Thu, Feb. 26, 9:20 AM
- Hungry as ever to add more project financing, SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) has created a $750M fund to finance residential solar projects in 14 states and Washington D.C. Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), which is no stranger to renewable investments, will be investing $300M in the fund.
- Google and SolarCity partnered on a $280M residential project fund back in 2011. SolarCity stated last week it had already lined up most of the financing it needed to hit a 2015 deployment target of 920MW-1GW.
- SolarCity has risen to $54.00 premarket.
Tue, Feb. 24, 10:18 AM
- Beaten down over the last several months as oil and natural gas prices tumbled, solar stocks are rallying today (TAN +3.9%) after First Solar and SunPower announced they're in talks to form a solar project YieldCo, with plans to eventually do an IPO for it.
- The announcement comes less than a year after SunEdison (SUNE +1.5%) took its TerraForm Power (TERP +1.8%) solar project YieldCo public. Canadian Solar (CSIQ +8.1%), which has said it's looking to do a YieldCo at some point, is among today's biggest gainers (not counting First Solar/SunPower).
- Other standouts: SCTY +3.6%. JKS +6.2%. SOL +5.2%. TSL +4%. JASO +3.1%. YGE +4.3%. CSUN +4.5%. ENPH +2.4%.
Wed, Feb. 18, 4:57 PM
- SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) deployed 176MW of solar systems in Q4, +70% Y/Y but below guidance of 179MW-194MW; it blames delays for "a few large commercial projects." The company is maintaining 2015 deployment guidance of 920MW-1GW (up from 2014's 502MW).
- For Q1, SolarCity is providing installation guidance rather than deployment guidance, arguing it gives "a true reflection of our capabilities before the unpredictability around the timing of inspections in between installation and deployment." Q1 installation guidance is at 145MW (up over 100% Y/Y), a figure said to reflect Northeast seasonality and typical Q1 commercial softness. Q1 EPS guidance of -$1.65 to -$1.75 is below a -$1.25 consensus.
- Q4 bookings totaled 206MW, -11% Q/Q (seasonality is blamed) but +103% Y/Y. 21.3K new customers were added, raising the cumulative count to 189.7K. Estimated contracted payments rose by ~$900M Q/Q to $5B, and retained value forecast by ~$200M to $2.45B.
- Cost/watt fell to $2.86 from Q3's $2.90; SolarCity is aiming to hit $2.50 by 2017. SolarCity plans to begin installing equipment at Silevo's Buffalo solar module plant in Q1 2016, and reach 1GW of capacity by 2017.
- The company ended 2014 with over $640M in cash/investments, $245M in long-term debt, $230M in convertible debt, and $53M in solar asset-backed notes.
- Q4 results, shareholder letter (.pdf), presentation (.pdf)
Wed, Feb. 18, 4:12 PM
Tue, Feb. 17, 5:35 PM
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Mon, Feb. 2, 11:30 AM
- WTI crude oil soared above $48/barrel on Friday after ISIS attacked the Iraqi city of Kirkuk, and is holding its ground today. Oil/gas producers are rallying, and so are beaten-down solar firms (TAN +2.2%).
- Notable gainers: FSLR +6%. SCTY +9.2%. SUNE +5.5%. SPWR +4.9%. TSL +6.6%. JKS +4.8%. CSIQ +4.6%. DQ +13.2%. VSLR +4.4%. JASO +3.8%. ENPH +3.4%. HSOL +3.6%. YGE +4.3%. ASTI +3.1%. SOL +3.4%.
- RBC made a contrarian call on Friday, upgrading SunPower, JA Solar, and Trina to Outperform. A long list of U.S. and Chinese solar firms are expected to post Q4 results this month.
Mon, Feb. 2, 9:10 AM
Mon, Jan. 26, 2:09 PM
- Though WTI crude is still below $46/barrel and the Nasdaq is only up 0.3%, beaten-down solar stocks are posting big gains (TAN +3.9%). Quite possibly helping: Pres. Obama has said the U.S. will help finance an Indian effort to install 100GW of solar capacity by 2022.
- The head of an Indian think tank estimates such an effort would cost $160B. India says it's seeking $100B worth of investments over 7 years. The country's bureaucracy/red tape has often stalled major foreign investments; the new government has repeatedly promised to change that.
- First Solar (FSLR +4.1%) and SunEdison (SUNE +4.1%) are among the companies to have struck deals for Indian solar projects. SunEdison has announced plans to invest up to $4B in an Indian solar manufacturing plant through a JV. First Solar and Trina (TSL +5.4%) are weighing plans to build their own local plants.
- Other notable gainers: SCTY +4.7%. JKS +7.5%. SOL +5.8%. SPWR +2.9%. CSIQ +4.6%. JASO +4.4%. RGSE +3.7%. ASTI +9.3%. HSOL +3.2%. DQ +3.7%.
Thu, Jan. 15, 2:56 PM
- Yesterday's oil rally has proven short-lived: WTI crude is down $1.90 today to $46.58. With equities going in the same direction, solar stocks (TAN -3%) are having another rough day.
