7:07 PM
- An April Barclays survey of 100 U.S. and European CIOs found 46% expecting their company's IT spending to rise in 1H14, 20% expecting it to drop, and 34% expecting no change. Those figures compare with September survey levels of 43%, 27%, and 30%.
- Moreover, IT spending growth is seen accelerating in 2H in both the U.S. and Europe. Barclays thinks larger budgets, macro stabilization, and a need for equipment refreshes (due to high utilization rates) could be helping out.
- At the same time, the firm cautions the spending growth is uneven: Software, networking, security, and cloud services demand is healthy, but servers, storage, and IT services remain soft. Interest in the concept of a software-defined data center is gaining traction, but big data (hyped considerably last year) is losing it for now.
- Gartner has forecast IT spending will rise 3.2% this year to $3.77T after growing just 0.4% in 2013. Enterprise software (+6.9% to $320B) is expected to lead the way.
- Barclays thinks its survey bodes well for H-P (HPQ), Juniper (JNPR), F5 (FFIV), Aruba (ARUN), Ingram Micro (IM), and CDW, each of which is rated Overweight.
- Others that might take heart in the survey results: CSCO, ORCL, SAP, CA, SWI, VMW, CHKP, BRCD, ARW, AVT
Tue, Apr. 8, 6:27 PM
- SAP's Business Suite, which includes the software giant's mainstay ERP apps, will soon be available via cloud subscriptions. The apps will be offered through SAP's Hana Cloud platform (launched last year), which already runs a slew of SAP and 3rd-party apps on top of the company's Hana in-memory database.
- In addition to ERP apps, Business Suite features CRM and supply-chain management apps. Whereas many enterprises have embraced cloud CRM solutions, they've generally preferred to keep mission-critical ERP apps onsite.
- Nonetheless, NetSuite (N) has had some success selling its cloud ERP solution to mid-sized businesses, and Workday (WDAY) has reeled in enterprise buyers for its cloud financials software (different from an end-to-end ERP suite). SAP's move presents the companies with fresh competition, but could also serve to validate the broader market.
- Aided by the Ariba acquisition, SAP's cloud subscription/support revenue rose 121% in 2013 to €758M; all other software sales rose only 3% to €4.52B. The company is aiming for €3B-€3.5B in total 2017 cloud-related revenue.
Wed, Mar. 26, 10:47 AM
- SAP (SAP +0.5%) is buying Fieldglass, a top provider of cloud software for obtaining/managing contingent labor and services. The company plans to combine Fieldglass' software with Ariba's cloud procurement offerings and its SuccessFactors' cloud HR products to "deliver a platform for businesses to manage their entire workforce both temporary and permanent staff."
- Terms are undisclosed. However, Bloomberg reported shortly before SAP issued a PR that the company would be announcing a $1B+ acquisition.
- The acquisition comes as SAP strikes a reseller deal with Adobe (ADBE -0.9%) related to the latter's Marketing Cloud online ad tech platform. Marketing Cloud (sales +24% Y/Y in the Feb. quarter to $267M, was just refreshed) will be packaged with SAP's Hana in-memory database and hybris e-commerce infrastructure software to marketers.
- Given Adobe bought marketing automation software vendor Neolane last year and folded its products into Marketing Cloud, the partnership might lower the odds SAP will make a bid for Marketo (MKTO -1.3%) or another marketing automation firm, as many have expected.
Thu, Mar. 20, 3:52 PM
- SAP's (SAP -0.7%) executive and supervisory boards recommend shareholders approve a €1/share ($1.38/share) dividend for fiscal 2013. The figure represents an 18% hike from 2012's €0.85/share dividend, and spells a 1.8% yield and 36% payout ratio. (PR)
- The enterprise software giant hold its annual meeting on May 21. Its 2013 dividend will be paid on or after May 22.
Wed, Mar. 19, 4:07 PM
- Even as equities closed lower following the FOMC and Janet Yellen's remarks, H-P (HPQ +3.5%) is at levels last seen in 2011 (before the Autonomy deal and Palm write-down) ahead of its 5PM ET annual meeting.
- Citing Autonomy and the aborted PC spinoff, advisory firm Glass Lewis opposes the re-election of directors Marc Andreessen, Rajiv Gupta, and (ex-chairman) Ray Lane. All 11 H-P directors were re-elected last year even though advisory firm ISS opposed three of them (inc. Lane).
