Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)
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SBUX Forum Topics
- All Comments on SBUX
- General Discussion on SBUX
- Nine Months Later: Some Annual Predictions from the Financial Press [view article]
- Rumors of Jamba Juice's Demise Greatly Overstated [view article]
- Starbucks Gets Re-Caffeinated - Barron's [view article]
- Not Much to Recommend - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/3/08) [view article]
- Starbucks and Jamba Juice Sounds Like a Nice Combination [view article]
- Consumer Discretionary Firms Under Increasing Pressure [view article]
- Companies We Care About: Starbucks, Apple, Google, & Amazon [view article]
- Coffee Still Buzzing, Just Not Starbuck's [view article]
- Is a Coffee Price Breakout Imminent? [view article]
- McDonald's: Lapping the Field [view article]
- What Is Starbucks Doing Out There? [view article]
- Global Growth Trades - Fast Money Recap (9/3/08) [view article]
loading ...Recent SBUX Articles
- Consumer Discretionary Firms Under Increasing Pressure
- Starbucks Gets Re-Caffeinated - Barron's
- Rumors of Jamba Juice's Demise Greatly Overstated
- Nine Months Later: Some Annual Predictions from the Financial Press
- Companies We Care About: Starbucks, Apple, Google, & Amazon
- Coffee Still Buzzing, Just Not Starbuck's
- McDonald's: Lapping the Field
- Global Growth Trades - Fast Money Recap (9/3/08)
- Starbucks: No Raise for Schultz?
- Is a Coffee Price Breakout Imminent?
- Full List of Articles »
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Starbucks on Sale (Part I) [view article]
Actually, DD has a corporate policy to throw out any unsold brew after 18 minutes. The number one thing that makes a difference to coffee flavor is that it has to be fresh. Fresh-brewed Folgers will taste infinitely better than Illy that's been sitting on a boilerplate for 3 hours. Anyone every tried ordering the decaf brew at Starbucks outside peak times? It's downright awful, and shame on them for pretending to be about premium coffee. So now Howard Schultz announced with a lot of noise that from now on unsold Starbucks brew will be thrown out every 30 minutes. Better late than never I guess. It's still inexcusable that they had the gall to sell 3-hour old swill with all the aroma boiled out before.As for McDonald's coffee, I'm talking about the premium McCafe coffee, not the regular stuff that's sitting on the boilerplate (there, it will be the luck of the draw, if it's fresh-brewed or not). Just try it one day, the premium coffee. It is actually quite good, better than Starbucks, and market research shows that most people prefer the taste over Starbucks coffee. And why wouldn't that be so? MacDonald's is not stupid. If they decide to go after the premium segment, they can hire some people who know about coffee to get the product right. This isn't rocket science. Reply
Starbucks Wakes Up, Smells the Coffee [view article]
That chart comes from our actual SBUX research report at the time of this article. ReplyInfamous Anniversary - Cramer's Stop Trading! (8/1/08) [view article]
Will Cramer fall on his sword? One year from now, will he admit he got it wrong? That he knew nothing, that he had no idea!SBUX just sells over-priced coffee. Over-priced was a fad that has faded as the 'new rich' those who had money to through around like water to live a pretend lifestyle now find their gravy train of home-equity and credit card cash is at an end. To this end, SBUX has tried to reinvent itself through selling food??? Why compete with the likes of McDonalds? So what did McDonalds do, they began to sell 'up-scale' coffee as a simple menu move for big profits and a crush of SBUX's core business. If McDonalds find it necessary, they will put in WiFi areas with an intimate atmosphere - and then SBUX has nothing unique to offer. SBUX is having to close stores - stores that were put in 'trendy' spots with high rents as everyone trampled each other to sell premium items at 'fluff' prices. $4 scoops of ice-cream come to mind as well.
Now for CROX, sure the shoes were 'fad' but the redeeming qualities of Croslite is being supporting, comfortable and most importantly odor-proof are unique and hard to duplicate. Court victories against the rip-offs are falling to CROX. As a relatively small company, although some 800MM in sales this year, it has broadened it product line in shoes and apparel and is moving form its core products. This process takes time, but not much. As a brand it is not a fad. As it garners shelf-space and a growing presence through company owned stores to showcase its entire product line, it will return as a cash machine and will likely be taken out instead of being allowed to be a competitive force. As for scare talk about bankruptcy, they are far from it. This talk enables the bears to cover their shorts and even go long. What the short position fall over the next couple of months as the shorts find something else with downside potential. The smart money will tell what it going to happen.
