PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS)

All Comments on SDS

  • commenter
    Larry the
    Hunt
    Oct 14 07:41 AM
    Tuesday Outlook: Everything But the Kitchen Sink [view article]
    David: re recession into depression

    "The way to do that is to take all of your money out of the stock market. This will mean that businesses must shrink. You may lose your job as a result"

    Stock price has very little if anything to do with business contraction and expansion. Yes it can impact cap ratios in banks, leveraged buyouts, and the quantity of new capital through stock sales. It doesn't help, but I don't think that it is a determining factor in the economy - that's a tail wagging the dog story. I do agree if businesses aren't growing through natural demand and reinvestment of earnings, there will be stagnation, recession or worse.


    Reply
  • commenter
    mr.g
    Oct 14 06:53 AM
    Tuesday Outlook: Everything But the Kitchen Sink [view article]
    over sold/ to far to fast - for now this is a correction nothing more - as for 250 billion going into banks coffers it will buy time nothing more . US banks are overleveraged by 46% the US gdp -yes the market is calming down so what does that mean for the near future slow selling off of stocks to continue -
    2.3 trillion dollars(a little less than france's gdp) in europe isnt going to be enough either -
    if you were still in the market now or tomorrow would be the time to sell while the perma bears go for broke
    Reply
  • commenter
    David White
    Oct 14 02:33 AM
    Tuesday Outlook: Everything But the Kitchen Sink [view article]
    Oh yes, at this point in time, the futures are up substantially. It is currently looking like tomorrow will be another up day. Even if that fades as the day wears on. Remmeber the markets zigzag up. When all you hear is good news about actions the government is taking, it is unlikely that the bottom will suddenly fall out of the markets. Many people are profiting (using PUTS and short sales) from the panic they are trying to instill in the average investor. Be smart. Listen to the real news, not the gloom and doom propaganda of profiteers. If fears are easing (and the VIX does seems to be going down), don't feel the need to sell out. It is unlikely the market is going down. It is more likely the market is going up. Don't contribute your money to someone else's coffers. Reply
  • commenter
    David White
    Oct 14 02:27 AM
    Tuesday Outlook: Everything But the Kitchen Sink [view article]
    I keep hearing people compare this crash to the1929 crash. I am embarassed that there are so many people running scared. Certainly there were the bad mortgages. Then there was the complete drying up of the commercial paper market. Everyone was scared all the banks would fail. Some have. Some were saved by buyouts. The $700 billion dollar bailout should rescue us from that fate. Apparently the U.S. government is going to invest $250 billion in U.S. banks. This should provide at least the big ones with enough capital to tide them over through this tough period. The Fed is now buying commercial paper. This is already helping the commercial paper market. The housing market even had good news last week, when the number of houses sold went up for a change (even though they sold at lower prices). The Wells Fargo buyout of Wachovia is going through. Mitsubishi is buying into Morgan Stanley. Everything is turning rosy. The market bounced off a strong support point last week. There is strong support at $82 and $85 on the SPY. After that there are no strong support points until the $42 to $45 range in the SPY. The SPY hit $83 and change last week intraday. It bounced upward. There is every indication that this is at least a near term bottom. It may turn out to be the longer term market bottom we have all been hoping for. Only time will tell that. However, it does look like a strong bounce for the moment. The immediate big bank failure fear is gone. The belief is that the government and the Fed are slowly bringing the commercial paper market back. The government has promised several actions to shore up the housing market. This is starting to be a little bit less worrisome, especially if there are further programs enacted to further shore it up. In normal market bounces, the market goes up in zig zag lines for about a month or more. It appears we should be able to expect this again. Perhaps it will be better than that. Perhaps we have hit bottom. Only time will tell that.

    Still this is not another coming of the great depression. How do I know that? I look at history. Look at the changes in the laws. Look at the improvement in the Fed and the Treasury. In the 1920's the market just kept going up, unreasonably so. People were so happy with it they invested as much as they could, so they could get richer faster. This meant that many people were heavily margined. In those days the laws allowed up to 90% margin (i.e. you only had to have 10% of the stock value to buy it). When the margin calls started coming in the great crash, everyone had to sell. Those that were not as heavily margined had to sell to avoid losing all they had because a lot of people were heavily margined. The result was that almost all investment in stocks ended. With no money from the stock market to feed their expansion, etc., virtually all businesses shrank. They could do nothing else. The housing market collapsed then too. A lot of people lost everything. This is why the margin requirements law was changed. This is why many people today have no margin at all. They just own stocks through mutual funds. People like Jim Cramer did not help the situation. There was some severe panic. That should be lessening.

    This is likely a bad recession. Perhaps it is comparable to the mid 1970's recession. However, there is no reason to believe it should be a great depression unless we make it into one. The way to do that is to take all of your money out of the stock market. This will mean that businesses must shrink. You may lose your job as a result. If you stop spending because you are scared, business's profits will fall drastically. People will lose there jobs. Again there will be a cascade effect. As FDR said so many years ago, we have nothing to fear but fear itself. It is this fear, this panic, that can really destroy our system. Have a little faith in the government. Have a little faith in your economic system. Spend prudently, but spend. Invest prudently, but invest. The sky is not falling. Don't make it.

