Wed, Jun. 24, 12:47 PM
Mon, May 18, 3:03 PM
- Goldman's sees the S&P 500 hitting a mid-year high of 2,150 by mid-year, but fading to 2,100 by year-end after the Fed hikes rates. Its 12-month forecast of 2,125 stands against the current level of 2,130.
- With appreciation returns expected to be nil, Goldman suggests having a look at its dividend growth portfolio - a sector-neutral basket of 50 stocks. They have a median yield of 2.5% and are expected to boost payouts by 16% this year and 12% in 2016. The group's P-E ratio is 15 vs. 17.3 for the S&P 500.
- The ten highest-yielding additions: Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) - with a 2.3% yield, Home Depot (NYSE:HD) - 2.1%, Dr. Pepper Snapple (NYSE:DPS) - 2.5%, National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) - 3.6%, Regions Financial (NYSE:RF) - 2.3%, Baxter International (NYSE:BAX) - 3.1%, Cummins (NYSE:CMI) - 2.4%, Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) - 3.9%, International Paper (NYSE:IP) - 3.1%, AES Corp (NYSE:AES) - 3%.
- Looking over a ten-year horizon, Goldman expects dividends to account for 46% of the S&P 500's 5% annualized return, up from 20% during the current bull market which started in 2009.
- ETFs: DVY, SCHD, ADX, SDOG, DLN, DHS, FDL, DTD, FVD, DVYL, SDYL
Wed, Mar. 25, 9:49 AM
Wed, Mar. 11, 11:51 AM
- At the top of the list of those outperforming the largest dividend ETFs and the S&P 500 by a sizable margin is the Deep Value ETF (NYSEARCA:DVP) - launched last September - up 3.1% YTD.
- Also outperforming: Cambria Shareholder Yield (NYSEARCA:SYLD), First Trust NASDAQ Rising Dividend Achiever (NASDAQ:RDVY), FlexShares Quality Dividend (NYSEARCA:QDF), and WisdomTree U.S. Dividend Growth (NASDAQ:DGRW).
- The three largest dividend ETFs: VIG, DVY, SDY - are lagging not only the above relative newcomers, but the S&P 500 as well.
- Seeking Alpha RTA subscribers for the 5 outperformers: 892.
- Seeking Alpha RTA subscribers for the popular laggards: 16,740.
- ETFs: DVY, SCHD, SDOG, DLN, DHS, FDL, DTD, FVD, DVYL, SDYL
Wed, Jan. 7, 10:24 AM
- Net dividend increases of $12B in Q4 compared to $12.7B a year prior. For all 2014, dividend increases of $54.8B were roughly the same as the previous year. 3,308 companies boosted dividends last year vs. 2,895 in 2013.
- Non-S&P 500 companies got more into the act, with the percentage of those paying dividends rising to 48.5% in Q4 from 47.7% a year earlier.
- The next area to watch for potential increases is the S&P Small Cap 600, says S&P Dow Jones' Howard Silverblatt, noting a net gain of 15 payers over the past six months.
- A word of caution: Though the dollar amount of total dividend cuts in Q4 was flat from a year earlier, over half the cuts came from energy issues. It's not yet the financial dividend meltdown of 2008/2009, says Silverblatt, but energy does account for 11% of dividends in the general market.
- Press release
- ETFs: DVY, VIG, SDY, SCHD, SDOG, NOBL, DLN, DHS, FDL, DTD, DGRW, FVD, PFM, DVYL, SDYL, DGRO, RDVY, DIVC
Nov. 17, 2014, 3:40 PM
- Companies in the S&P 500 could pay dividends totaling a record $41.2B in November, says S&P Dow Jones' Howard Silverblatt, who notes payouts are on pace for their third straight year of double-digit growth - through the end of October, cash payments of $38.59 per share for the trailing 12-month period are up 10.94% compared to the year previous.
- For 2015, the pace is set to be at least $40.49 per share, and that assumes no changes to dividend policy (which isn't going to happen, says Silverblatt). At the moment, 364 of the S&P 500 have a higher indicated dividend rate than their actual 2013 payout, and almost half have already declared a higher rate than their 2014 payment.