In the near term, market rallies that make the public assume that all is well, will raise all boats, including the likes of CROX and SBUX. So let's see the percentage moves for each using Friday's close as the benchmark - SBUX 14.42 and CROX 4.44. Timeframe - by the election.
I do not have a position in either stock. My position was long CROX at around 7 and sold at 9.88 the day it ran to 10.55 as the shorts got gunned before the shoe was dropped the next day. Pun intended. I believe that CROX presents a better chance of a 50% trade in the next couple of months than does SBUX. Reply
Starbucks on Sale (Part I) [view article]
gksmar: Investing based on what tastes good isn't a way to make money. Of course SBUX has great coffee and DD/McD have coffee-flavored water - that doesn't mean they'll provide a good return to stockholders. What makes you think the average American has any idea what good coffee tastes like? People use Folgers and Sanka. DD is massively popular in spite of being terrible. Our #1 beer is Bud, and I can name 50 American beers that are better than it, starting with Sam Adams, which is actually pretty widely available. Our top imports are Corona and Heinken, and those are probably the 2 worst imported beers available in the US, a nation that imports hundreds of amazing brews from all over the world. If people cared about taste, Olive Garden wouldn't have crushed so many local Italian restaurants, Belgian beer would be more popular than swill from Mexico, and people would buy any of the excellent Australian wines rather than Yellowtail. Marketing, pricing, and location move product. SBUX, McD and DD are all very strong in all these areas and so we have a real contest to look at here.We all need to get it out of our heads that SBUX derives any significant advantage from taste. It derives most of its competitive advantage from being cooler and more connotative of wealth than Dunkin Donuts (does Britney Spears know what excellent coffee tastes like?). Dunkin Donuts derives most of its competitive advantage from being cheaper and more "blue-collar"... than SBUX (plus the donuts taste better than anything SBUX produces and cost under a dollar, but this doesn't really matter because people will eat anything). I tend to drink whatever's more convenient/whatever the people around me are drinking, but Boston construction workers are never going to drink SBUX and NYC celebrities are never going to drink DD. The marginal consumer will follow the crowds, their budget needs, the marketing, and the location quality. Reply
Starbucks on Sale (Part I) [view article]
Comparing mcd coffee to sbux coffee is insane. dunkin dougnut and mcd coffee is like drinking hot water. SB coffee is rich and tastes like coffee.When you compare sbux and dunkin, compare the size of the cups, amount of coffee powder they use to make each cup, etc.
SBUX is a much better coffee. mcd only the cup looks good, same crap inside it. Reply
Starbucks on Sale (Part I) [view article]
the new dumbed-down 'pike place roast' sucks. big mistake. ReplyStarbucks on Sale (Part I) [view article]
it's a coffee company boys. where is the competitive advantage for a coffee company with a commodity product, growing competition and a shrinking store base?sell it. Reply
July Payroll Playbook [view article]
Rebel,If Ron Paul is elected in 2012, think what an economically sane President could do. Reply
Starbucks on Sale (Part I) [view article]
To pearl2k and najdorf's point, I read in a recent interview with Howard Schultz that 80% of Starbucks' sales is takeaway. That number is very significant with regards to the threat posed by companies like McDonald's, Dunkin Donuts, etc. This means that the whole experience thing (which is real) is only relevant to 20% of customers. The other 80% should be in play as far as competitors is concerned. I think that's very scary from Starbucks' point of view.I'm very skeptical of SBUX at its current price. My feeling is that people are staring themselves blind at yesterday's growth, and are going to end up overpaying. Also, it's a "cool" company, the kind investors fall in love with. (I, on the other hand, invest to make money!)
