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SFTBF vs. ETF Alternatives
Tuesday, Mar 42:02 PM
Tuesday, Mar 42:02 PM| 5 Comments
- With FCC/DOJ regulators strongly suggesting they'll oppose any attempt by Sprint (S +3.1%) to merge with T-Mobile USA (TMUS +3.6%), SoftBank's (SFTBF, SFTBY) Masayoshi Son "plans to appeal directly to the U.S. business community and policy makers" to convince them the deal would be good for customers, the WSJ reports.
- Crucial to Son's effort: Convincing his audience Verizon and AT&T currently have a de facto U.S. mobile duopoly, one that Sprint and T-Mobile can't challenge independently.
- Likely to hurt his cause: T-Mobile is now rapidly adding postpaid subs (after losing them for years) with the help of innovative pricing schemes, and regulators reportedly fear a Sprint merger could affect T-Mobile's "maverick" status within the industry.
- Sprint and T-Mobile are both outperforming today. Son plans to make a major presentation on March 11 at the Chamber of Commerce in Washington D.C.
- More on Sprint/T-Mobile
Wednesday, Feb 123:46 PM
Wednesday, Feb 123:46 PM| 3 Comments
- Japanese tech/telecom giant SoftBank (SFTBF) has reported a 0.8% passive stake in Zynga (ZNGA +2.9%). Shares of the social game developer have rallied in response, and are close to their 52-week high of $4.97.
- SoftBank's empire includes Sprint (80%-owned), a 37% stake in Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, and Japan's third-largest mobile carrier.
Wednesday, Feb 1210:20 AM
Wednesday, Feb 1210:20 AM| 2 Comments
- Deutsche's Brett Feldman has upgraded Sprint (S +1.4%) to Buy following yesterday's Q4 report, albeit while leaving his PT unchanged at $9.25. He cites Sprint's spectrum advantage (presumably a reference to its high-frequency assets following the Clearwire deal), and the carrier's 2-year EBITDA growth outlook.
- However, Feldman still expects major subscriber losses in 1H14, followed by "a return to modest growth" once Sprint's Network Vision 4G initiative is finished. He's also skeptical a T-Mobile USA (TMUS +0.4%) deal will happen in light of regulatory concerns.
- But while regulators continue signaling their skepticism, SoftBank's (SFTBF) Masayoshi Son appears undeterred in his quest to merge the #3 and #4 U.S. U.S. mobile carriers. Son tells the WSJ it would be "a dream within a dream" to challenge Verizon and AT&T without the scale provided by an acquisition. "I can't settle for No. 3 or No.2. It's my personality."
- Recent WSJ and Bloomberg reports suggested Sprint/SoftBank are weighing their options in the wake of recent DOJ/FCC comments.
Tuesday, Feb 119:34 AM
Tuesday, Feb 119:34 AM| 5 Comments
- Sprint (S +7.2%) saw a net gain of 682K mobile platform subs in seasonally strong Q4 - 58K postpaid, 322K prepaid, 302K wholesale/affiliate. Though that figure is well below Verizon and T-Mobile's Q4 net adds, and moderately below AT&T's, it represents a turnaround from Q3's 95K net loss (includes a loss 360K postpaid subs).
- The #3 U.S. carrier is also guiding for 2014 adjusted EBITDA of $6.5B-$6.7B, up from a 2013 level of $5.4B and a 2012 level of $4.8B. Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.5%, up from the year-ago period's 10.3%.
- Mobile service revenue rose 2% Y/Y to $7.15B, equipment revenue (phone/tablet sales) rose 15% to $1.16B. SG&A spend was nearly flat at $2.44B.
- Postpaid ARPU was $64.11, down slightly from $64.24 in Q3 and $64.17 a year ago. Postpaid churn rose to 2.07% from 1.99% in Q3 and 1.98% a year ago.
- Sprint's wireline division saw revenue drop 9% to $859M. Its op. income fell to $23M from $71M.
