Trefis • Wed, Jan. 21
- SAP reported detailed fourth quarter and full year earnings on Tuesday.
- The company beat its revenue guidance on the back of explosive growth in its cloud business and the continued success of SAP HANA.
- We are currently revising our $86 price estimate for SAP to reflect 2014 results.
- SAP CMO of Cloud and Concur EVP of Marketing talk strategy.
- Near-term: Sharp customer focus.
- Mid-term: Accelerated Concur R&D.
- Long-term: Concur integrated with SAP's Cloud Offerings.
- Challenge: SAP cloud revenue run rate remains tiny versus topline revenue.
3 Reasons Why SAP's Weakness Is A Buying OpportunityRenu Singh • Nov. 6, 2014
- SAP is changing its business model for the better, as this will allow the company to bring more customers into its fold, apart from establishing a consistent revenue stream.
- SAP has been dominating the ERP space, and it is getting better by moving into rivals' territory with the help of its cost-efficient products.
- SAP is smartly growing its business by cross-selling its newly-acquired products to its old customers, while the IBM deal can expand its reach further.
SAP Lowers FY14 Profit Guidance On Faster Cloud Expansion
- SAP reported lower-than-expected earnings in the 3rd quarter of 2014. Total revenue for the software industry giant amounted to $5.4 billion for the quarter.
- SAP is now refocusing its business towards cloud-based technology, and there is expected to be increased pressure on short-term margins for the company.
- SAP has made several acquisitions, along with additions to its business, in an effort to move forward with the expansion of cloud-based technology.
- Investors are having trouble adjusting to the new subscription-based model that is a feature of cloud technologies.
- Investment in the company is definitely an attractive prospect, especially for long-term investors.
The Concur Acquisition In Context: A SaaS MegaExit
- SAP's acquisition of Concur Technologies looks to destroy shareholder value under any reasonable scenario.
- While difficult to assess, assuming SAP's cloud business is unprofitable, it appears that SAP's Successfactors and Ariba transactions have also destroyed shareholder value.
- Despite having a strong core business and selling at only 15x 2015 estimated earnings, the author is selling his shares.
- SAP HANA, short for High Performance Analytic Appliance, is the company's flagship in-memory database product launched in November 2010.
- The collaboration with HP and Accenture is a strong attempt from SAP to push forward with its HANA platform as the de-facto industry standard for in-memory application deployments.
- HANA has seen good traction, with fiscal 2013 revenues reaching approximately €664 million (~$882 million).
Factors Responsible For Our $95 SAP Price EstimateTrefis • May. 15, 2014
- We believe the company's management team has the capability to drive revenue growth and execute margin expansion through fiscal 2017.
- Subscription-based deployments, including software solutions such as Business Suite and Business Warehouse, and the HANA in-memory database module, should resonate well with customers.
- Margin targets are expected to be met thanks to lower cost of revenues and a realigned business structure to accommodate the shift to cloud offerings.
Weak Profitability Guidance Should Not Depress SAP's Stock Price
Tue, Jan. 20, 9:16 AM
Mon, Jan. 12, 10:34 AM
- SAP reports non-IFRS preliminary Q4 revenue of €5.47B ($6.45B), +7% Y/Y (+4% at constant currency) and above a €5.37B consensus. Q3 growth was 5% in both euros and constant currency.
- Q4 growth was fueled by a 72% Y/Y increase in cloud subscription/support revenue (boosted by the Concur deal, which closed on Dec. 4) to €360M. Traditional software license revenue -2% to €1.87B; support revenue (driven by past software deals) +10% to €2.51B. Cloud billings +115% to €591M.
- Op. profit +1% (-2% at constant currency) to €2.13B, and op. margin -210 bps to 38.9%. For the whole of 2014, revenue rose 4% to €17.56B ($20.7B), and op. profit fell 3% to €4.33B.
- Full Q4 results, along with SAP's 2015 outlook, are due on Jan. 20.
Mon, Jan. 5, 9:57 AM
- With Greece and oil-related fears once more taking a toll, The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 2.1%, and many continental indices posting ~2% declines. U.S.-traded European tech and telecom names are performing much the same way.
- Tech decliners: NOK -4.2%. ALU -3.3%. SAP -2.9%. STM -2%.
- Telecom decliners: VOD -2.4%. TEF -4%. ORAN -3.6%. TI -2.2%. PT -6%.
