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SAP vs. ETF Alternatives
Thursday, Apr 1711:42 AM
Thursday, Apr 1711:42 AM| Comment!
- Though SAP's (SAP -2.1%) non-IFRS cloud subscription/support revenue rose 32% Y/Y in Q1 (even with Q4's rate) to €221M, its traditional software license revenue fell 5% to €623M after growing 1% in Q4.
- Much like archrival Oracle's 2013 license revenue misses, the latter figure is bound to trigger fears about the impact of cloud software competition.
- Support revenue (driven by software licenses, relatively steady) rose 5% Y/Y to €2.21B, and all other revenue fell 8% to €643M. Opex rose just 2% Y/Y.
- A strong euro took a toll: Whereas revenue and op. profit each rose 2% Y/Y at current exchange rates, they've would've risen 6% and 7% at constant currency. SAP expects a similar forex impact for the whole of 2014.
- SAP now has 3.2K+ Hana customers, up from 3K+ at the end of 2013, and nearly 1K customers now run its core Business Suite on Hana (up from 800). But no Hana revenue figure is given; Hana revenue rose 61% in 2013 to €633M.
- Cloud billings rose 23% Y/Y to €228M (36% exc. forex), and the cloud deferred revenue balance 20% to €454M (29% exc. forex).
- In spite of the Q1 miss, SAP is reiterating its full-year revenue and op. profit forecasts.
- Q1 results, PR
Wednesday, Mar 194:07 PM
Wednesday, Mar 194:07 PM| 2 Comments
- Even as equities closed lower following the FOMC and Janet Yellen's remarks, H-P (HPQ +3.5%) is at levels last seen in 2011 (before the Autonomy deal and Palm write-down) ahead of its 5PM ET annual meeting.
- Citing Autonomy and the aborted PC spinoff, advisory firm Glass Lewis opposes the re-election of directors Marc Andreessen, Rajiv Gupta, and (ex-chairman) Ray Lane. All 11 H-P directors were re-elected last year even though advisory firm ISS opposed three of them (inc. Lane).
- optionMONSTER observes H-P has seen strong short-term call-buying activity; 19K+ March 30.50 contracts (safely in the money after today's move) changed hands yesterday.
- This morning, H-P announced a new integrated server/storage/networking system optimized for SAP's (SAP -0.9%) popular Hana in-memory database. The system, which has a steep starting price of $87.8K, comes ahead of the launch of Project Kraken, an H-P server that aims to run Hana with 3x as much memory as rival offerings.
- Yesterday: H-P rises on Barclays upgrade
Monday, Mar 179:43 AM
Monday, Mar 179:43 AM| Comment!
- VMware (VMW +2.2%) has been started at Buy by Monness Crespi.
- SAP (SAP +2.2%) has been upgraded to Buy by Citi.
- VeriSign (VRSN -8.8%) has been cut to Market Perform by Cowen. The downgrade comes as the NTIA announces it will relinquish control of the Internet's domain name management system to an international body. VeriSign insists the move won't affect its operation of the .com and .net registries.
- CommVault (CVLT +3.3%) has been upgraded to Buy by Mizuho.
- RingCentral (RNG +4.5%) has been started at Outperform by William Blair.
- NetScout (NTCT +0.1%) has been cut to Neutral by D.A. Davidson.
- RPX (RPXC +3%) has been started at Outperform by Cowen.
- Cadence (CDNS +1.4%) has been started at Overweight by Piper.
Friday, Jan 249:45 AM
Friday, Jan 249:45 AM| Comment!
- SAP (SAP -1.5%) has been cut to Hold by Argus and Berenberg. The software giant posted mixed Q4 results and offered cautious guidance earlier this week.
- Mellanox (MLNX -5.9%) has been cut to Underweight by Barclays ahead of Wednesday's Q4 report.
- Angie's List (ANGI +0.2%) has been upgraded to Buy by B. Riley. Q4 results arrive on Feb. 12.
- FireEye (FEYE -4.7%) has been cut to Equal Weight by Barclays following a massive run-up in the wake of the Mandiant deal.
- Fairchild (FCS -4.6%) has been cut to Underperform by BofA/Merrill a day after delivering mixed Q4 results and forecasting a Q1 gross margin decline. Deutsche cut shares to Hold yesterday.
Wednesday, Jan 229:45 AM
Wednesday, Jan 229:45 AM| 5 Comments
- VMware (VMW -1.2%), parent EMC (EMC -1.3%), Citrix (CTXS -2%), and SAP (SAP -1.5%) are all lower following news of VMware's $1.54B acquisition of leading mobile device management (MDM) software firm AirWatch.
