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Monday, May 6, 7:47 AM More Buffett/CNBC: "Bonds (AGG, BND, TLT) are priced artificially," he says, and investors in long-term paper stand to lose a terrific amount of money. It echos weekend comments where he told Omaha concert-goers, "I feel sorry for people that have clung to fixed-dollar investments." 15 Comments
Thursday, May 2, 7:35 AM The number of bond funds owning stocks rose to 352 in Q1, according to Morningstar, up from 312 in Q4 and the highest level in nearly 2 decades. "We believe that traditional fixed income (AGG, BND) is at a historic level of being overvalued," says Forward Management, explaining to investors why it's moved from about zero of their funds in stocks to about 50% over the last year. 5 Comments
Friday, April 12, 12:46 PM More from Gundlach: Bond indexing has been a wonderful strategy for many years, but now the well-followed indexes (BND, AGG) have too short of a duration and are overloaded with Treasurys. The value is in non-traditional sectors like emerging markets (EMB), non-agency MBS, bank loans (BKLN), and global high yield (GHYG). 4 Comments [U.S. Economy, Financials]
Friday, April 12, 12:28 PM Fixed-income may not be being given away as it was in 2010, but there's still value, says Jeff Gundlach, scoffing at talk of a bond bubble. "Raise your hand" if you own Treasurys for yourself or a client, he asked a room full of advisors (none went up). Bonds are not "over-owned" in the U.S., he says, showing cash and fixed income make up a higher percentage of household financial assets in other countries. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 8, 3:58 PM More from BlackRock's Rick Rieder (previous): He got caught wrong-footed on the yen, cutting his short bets just ahead of Thursday's BOJ announcement which sent the currency plunging. Nevertheless, he calls the BOJ program a big deal not just for Japan but as a prop to bond markets worldwide. With the Fed and BOJ buying up all in sight, fixed-income managers will be forced to widen their selection criteria. Comment! [Global & FX]
Thursday, April 4, 9:12 AM Big news for the ETF industry, Pimco's Total Return ETF (BOND) received more inflows in March than the mutual fund from which it was spawned ($263M vs. $32M) - this despite the ETF having just $4.3B in AUM vs. nearly $300B for the mutual fund. Since inception a year ago, BOND has easily outperformed both the Total Return mutual fund and its fixed-income benchmarks (AGG, BND). Comment! [Financials]
Tuesday, April 2, 12:54 PM Active management - typically a loser with stocks - worked well in fixed income in 2012, according to SPIVA which shows 70% of active managers in intermediate government bond funds beat their bogey (AGG, BNG), with the average return more than double the benchmark. Comment!
Monday, April 1, 1:22 PM Princeton University's $17B endowment has moved entirely out of fixed income, instead building a 5.9% cash position due to a combination of "exceptionally low" Treasury yields, increased price risk, and decreased "insurance functionality." The fund had a tough last year, but has outperformed benchmarks handily over the last decade. Comment!
Friday, March 15, 10:53 AM Elevated bank capital requirements mean banks are holding much lower inventories of bonds than before the financial crisis compared with mutual fund bond holdings. That’s OK while investors keep pouring money into bonds, but WSJ's Richard Barley warns if sentiment turns because investors lose confidence in central bank and government policies, "then the situation could be ugly." (also) Comment! [Financials]
Tuesday, March 5, 10:28 AM "Cash in the developed world is a terrible asset," writes Bridgewater in its (300-page) year-end investor note. "We would be short cash of all the major currencies," in continues - hedge fund shorthand for borrowing to buy risky assets. Previous: Ray Dalio and his co-CIO have made no secret of their bullishness this year. 1 Comment
Tuesday, February 19, 11:24 AM Very bearish on credit (see earlier), Howard Marks tells Bloomberg TV he's more constructive on equities, calling stocks less-loved than bonds. He's not seeing much opportunity in his forte - distressed credit - as the expected deluge in cheap assets from Europe never materialized. Comment!
Tuesday, February 12, 11:52 AM "You want to be borrowing cash and hold almost anything against it," says Bridgewater co-CIO Bob Prince on a client conference call. While not Tepper's "balls to the wall" line, it's a pretty loud statement from a master asset-allocator shop like Bridgewater. Previously Ray Dalio called this year a "game-changer" in which money would reallocated to risk assets. 2 Comments
Thursday, February 7, 8:13 AM More from Grantham: Courtesy of the donkey-beatings, all global assets are once again becoming overpriced, but not uniformly so. Pockets of value can be found in emerging markets (EEM) and Japan (DXJ), and the great global franchise companies. Much of everything else is "brutally overpriced," with U.S. stocks selling at an implied negative 7-year imputed return ... As for fixed income - fugetaboutit!." 5 Comments [Global & FX, U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, February 6, 5:04 PM Vanguard plans the launch of an international aggregate bond ETF - the Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund - by the end of Q2. More enticing, the fund will have a 0.20% expense ratio - less than the originally slated 0.30% - and a planned 0.25% purchase fee has been eliminated. Comment!
Tuesday, February 5, 9:58 PM All Markel (MKL) CIO Tom Gayner ever seems to do is handily beat both equity and fixed-income benchmarks over time. 2012 was no exception, and his theme for 2013 (CC transcript) is the avoidance of credit and rate risk. He's taken the duration of Markel's bond portfolio down to a record-low 3 years and invested in only the highest-rated credits. "Taking credit risk for small amounts of basis points - it doesn't seem like that good an idea to me." 3 Comments [Financials]
Monday, February 4, 12:24 PM Not buying the so-called "great rotation" out of bonds into stocks is JPMorgan's Eric Bernstein, who says fixed income's biggest fans - pension funds, insurance companies, and central banks - aren't just suddenly going to become stock investors. He expects continued moderate tightening of spreads. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]

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Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF