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at MarketWatch.com (Oct 7, 2012)
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SCHX vs. ETF Alternatives
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- In Your Portfolio: Core Building Blocks: A Guide to ETFs That Divide the U.S. Stock Market by Market Cap
- Asset Class Performance: Market Cap
Wednesday, Dec 1112:08 PM
Wednesday, Dec 1112:08 PM| 2 Comments
- "2014 is the year to squeeze more juice out of risk assets. But investors should be ready to discard the fruit when it starts running dry," says BlackRock's Ewen Cameron Watt in the firm's 2014 Investment Outlook. "Beware of traffic jams: easy to get into, hard to get out of."
- Behind the view is the idea central banks (U.S., U.K, Canada, China, to name a few) are poised to begin tightening monetary policy.
- BlackRock doesn't believe stocks are yet in a bubble, but its "risk indicator" - measuring enterprise value against earnings adjusted for volatility - is nearly as high as just before the dotcom bust. "The ratio of the two is the key. High valuations combined with low volatility can make for a lethal mix. This market gauge sounded the alarm well before the Great Financial Crisis."
- Broad large-cap ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, JKF, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, FWDD, PXLC, ALTL, PXLV, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Friday, Dec 61:13 PM
Friday, Dec 61:13 PM| 2 Comments
- "The great peril is not that the Fed finally tightens monetary policy and US stock prices suddenly tumble from what are very obviously overpriced levels," writes Hugh Hendry in his December letter, explaining his new-found bullishness. "The greater peril is that the current backdrop will turn out to mark a rapid acceleration in the ongoing move to the upside."
- In a highly entertaining essay drawing inspiration from the classic Bob Ryan character who popped up on HBO's Entourage for a couple of episodes, Hendry notes the eerie comparison to the markets of 1928, 1982, and 1998 - all ended badly, yes, but participants made plenty of money during the boom phase.
- "Just be long. Pretty much anything."
- Broad large-cap ETFs: PRF, PKW, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, JKF, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Thursday, Dec 511:16 AM
Thursday, Dec 511:16 AM| 14 Comments
- A "public service" from John Hussman who presents this long-term chart of the S&P 500 (SPY -0.3%) matched against occasions when the Investors Intelligence poll registered Bears at less than 18.5%, the Shiller P/E ratio stood above 19, and the S&P 500 was at a 5-year high: 1973, 1987, 2007, and today.
- Index ETFs: SPY, QQQ, IVE, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPLV, VOO, QID, PRF, SPXS, SPXL, TQQQ, DOG, RSP, SQQQ, SKF, DXD, QLD, IWF, RWL, EPS, IWD, UDOW, SDOW, DDM, IVW, VV, SPYG, SCHX, IWB, RPG, SPHB, NY, SPYV, BXUB, RPV, VOOG, QQEW, QQQE, JKD, VONE, FEX, VOOV, TRND, EQL, ROLA, SFLA, FBG, BXUC, UKF, FTA, QQXT, ONEK, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, BXDB, UVG, EWRI, PXLC, VONG, VONV, FWDD, TNDQ, LGLV, ALTL, SJF, FIBG
Monday, Dec 212:43 PM
Monday, Dec 212:43 PM| Comment!
- "Historically, when our indicator has been this low or lower, total returns over the subsequent 12 months have been positive more than 95% of the time, with median 12-month returns of +27%," says BAML's Savita Subramanian of the Sell Side Indicator.
- The index has moved to a 19-month high as of November 30, but still remains in extreme bearish territory (meaning bullish for stocks). In fact, the level of bearishness is pretty near where it was at the epic March 2009 lows.
- Broad large cap ETFs: PRF, VV, SCHX, JKD, EQL, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, PXLC, FWDD, ALTL
Tuesday, Nov 2611:07 AM
Tuesday, Nov 2611:07 AM| 6 Comments
- It's the bull market everyone continues to hate ... BAML's sell-side indicator - a contrarian take based on attitudes of strategists - continues to read in extreme bearish territory, suggesting more gains ahead for stocks. The level of bearishness now is actually greater than that of the March 2009 market bottom.