- Citrix (thanks to the Zenprise acquisition) and SAP (through its Sybase unit) compete with AirWatch. As does BlackBerry (BBRY +4.6%), which remains higher following news of its real estate sale plans.
- AirWatch's products, which also include mobile app management and security solutions, complement VMware's Horizon Workspace, which provides a secure, siloed workspace for business apps and files on mobile devices. With Citrix and SAP already offering an array of complementary mobile software tools for enterprises, VMware's move is in part an attempt to keep pace.
- AirWatch, Citrix, SAP, and BlackBerry, along with other firms such as IBM (previous) and Good Technology, are trying to profit from growing enterprise interest in MDM solutions, which help companies cope with the ongoing bring-your-own-device (BYOD) trend.
- In tandem with the acquisition, VMware has reported preliminary Q4 revenue of $1.48B (+15% Y/Y), slightly above a $1.47B consensus. Q4 license revenue is expected to come in at $$687M (+15%), within a guidance range for 12%-16% growth. VMware's full Q4 results are due on Jan. 28.
Tuesday, Jan 149:47 AM
Tuesday, Jan 149:47 AM| 24 Comments
- Intel (INTC +2.2%) has been upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan ahead of Thursday's Q4 report.
- Facebook (FB +1.1%) and Yelp (YELP +1.7%) have been started at Outperform by FBN as part of an Internet sector coverage launch. Facebook reports on Jan. 29.
- Nokia (NOK -1.1%) has been cut to Underperform by Raymond James. Q4 results arrive on Jan. 23.
- Juniper (JNPR -0.6%) has been upgraded to Outperform by Oppenheimer a day after Elliott Management disclosed a 6.2% stake and called for big changes.
- SAP (SAP -0.7%) has been cut to Underweight by Santander four days after releasing preliminary Q4 results. Pac Crest downgraded shares yesterday, albeit to little effect.
- Brocade (BRCD +2.5%) and VeriFone (PAY +4%) have been upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan.
- Jabil (JBL +5.1%) has been upgraded to Conviction Buy by Goldman. Shares cratered last month after the company provided disappointing guidance.
- ON Semi (ONNN +2.2%) has been upgraded to Outperform by Credit Suisse.
- Logitech (LOGI +2.8%) has been upgraded to Buy by Goldman.
- ChannelAdvisor (ECOM -5.5%) and Demandware (DWRE -2.1%) have been cut to Neutral by Goldman. Though offering different products/services, both companies cater to e-commerce firms.
- TripAdvisor (TRIP -2%) has been cut to Hold by Wunderlich.
- Mellanox (MLNX +3.5%) has been started at Outperform by Macquarie.
Wednesday, Jan 89:45 AM
Wednesday, Jan 89:45 AM| 3 Comments
- SAP (SAP +1.1%) has been upgraded to Buy by UBS. The upgrade follows news Bob Calderoni, the head of SAP's cloud services unit and formerly the head of SAP-acquired Ariba, has left the company, along with Ariba's current chief.
- Glu Mobile (GLUU +1.7%) has been started at Buy by Roth. Craig-Hallum upgraded shares yesterday.
- Ambarella (AMBA -9.1%) has been cut to Hold by Needham.
- Veeco (VECO -2.1%) has been cut to Hold by Berenberg a day after rallying sharply.
- Guidance Software (GUID +2%) has been upgraded to Buy by Benchmark.
- Itron (ITRI -2.6%) has been cut to Hold by Benchmark.
Friday, Nov 152013, 9:07 AM
Friday, Nov 152013, 9:07 AM| Comment!
- SAP has been upgraded to Overweight by Barclays. Shares +1.3% premarket.
- Ericsson (ERIC) has been upgraded to Buy by Banco Santander. Shares +2%.
- Millennial Media (MM) has been cut to Neutral by Goldman two days after it posted a disappointing Q3 report (I, III).
- GOGO has been cut to Underweight by Morgan Stanley following a huge run-up in response to a strong Q3 report and a positive FAA ruling. Two other firms have already downgraded the in-flight Wi-Fi provider since its Q3 report. Shares -3.1%.
- ARM (ARMH) has been started at Outperform by JMP.
Monday, Oct 212013, 9:15 AM
Friday, Aug 22013, 11:04 AM
Friday, Aug 22013, 11:04 AM| Comment!
- Sources tell BloombergBusinessweek SAP has considered buying Jive (JIVE +2.6%) in recent months, along with other companies.
- There doesn't appear to be any new information about SAP/Jive in this column, relative to a May report stating SAP considered acquiring the enterprise social networking software firm, but decided not to due to product overlap concerns.
