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As expected, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan has maintained its program of expanding the monetary base at an annual rate of ¥60-70T ($611-713B) a year. (PR)
The BOJ said it is making steady progress in achieving its target of 2% inflation, and reiterated that it expects CPI of 1.3% in 2014-15 and 1.9% a year later.
The central bank slightly increased its 2014-15 GDP growth outlook to 1.5% from a prior prediction of 1.3% but maintained its 2015-16 forecast at 1.5%.
The BOJ warned that "overseas economies are performing somewhat weaker than projected" in its April semi-annual report. However, the bank expects those economies "to gradually pick up," mainly in advanced areas.
The Nikkei is -1.2% and the USD-yen is -0.2% at ¥98.32. (PR)
Japanese industrial output rose 1.5% on month in September after dropping 0.9% in August but missed consensus of +1.8%.
On year, production jumped 5.4% after falling 0.4%.
Japan's trade ministry forecast that output would increase 4.7% on month in October and then drop 1.2% in November.
"Production is on a positive trend because of domestic consumer demand, but this could plunge after the (sales) tax hike next year," said JPMorgan economist Masamichi Adachi. "Exports are the biggest risk to output now due to slowing global demand."
The Nikkei is +1.3% and the yen is flat at ¥98.20 to the dollar. (PR)
Japan September exports: +11.5% versus +15.6 expected and +14.6% previous.
Japan September imports: +16.5% versus +20% expected and +16% previous.
The big exports miss seems to suggest that "the positive effect of the weak yen may have run its course," RBS' Junko Nishioka notes. Exports to Asia were up just 8.2% Y/Y last month versus 13.5% in August, Reuters notes.
The Nikkei is +0.8%, shrugging off the lackluster data as the yen is 0.26% weaker against the dollar to ¥97.96.
"I am going to go on the record," says Halcyon Asset Management chairman John Bader, speaking at the WSJ's Heard on the Street conference. "Japan is an accident waiting to happen ... I don't think this is today's or tomorrow's business, but I think in 10 years this blows up big time ... you can't operate with a debt to equity level like that."
Turning domestically, Bader - viewing a stock market "gone to the moon," the end of the 30-year bond bull market, and high yield "priced to perfection," - sees a lot of risks right now. He's positioned to make money be shorting REIT indexes and other similar instruments.
As expected, the Bank of Japan has left its policy unchanged and maintained its target of expanding the monetary base by ¥60-¥70T ($720B) a year.
The BOJ again said the economy is "recovering moderately," noting that corporate capex has been rising as profits have improved.
However, the BOJ is concerned by risks from overseas, including Europe's debt problems, emerging markets and the pace of the recovery in the U.S.
The decision came just days after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that the government would go through with a planned rise in sales tax to 8% from 5%, which has caused uncertainty about the impact on the economy.
European shares and U.S. stock futures are mostly lower as investors start to get more than a tad concerned that the government shutdown in America might drag on longer than expected. Markets are also focusing on an ECB policy meeting later, when the bank is expected to leave interest rates at 0.5%.
Japanese shares dropped 2.3% as the yen rose against the dollar, and investors analyzed the government's sales-tax increase and stimulus package.
Stocks rose elsewhere in Asia, though, helped by a strong ISM manufacturing report in the U.S.
Hong Kong +0.6%.
EU Stoxx 50 -0.3%, London -0.9%, Paris -0.7%, Frankfurt -0.6%, Milan +0.9%, Madrid -0.1%.
U.S. stock futures: Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.7%. Nasdaq -0.5%
As widely expected, Japan will go through with a plan to raise sales tax in April to 8% from 5%, a move that is set to raise ¥8T.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to unveil a ¥5T stimulus package later today to offset the effect of the tax rise. The measures will reportedly include a cut in corporate tax and further public-works spending.
Still, the VAT rise is Japan's first serious attempt in 15 years to rein in its public debt, which recently topped ¥1,000T and is more than twice the size of GDP.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will reportedly announce tomorrow that he will go ahead with a planned rise in sales tax to 8% from 5%, but he will also unveil a stimulus package designed to cushion the impact of the increased levy.
While the VAT increase is seen raising ¥7.5T for the Treasury, it will spend ¥5-7T on the stimulus measures. Unsurprisingly, there's plenty of noise about the apparent paradox of it all.
The package will include tax breaks for companies but not a cut in income tax, as well as investment in public works and cash handouts to those on low incomes.
Meanwhile, Japan's real interest rates seem to have dropped below zero, with inflation rising to 0.8% in August and the yield on 10-year bonds dropping to 0.69%. The hope is that bond-holders will look for returns by moving out of bonds and into assets such as stocks, loans, property or overseas assets, a trend that will eventually feed into higher prices and further help the battle against deflation.