- SolarCity (SCTY -3.9%) and SunEdison (SUNE -6.9%) are also contending with target cuts from Canaccord's Josh Baribeau (to $64 and $26, respectively), who nonetheless maintains Buy ratings. "We are choosing to get slightly less aggressive on the riskier high-multiple names in the solar group as a result of growing macro uncertainty and business model changes in 2015."
- However, Baribeau "[remains] confident in SolarCity's momentum," and expects the company to generate "significant value" from its contracted assets in time. Q4 supply chain talks indicate U.S. residential solar demand remains "very strong."
- Regarding SunEdison, he's worried the company is "taking on a greater amount of execution and capital risk following announcements of potential manufacturing capacity and international joint ventures." But he still considers it "the world's leading renewable project developer, with a track record of executing."
- Fellow U.S. solar firms SunPower (SPWR -7%) and Vivint Solar (VSLR -7.6%) are also off sharply. Other industry names are seeing more modest declines, but still generally underperforming the Nasdaq.
Wed, Jan. 14, 9:21 AM| 23 Comments
Thu, Jan. 8, 1:15 PM
- Deutsche's Vishal Shah, bullish on solar for a long time, asserts the "recent volatility in solar stocks, driven largely by oil price weakness, presents an attractive entry point for investors as we expect 2015 to be a year of stable industry pricing and accelerating volume growth."
- Shah expects solar to see a "balanced supply/demand outlook as strong demand from the US and improving demand from China/other emerging solar markets offsets any potential demand weakness in the UK/Japan."
- He observes oil accounts for just ~5% of global electricity output, and sees both solar project pipelines/margins and module margins rising in 2015. Tariffs against Chinese module vendors are expected to be "completely removed."
- His top picks are SolarCity (SCTY +3.3%), SunEdison (SUNE +4.1%), SunPower (SPWR +6.1%), and Vivint (VSLR +0.3%); the first three are faring quite well today. Yingli (YGE +0.2%), however, has been downgraded to Hold due to balance sheet and financial flexibility concerns.
- Other major gainers: FSLR +3.9%. JKS +6%. ENPH +5.4%. CSIQ +3.7%. RGSE +5.2%. TERP +3.2%.
- SunEdison announced today it has bought new wind turbines that will allow it to build up to 1.6GW of wind projects that qualify for U.S. tax credits. The purchase follows the company's $2.4B deal to buy project developer First Wind.
- ETFs: TAN, KWT
Wed, Jan. 7, 7:33 AM
- SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) is partnering with JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) to finance more than $350M in solar power projects with a new investment fund.
- The fund is the second created by the two companies, and a follow-up to a fund created in 2013 to finance approximately $170M projects.
- JPM +0.9% premarket
- Previously: SolarCity, BofA partner on solar financing program (Dec. 11 2014)
Mon, Jan. 5, 1:18 PM
- WTI crude is down by $2.36 to $50.33/barrel, and briefly fell below $50/barrel for the first time since '09. Brent crude is down $3.18 to $53.24/barrel. Solar stocks, no stranger to getting hit hard by crude's decline, are seeing more pain (TAN -2.1%).
- U.S. solar firms First Solar (FSLR -5.5%), SolarCity (SCTY -5.9%), SunPower (SPWR -4.6%), SunEdison (SUNE -6%), and TerraForm (TERP -4.4%) are especially hard-hit. But other names are also underperforming: CSIQ -3.6%. DQ -5.1%. CSUN -4.2%. JKS -2.8%. SOL -3.5%. The S&P is down 1.8%.
- A reminder: Oil accounts for only ~1% of U.S. electricity production, and transmission/distribution costs often have a bigger impact on electricity prices than energy input costs.
- Industry news: 1) Canadian Solar has completed selling two 10MW Ontario plants to renewable energy investment firm RET. 2) Hanwha (HSOL +0.9%) has struck a deal to supply 80MW of modules for a Chilean solar plant. 3) China Sunergy has won a 30MW solar module contract from an Indian solar park builder.
Dec. 30, 2014, 10:27 AM
- SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) CEO Lyndon Rive discloses he sold 100K shares on Christmas Eve at $56.61. 30K of the shares were obtained through the exercising of stock options priced at $1.62.
- Two weeks ago, CTO Peter Rive (Lyndon's brother and a fellow co-founder) disclosed the sale of 125K shares at $50.43, following the exercising of options to purchase 37.5K shares at $1.62.
Dec. 18, 2014, 12:18 PM
- While the Guggenheim Solar ETF is only modestly outperforming the Nasdaq (+2% vs. +1.6%), First Solar (FSLR +6.2%) and SolarCity (SCTY +6.9%) are posting big gains.
- Both names had tumbled in late November and early December, in tandem with plunging crude oil prices. More than a few bulls had argued the link between crude prices and solar demand is limited.
- Recent SA Pro articles on First Solar and SolarCity: I, II
Dec. 18, 2014, 9:29 AM
SCTY vs. ETF Alternatives
SolarCity Corp is engaged in designing, sales, engineering, installation, monitoring, maintenance and financing of solar energy systems to residential and commercial customers, and sale of electricity generated by solar energy systems to customers.
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