- Large cap ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPLV, VOO, QID, PRF, SPXS, SPXL, TQQQ, DOG, RSP, SQQQ, DXD, QLD, RWL, EPS, UDOW, SDOW, DDM, VV, SCHX, IWB, SPHB, NY, BXUB, QQEW, QQQE, JKD, VONE, EQL, TRND, ROLA, SFLA, BXUC, QQXT, EEH, ONEK, TRSK, SPXH, BXDB, PXLC, FSU, FSE, EWRI, TNDQ, FWDD, LGLV, ALTL
Saturday, Nov 239:00 AM
Saturday, Nov 239:00 AM| 35 Comments
- The financial crisis changed nothing, writes Vanguard's Fran Kinniry: Investors continue to chase returns, and have lately been jettisoning fixed income for stocks. Driven by the 4th greatest bull market on record - a cumulative return of 198% since the bottom - global equity allocation for investors has increased to 57% from 38%, and vs. the 20-year median of 51%.
- It's probably time for the typical investor (one with an equity-heavy portfolio) to maintain a prudent allocation by directing new cash flows into bonds, while selling stocks - the exact opposite of where money is flowing today.
- "Rebalancing usually seems counterintuitive at the time when it promises to be most effective," says Finniry. "It can be difficult to implement from a behavioral standpoint and requires incredible discipline." With equities partying and the near-universal belief of higher interest rates on the way, who could blame an investor for not wanting to sell stocks and buy bonds.
- "It is very common following significant gains in the equity markets for investors to question the benefits of rebalancing," but it's never "different this time;" instead it's the "same as it ever was."
- Broad fixed income ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, ISTB, GBF, GVI, MINC, FWDB, GIY
- Broad equity ETFs: VTI, PRF, SCHB, USMV, VV, SCHX, ITOT, ONEQ, IYY, NYC, JKD, EXT, EQL, FVI, EUSA, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, FSE, FSU, PXLC, FWDD, TOTS, FNDB, ALTL
Friday, Nov 221:08 PM
Friday, Nov 221:08 PM| 4 Comments
- "I cannot look at myself in the mirror," says Hendry at an investor conference. "Everything I have believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends."
- "I have been prepared to underperform for the fun of being proved right when markets crash. But that could be in three-and-a-half-years' time."
- Fully aware he may be ringing a bell as the last bear to throw in the towel, he tells the audience it would be well within its rights to sell. But for now: "Crashing is the least of my concerns. I can deal with that, but I cannot risk my reputation because we are in this virtuous loop where the market is trending."
- ETFs of note: PRF, VV, SCHX, JKD, EQL, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, FSE, PXLC, FSU, FWDD, ALTL
Thursday, Nov 218:05 AM
Thursday, Nov 218:05 AM| 1 Comment
- Declining 4.8 points to 34.4%, bullish sentiment in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is the lowest since just before when everybody knew the Fed was going to taper in September. The long-term bullish average is 39%.
- At 29.5%, bearish sentiment is about inline with the long-term average of 30.5%. Neutrals at 36.1% compares to the 30.5% long-term average.
- ETFs: PRF, VV, SCHX, JKD, EQL, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, FSE, PXLC, FSU, FWDD, ALTL
Wednesday, Nov 201:41 PM
Wednesday, Nov 201:41 PM| Comment!
- "Everyone is worried that they are not worried about anything because no one else is worried about anything," writes Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker of the stock market. "We are Bob Marley."
- Wrongly bearish for 2012 and early this year, Parker changed his tune in March, but the market has run well past his end-of-year forecast. He's not ready to ring a bell; instead Parker's waiting for evidence of excessive corporate spending and risk-taking as signaling a top. Right now though, companies remain in cost-cutting mode and have been prudent about mergers.
