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Tuesday, June 18, 12:20 PM The speculative phase of the rally in Japanese stocks is over, says Deutsche, setting up the next leg which will require the participation of domestic investors. Yes, underweight global equity funds may help, but they've already boosted stakes and have just $2T in assets compared to $9T of Japanese household cash. DXJ +3.1%, EWJ +2.3%. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Saturday, June 15, 10:48 AM Some color and context from Nomura's highly publicized Nikkei 18K call: The bank's strategists "do not brush off recent stock market turmoil lightly" and note that a close below Nikkei 12,362 may be particularly significant. The bank's forecast is based on the idea that earnings are recovering and global P/Es are expanding. Japanese stocks (EWJ, DXJ) are "once again trading at lower P/E ratios than U.S. stocks," the bank notes, adding that "if the average P/E ratio of U.S. stocks rises to 16x around H2 … Japanese stocks' P/E ratio could rise to 17x." 2 Comments [Global & FX]
Thursday, June 13, 3:21 PM Abenomics and the direction of the yen get a lot of attention, says fund manager Rajiv Jain, but don't forget how dependent businesses are on China. He's having a hard time finding Japanese firms with sustainable growth. "These are some phenomenal companies there, but (we've found) better opportunities elsewhere." Artisian's Mark Yockey goes further: "Desperate people do desperate things, and Japan is in a desperate situation." 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Thursday, June 13, 11:07 AM Thumbing its nose at the recent collapse in the Nikkei, Nomura boosts its year-end target for the index to 18K from 16K. "The full impact of Abenomics on capex and household incomes has yet to be felt." Among the individual stocks set to benefit are Toyota (TM) and Honda (HMC). 2 Comments [Global & FX]
Wednesday, June 12, 10:20 PM Stocks plunge in Tokyo as the Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ) tumbles 5.6% touching a two-month low of 12,543. The USD/JPY slides 1.4% at last check to ¥94.69 (FXY). 11 Comments [Global & FX, On the Move]
Tuesday, June 11, 2:55 PM The yen (FXY +2.9%) spikes higher, bringing dollar/yen back below ¥96 amid rumors of busted carry trades and hedge fund liquidations. Should today's move be sustained, it would be the largest single-day drop for the pair since the 2010 flash crash. BofA's MacNeil Curry suggests the next stop in ¥91. Japan stock ETFs take it hard: The iShares Japan Fund (EWJ -2%), WisdomTree's Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ -4.9%). 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Sunday, June 9, 9:58 PM Japan revises Q1 GDP up to 4.1% (annualized) from an initial reading of 3.5% sending the Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ) up 3% in early trading. Also helping Japanese stocks is the weak yen (FXY), down 0.4% against the dollar to ¥97.95. Meanwhile, the BOJ begins a two-day policy meeting. Goldman's advice: Initiate "long positions in Nikkei September futures with a target of 14,500 and a stop on a close below 12,700." For what it's worth. 6 Comments [Global & FX]
Friday, June 7, 7:14 AM Long Nikkei, short yen continues to unwind with investors in 2013's most popular trade all hitting the exit at the same time. The yen's up another 1.6%, with dollar/yen at ¥95.47 and erasing more than 2 months worth of gains in the last few sessions. FXY +1.3% premarket. The Nikkei tumbled another 1.8% overnight and has also erased 2 months worth of gains. DXJ -2.3% premarket. Earlier: Japan's government pension fund confirms it's cutting JGB exposure and increasing equity holdings. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Thursday, June 6, 1:11 PM When crowded trades go bad: Investors don't wait until Tokyo to sell Japan - Nikkei futures tumble 3.5% as the yen flies higher, now at ¥96.76 and in two weeks erasing two months worth of gains in dollar/yen. The Nikkei has returned to its early April level as well. The unhedged EWJ falls 0.9%, while this year's hottest ETF, the hedged Japan fund (DXJ), slides 3%, now up only 16.5% YTD. 5 Comments [Global & FX]
Wednesday, June 5, 3:40 AM The Nikkei (EWJ) drops sharply once again and takes other Asian bourses with it, with the fall this time because of disappointment with Shinzo Abe's "third arrow" of economic reform. The measures "aren't enough for Japan to achieve sustained economic growth and overcome deflation," says economist Hisashi Yamada, especially as the labor-market reforms don't go far enough. There's also disappointment that Abe isn't proposing to cut corporate taxes, which are amongst the highest in the OECD. Japan -3.8%, Hong Kong -1.1%, China -0.1%, India flat. 1 Comment [Global & FX, On the Move, Top Stories]
Tuesday, June 4, 4:36 PM "This is not a good time to be exiting the Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ)," says Jeff Gundlach in a presentation (webcast) titled "What in the world is going on?" Markets don't rally like that to be immediately followed by a "monster collapse," he adds. He'd prefer to buy below 13K (closed last night at 13.5K), but the his bull thesis remains intact and he wouldn't be a seller here. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, June 4, 12:31 PM "Current conditions represent a buying opportunity for bonds (TLT, LQD) says Jeff Gundlach, appearing on CNBC. Higher interest rates will prove too damaging to certain sectors and he expects the 10-year Treasury - currently at 2.13% - to head back below 2% into the summer and fall. Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ)? In the mid-12s, it's a buying opportunity. Apple (AAPL)? He was a buyer in the low $400s and $500 is a chip shot, but it may never see $700. Chipotle (CMG)? He never got filled on his short at $380, but would give it a shot again. 9 Comments
Monday, June 3, 11:24 AM The yen (FXY +1.4%) surges higher, with dollar/yen crashing through ¥100 all the way to ¥98.97 - the first time in double digits in about a month. Along with the strengthening yen are declining Nikkei 225 futures (NKY), off 2.8%. EWJ -1.9%, DXJ -3.6%. The proprietor of the DXJ, WisdomTree (WETF -3.1%). 1 Comment [Global & FX, On the Move]
Thursday, May 30, 10:37 PM Investors rush to buy the tumbling Japanese stock market, with WisdomTree's (WETF) Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ) raking in another $264M over the last week, according to XTF.com, the 3rd largest inflow of any ETF. The crazy turnaround in Nikkei futures this morning on word Japan's national pension fund is considering boosting its equity allocation carries through to Tokyo, the Nikkei +1.8%. Comment! [Financials, Global & FX]
Thursday, May 30, 7:35 AM Nikkei futures go nuts, reversing most of a 5% overnight plunge on word Japan's public pension fund is considering shifting to a more pro-equity stance. They're off just 0.4% at the moment. NKY -1% premarket. 13 Comments [Global & FX, On the Move, Top Stories]
Thursday, May 30, 7:24 AM The recently-plunging Nikkei may have already solved this issue, but Japan's giant public pension fund (GPIF) is considering a change in strategy that would otherwise force it to sell stocks (EWJ, DXJ) and buy JGBs (JGBS) as equities rally and bond prices fall. No significant change in policy has been made since 2006. Of interest: Last night's 5% dive in stocks failed to put in a bid for JGBs, the yield on the 10-year flat at 0.89%. 3 Comments [Global & FX]

SCJ iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap Index ETF

SCJ

iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap Index ETF