- With parent SoftBank (SFTBF) willing to spend aggressively to improve Sprint's 4G coverage, Sprint has set a 2014 capex budget of $8B, up from a 2013 level of $7.5B and a 2012 level of $5.4B.
- Q4 results, PR
Thursday, Feb 611:16 AM
Thursday, Feb 611:16 AM| 2 Comments
- After rallying yesterday on a report Sprint (S -6.1%) is close to lining up $45B in financing for a T-Mobile USA (TMUS -5.4%) bid, Sprint and T-Mobile are selling off following a Bloomberg report stating FCC/DOJ regulators have "resisted the concept" of a merger between the carriers in preliminary talks with SoftBank's (SFTBF) Masayoshi Son, and that Son and Sprint's Dan Hesse now "plan to decide in the next few weeks whether to move ahead on a bid."
- Bloomberg adds Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY) has asked Son to "gauge regulatory sentiment" towards a merger, and that Son and DT's perception of regulatory feedback will "determine their next steps."
- In addition, SoftBank and DT are reportedly at odds over the breakup fee for any deal - SoftBank wants a small one on account of regulatory risks, DT feels differently.
- FCC and DOJ officials have already suggested they're skeptical about backing a merger between the #3 and #4 U.S. mobile carriers. While Sprint might argue the carriers need to merge to effectively compete against Verizon/AT&T, T-Mobile's recent share gains bring that claim into question.
- More on Sprint/T-Mobile
Wednesday, Feb 52:20 PM
Wednesday, Feb 52:20 PM| 12 Comments
- Sources tell dealReporter Sprint (S +6.5%) is close to obtaining $45B in financing for a T-Mobile USA (TMUS +3.9%) bid. Both Sprint and T-Mobile shares have spiked higher in response.
- The WSJ previously reported Sprint has received proposals from at least two banks for a bid that would value T-Mobile's equity at $31B. In addition to the financing needed to acquire Deutsche Telekom's (DTEGY) 67% T-Mobile equity stake, Sprint and parent SoftBank (SFTBF) will need funds to cover (and potentially refinance) T-Mobile's $20B debt load.
- The report comes as DOJ/FCC officials continue taking a skeptical view of a deal that stands to reduce the number of nationwide U.S. carriers to three.
Monday, Jan 271:48 PM
Monday, Jan 271:48 PM| 7 Comments
- During a Bloomberg TV interview, outspoken T-Mobile USA (TMUS -0.1%) CEO John Legere provided fresh hints his firm is open to merging with Sprint (S +6.5%).
- Legere: "We all need better scale and capability ... The question starts to be: How do you take the maverick and supercharge it? We either need more spectrum and capability and a lot more investment, or we need consolidation."
- Sprint and parent SoftBank (SFTBF, SFTBY) have been widely reported to be lining up financing to acquire Deutsche Telekom's (DTEGF, DTEGY) 67% T-Mobile USA stake. But regulators might object to a tie-up, particularly given T-Mobile's efforts to shake up the U.S. mobile industry via aggressive/novel pricing schemes.
- Separately, Sprint announces it has expanded its 4G LTE network to cover 40 more markets, including Milwaukee and Salt Lake City. Sprint, which is trying to neutralize Verizon and AT&T's LTE coverage leads, now offers LTE in 340 markets.
Thursday, Jan 165:20 PM
Thursday, Jan 165:20 PM| 8 Comments
- The WSJ reports Sprint (S) has "received proposals from at least two banks" for financing a T-Mobile USA (TMUS) bid, and envisions valuing T-Mobile's equity at $31B (compares favorably to a current market cap of $26B).
- Financing, of course, is only one of several challenges Sprint would face in merging with T-Mobile. The company and parent SoftBank (SFTBF) would have to negotiate a deal for Deutsche Telekom's (DTEGY, DTEGF) 67% T-Mobile stake. They would also have to win the blessing of FCC/DOJ regulators who seem to prefer having four nationwide carriers around, and appear to be pleased with T-Mobile's aggressive pricing.
