Trefis • Wed, Jan. 21
- SAP reported detailed fourth quarter and full year earnings on Tuesday.
- The company beat its revenue guidance on the back of explosive growth in its cloud business and the continued success of SAP HANA.
- We are currently revising our $86 price estimate for SAP to reflect 2014 results.
- SAP CMO of Cloud and Concur EVP of Marketing talk strategy.
- Near-term: Sharp customer focus.
- Mid-term: Accelerated Concur R&D.
- Long-term: Concur integrated with SAP's Cloud Offerings.
- Challenge: SAP cloud revenue run rate remains tiny versus topline revenue.
3 Reasons Why SAP's Weakness Is A Buying OpportunityRenu Singh • Nov. 6, 2014
- SAP is changing its business model for the better, as this will allow the company to bring more customers into its fold, apart from establishing a consistent revenue stream.
- SAP has been dominating the ERP space, and it is getting better by moving into rivals' territory with the help of its cost-efficient products.
- SAP is smartly growing its business by cross-selling its newly-acquired products to its old customers, while the IBM deal can expand its reach further.
SAP Lowers FY14 Profit Guidance On Faster Cloud Expansion
- SAP reported lower-than-expected earnings in the 3rd quarter of 2014. Total revenue for the software industry giant amounted to $5.4 billion for the quarter.
- SAP is now refocusing its business towards cloud-based technology, and there is expected to be increased pressure on short-term margins for the company.
- SAP has made several acquisitions, along with additions to its business, in an effort to move forward with the expansion of cloud-based technology.
- Investors are having trouble adjusting to the new subscription-based model that is a feature of cloud technologies.
- Investment in the company is definitely an attractive prospect, especially for long-term investors.
The Concur Acquisition In Context: A SaaS MegaExit
- SAP's acquisition of Concur Technologies looks to destroy shareholder value under any reasonable scenario.
- While difficult to assess, assuming SAP's cloud business is unprofitable, it appears that SAP's Successfactors and Ariba transactions have also destroyed shareholder value.
- Despite having a strong core business and selling at only 15x 2015 estimated earnings, the author is selling his shares.
- SAP HANA, short for High Performance Analytic Appliance, is the company's flagship in-memory database product launched in November 2010.
- The collaboration with HP and Accenture is a strong attempt from SAP to push forward with its HANA platform as the de-facto industry standard for in-memory application deployments.
- HANA has seen good traction, with fiscal 2013 revenues reaching approximately €664 million (~$882 million).
Factors Responsible For Our $95 SAP Price EstimateTrefis • May. 15, 2014
- We believe the company's management team has the capability to drive revenue growth and execute margin expansion through fiscal 2017.
- Subscription-based deployments, including software solutions such as Business Suite and Business Warehouse, and the HANA in-memory database module, should resonate well with customers.
- Margin targets are expected to be met thanks to lower cost of revenues and a realigned business structure to accommodate the shift to cloud offerings.
Weak Profitability Guidance Should Not Depress SAP's Stock Price
Sep. 19, 2014, 11:23 AM
- SAP (SAP -3.9%) investors have a case of sticker shock after the company agreed to pay $8.3B (to be financed through a credit facility) to buy cloud travel/expense management software leader Concur Technologies. The acquisition price is equal to 9.6x Concur's estimated FY15 (ends Sep. '15) sales.
- On the other hand, enterprise cloud software names are rallying on hopes of fresh deal activity. CRM +1.5%. N +2.7%. NOW +2.6%. PAYC +5%. ULTI +2.2%. JIVE +1.8%. DWRE +1.8%. MKTO +1.7%.
- SAP CEO Bill McDermott proclaims combining Concur's products with Ariba's cloud procurement/B2B marketplace offerings and Fieldglass' cloud labor-management software will help his company redefine "how businesses conduct commerce across goods and services, contingent workforces, travel and entertainment."
- McDermott also praises Concur's corporate travel ecosystem, which includes Hertz, Delta, Expedia, Sabre, and many others, and sees an opportunity to create real-time travel collaboration tools running on SAP's Hana in-memory database. SAP notes only 30% of Concur customers are currently SAP clients, yielding plenty of cross-selling opportunities.