    My personal belief is that this is at least a rally off a near term low (which may have been an actual bottom). The big profit is to be made in the early stages of that rally. Listen to the fear mongers, and you will miss it. If you do invest, monitor the markets. If we start getting a lot more news about bank failures, or the commercial paper market drying up, or even about a lot of businesses going bankrupt, then consider selling again. However, you should not make all that a foregone conclusion by insisting on a death spiral, when it doesn't have to happen. Sometimes "fear" really is the thing we have to fear most.     Reply
  • commenter
    Roger
    Nusbaum
    Oct 12 08:41 AM
    My Website
    Act Defensively, But Not from Fear [view article]
    khwender, the trade turned out to be correct, could have just as easily gone the other way. simple a matter of luck. your statement has fallacies galore. hopefully you can detach enough from the situation to see that. Reply
  • commenter
    khwender
    Oct 11 11:35 AM
    Act Defensively, But Not from Fear [view article]
    Roger, you are wrong, fear can be helpful, it made me go to 95% cash on 8/8, saved me a ton. Since 8/8 the S&P is down 30% Reply
  • commenter
    MSmailbox
    Oct 11 10:35 AM
    Act Defensively, But Not from Fear [view article]
    I'm sitting on substantial paper-losses, but I have cash and my home is paid off, so I am very thankful for that. Nevertheless, I am very sad... This isn't an easy thing to watch... My raft has been leaking air, like everyone else's, but I am dismayed by those who are jumping out of their rafts, into the ocean. Ultimately, I may go down, but these poor souls have taken that into their own hands and will be unlikely to restore their positions, when things swing back up. I feel no panic, it just makes me sick to see all the ones that are jumping from their boats... The first phase of this horror is bad enough, but when the market swings up and they realize what they've done, I can't bear to watch. If I'm wrong and the world does come to an end, then I'll be glad that I held my positions, left all of my cash in the bank and acted responsibly, during the panic. I have done everything that I know to do. Reply
  • commenter
    Born Free
    Taxed To
    Death
    Oct 10 04:48 PM
    After Coming Rate Cuts, Some Appealing Short ETFs [view article]
    Monty Man "No housing crisis in Canada... YET ". I think your right. After all the chips fall, many Americans may be heading north. I would go long property in Ontario and also the Montreal area. Reply
  • commenter
    SmartStops
    Oct 10 03:47 PM
    My Website
    Act Defensively, But Not from Fear [view article]
    Indeed - studies show the corrections that occur in a Buy&Hold approach that also translates into opportunity costs in having your money not working smart for you. Hopefully this experience can teach all investors, ALWAYS have your Protective Exit Strategy in place for your investments. One that is intelligent - and continually adjusting itself to the stock's behavior and overall market conditions. One that will cut the losses before they grow while letting profits accumulate. Reply
  • commenter
    Smarty_Pants
    Oct 10 11:12 AM
    My Website
    Act Defensively, But Not from Fear [view article]
    Sensible approach. Nobody said you have to capture ALL the possible gains.

    Rule 1) Avoid taking big losses.
    Rule 2) Get the biggest gains you can without risking a violation of Rule 1)

    I always have to chuckle when people write articles showing how much better you do 'staying the course' than trying to 'time' the market.

    You know, the "If you missed the 10 biggest gaining days your returns sucked" crowd. What they always overlook in their analyses is what would have happened if you missed the 10 biggest losing days instead.

    Anyone who has really studied the market can improve their chances of better returns by avoiding large market drops. Only problem is it takes a bit of work. There isn't some 'magical' indicator to tell you everything you need to know. There's a lot of experience involved, but it can help.     Reply
  • commenter
    anarchist
    Oct 10 10:57 AM
    Act Defensively, But Not from Fear [view article]
    SDS is up nicely today. Of course no one can pick a bottom but you move could be the reverse of "catching a falling knife". Reply
  • commenter
    iNVestorUnre
    st
    Oct 09 09:45 PM
    The $60 Trillion Nightmare of Credit Default Swaps [view article]


    if this "casino' is allowed to continue at our expense as taxpaying investors then people need revengee     Reply
  • commenter
    cz
    Oct 09 06:06 PM
    The $60 Trillion Nightmare of Credit Default Swaps [view article]
    To Rocknbob,
    Actually ‘rake’ is a misnomer; I should’ve just said fee or commission in addition to the $700 billion. Sorry for the confusion.
    ‘Rake’ is a term used in reference to the house’s (casino’s) ‘take’ or commission removed from the total ante in various card games.
    More specifically, a 20% rake on $700 billion would be $140 billion for the house (pun intended…as in Congress), leaving the winner (the banks, ins. cos., etc…) with $560 billion and me with the, now obvious, misnomer.
    Reply
  • commenter
    nygiants58
    Oct 09 01:35 PM
    The $60 Trillion Nightmare of Credit Default Swaps [view article]
    Oct 09 07:11 AM
    I can't believe all of this nonsense over AIG. IS EVERYONE STUPID! Obama made damaging reckless comments and didn't even look into the issue. The conference was set a year in advance and paid for by the marketing budget of the insurance companies which can not be tapped to pay back the loan from the FED and the FED loan money is not going into the insurance companies budget at all! Plus, the FED now owns AIG, even after AIG pays back the 100 plus billion dollar loan, the FED owns them. Why are we mad about a conference where 100 of their biggest clients were wined and dined by a 10 AIG employees that was paid for by the insurance companies? That is standard practice. The insurance company has a billion dollar marketing budget and needs now more than ever to keep their huge clients. The better AIG does the better tax payers will be when the FED sells the 79 percent interest later. Piling on against AIG is actually against every taxpayers best interest. We want them to thrive not go bankrupt !!!!     Reply
  • commenter
    User 276346
    Oct 09 10:24 AM
    My Website
    The $60 Trillion Nightmare of Credit Default Swaps [view article]
    If the underlying assets continue to lose value, we are in for a pretty tough ride. I grow lettuce, green onions and write poetry. Reply
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