- There's also the matter of Dish (DISH -2.2%), which reportedly won't stand idly if Sprint bids for T-Mobile, and could have much less trouble winning the blessing of regulators.
- In addition to acquiring Deutsche's T-Mobile stake, Sprint may need to backstop a possible refinancing of ~$20B worth of T-Mobile deal.
- S +2.8% AH. TMUS +2.3%.
Thursday, Jan 92:42 PM
Thursday, Jan 92:42 PM| 9 Comments
- AT&T (T -1.9%), Verizon (VZ -2%), and Sprint (S -4.4%) are each selling off after T-Mobile USA (TMUS -1.1%) announced a credit program for defecting mobile subscribers - up to $300 in credit for trading in a phone, buying an approved T-Mobile phone, and signing up for a postpaid plan, and up to $350 to pay off termination fees - that was even more aggressive than expected. Sprint is also being pressured by a Deutsche downgrade to Hold.
- FBR's David Nixon likely speaks for many on the Street when he expresses concerns AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint "will be forced to react to the move." Fears that T-Mobile's efforts will pressure industry margins and increase churn have already been running high. AT&T announced a smaller promotion (up to $450 in credit) last week.
- Nixon also says CES feedback points to "surprising confidence from T-Mobile US that a merger with Sprint could be approved if argued on the right basis." T-Mobile CEO John Legere didn't rule out a future acquisition by Sprint yesterday, though he did suggest T-Mobile's brand would be maintained post-acquisition. Legere also took quite a few shots at his rivals.
- Meanwhile SoftBank (SFTBF, SFTBY) CEO Masayoshi Son isn't mincing words regarding Sprint's challenges. In a Nikkei column, Son blasts Sprint's marketing efforts (all of the company's ad agencies have been fired), and says the carrier "has gotten used to being a loser."
Friday, Dec 132013, 4:01 PM
Friday, Dec 132013, 4:01 PM| 10 Comments
- The WSJ reports Sprint (S +5%) could make a bid for T-Mobile USA (TMUS +7.8%) in 1H14. Both Sprint and T-Mobile shares have spiked in response.
- The FCC would doubtlessly give close scrutiny to a deal that would reduce the number of nationwide U.S. carriers to three from four. But Sprint majority owner SoftBank (SFTBF) hasn't been scared to make big bets.
- Both Sprint and T-Mobile's wireless subscriber bases are considerably smaller than Verizon and AT&T's, particularly with regards to corporate users. Sprint may be betting regulators will allow a deal to go through for this reason.
Thursday, Nov 212013, 11:39 AM
Thursday, Sep 262013, 12:58 PM
Thursday, Sep 262013, 12:58 PM| 2 Comments
- With Alibaba apparently set to list in the U.S. following a breakdown in talks with Hong Kong regulators, 24% owner Yahoo (YHOO +4.6%) is adding to its 2013 gains, and in doing so hitting levels last seen in '07.
- Reuters reports Alibaba "has engaged U.S. law firms to start working on its IPO and will soon be hiring banks to manage the listing."
- Alibaba's very strong Q1 numbers, together with the huge rallies seen this year in high-growth Chinese and U.S. Internet names, has fueled hopes of a post-IPO valuation soundly above $100B.
- 36.7% Alibaba owner SoftBank (SFTBF.PK) rose 4% overnight in Tokyo.
- Previous: ABR assigns Alibaba a $100B post-IPO valuation
Wednesday, Sep 252013, 11:40 AM
Wednesday, Sep 252013, 11:40 AM| Comment!
- During a Goldman conference talk, T-Mobile USA (TMUS +2.3%) CFO Braxton Carter called a merger between his company and Sprint (S -2.3%) the "logical ultimate combination." But he also admitted the current M&A regulatory environment is "tough."