- optionMONSTER observes H-P has seen strong short-term call-buying activity; 19K+ March 30.50 contracts (safely in the money after today's move) changed hands yesterday.
- This morning, H-P announced a new integrated server/storage/networking system optimized for SAP's (SAP -0.9%) popular Hana in-memory database. The system, which has a steep starting price of $87.8K, comes ahead of the launch of Project Kraken, an H-P server that aims to run Hana with 3x as much memory as rival offerings.
- Yesterday: H-P rises on Barclays upgrade
Mon, Mar. 17, 9:43 AM
- VMware (VMW +2.2%) has been started at Buy by Monness Crespi.
- SAP (SAP +2.2%) has been upgraded to Buy by Citi.
- VeriSign (VRSN -8.8%) has been cut to Market Perform by Cowen. The downgrade comes as the NTIA announces it will relinquish control of the Internet's domain name management system to an international body. VeriSign insists the move won't affect its operation of the .com and .net registries.
- CommVault (CVLT +3.3%) has been upgraded to Buy by Mizuho.
- RingCentral (RNG +4.5%) has been started at Outperform by William Blair.
- NetScout (NTCT +0.1%) has been cut to Neutral by D.A. Davidson.
- RPX (RPXC +3%) has been started at Outperform by Cowen.
- Cadence (CDNS +1.4%) has been started at Overweight by Piper.
Tue, Feb. 18, 5:21 PM
- Graham Younger, the head of SAP's SuccessFactors cloud HR software unit, is leaving the company to become the head of field operations for enterprise cloud storage/file-sharing upstart Box.
- The move comes less than a month after Quartz reported Box, which SAP's VC arm has invested in, has confidentially filed for an IPO.
- SAP bought SuccessFactors for $3.4B in 2012. Lars Dalgaard, SuccessFactors's CEO at the time of the acquisition (and later the head of SAP's cloud ops), left SAP last year.
- SAP's cloud subscription/support revenue rose 32% Y/Y in Q4 to €210M, while its traditional software sales fell 2% to €1.9B.
Fri, Jan. 24, 9:45 AM
- SAP (SAP -1.5%) has been cut to Hold by Argus and Berenberg. The software giant posted mixed Q4 results and offered cautious guidance earlier this week.
- Mellanox (MLNX -5.9%) has been cut to Underweight by Barclays ahead of Wednesday's Q4 report.
- Angie's List (ANGI +0.2%) has been upgraded to Buy by B. Riley. Q4 results arrive on Feb. 12.
- FireEye (FEYE -4.7%) has been cut to Equal Weight by Barclays following a massive run-up in the wake of the Mandiant deal.
- Fairchild (FCS -4.6%) has been cut to Underperform by BofA/Merrill a day after delivering mixed Q4 results and forecasting a Q1 gross margin decline. Deutsche cut shares to Hold yesterday.
Wed, Jan. 22, 9:45 AM
- VMware (VMW -1.2%), parent EMC (EMC -1.3%), Citrix (CTXS -2%), and SAP (SAP -1.5%) are all lower following news of VMware's $1.54B acquisition of leading mobile device management (MDM) software firm AirWatch.
- Citrix (thanks to the Zenprise acquisition) and SAP (through its Sybase unit) compete with AirWatch. As does BlackBerry (BBRY +4.6%), which remains higher following news of its real estate sale plans.
- AirWatch's products, which also include mobile app management and security solutions, complement VMware's Horizon Workspace, which provides a secure, siloed workspace for business apps and files on mobile devices. With Citrix and SAP already offering an array of complementary mobile software tools for enterprises, VMware's move is in part an attempt to keep pace.
- AirWatch, Citrix, SAP, and BlackBerry, along with other firms such as IBM (previous) and Good Technology, are trying to profit from growing enterprise interest in MDM solutions, which help companies cope with the ongoing bring-your-own-device (BYOD) trend.
- In tandem with the acquisition, VMware has reported preliminary Q4 revenue of $1.48B (+15% Y/Y), slightly above a $1.47B consensus. Q4 license revenue is expected to come in at $$687M (+15%), within a guidance range for 12%-16% growth. VMware's full Q4 results are due on Jan. 28.
Tue, Jan. 21, 5:44 AM
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