Sep. 18, 2014, 5:24 PM
- SAP is paying $129/share, or an enterprise value of $8.3B, to acquire top cloud travel/expense management software vendor Concur Technologies (NASDAQ:CNQR). The price represents a 20% premium to Concur's Thursday close.
- The deal is expected to close in Q4 2014 or Q1 2015, and will be financed using a €7B credit facility. SAP notes Concur claims 23K+ customers and 25M+ active users.
- The purchase is the latest in a string of major cloud software acquisitions by SAP, which is counting on cloud growth to offset slumping traditional license sales. Other major cloud-related purchases include SuccessFactors, Ariba, and hybris.
- Previous: Concur reportedly approached SAP, Oracle about acquisition
Sep. 2, 2014, 5:28 PM
- Concur (NASDAQ:CNQR) approached SAP and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) to "gauge their interest" in an acquisition, sources tell Bloomberg. Oracle, set to buy point-of-sale hardware vendor Micros for $5.3B, is said to have passed.
- No details are given on SAP's reaction. Back in January, the German software giant suggested it could make another big cloud software acquisition - it already has a few under its belt. But in April, SAP, which is counting on cloud growth to offset slumping traditional license sales, stated it considers itself under no pressure to make a deal.
- Concur has pared its AH gains: The cloud travel/expense software provider is now up 11%. Its market cap stands at $6.4B.
- Earlier: Concur reportedly exploring sale
May. 27, 2014, 10:08 AM
- Germany's Der Aktionär reports SAP (SAP +2.1%) might be looking to acquire Tibco (TIBX +5.5%). The latter's shares have jumped in response.
- Buying Tibco would strengthen SAP's middleware offerings - IBM/Oracle have a big chunk of the market - and also provide it with an analytics/data visualization platform (Spotfire) to complement its Hana in-memory database.
- But an acquisition price would likely be north of $4B, and Spotfire has been struggling lately amid tough competition from Tableau and others.
- On Twitter, Germantrader suggests taking the report cautiously, calling it "guesswork" and stating Der Aktionär "is not trusted in Germany."
- SAP has suggested it could make some large deals, as cloud competition pressures its on-premise software license sales. Recent purchases include marketing software firm SeeWhy and labor-management software firm Fieldglass.
May. 20, 2014, 11:30 AM
- Acquisition-hungry SAP's (SAP -0.3%) latest buyout target is SeeWhy, a top provider of behavior-analysis online marketing software. Terms are undisclosed.
- SeeWhy's products monitor/analyze the activity of online/mobile shoppers, and use their findings to deliver personalized e-mail follow-ups and targeted ads. Its offerings complement those of SAP's hybris unit, a leading provider of e-commerce infrastructure software (acquired last year, possibly for $1B+).
- Demandware (DWRE -1.5%), which competes against SAP/hybris, has a partnership with SeeWhy that could be affected by the deal.
- SAP's move comes two months after the company struck a partnership with Adobe's Marketing Cloud online ad tech unit, and announced it's buying cloud labor-management software vendor Fieldglass.
Mar. 26, 2014, 10:47 AM
- SAP (SAP +0.5%) is buying Fieldglass, a top provider of cloud software for obtaining/managing contingent labor and services. The company plans to combine Fieldglass' software with Ariba's cloud procurement offerings and its SuccessFactors' cloud HR products to "deliver a platform for businesses to manage their entire workforce both temporary and permanent staff."
- Terms are undisclosed. However, Bloomberg reported shortly before SAP issued a PR that the company would be announcing a $1B+ acquisition.
- The acquisition comes as SAP strikes a reseller deal with Adobe (ADBE -0.9%) related to the latter's Marketing Cloud online ad tech platform. Marketing Cloud (sales +24% Y/Y in the Feb. quarter to $267M, was just refreshed) will be packaged with SAP's Hana in-memory database and hybris e-commerce infrastructure software to marketers.
- Given Adobe bought marketing automation software vendor Neolane last year and folded its products into Marketing Cloud, the partnership might lower the odds SAP will make a bid for Marketo (MKTO -1.3%) or another marketing automation firm, as many have expected.