Sep. 19, 2014, 11:23 AM
- SAP (SAP -3.9%) investors have a case of sticker shock after the company agreed to pay $8.3B (to be financed through a credit facility) to buy cloud travel/expense management software leader Concur Technologies. The acquisition price is equal to 9.6x Concur's estimated FY15 (ends Sep. '15) sales.
- On the other hand, enterprise cloud software names are rallying on hopes of fresh deal activity. CRM +1.5%. N +2.7%. NOW +2.6%. PAYC +5%. ULTI +2.2%. JIVE +1.8%. DWRE +1.8%. MKTO +1.7%.
- SAP CEO Bill McDermott proclaims combining Concur's products with Ariba's cloud procurement/B2B marketplace offerings and Fieldglass' cloud labor-management software will help his company redefine "how businesses conduct commerce across goods and services, contingent workforces, travel and entertainment."
- McDermott also praises Concur's corporate travel ecosystem, which includes Hertz, Delta, Expedia, Sabre, and many others, and sees an opportunity to create real-time travel collaboration tools running on SAP's Hana in-memory database. SAP notes only 30% of Concur customers are currently SAP clients, yielding plenty of cross-selling opportunities.
Sep. 18, 2014, 5:24 PM
- SAP is paying $129/share, or an enterprise value of $8.3B, to acquire top cloud travel/expense management software vendor Concur Technologies (NASDAQ:CNQR). The price represents a 20% premium to Concur's Thursday close.
- The deal is expected to close in Q4 2014 or Q1 2015, and will be financed using a €7B credit facility. SAP notes Concur claims 23K+ customers and 25M+ active users.
- The purchase is the latest in a string of major cloud software acquisitions by SAP, which is counting on cloud growth to offset slumping traditional license sales. Other major cloud-related purchases include SuccessFactors, Ariba, and hybris.
- Previous: Concur reportedly approached SAP, Oracle about acquisition
Sep. 2, 2014, 5:28 PM
- Concur (NASDAQ:CNQR) approached SAP and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) to "gauge their interest" in an acquisition, sources tell Bloomberg. Oracle, set to buy point-of-sale hardware vendor Micros for $5.3B, is said to have passed.
- No details are given on SAP's reaction. Back in January, the German software giant suggested it could make another big cloud software acquisition - it already has a few under its belt. But in April, SAP, which is counting on cloud growth to offset slumping traditional license sales, stated it considers itself under no pressure to make a deal.
- Concur has pared its AH gains: The cloud travel/expense software provider is now up 11%. Its market cap stands at $6.4B.
- Earlier: Concur reportedly exploring sale
May. 27, 2014, 10:08 AM
- Germany's Der Aktionär reports SAP (SAP +2.1%) might be looking to acquire Tibco (TIBX +5.5%). The latter's shares have jumped in response.
- Buying Tibco would strengthen SAP's middleware offerings - IBM/Oracle have a big chunk of the market - and also provide it with an analytics/data visualization platform (Spotfire) to complement its Hana in-memory database.
- But an acquisition price would likely be north of $4B, and Spotfire has been struggling lately amid tough competition from Tableau and others.
- On Twitter, Germantrader suggests taking the report cautiously, calling it "guesswork" and stating Der Aktionär "is not trusted in Germany."
- SAP has suggested it could make some large deals, as cloud competition pressures its on-premise software license sales. Recent purchases include marketing software firm SeeWhy and labor-management software firm Fieldglass.
May. 8, 2014, 2:16 PM
- Shortly after SAP (SAP -2.4%) announced senior product development exec/executive board member Vishal Sikka is leaving, re/code has reported cloud software chief Shawn Price has been fired.
- Sources state Price won't be replaced, as SAP tries to portray its cloud ops as an integral part of its business rather than a separate unit. SuccessFactors (cloud HR software) chief Graham Younger left in February.
- Re/code also states Americas chief Rodolpho Carduento is being reassigned - he'll now head SAP's partner ecosystem efforts - and that the Americas unit will be split into North and Latin American segments.
- The changes come as co-CEO Bill McDermott gets set to become sole CEO following SAP's May 21 annual meeting. In an interview, McDermott insists SAP's core strategy isn't changing.
- He also talks up the ability of its Hana in-memory database, whose development was spearheaded Sikka, to cut the time needed to analyze customer data. "We're talking about radical improvements in speed and understanding of what's going on with the customer, and wiping out indexes and aggregates when it comes to financial reporting."
