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Tuesday, May 28, 3:10 PM The fundamentals needed to support a bull market in struggling Indian equities are in place, says Jefferies, but the needed catalyst - new elections and a stable government - is about a year away. Use the time to rotate out of just-downgraded staples and IT, and into industrial cyclicals and (especially) financials. Favorite stocks: HDB and IBN. ETFs: EPI, PIN. INP, INDY, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL. Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, May 15, 9:55 AM Indian equities (EPI +1.9%) surge, sending the Sensex up 2.5%. Triggering the rally were comments from the country's central bank that subdued inflation would be taken into consideration, fueling speculation that further rate cuts (there have been three YTD, totaling 75 basis points) are on the horizon. Inflation fell below 5% in April from 5.96% in March. Comment! [Global & FX, On the Move]
Tuesday, April 30, 3:28 AM Investor sentiment towards India is improving, Citi says after meeting with over 40 institutional investors. Key drivers cited were a comfortable current-account deficit, declining inflation, and fiscal health. India is among the few large markets that would welcome equity market inflows; if the currency holds and the macro stabilizes, inflows could accelerate. (ETFs: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN, ICN, INR) Comment! [Quick Ideas, Global & FX]
Tuesday, April 16, 8:48 AM Goldman Sachs (GS) is chosen by India as the asset manager for an ETF made up of state-owned companies. The fund is part of an effort by the government to raise up to $7.4B by selling stakes in state firms. The ETF is likely to be launched in the next couple of months. EPI -10.8% YTD, but the Sensex gained 2.1% overnight. Comment! [Global & FX, Financials]
Tuesday, April 9, 10:43 AM Indian stocks (EPI -0.7%) hit seven-month lows as investors dump shares ahead of earnings season which kicks off Friday. The Asian Development Bank and separately UBS today cut their forecasts for the country's economic growth to 6% and 6.5% respectively. Last year's 5% growth rate was the lowest in 10 years. India's central bank meets Friday and may cut rates for a third time this year. Comment! [Global & FX]
Monday, April 1, 8:19 AM India's PMI slides to a 16-month low of 52 in March from 54.2 in February, led by the New Orders sub-index, also at a 16-month low, and "persistent power outages" hampering production. Inventories, however, were depleted somewhat, suggesting a future lift in output to replenish them. EPI -7.3% YTD. Comment! [Global & FX]
Monday, March 25, 8:40 AM Not joining the global rally, India's Sensex declines (0.3%) for a 7th consecutive day amid a government stalemate and a central bank which just cut rates but hinted more may not be coming. India-related funds led declines in the ETF sector last week, SCIF and INXX each down 9.4%, SCIN -7.2%. The popular EPI fell 5.5%. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, March 19, 3:04 AM As expected, the Reserve Bank of India has cut its benchmark interest rate to 7.5% from 7.75%, the second reduction this year, as it looks to boost faltering economic growth. The move comes despite consumer inflation of 10.9%. "Even as the policy stance emphasizes addressing the growth risks, the headroom for further monetary easing remains quite limited," the RBI said. (PR) Comment! [Global & FX, Top Stories]
Saturday, February 16, 8:45 AM Keep an eye on India, where a wave of foreign money is helping to keep the Sensex firm in the face of worrisome economic data. Beneath the surface is a large decline in Indian small caps (SCIF), suggesting locals are sellers. EPI +14.7% since Sept. 1. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Tuesday, January 29, 6:57 AM Mostly expected, the Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 7.75% overnight. At the same time, the bank also lowered its forecasts for growth and inflation. "It is critical now to arrest the loss of growth momentum without endangering external stability." EPI -0.6% premarket. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, January 15, 2:51 PM A big bull run in Indian stocks brought the Sensex over the 20K level for the first time in 2 years last night, but is the surge sustainable? Maybe not, says Daljeet Kohli, as the stretched market has plenty of room for disappointment should the RBI not ease as much as expected. Morgan Stanley sees a big move up ahead as higher earnings meet still reasonable valuations. Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, January 2, 8:57 AM India's December PMI rises to 54.7 from November's 53.7, led by New Orders rising at the fastest pace in 6 months, and Order Backlogs which rose at the fastest pace in the report's history. "Inflation eased only marginally," with respondents noting the weaker rupee. The India Earnings Fund (EPI) +24.1% in 2012. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Tuesday, December 18, 2012, 4:58 AM The Reserve Bank of India withstands political pressure to ease monetary policy and again leaves its lending rate unchanged at 8% and commercial banks' cash reserve ratio at 4.25%. Growth is slowing but high inflation is causing the RBI to maintain tight policies. "Rate cuts are contingent on inflation coming down, tangible progress on fiscal consolidation and continued structural reforms," says HSBC's Leif Eskesen. Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, December 7, 2012, 12:46 PM Why do investors continue to pour money into EWJ and expose themselves to currency risk when the DBJP offers the same Japanese stock exposure, but hedged against the yen? Another of Dennis Hudachek's 10 Overlooked ETFs is the INDA, tracking the same Indian index as the INP, but with lower expenses. And don't forget IAU, basically the same exposure as GLD, but at 15 bps cheaper per year. 5 Comments
Tuesday, December 4, 2012, 8:31 AM "There is a feeling of euphoria in the market," says a brokerage head, as stocks continue to rally in India amid hope strong growth is set to return in 2013. The Sensex - which crossed 19K for the first time in 2years last week - trades at 15.8X earnings vs. 12.7X average for Asia ex-Japan. Morgan Stanley joins in, predicting 23K for next year. One popular India ETF (EPI) has doubled the S&P's performance in 2012. Comment! [Global & FX]
Thursday, November 29, 2012, 7:26 AM Indian stocks are upgraded to overweight at Goldman, which expects about a 15% gain in the NSE Nifty Index (INDY) by the end of 2013. Current valuation of 13.4X earnings is below the 5-year average of 14.9X just as growth is recovering, inflation is receding, and economic reforms are coming to fruition. The Sensex +1.8% to a 19-month high overnight. EPI +19.8% YTD. Comment! [Global & FX]

SCIF Market Vectors India Small-Cap Index ETF

SCIF

Market Vectors India Small-Cap Index ETF