Jan. 22, 2014, 9:45 AM
- VMware (VMW -1.2%), parent EMC (EMC -1.3%), Citrix (CTXS -2%), and SAP (SAP -1.5%) are all lower following news of VMware's $1.54B acquisition of leading mobile device management (MDM) software firm AirWatch.
- Citrix (thanks to the Zenprise acquisition) and SAP (through its Sybase unit) compete with AirWatch. As does BlackBerry (BBRY +4.6%), which remains higher following news of its real estate sale plans.
- AirWatch's products, which also include mobile app management and security solutions, complement VMware's Horizon Workspace, which provides a secure, siloed workspace for business apps and files on mobile devices. With Citrix and SAP already offering an array of complementary mobile software tools for enterprises, VMware's move is in part an attempt to keep pace.
- AirWatch, Citrix, SAP, and BlackBerry, along with other firms such as IBM (previous) and Good Technology, are trying to profit from growing enterprise interest in MDM solutions, which help companies cope with the ongoing bring-your-own-device (BYOD) trend.
- In tandem with the acquisition, VMware has reported preliminary Q4 revenue of $1.48B (+15% Y/Y), slightly above a $1.47B consensus. Q4 license revenue is expected to come in at $$687M (+15%), within a guidance range for 12%-16% growth. VMware's full Q4 results are due on Jan. 28.
Dec. 20, 2013, 6:21 PM
- Responsys (MKTG +40.4%) closed today at $27.40, $0.40 above Oracle's (ORCL -0.6%) $27/share acquisition price. Meanwhile, fellow cloud marketing automation software firms Marketo (MKTO +11.3%) and Constant Contact (CTCT +6.8%) closed up sharply.
- Sources tell the WSJ SAP (SAP +0.8%) was "among the final bidders" for Responsys before Responsys decided to sell to Oracle. An analyst talking to the paper thinks Responsys' trading price suggests investors are betting on an SAP counteroffer arriving.
- FBR, on the other hand, thinks Oracle's deal could lead either SAP or NetSuite (N +2.2%) to acquire Marketo. Both SAP (courtesy of the hybris acquisition) and NetSuite (via its SuiteCommerce platform) are major players in e-commerce infrastructure software, but neither have leading positions in online marketing automation.
- Forrester argues Oracle's move will improve the company's "capable but otherwise moribund" marketing software lineup. Goldman notes Oracle is paying 8x Responsys' recurring annual revenue - a steep multiple, but less than the 11x it paid for Eloqua.
Oct. 28, 2013, 1:27 PM
- "Blackberry doesn't fit with our strategy," says SAP (SAP +0.6%) CFO Werner Brandt, shooting down reports the German software giant is interested in parts of BlackBerry (BBRY -0.2%). Cisco, Samsung, and Google have also been reported to be interested in acquiring some of the struggling smartphone vendor's assets.
- Meanwhile, the new Android/iOS BBM apps has received a harsh review from The Verge, and a muted review from The Inquirer. The former only gave the apps a score of 5.0/10, while criticizing their "ugly design" and the absence of features offered by rival mobile messaging services, such as voice calls, video chats, and location sharing. The latter likes the apps' "reasonably smooth" UI and invite features, but sees them having trouble standing out in a crowded landscape.
- Also: Complaints have come in about fake BBM reviews on Google Play, where the app maintains a user rating of 4.2/5 stars. BlackBerry says it had nothing to do with the fake reviews.
- Previous: BBM Android/iOS downloads top 10M
Oct. 24, 2013, 12:09 AM
- Ahead of tomorrow's Q3 report, NetSuite (N) has struck a deal to acquire TribeHR, a developer of cloud HR apps aimed at SMBs. NetSuite plans to fuse the startup's offerings with its SMB-focused cloud ERP apps.
- "Really there has been no HR offering in the mid-market," states NetSuite CEO Zach Nelson (a little hyperbolically). He sees an intergrated ERP/HR solution allowing SMBs to do away with manual HR processes, and also talks up the value of TribeHR's social/collaboration tools.
- The purchase means NetSuite will compete more with Workday (WDAY), which leads the cloud HR market and also offers cloud ERP software. But Workday has a stronger focus on large enterprises. Ultimate Software (ULTI), Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD), and Paylocity (reportedly eying an IPO) also compete in cloud HR.