May. 5, 2014, 7:58 AM
- Vishal Sikka, a senior SAP product development exec and the software giant's "executive board member for products and innovation," has left for "personal reasons."
- Customer operations chief Robert Enslin and app development chief Bernd Leukert will join the executive board. Two other execs, Stefan Ries an Helen Arnold, will be joining the managing board. Ries is SAP's HR chief, an Arnold has just been appointed CIO.
- Sikka's bio declares him to have "global responsibility for development and delivery of all products across SAP’s product portfolio," as well as for "design and end-user experience." Among other things, he spearheaded the development of SAP's very successful Hana in-memory database.
- There was speculation Sikka could be named CEO down the road. Co-CEO Bill McDermott is set to become sole CEO this month.
- The shakeup comes ahead of SAP's June 3-5 SapphireNow conference. It follows the February departure of Graham Younger, the head of SAP's SuccessFactors cloud HR software unit. Shares are down 2.4% in Frankfurt.
Apr. 17, 2014, 11:42 AM
- Though SAP's (SAP -2.1%) non-IFRS cloud subscription/support revenue rose 32% Y/Y in Q1 (even with Q4's rate) to €221M, its traditional software license revenue fell 5% to €623M after growing 1% in Q4.
- Much like archrival Oracle's 2013 license revenue misses, the latter figure is bound to trigger fears about the impact of cloud software competition.
- Support revenue (driven by software licenses, relatively steady) rose 5% Y/Y to €2.21B, and all other revenue fell 8% to €643M. Opex rose just 2% Y/Y.
- A strong euro took a toll: Whereas revenue and op. profit each rose 2% Y/Y at current exchange rates, they've would've risen 6% and 7% at constant currency. SAP expects a similar forex impact for the whole of 2014.
- SAP now has 3.2K+ Hana customers, up from 3K+ at the end of 2013, and nearly 1K customers now run its core Business Suite on Hana (up from 800). But no Hana revenue figure is given; Hana revenue rose 61% in 2013 to €633M.
- Cloud billings rose 23% Y/Y to €228M (36% exc. forex), and the cloud deferred revenue balance 20% to €454M (29% exc. forex).
- In spite of the Q1 miss, SAP is reiterating its full-year revenue and op. profit forecasts.
- Q1 results, PR
Mar. 19, 2014, 4:07 PM
- Even as equities closed lower following the FOMC and Janet Yellen's remarks, H-P (HPQ +3.5%) is at levels last seen in 2011 (before the Autonomy deal and Palm write-down) ahead of its 5PM ET annual meeting.
- Citing Autonomy and the aborted PC spinoff, advisory firm Glass Lewis opposes the re-election of directors Marc Andreessen, Rajiv Gupta, and (ex-chairman) Ray Lane. All 11 H-P directors were re-elected last year even though advisory firm ISS opposed three of them (inc. Lane).
- optionMONSTER observes H-P has seen strong short-term call-buying activity; 19K+ March 30.50 contracts (safely in the money after today's move) changed hands yesterday.
- This morning, H-P announced a new integrated server/storage/networking system optimized for SAP's (SAP -0.9%) popular Hana in-memory database. The system, which has a steep starting price of $87.8K, comes ahead of the launch of Project Kraken, an H-P server that aims to run Hana with 3x as much memory as rival offerings.
- Yesterday: H-P rises on Barclays upgrade
Mar. 17, 2014, 9:43 AM
- VMware (VMW +2.2%) has been started at Buy by Monness Crespi.
- SAP (SAP +2.2%) has been upgraded to Buy by Citi.
- VeriSign (VRSN -8.8%) has been cut to Market Perform by Cowen. The downgrade comes as the NTIA announces it will relinquish control of the Internet's domain name management system to an international body. VeriSign insists the move won't affect its operation of the .com and .net registries.
- CommVault (CVLT +3.3%) has been upgraded to Buy by Mizuho.
- RingCentral (RNG +4.5%) has been started at Outperform by William Blair.
- NetScout (NTCT +0.1%) has been cut to Neutral by D.A. Davidson.
- RPX (RPXC +3%) has been started at Outperform by Cowen.
- Cadence (CDNS +1.4%) has been started at Overweight by Piper.
Jan. 24, 2014, 9:45 AM
- SAP (SAP -1.5%) has been cut to Hold by Argus and Berenberg. The software giant posted mixed Q4 results and offered cautious guidance earlier this week.