- ETFs: DVY, SCHD, SDOG, DLN, DHS, FDL, DTD, FVD, DVYL, SDYL
Jul. 1, 2014, 12:29 PM
- Dividends in Q2 rose from the first quarter by $12.6B, but the growth lagged that of a year ago when they increased $17.6B, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The number of firms boosting payouts in Q2 was 696 vs. just 591 a year ago.
- “The good news is that the number of dividend increases was strong again in Q2, as the 696 increases were the most since 1979,” says the group's Howard Silverblatt. “The bad news is that the growth rate of actual aggregate cash payments has slowed, even as dividends continue to set record payments.”
- Among the S&P 500, 84.4% of firms currently pay a dividend, the most since September 1998, while all 30 of the DJIA pay a dividend.
- ETFs: DVY, SCHD, SDOG, DLN, DHS, FDL, DTD, FVD, SDYL, DVYL
Apr. 21, 2014, 11:17 AM
- It may be too late to pick up the "free desert" of higher returns from small caps and value stocks, suggests Larry Swedroe, as their historical outperformance is now common knowledge. In the past few years, markets have quickly bid up the share prices of these names alongside numerous publications and studies proving their superiority as investments. "One of the characteristics of an efficient market is that once an anomaly is discovered, the very act of exploiting it will cause it to rapidly shrink and eventually disappear."
- Related ETFs: IVE, IWM, IJS, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, EES, VBR, RWJ, URTY, IWD, VTV, SCHA, TWM, IWN, SDOG, VOE, RWM, SRTY, RPV, IWS, IJJ, DEF, SPYV, SCHV, SAA, DWAS, FLAG, JKL, VTWO, PWV, RZV, VOOV, MGV, DOD, SLYV, SDD, VIOO, RSCO, JKJ, SBB, UVU, RFV, EZY, TILT, FYX, VIOV, FNDA, FTA, XSLV, FYT, IWX, MDYV, JKF, IVOV, JKI, PXSV, EWRS, TWOK, VTWV, UVT, VONV, FNDX, PXLV, UVG, SJH, SMLV, SJF, IESM, VLU, GVT, PXMV, PXSC, SJL, FNK, IELG, SYV
Mar. 27, 2014, 11:36 AM
- The ALPS Emerging Market Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (EDOG) will tack an index of the highest-dividend-paying, larg-cap stocks based in emerging markets, on a sector basis.
- EDOG will be joining the ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (SDOG), launched in June 2012, and ALPS International Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (IDOG), launched in June 2013.
- Both previously launched dog strategies have seen positive growth in the last year, with SDOG returning 16% and IDOG returning 19%.
- Other emerging market dividend ETFs: DEM, EDIV, DVYE, HILO, DGRE, EMHD, EMDG, QDEM
Feb. 21, 2014, 2:48 PM
- Maybe sensing the moderate early-2014 selloff is done with, investors poured $13.4B into equities in the latest week, according to BAML - the strongest in 12 weeks and bringing YTD equity asset-gathering back to flat.
- Emphasizing the risk appetite theme, flows into high-yield bonds of $2.4B were the highest in 17 weeks, and money-market funds saw outflows of $40.45B after receiving inflows of $11.55B the previous week.
- Still, emerging market debt and equity continues to be sold. In fact, outflows from EM equities over the past four weeks have risen to 2.2% of AUM - just shy of the 3% level which signals a contrarian "buy" signal, says BAML.
- Turning into a pretty good contrarian signal himself, is Hugh Hendry, who dropped his multi-year caution in December to get "long pretty much anything." His Eclectica Fund subsequently lost 3.6% in January - its worst monthly tally ever.
- Related ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, NY, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, PWB, JKE, EZY, IWX, FTC, EEH, SPXH, JKF, SFK, TRSK, RWG, FWDD, FNDX, PXLC, ERW, PXLV, GVT, SYG, ALTL, PXLG, SYE, SYV, IELG
Jan. 7, 2014, 1:12 PM
- The future looks like the recent past to Citi Private Bank, which - in its 2014 outlook - says stocks have room to run, but beware fixed income. Citi's projections are based on its Adaptive Valuation Strategies which looks at long-term valuation averages to gauge what an asset might offer in the coming decade.