By the way, I live in Singapore and Starbucks does very well over there (as well as elsewhere in Asia), but they better hurry up, because there's plenty of good-quality chains already eating away at the same market. There's some smart entrepreneurs with deep pockets back there also, and they're not waiting for Starbucks to show up. And frankly, some are doing a better job than Starbucks (better pastries, fresher coffee, cleaner shops, more comfortable seating...) My point is, I have no doubt that Starbucks has a lot of growth potential in Asia, but don't take it for granted, and be wary of overpaying because it's a glamour stock.
I used to own Starbucks (thought it was time to go bottom-fishing at 18.6) but bailed out of it after it slid to 15 and rose back up to 18). I might go back in if it drops to 12, but I'm not sure as there's so many other opportunities. Reply
Starbucks on Sale (Part I) [view article]
I want to believe in this stock, I really do. I gradually took a position earlier in the year and held it for a bit. I listened to Q2 conference call and it seemed more like motivational speaking from the late 1980's than anything solid to get the company back on track. I mean retrain the 20-somethings to pay attention to the customer and make a cup of coffee - duh. Then I was particularly disillusioned after being with 2 friends and not being able to get a seat in a SBUX in NYC. NO, it wasn't that the place was loaded with customers the tables were taken up with laptops, some empty beverage containers and at least one apparently homeless person. We went to a nearby SBUX about a block away. Counter service was okay, we were able to get seats but had to clear the dirty table we were finally able to get. The tables and floor were generally dirty, if there was any management there was no evidence of such. The final turning point was when SBUX was still hiring and an extremely competent, experienced but older (50's) friend of mind went on a cattle call interview. The interviewer was apparently clueless and when SBUX was hiring there was absolutely age bias against older workers. Well great, clueless motivational management, prejudice against hiring experienced workers, filthy tables, seats taken up with laptops and empty cups. I sold my entire position for a modest profit at $18.40. Hiring, firing, high prices, giving stuff away, this company doesn't know which end is up. I have not listened to the Q3 conference call. If this thing turns around I don't think it will be any time soon, rather I think it will be dead money especially in this economy. If I were in it I would definitely check the charts and see where support/resistance is. I haven't looked at it in a while but if there is nothing underneath I wouldn't hang around at this time. ReplyStarbucks on Sale (Part I) [view article]
People who are changing habits because of $4 gasoline will be prone to change their habits toward "elitist" coffee. It is expensive -- period. If this economy continues to weaken, and unemployment continues to rise, there isn't a coherent strategy available to Starbucks to avoid an erosion of their customer base. ReplyStarbucks on Sale (Part I) [view article]
As a sometimes contrarian, I enjoy the naysaying, schadenfreude that you hear about Starbucks in many articles, because it tells me that the bottom is close and a buying opportunity will occur.It's pretty straightforward -
-Brand: This is one of the best brands in America, with high identity and a good deal of loyalty from a diverse, aspirational demographic. Most companies would kill for a brand this good; Starbucks just needs to be sure to keep that brand intact.
-Market share: In its space, Starbucks probably has about 80% market share in the US market. Its rivals such as Caribou, Peets and Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf don't come anywhere close; none have a plan to dethrone the leader.
-Revenues: Sales continue to grow, despite a gloomy economy. This suggests that consumers are hanging on to the product, despite difficult times. They may decline a bit as troubles deepen, but this is a product that many consumers will fight to keep in their lives.
Starbucks doesn't so much as sell coffee as it does lifestyle. If it can keep its brand intact and manage its costs effectively long enough to ride through the downturn, it will emerge from the economic rebound.
I'm not completely sold on some of the project initiatives and I suspect that 2009 will have slowing revenue growth as the economic crisis deepens, but otherwise they are well poised to ride the tide upward. I expect that the stock price may slip more if the indexes take a hit, but on the fundamentals, it's a good company that will recover and eventually will merit a long position. The questions now are when, and by how much.
Reply
Starbucks on Sale (Part I) [view article]
Starbucks should be made to provide help groups for those so addicted to caffine because of them. Their coffee cups should come with a warning to the public regarding this addiction. ReplyInfamous Anniversary - Cramer's Stop Trading! (8/1/08) [view article]
This guy is wrong more then right he lowers wall st to the gutter Replyng
Phil Fisher on Profit Margins, Part II [view article]
Nice article Joe.Phil Fisher was a genius, his son is "nothing like him" Reply