- Mellanox (MLNX -5.9%) has been cut to Underweight by Barclays ahead of Wednesday's Q4 report.
- Angie's List (ANGI +0.2%) has been upgraded to Buy by B. Riley. Q4 results arrive on Feb. 12.
- FireEye (FEYE -4.7%) has been cut to Equal Weight by Barclays following a massive run-up in the wake of the Mandiant deal.
- Fairchild (FCS -4.6%) has been cut to Underperform by BofA/Merrill a day after delivering mixed Q4 results and forecasting a Q1 gross margin decline. Deutsche cut shares to Hold yesterday.
Jan. 22, 2014, 9:45 AM
- VMware (VMW -1.2%), parent EMC (EMC -1.3%), Citrix (CTXS -2%), and SAP (SAP -1.5%) are all lower following news of VMware's $1.54B acquisition of leading mobile device management (MDM) software firm AirWatch.
- Citrix (thanks to the Zenprise acquisition) and SAP (through its Sybase unit) compete with AirWatch. As does BlackBerry (BBRY +4.6%), which remains higher following news of its real estate sale plans.
- AirWatch's products, which also include mobile app management and security solutions, complement VMware's Horizon Workspace, which provides a secure, siloed workspace for business apps and files on mobile devices. With Citrix and SAP already offering an array of complementary mobile software tools for enterprises, VMware's move is in part an attempt to keep pace.
- AirWatch, Citrix, SAP, and BlackBerry, along with other firms such as IBM (previous) and Good Technology, are trying to profit from growing enterprise interest in MDM solutions, which help companies cope with the ongoing bring-your-own-device (BYOD) trend.
- In tandem with the acquisition, VMware has reported preliminary Q4 revenue of $1.48B (+15% Y/Y), slightly above a $1.47B consensus. Q4 license revenue is expected to come in at $$687M (+15%), within a guidance range for 12%-16% growth. VMware's full Q4 results are due on Jan. 28.
Jan. 14, 2014, 9:47 AM
- Intel (INTC +2.2%) has been upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan ahead of Thursday's Q4 report.
- Facebook (FB +1.1%) and Yelp (YELP +1.7%) have been started at Outperform by FBN as part of an Internet sector coverage launch. Facebook reports on Jan. 29.
- Nokia (NOK -1.1%) has been cut to Underperform by Raymond James. Q4 results arrive on Jan. 23.
- Juniper (JNPR -0.6%) has been upgraded to Outperform by Oppenheimer a day after Elliott Management disclosed a 6.2% stake and called for big changes.
- SAP (SAP -0.7%) has been cut to Underweight by Santander four days after releasing preliminary Q4 results. Pac Crest downgraded shares yesterday, albeit to little effect.
- Brocade (BRCD +2.5%) and VeriFone (PAY +4%) have been upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan.
- Jabil (JBL +5.1%) has been upgraded to Conviction Buy by Goldman. Shares cratered last month after the company provided disappointing guidance.
- ON Semi (ONNN +2.2%) has been upgraded to Outperform by Credit Suisse.
- Logitech (LOGI +2.8%) has been upgraded to Buy by Goldman.
- ChannelAdvisor (ECOM -5.5%) and Demandware (DWRE -2.1%) have been cut to Neutral by Goldman. Though offering different products/services, both companies cater to e-commerce firms.
- TripAdvisor (TRIP -2%) has been cut to Hold by Wunderlich.
- Mellanox (MLNX +3.5%) has been started at Outperform by Macquarie.
Jan. 8, 2014, 9:45 AM
- SAP (SAP +1.1%) has been upgraded to Buy by UBS. The upgrade follows news Bob Calderoni, the head of SAP's cloud services unit and formerly the head of SAP-acquired Ariba, has left the company, along with Ariba's current chief.
- Glu Mobile (GLUU +1.7%) has been started at Buy by Roth. Craig-Hallum upgraded shares yesterday.
- Ambarella (AMBA -9.1%) has been cut to Hold by Needham.
- Veeco (VECO -2.1%) has been cut to Hold by Berenberg a day after rallying sharply.
- Guidance Software (GUID +2%) has been upgraded to Buy by Benchmark.
- Itron (ITRI -2.6%) has been cut to Hold by Benchmark.
SAP vs. ETF Alternatives
Other News & PR