- “We conclude that we can’t be at the top of the cycle until risk to earnings grows, and that won’t happen until hubristic behavior accelerates and debt is on the doorstep of having to be refinanced, ostensibly at higher rates or in a less available market."
- Broad large-cap ETFs: PRF, VV, SCHX, JKD, EQL, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, FSE, PXLC, FSU, FWDD, ALTL
Wednesday, Nov 1312:14 PM
Wednesday, Nov 1312:14 PM| 1 Comment
- "Equities are roughly linear, debt isn't," reminds Citi's Matt King as he warns of a massive debt bubble. He posts a chart (slide 4 of presentation) of Lehman's stock price vs. bond price in the time leading up to the collapse - the stock price declined steadily over a 2-year period, while the bond trundled along until it went from about 70 cents to the dollar to zero in an instant.
- Developed economies are as dependent on credit growth as they ever were, he argues, and the debts of the last cycle have not been written off, but instead covered up. What's more the "illness" of credit dependence has spread to emerging markets.
- Conclusion: "Buy the best seats, but sit near the exit," another way of saying he prefers uncrowded high beta trades (stocks) to crowded low beta trades (fixed income).
- Relevant ETFs: PRF, VV, SCHX, JKD, EQL, EEH, TRSK, SPXH, FSE, PXLC, FSU, FWDD, ALTL, AGG, BOND, BND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, ISTB, GBF, GVI, MINC, FWDB, GIY
Monday, Nov 118:51 AM
Monday, Nov 118:51 AM| 15 Comments
- "I don't want to miss out." a Los Angeles real estate appraiser said in a note to his financial adviser last week after seeing one pundit up his DJIA forecast to 20K.
- "Frankly, from 2009 until recently, I wanted to stay very conservative," says a technology sales manager. "I want to get more aggressive."
- A Houston attorney and stock market skeptic was turned by her Schwab statement showing YTD gains of nearly 20%. She's planning on set aside more of her paycheck for stocks. "Sometimes you feel like it's too late. But it's probably never too late."
- Inflows of $8.9B into long-only equity funds last week were the largest amount since March 2000. This follows October inflows into stock funds that were the 3rd largest on record.
- Index ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, IWM, TZA, TNA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IVV, SPXU, UWM, SPLV, UPRO, VOO, QID, MDY, VB, SPXS, PRF, SPXL, DOG, TQQQ, IJR, RSP, SQQQ, DXD, SLY, QLD, MVV, RWJ, RWL, IJH, EPS, VO, TWM, URTY, SCHA, SDOW, UDOW, DDM, EZM, MIDU, VV, RWK, RWM, SRTY, SCHX, IWB, UMDD, IWR, SPHB, NY, SAA, BXUB, SCHM, DWAS, QQEW, VTWO, MIDZ, QQQE, MZZ, JKD, IVOO, DIM, VONE, SBB, RSCO, EQL, FNX, JKJ, CZA, SDD, ROLA, TRND, SFLA, XMLV, BXUC, XSLV, JKG, SMDD, MYY, FYX, QQXT, VIOO, EEH, ONEK, TRSK, TRNM, SPXH, EWRS, TWOK, FSE, BXDB, EWRI, FSU, PXLC, SMLV, FWDD, TNDQ, LGLV, EWRM, ALTL, PXMC, PXSC
Friday, Nov 112:03 PM
Friday, Nov 112:03 PM| 21 Comments
- Investors poured another $12.4B into global equity funds in the week ended Wednesday, with BAML's Michael Hartnett saying another $8B-$9B of inflows over the next two weeks would trigger a contrarian sell signal in his firm's flow-based model.
- This would coincide with BAML's Bull & Bear Index, which is getting a little to bullish for comfort. Fund manager cash levels were at 4.4% in October. A dip below 4% in November, says Hartnett, would trigger a bright red Sell alert.