- "Our long-term AVS return estimates for government, investment-grade corporate and high-yield bonds are only 1.9%, 3.4% and 2.9% respectively. The recent rise in bond yields has helped emerging markets where estimated returns have now risen to 5.1%."
- Don't toss away fixed-income entirely, says Citi, but instead cut duration exposure, look for credit risk instead of rate risk, diversify into MLPs, REITs, and dividend stocks, and favor floating-rate investments.
- Broad fixed-income ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, ISTB, GVI, GBF, FWDB, MINC, GIY, AGND, AGZD
- Broad equity ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, MGV, FLAG, DOD, JKD, FEX, IWY, EQL, JKE, EZY, PWB, IWX, FTC, EEH, JKF, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, RWG, FNDX, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, PXLG, IELG
Dec. 30, 2013, 12:49 PM
- The out-of-favor Dogs of the Dow strategy regained some bite this year, up 30% (excluding dividends) to outpace the Dow 30 by 400 basis points.
- The strategy worked well for years until its popularity in the 90s assured it of working well no more - cumulatively from 2001-2010, the Dogs trailed the broader Dow.
- Dow ETFs: DIA, DOG, DXD, UDOW, SDOW, DDM
- The Dow Jones High Yield Select 10 ETN (DOD) attempts to follow the Dogs strategy adjusting the portfolio at year's end to reflect the new dogs.
- Not Dow related, but Dog Theory related are the ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs - SDOG, IDOG.
Dec. 26, 2013, 9:35 AM
- Bulls in the AAII Investor Sentiment Index rose 7.6 points to 55.1% in the week ended yesterday, the highest level since early January 2011. The long-term bullish average is 39%.
- Bearish sentiment slumped 6.5 points to 18.5%. The long-term average is 30.5%.
- Broad market ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, EEH, JKF, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Dec. 11, 2013, 12:08 PM
- "2014 is the year to squeeze more juice out of risk assets. But investors should be ready to discard the fruit when it starts running dry," says BlackRock's Ewen Cameron Watt in the firm's 2014 Investment Outlook. "Beware of traffic jams: easy to get into, hard to get out of."
- Behind the view is the idea central banks (U.S., U.K, Canada, China, to name a few) are poised to begin tightening monetary policy.
- BlackRock doesn't believe stocks are yet in a bubble, but its "risk indicator" - measuring enterprise value against earnings adjusted for volatility - is nearly as high as just before the dotcom bust. "The ratio of the two is the key. High valuations combined with low volatility can make for a lethal mix. This market gauge sounded the alarm well before the Great Financial Crisis."
- Broad large-cap ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, JKF, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, FWDD, PXLC, ALTL, PXLV, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Dec. 6, 2013, 1:13 PM
- "The great peril is not that the Fed finally tightens monetary policy and US stock prices suddenly tumble from what are very obviously overpriced levels," writes Hugh Hendry in his December letter, explaining his new-found bullishness. "The greater peril is that the current backdrop will turn out to mark a rapid acceleration in the ongoing move to the upside."
- In a highly entertaining essay drawing inspiration from the classic Bob Ryan character who popped up on HBO's Entourage for a couple of episodes, Hendry notes the eerie comparison to the markets of 1928, 1982, and 1998 - all ended badly, yes, but participants made plenty of money during the boom phase.
- "Just be long. Pretty much anything."
- Broad large-cap ETFs: PRF, PKW, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, JKF, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Jun. 30, 2013, 5:39 AMALPS launched the International Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (IDOG) on Friday. The fund is similar to SDOG in its focus on dividend paying equities from developed countries (ex-U.S.). IDOG comes with an expense ratio of 0.50%, vs. WDIV and SDOG (0.40%), DEW (0.58%), PID (0.56%) and LVL (0.60%). | Jun. 30, 2013, 5:39 AM | 4 Comments
SDOG vs. ETF Alternatives
The ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (SDOG) is an ETF that applies the 'Dogs of the Dow Theory' on a sector-by-sector basis using the S&P 500 as its starting universe of eligible securities.
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