- BloombergBusinessweek also observes SAP is rapidly expanding its Silicon Valley presence. The German software giant has spent $7.6B to acquire Valley software firms SuccessFactors and Ariba, and its Palo Alto-based VC arm has invested $700M+ in startups, including enterprise cloud storage high-flyer Box.
Friday, Jul 192013, 9:54 AMA roundup of tech analyst ratings changes: 1) Microsoft (MSFT -9.2%) has been downgraded to Market Perform by Raymond James and Cowen following its FQ4 miss. 2) AMD (AMD -14.5%) has been downgraded to Underweight by Morgan Stanley, and to Underperform by Credit Suisse, following its Q2 beat. 3) Skyworks (SWKS +10.1%) has been upgraded to Buy by Needham following its FQ3 beat. 4) BlackBerry (BBRY +0.5%) has been upgraded to Market Perform by BMO. 5) IGT (IGT -4.2%) has been downgraded to Underperform by Credit Suisse. 6) SAP (SAP -1.3%) has been downgraded to Neutral by JPMorgan a day after posting a Q2 miss. 7) Ultratech (UTEK -4%) has been downgraded to Hold by Noble Financial. |Friday, Jul 192013, 9:54 AM| Comment!
Thursday, Jul 182013, 5:13 AM
Friday, Jun 282013, 2:24 PMIn addition to IBM, several other enterprise IT names are pressured by Accenture's (ACN -10.3%) May quarter revenue miss (caused by consulting weakness), light guidance, and commentary about soft European demand. SAP (SAP -3.6%), Autodesk (ADSK -2.3%), Qlik (QLIK -2.1%), and Informatica (INFA -1.8%), all of whom have strong European exposure, are among the casualties. Other decliners include VMware (VMW -1.5%), Salesforce (CRM -1.9%), Teradata (TDC -1.8%), and CommVault (CVLT -3.9%). In his downgrade note on Accenture, Raymond James' Brian Gesuale mentioned "ERP [software consulting] work is showing signs of commoditization and short-term projects remain on the shelf." That might not be going over well with SAP investors. |Friday, Jun 282013, 2:24 PM| 2 Comments
Wednesday, Jun 262013, 11:26 AMWorkday (WDAY +3.9%) rallies after William Blair starts coverage with an Outperform. The launch comes a day after partner Salesforce announced a partnership with rival Oracle, and Pac Crest struck an upbeat tone about Workday's new cloud recruiting product. The firm says checks indicate recruiting rivals Taleo and SuccessFactors are "far less competitive" following their respective acquisitions by Oracle (ORCL) and SAP, thanks in part major personnel defections (this is an issue bigger software firms often face when acquiring startups), and that Workday's "unique use of object-oriented technology and its proprietary in-memory data model" aid its efforts to enter the HR/finance analytics space. |Wednesday, Jun 262013, 11:26 AM| Comment!
Friday, Jun 212013, 11:40 AMAs was the case in March, cloud competition is in focus as Oracle (ORCL -8.6%) dives following a revenue/EPS miss marked by soft new license/cloud subscription growth. "Seasonally, the fourth quarter is their biggest ... software quarter and we have a miss here on software," observes Edward Jones' Josh Olson. Goldman's Heather Bellini is defending Oracle, arguing the shortfall is "likely more macro driven than company-specific." Rivals SAP (SAP -3.3%), VMware (VMW -3.2%), and Citrix (CTXS -2.1%) are underperforming. Larry Ellison mentioned on the earnings call Oracle plans to launch an in-memory version of its 12c database to take on SAP's Hana; Oracle has thus far taken a hardware-centric approach to competing with Hana. |Friday, Jun 212013, 11:40 AM| Comment!
Thursday, Jun 202013, 5:37 PMOracle (ORCL) guides on its FQ4 call for FQ1 revenue growth of 2%-5% and constant currency EPS of $0.56-$0.59; that compares with a consensus of 4.5% rev. growth and non-constant-currency EPS of $0.58. Software license/cloud subscription rev. growth is forecast at -1% to +7%, and hardware product growth at -6% to +2%; the latter is much better than FQ4's -13%, but aided by easier comps. Engineered systems now make up over 1/3 of hardware sales. Mark Hurd names dozens of major cloud customer wins, and claims Oracle's cloud HR business is bigger than Workday's (WDAY). But what does that say about traditional software sales, in light of the total license numbers? ORCL -8% AH. SAP -1%. |Thursday, Jun 202013, 5:37 PM| Comment!
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Davidoff:: Yes, everything seems to go in that direction, however I wouldn't expect that for at least another year.