Fri, Oct. 2, 4:03 PM
- Like various other names clobbered in recent weeks as markets went into risk-off mode, solar stocks posted outsized gains today, with the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) more than erasing its big Monday losses. A rally in energy stocks (aided by higher crude prices) likely helped out. The Nasdaq rose 1.7%, and the S&P 1.4%.
- SunEdison (SUNE +14.7%), which continues trading at a fraction of its June/July highs thanks to debt/cash flow fears and apparent hedge fund selling, was a standout. SolarCity (SCTY +7.3%), which made a high-efficiency panel announcement earlier today, also fared quite well, as did SunEdison buyout target Vivint (VSLR +10.8%), SunEdison YieldCo TerraForm Power (TERP +12.9%), and fellow North American firms Canadian Solar (CSIQ +12.5%), First Solar (FSLR +6.5%), SunPower (SPWR +5.8%), and Enphase (ENPH +11.4%).
- In addition to Daqo, ReneSola, and Yingli (previously covered), Chinese winners included JinkoSolar (JKS +11.6%), Trina (TSL +6.7%), and JA Solar (JASO +5.7%).
Thu, Sep. 24, 3:37 PM
- SolarCity (SCTY -2.2%) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ +0.4%) are initiated with Buy ratings at Stifel, which says recent solar market volatility has created attractive buy points for the stocks.
- The firm forecasts growth in the solar industry, noting that solar module prices have plummeted 60% since 2011, helping solar compete efficiently with natural gas, yet the industry's 2% worldwide penetration is expected to rise to only 4% in 2018, leaving big opportunities for market share grabs.
- SCTY, who leads the U.S. residential solar installation market with a 34% share, is particularly well-leveraged to ramp its market share, while CSIQ is one of the leading producers with a strong cost position, the firm says.
Tue, Aug. 25, 9:19 AM| Tue, Aug. 25, 9:19 AM | 7 Comments
Mon, Aug. 24, 12:46 PM
Mon, Aug. 24, 11:34 AM
- In an epic intraday swing, SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) is up 25% from an early-morning low of $34.65 as tech bargain-hunters/short-coverers emerged. 4.76M shares have already been traded, topping a 3-month daily average of 2.45M.
- CEO Lyndon Rive has responded to Jim Chanos' bearish Friday remarks. Regarding Chanos' assertion that SolarCity is a subprime finance company at heart, Rive notes the average FICO credit score for SolarCity customers is 740, well above the 640 level considered the threshold for subprime lending. "[Chanos is] wrong. He knows this. Our FICO score is public when we do securitizations ... He's intentionally saying this to add more pressure to the stock so he can make money."
- Rive also insists SolarCity has been offering cheaper electricity prices than utilities regardless of specific contract terms - Chanos argued many SolarCity clients are stuck with "relatively uneconomic" long-term electricity contracts, given solar panel prices have continued declining.
- Update: Goldman has also come to SolarCity's defense, arguing financing/cost of capital worries that have weighed on shares are unjustified. The firm notes SolarCity successfully sold solar asset-backed securities 11 days ago, and expects more such deals.
- Update 2 (12:36PM ET): SolarCity is now up 18.3%.
Mon, Aug. 24, 10:00 AM
- Among the biggest tech decliners as U.S. stocks tumble/see panic selling amid a global plunge in equities triggered by China/macro fears: SolarCity (SCTY -8.4%), Ambarella (AMBA -8.6%), SolarEdge (SEDG -7.9%), Fitbit (FIT -9.7%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -10.2%), 21Vianet (VNET -15.7%), Yingli (YGE -14.4%), VirnetX (VHC -11.3%), and Digital Ally (DGLY -19.3%).
- Also off sharply: Rapid7 (RPD -7.5%), Shopify (SHOP -9.1%), Alliance Fiber (AFOP -12%), SuperCom (SPCB -10%), Luxoft (LXFT -7.3%), Box (BOX -14.7%), and Castlight (CSLT -13.8%).
- The Nasdaq has pared its opening-bell losses a bit. It's now down 4.6%, after starting off down 7.5%.
- See also: Premarket decliners, Chinese tech decliners, large-cap tech decliners
- Update (10:35AM ET): SolarEdge is now up 1.6%. Various other names have pared their losses some, but remain sharply lower.
- Update 2 (10:42AM ET): Add SolarCity to the ranks of rebounding stocks: Shares are now up 4.7%.
- Update 3 (12:29PM ET): The Nasdaq is now down just 0.3%. Ambarella, Fitbit, Rapid7, and Canadian Solar have also turned positive.
Fri, Aug. 21, 12:34 PM
- "It's worse than you think," says longtime China bear Jim Chanos, having a day on CNBC. "Whatever you might think, it's worse."
- "People are beginning to realize the Chinese government is not omnipotent and omniscient ... like many of us, sometimes they don't have a clue."