- Separately, NetSuite and others see an opportunity for the company to poach clients from SAP's SMB-focused Business ByDesign cloud apps, which the German software giant has decided to pare its investments in. NetSuite has launched a Business ByDesign migration program.
- SAP has reportedly invested €3B in Business ByDesign development over 7 years, but the platform has never generated more than €23M/year in sales in 3 years of availability. Business ByDesign resources will be shifted towards SAP's Hana Cloud, which runs cloud apps on top of the popular Hana in-memory database.
Oct. 9, 2013, 6:50 PM
- Bloomberg reports BlackBerry (BBRY) is "more open to a breakup" as doubts continue to swirl Fairfax Financial will be able to obtain the funding needed for its $9/share bid to succeed.
- The news service adds SAP, Cisco (CSCO), and Samsung (SSNLF.PK, SSNGY.OB) were "approached last week by BlackBerry advisers," and indicated they’re "only interested in parts of the company." That provides a bit of color to Saturday's Reuters report.
- Intel (INTC) is said to be open to bidding for BlackBerry's patents, but nothing else.
- BBRY -1.4% AH
- Earlier: Canadian pension fund still weighing BlackBerry investment
Oct. 5, 2013, 12:25 PM
- Blackberry (BBRY) is in talks with Cisco Systems (CSCO), Google (GOOG), and SAP (SAP) about selling itself whole or piecemeal according to "several sources," Reuters reports.
- The strategic buyer route provides an alternative to Fairfax's $9/share bid (~$4.7B), which some speculate has little chance of securing financing. P-E firm Cerberus has also expressed interest in the ailing company.
- According to sources, potential corporate buyers have been "especially interested in BlackBerry's secure server network and patent portfolio, although doubts about the assets' value remains an issue." Analysts believe Blackberry's security-focused messaging system could be worth $3B-$4.5B, and its patent trove $2B-$3B. However, a company filing disclosed that the value of its patent portfolio and licensing agreements could halve in the next 18 months.
- TechCrunch speculates that "an enterprise-focused bidder — such as SAP or Cisco — might make the best fit for BlackBerry’s security-focused messaging handset business at this point, with the consumer smartphone marketplace now primarily centred on Android and iOS."
Aug. 2, 2013, 11:04 AM
- Sources tell BloombergBusinessweek SAP has considered buying Jive (JIVE +2.6%) in recent months, along with other companies.
- There doesn't appear to be any new information about SAP/Jive in this column, relative to a May report stating SAP considered acquiring the enterprise social networking software firm, but decided not to due to product overlap concerns.
- BloombergBusinessweek also observes SAP is rapidly expanding its Silicon Valley presence. The German software giant has spent $7.6B to acquire Valley software firms SuccessFactors and Ariba, and its Palo Alto-based VC arm has invested $700M+ in startups, including enterprise cloud storage high-flyer Box.
Jun. 5, 2013, 6:14 PM"Educated guesses" put the price tag for SAP's purchase of hybris around $1.2B-$1.5B, says AllThingsD's Arik Hesseldahl. BMO believes the deal makes SAP a top-3 e-commerce software vendor, along with Oracle and IBM, and others see similarities between SAP's plans to create an end-to-end CRM software platform for analyzing retailer data and engaging with customers across channels, and Salesforce's (CRM) attempts to create an end-to-end cloud marketing platform with the help of ExactTarget. Discussing the deal, co-CEO Bill McDermott stated SAP wants to provide "everything a CEO needs to run a corporation in full intimacy with their consumer" in real-time. | Comment!
Jun. 5, 2013, 10:05 AMSAP expands its cloud software arsenal by acquiring hybris, a top provider of e-commerce infrastructure software, for an undisclosed sum. The deal comes 8 months after SAP bought top B2B marketplace provider Ariba. SAP argues hybris' software, which covers Web, mobile, and in-store channels, will improve "customer insight and engagement" when paired with its Hana in-memory database and Jam social networking software. The deal could spell tougher competition for hybris rivals Demandware (DWRE -0.5%) and NetSuite (N -0.4%). SAP could also end up competing with IBM, which has been making acquisitions to bolster its Smarter Commerce initiative. | 1 Comment
May. 24, 2013, 2:10 PM
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