- Stock index ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, IWM, VTI, TZA, TNA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IWC, IVV, SPXU, UWM, SPLV, UPRO, VOO, QID, MDY, VB, SPXS, PRF, SPXL, DOG, TQQQ, IJR, RSP, DXD, SQQQ, SLY, QLD, PRFZ, MVV, RWJ, RWL, IJH, EPS, VO, SCHB, TWM, URTY, SCHA, SDOW, UDOW, VXF, USMV, DDM, EZM, MIDU, VV, RWM, RWK, IWV, SRTY, SCHX, IWB, ITOT, ONEQ, PDP, UMDD, IWR, OEF, SPHB, IYY, MGC, NY, SAA, SCHM, BXUB, DWAS, QQEW, VTWO, XLG, NYC, MIDZ, MZZ, QQQE, QUAL, DIM, IVOO, JKD, SBB, VONE, EXT, RSCO, CZA, FNX, EQL, JKJ, FVI, SDD, EUSA, ROLA, PZI, FDM, SFLA, TRND, RTLA, XMLV, THRK, XSLV, JKG, BXUC, SMDD, WMCR, MYY, FYX, QQXT, VIOO, TRNM, ONEK, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, IWL, VTHR, EWRS, TWOK, FSE, FSU, PXLC, EWRI, PWO, TOTS, SMLV, BXDB, EWRM, LGLV, UWC, TNDQ, FNDB, FWDD, ALTL, FMK, PXSC, SIZE, PXMC, PIQ, TWQ
Thursday, Oct 317:08 AM
Thursday, Oct 317:08 AM| 4 Comments
- Still coming to grips with the slightest hawkish twist to the FOMC statement yesterday afternoon, S&P 500 (SPY) futures are down 0.25% and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is off 0.45%. Facebook soared after a big earnings beat last night, then actually turned red during the earnings call, but is now higher by 3% in the premarket.
- Europe opened to the downside, but is now mostly higher, and Asia was solidly lower overnight.
- Treasury yields have regained some of their composure, the 10-year yield falling 3 basis points to 2.51%, after shooting higher yesterday afternoon post-statement. Gold's off 1% to $1,.335 per ounce.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, IWM, VTI, TZA, TNA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IWC, IVV, SPXU, SPLV, UWM, UPRO, VOO, QID, MDY, VB, SPXS, PRF, SPXL, DOG, TQQQ, IJR, RSP, DXD, SQQQ, SLY, QLD, PRFZ, MVV, RWJ, RWL, IJH, EPS, VO, SCHB, TWM, URTY, SCHA, SDOW, UDOW, VXF, USMV, DDM, EZM, VV, MIDU, RWM, RWK, IWV, SRTY, SCHX, ITOT, IWB, ONEQ, PDP, IWR, UMDD, OEF, SPHB, IYY, MGC, NY, SAA, SCHM, BXUB, DWAS, QQEW, VTWO, XLG, NYC, MIDZ, MZZ, QUAL, QQQE, DIM, IVOO, JKD, VONE, SBB, EXT, RSCO, CZA, FVI, FNX, JKJ, EQL, EUSA, PZI, SDD, FDM, ROLA, SFLA, RTLA, TRND, XMLV, THRK, XSLV, JKG, BXUC, SMDD, WMCR, MYY, FYX, QQXT, VIOO, EEH, TRNM, ONEK, SPXH, TRSK, IWL, EWRS, VTHR, TWOK, FSE, PXLC, EWRI, FSU, SMLV, BXDB, PWO, TOTS, EWRM, LGLV, TNDQ, UWC, FWDD, ALTL, FMK, FNDB, PXSC, PXMC, SIZE, PIQ, TWQ.
Friday, Sep 212012, 12:16 PMThe complete list of Schwab ETF fee reductions is here. Both the U.S. Broad Market (SCHB) and the U.S. Large-Cap (SCHX) ETFs - with fees reduced to 0.04% from 0.06% - are now the cheapest in the industry. Bond funds get a cut, too, including the Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ) to 0.05% from 0.10%. (previous) |Friday, Sep 212012, 12:16 PM| 4 Comments
Friday, Sep 212012, 10:41 AM