- Chanos is short Solar City (SCTY -8.9%), saying it's really a subprime finance company, burning a lot of cash, and with negative EBITDA ... "this environment ... scary."
- He remains short some of the bigger names in the energy exploration and production space - DVN, MRO, OXY, APC.
- I don't like Shell (RDS.A -1.8%) or Chevron (CVX -1.5%), he says, and believes neither Chevron's dividend nor its buyback are safe.
- ETFs: FXI, ASHR, CAF, YINN, PGJ, GXC, FXP, YANG, CHN, PEK, MCHI, TDF, XPP, YAO, GCH, ASHS, YXI, CN, CHXF, FCA, CNXT, CHNA, KBA, JFC, AFTY, CHAU, XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, IEO, FENY, PXE, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG, DRIP, GUSH
Wed, Aug. 19, 1:31 PM
- Solar stocks are underperforming (TAN -4%) as both oil and energy stocks post big losses following an unexpected rise in crude inventories, and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -20%) tumbles in the wake of a Q2 beat and light Q3 guidance. The Nasdaq is down 0.7%, and the S&P 0.8%.
- Major decliners include David Einhorn/Stephen Mandel favorite SunEdison (SUNE -7.2%), which has nosedived since posting Q2 numbers on Aug. 6, and is a day removed from pricing a $650M convertible stock offering. Also selling off: Inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -9.6%), which tumbled last week in spite of an FQ4 beat and strong FQ1 guidance, and China's Trina (TSL -7.8%), which rose slightly yesterday following a Q2 beat and full-year guidance hike.
- Other casualties include prominent U.S. names First Solar (FSLR -4.7%) and SolarCity (SCTY -3.7%), Chinese plays JinkoSolar (JKS -7.9%) and JA Solar (JASO -3.5%), and SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -3.2%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -3.6%).
- Roth's Philip Shen is defending both Canadian and solar YieldCos. "Although yieldcos are no longer in vogue—for now —we fundamentally believe the quality of solar asset cash flows are high and that there is tremendous amount of growth ahead ... [Canadian's] management indicated that its yieldco launch remains on track for a YE'15 or early 2016 launch, and the confidential filing could occur soon ... Hypothetically, if CSIQ were not successful in launching its yieldco, the company would still be able to recycle its capital by selling its assets. Management believes this could drive $1bn of revenue in 2015, and we estimate this could represent ~$2.50 of EPS. "
- Canaccord's Jonathan Dorsheimer: "We continue to believe that Canadian Solar's module business will experience a tightening supply/demand during this bullish end-of-year adoption cycle, which should benefit CSIQ's core operations. Although recent YieldCo and solar volatility have had dramatic valuation impacts, we believe the fundamental PV growth story is still intact."
Wed, Aug. 12, 12:01 PM
- Solar stocks are among the larger decliners as equities sell off against a backdrop of Chinese macro fears (heightened by the PBOC's decision to devalue the yuan), lower energy/commodity prices, and a general flight to safety. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -2.8%) has made fresh 52-week lows, and is now down 36% from an April peak of $50.00.
- Chinese and non-Chinese names are getting hit alike. Major decliners include SolarCity (SCTY -3.9%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -5.6%), Enphase (ENPH -8.6%), JinkoSolar (JKS -6.8%), Yingli (YGE -4.8%), China Sunergy (CSUN -4.9%), Sky Solar (SKYS -4.3%), and SunEdison's TerraForm Global (GLBL -7.1%) YieldCo.
- Vivint Solar (VSLR -8.7%) is tumbling after posting mixed Q2 results (revenue beat, EPS missed). Installations rose 78% Y/Y to 66MW (in-line with guidance of 63MW-67MW), and bookings grew 40% to 73MW. In a sign investors have concerns SunEdison's (SUNE +1.5%) pending acquisition of Vivint won't close (or at least under its current terms), Vivint trades at a 22% discount to SunEdison's buyout price, even after factoring a lower stock payout to account for SunEdison's recent plunge.
- Speaking of which, Deutsche's Vishal Shah has launched a spirited defense of SunEdison today, arguing the David Einhorn favorite has plenty of options to bolster shares and/or improve its capital structure.
- Shah: "First, some of the senior mgmt team members can personally buyback some stock. Second, it appears that more aggressive growth plans are a problem for the stock ... The shares would react positively if mgmt slashed devco guidance to 3GW. Third, mgmt can sell some backlog and generate cash ... Fourth, mgmt can get capital infusion from a large strategic investor that has interest in infrastructure projects ... Fifth, mgmt can restructure the IDR structure at TERP so that the drop downs in 2016 are more accretive. Sixth, mgmt could arrange additional warehouse financing ... Finally, even though it looks like a long shot, SUNE could reach an agreement to walk away from the VSLR transaction."
- SunEdison remains down 40% from where it traded before posting mixed Q2 results and (thanks to an aggressive project construction pace) op. cash flow of -$621M.