- T-Mobile and Sprint have been bleeding share in recent years to bigger rivals Verizon and AT&T. However, T-Mobile has begun to reverse its fortunes with the help of an iPhone deal, contract-free plans, and its Jump smartphone upgrade program. Sprint is betting aggressive pricing and a rapid 4G buildout will help it do the same.
- Regulators may not be the only reason a T-Mobile/Sprint deal would be challenging in the near-term. T-Mobile is in the midst of digesting MetroPCS, and Sprint is fresh off acquiring Clearwire and merging with SoftBank (SFTBF.PK).
- Separately, SoftBank has extended Sprint CEO Dan Hesse's contract through July 2018.
Monday, Sep 162013, 11:08 AM
Monday, Sep 162013, 11:08 AM| 45 Comments
- China Unicom (CHU +0.6%) says its iPhone 5S/5C (AAPL -2.6%) reservations have topped 100K since it began taking them last week. Last year, Unicom took 200K+ iPhone 5 reservations in the phone's first two days of availability.
- Meanwhile, China Telecom (CHA +2.5%) has cut its iPhone subsidies. A subscriber signing up for an RMB289/month ($47/month) plan will get an iPhone 5S subsidy of RMB2890, 15% less than the RMB3400 subsidy it provided for the iPhone 5. It's worth noting CHA's ARPU is below $10.
- The Chinese figures come amidst sharp criticism of the 5C's unsubsidized pricing, which starts at $735 in China. For reference, upstart Xiaomi's new Mi3 flagship Android phone (5" 1080p display, 13MP camera) starts at $327 in the Middle Kingdom.
- On the other hand, Japanese carriers are aggressively subsidizing the 5S in the wake of NTT DoCoMo's (DCM +0.7%) iPhone deal. DoCoMo, SoftBank (SFTBF.PK), and KDDI are each providing the 5S for free with 2-year contracts for certain plans.
- Kantar Japan recently estimated 2/3 of DoCoMo subs who have been leaving the carrier ended up buying an iPhone.
- Also: Bernstein thinks Apple could still come out with a cheaper iPhone in the form of a sub-$400 iPhone 4C that puts the iPhone 4's components inside a 5C body.
Friday, Jun 142013, 11:21 AMT-Mobile USA (TMUS +3.3%) is "Plan B" for SoftBank (SFTBF.PK) if its merger with Sprint (S +0.3%) doesn't go through, says CEO Masayoshi Son. But Son adds he "[plans] to go with Plan A if possible." Reuters reported last week SoftBank is talking with Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY.PK) about buying its 74% stake in T-Mobile USA if the Sprint merger fails thanks to a rival bid from Dish (DISH). For now, Sprint's board (unlike Clearwire's) is spurning Dish. As always, Son isn't lacking for confidence. "I am determined to be No. 1 in the world very soon in my industry ... You are lucky not to be my competitor." |Friday, Jun 142013, 11:21 AM| 3 Comments
Wednesday, Jun 122013, 3:50 PMClearwire's (CLWR +0.5%) board plans to endorse Dish's (DISH -3.9%) $4.40/share tender offer and postpone a Thursday shareholder vote on majority owner Sprint's (S -0.1%) $3.40/share buyout offer, the WSJ reports. The reports comes two days after Sprint gave its support to SoftBank's (SFTBF.PK) revised offer for the company, and set a June 18 deadline for Dish to make its final offer. Sprint and Dish have been arguing over the legality (I, II) of Dish's bid for Clearwire. (previous) |Wednesday, Jun 122013, 3:50 PM| 1 Comment
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MSF INVESTMENTS:: The big boys are adding to their position. = Cooperman and Paulson.
MSF INVESTMENTS:: Lahiem
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MSF INVESTMENTS:: Alibaba synergies will be a plus too. Lahiem
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MSF INVESTMENTS:: Lahiem
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Andrew Shapiro:: @retail I have printed out the article for future reading but haven't got to it yet. thanks
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razz88:: Why not just buy the one that is $43 instead of the one that is $86 ?