- Update (4:00PM ET): Solar stocks reversed course as markets rebounded. TAN has closed up 1%.
Fri, Aug. 7, 2:56 PM
- David Einhorn can't be pleased: SunEdison (NYSE:SUNE) is now down 34% since posting mixed Q2 results and reiterating its full-year system delivery guidance on Thursday morning. Fellow U.S. solar play SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) is down 15% over that same span, though its overlap with SunEdison is limited outside of Vivint Solar (about to be acquired by SunEdison).
- Credit Suisse has defended SunEdison amid the plunge, arguing there's “a fundamental disconnect between the stock performance and the ... stellar execution of the organic project development business that exceeded expectations on all metrics, ... increased disclosure to pacify liquidity concerns, and the company making the (right) decision to ensure accretive drop-down economics.”
- During the earnings call (transcript), management was peppered with questions about solar/wind project ROIs, as well as future capital needs and SunEdison's ability to maintain its breakneck growth rate (the result of both internal financing/construction work and M&A). CFO Brian Wuebbels reiterated SunEdison's internal project development ops (i.e. the DevCo) expect to reach cash flow breakeven in 2016, and noted recent capital raises were oversubscribed.
- SunEdison's Q2 results, guidance/details
Thu, Aug. 6, 12:00 PM
- North American solar plays SolarCity (SCTY -8.6%), SunPower (SPWR -5%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -5.1%) are seeing big losses after SunEdison (down 21%) posted mixed Q2 results - revenue beat, EPS missed - and reiterated its full-year system delivery guidance. The Nasdaq is down 1.7%.
- Vivint Solar (VSLR -5.9%), set to be acquired by SunEdison for a mixture of cash, stock, and convertible debt, is also off. So is inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -10.7%), which reports on Aug. 12.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -5.1%) has more than given back the big Wednesday gains seen following First Solar's earnings.
Wed, Aug. 5, 10:32 AM
- SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) is acquiring ILIOSS, a major Mexican commercial/industrial solar project developer, for an undisclosed sum.
- SolarCity: "Mexico's combination of high electricity rates, favorable solar economics and massive solar resources makes it one of the most promising solar markets in the world. As a combined entity, SolarCity and ILIOSS expect to be able to allow many commercial and industrial customers in Mexico to pay less for solar power than they currently pay for electricity. GTM Research expects commercial and industrial solar deployment in Mexico to increase more than 1,000 percent between 2014 and 2020, with more than 1,000 megawatts installed in that timeframe."
- The acquisition follows SolarCity's launch of services aimed specifically at U.S. SMBs. Like many other solar names, SolarCity is rallying in the wake of First Solar's Q2 beat and strong guidance. The Nasdaq is up 1.3%.
Fri, Jul. 24, 9:20 AM
- Baird's Ben Kallo has upgraded SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) to Outperform ahead of its July 29 Q2 report, and hiked his target by $10 to $71.
- Shares have risen to $55.29 premarket. They rose on Monday after SunEdison announced it's buying SolarCity rival Vivint, but returned a chunk of their gains over the last two days.
Mon, Jul. 20, 9:14 AM
Mon, Jul. 20, 9:08 AM
- Top U.S. residential solar installer SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) has jumped to $54.73 premarket after SunEdison announced it's buying #3 U.S. residential installer Vivint for $2.2B - a 51.7% premium to Vivint's Friday close.
- The deal could be fueling hopes SolarCity ($5.3B market cap) will get a buyout offer as well - Elon Musk, of course, has to be willing to sell. SunEdison's purchase might also have positive implications for #2 installer Sunrun's (RUN - recently filed to go public) IPO valuation.
- SolarCity's Q2 report arrives on July 29.
Wed, Jul. 1, 1:27 PM
- Though many have argued the link between oil prices and solar demand is limited (given oil accounts for a small % of global electricity output), solar stocks are once more dropping in tandem with a selloff in crude prices - WTI crude is down 3.6% to $57.35/barrel after the EIA reported U.S. oil inventories rose by 2.4M barrels last week, their first weekly increase since April.
- Notable decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -3.6%), SolarCity (SCTY -2%), Yingli (YGE -2.4%), Vivint (VSLR -3%), Sky Solar (SKYS -2.8%), and Solar3D (SLTD -5.3%). The Nasdaq is up 0.4%.
- Deutsche's Vishal Shah is once more defending the group (previous), arguing solar project YieldCos remain "a significant growth catalyst for the solar and broader renewable sector."
- Shah adds YieldCos are lowering the cost of capital for renewable firms, and that existing YieldCos (TERP, CAFD) have strong long-term visibility thanks to large backlogs of projects they carry the right of first offer for (via their parent companies). Canadian Solar is among the firms planning to launch a YieldCo soon.
- ETFs: TAN, KWT
- 2 days ago: Solar stocks hit hard amid market selloff
SCTY vs. ETF Alternatives
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